Alternative Technical Templates.

[tonymand]

Yes Josh - did you take it?

[tonymand]

Exited this at be. Still further upside by the looks of it

[jlmac27]

I got in that trade also.I seen it going bad, but fell in love with the trade and should have got out earlier.O'well,that is how you learn I guess. Been beating myself up all day about it.(that emotional tie to money)But at least I am using very small lots.YTou can learn a lot from just a couple of dollars.What is your take on the EUR/JYP anyone?

[mustang]

James says he looks at the 60sma on the 1hr chart to get an idea of the days direction and then trades the 15min chart, on that basis the price could go anywhere as the 60sma is pretty well horizontal so I stayed out for that reason. I suppose that approach filters some of the signals, I personally use the 60sma on the 5min chart as a further confirmation to trade or not.

[jlmac27]

Look DD more pics!!Like I said in the last post .The trade went against me,I feel I jumped in to ealry also.I find it a fine line between letting the position develop,and getting in to late.I guess that comes with screen time and seeing these trades develop over and over again.Any ways I was looking at the 1H eur/jyp and got this out of it.Stochs are coming down bit,but with room to advance up.The past week we have seen a bounce of the 60sma,along with the trendline.Maybe we are heading north?To break this damn resistance level!

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by mustang

James says he looks at the 60sma on the 1hr chart to get an idea of the days direction and then trades the 15min chart, on that basis the price could go anywhere as the 60sma is pretty well horizontal so I stayed out for that reason.

That was a wise play. Prices are stagnant & very trappy.

jlmac: oscillators at the best of times are impotent, but in these conditions they're highly dangerous animals to rely upon.

EURJPY has an upper channel of potential supply to negotiate atop here @ 160 - 161.50 should it break to the upside. It hasn't tackled that zone adequately enough yet. Whether compound sales activity will overcome any bullish bias remains to be seen.

155.50, a secondary base & the January lows will harbour demand from stop plays on trips south from current levels.

[volatility]

Hi Tess & Jocelyn

You've mentioned earlier on this thread the advantages of compounding when the move goes your way. If possible, would you be able to suggest how you might do it with the current down move of the EURJPY or GBPJPY?

When you compound, do you place on the same amount as your earlier trade or reduce the amount?

The reason I'm asking is that compounding makes sense to me when you find you're in a strong move but I wouldn't know how or when to compound!

Thanks

[Jocelyn]

Hello volatility,

Sure, no problem.

We go thru the same preparation & analysis for compounding a position as we do for the initial entry.

It has to stack up & stand on it’s own two feet, therefore the conditions are no different to those in any other potential trade.

We have slightly different criteria for each pair according to the aims of the original trade & the unique personality of the pair we’re engaged in, but the generics are very similar.

Tess & her little gang work primarily off the Daily & 240min timeframes. Those are their template workstations, therefore the guts of the analysis & prep emanate from there.

Basically, we look to engage on & around area’s of supply & demand which are highlighted on those references.

By that I mean we’re seeking a value entry on a test and/or failure of a previous level which attracted decent attention.

As an example, if you look at your Daily chart of EURJPY you’ll see that the recent zone @ 159.60 highlighted a prev area of busy activity stretching back to 1st quarter of 2007?

It was hustled last summer (from underneath) & again during the fall (from above). It’s what we like to term as a flip zone. A fulcrum which is likely to once again welcome the attention of both Bulls & Bears.

Drilling down to the 240min reference, will offer a closer view of the activity playing out at this junction. You can see from the action (Nov thru Dec) that it was testing demand & forming a solid base.

The move up toward 166.0 during late Dec was labored & lacked intent (the small, close knit bar prints). But look at the bearish bar prints on the way back down after Xmas. Sure, this was on the back of light volumes, but the negative Fundamentals were playing their part too.

Again, we were back at the much visited supply-demand camp. This time the overwhelming fundamental flows were favoring the downside & the Euro Bulls were unable to overcome the strong supply building during early Janusry.

These are typical scenario’s we look for when planning to compound positions. Low(er) risk, reasonable reward opportunities where we can place our emergency exits at clear, defineable technical junctures & compute our upside potential to the left of the chart.

At the end of the day, it’s an ass covering exercise. We don’t know how successful the move is going to be, neither do we know how far prices are going are going to travel. What we do know however, & have absolutely full control over, is our risk!!

You gotta know your exposure to risk at every step of the way. Get that part in the can & the profits become that much simpler to manage.

We did add again at 156.80 (chart attached) on the 18th Jan off the pullback thru 156.50, but got stopped out on the 24th as prices hustled back up.

Same thing occurring again at current levels…..notice the drawn out activity underneath 159.0??…..what does it tell you?…where’s the low(er) risk punt – buy or sell (the break)??

Is this level being bid or offered?? Where are the near-term hiccups waiting & what would you expect to happen as prices begin threatening these zones?

Always plan for every possible eventuality….cover the bases. Half the battle is not getting caught with your pants down. If you get surprised by a price action move, then you haven’t planned adequately or justified your entry (position).

[volatility]

Hi Jocelyn

Thank you very much for your reply. Really appreciated and reminding me of some of the things I learned earlier but have let slip.

One other question?

I think it was Tess who mentioned earlier in the thread about squeezing a few pips out of the market mid week in that period between the NY close and the Tokyo open.

I've often gazed despairingly at the screen during this time thinking "there's a reasonable move going on here and I don't know how to trade it!"

For example there was an immediate 70 pip drop in the EURJPY at today's NY close.

What do you/Tess look for when considering a quick trade during this time?

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by volatility

I think it was Tess who mentioned earlier in the thread about squeezing a few pips out of the market mid week in that period between the NY close and the Tokyo open.

For example there was an immediate 70 pip drop in the EURJPY at today's NY close.

What do you/Tess look for when considering a quick trade during this time?

You're welcome.

Hmmm, can't say I can recall to what relevance that comment was relating to?! I don't dispute the reference, just can't fathom in what context it might have been mentioned - could you maybe locate it & haul it up here as a tagged quote?

We're not usually too active in the "doldrums" to be honest. The lag between NY & Tokyo can suffer awfully insipid volumes at times, & you need to be very careful price doesn't lull you in & bite you on the ass.

Once Tokyo fires up (especially on the Yen instruments), that's a different ball game, & if opps show themselves, then sure we'll have a sniff where appropriate.

I wouldn't have traded that little shimmy you mentioned to be honest. It would have taken me/us by surprise sprinting out of the traps the way it did.

The pullback would have presented a playable opportunity however. Particularly as it hustled the prev floor of that mini consol range @ 156.15/20.

They're key set ups which reveal themselves with consistant regularity as prices begin getting bullied around inside & outsdie these supply-demand zones.

You have everything lining up in your favor (dominant trend...clear range boundaries...confirmatory price action etc) for a low risk-higher reward trigger.

Those are the babies you need to keep close quarters on

On a sidenote; If I were you, & you're just beginning to get to grips with these instruments? I'd stick to trading the higher volume shifts. London & the overlap to New York are your high energy timezones to engage on the majors & popular pairs!

Keep life simple, don't complicate things unecessarily.