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[tonymand]

Originally Posted by specta

Hi!

That long rising candle after the rebound was a news candle. I personally would have stayed away from that trade you mentioned. What do you say?

I see you guys trade the YEN pairs too. Do you open positions on two pairs paralelly and split risk, or just stick to the one that looks the best?

thanks

1. No major news today as far as I am concerned
2. This is not a short term trade with target in the 162 area, so news volatility irrelevant
3. Most news (interest rates aside) are not trend changing
4. An entry more than half an hour before news would only be compromised if looking to scalp (a waste of time and money in my view)
5. Even if news occasionally takes you out of a good trade you can get back in and unless there is some kind of bias operating its going to give an equal number of boost to your other trades


No, personally i do not split across pairs and dont see how this can reduce risk

[specta]

Originally Posted by tonymand

1. No major news today as far as I am concerned
2. This is not a short term trade with target in the 162 area, so news volatility irrelevant
3. Most news (interest rates aside) are not trend changing
4. An entry more than half an hour before news would only be compromised if looking to scalp (a waste of time and money in my view)
5. Even if news occasionally takes you out of a good trade you can get back in and unless there is some kind of bias operating its going to give an equal number of boost to your other trades


No, personally i do not split across pairs and dont see how this can reduce risk

1. There were 2 german news with medium importance at that time (according to forexfactory)
3. Indeed! my mistake. im pretty new to this but now as i recall price always pulled back to the previous trend after an opposite news effect
4. I agree. Scalping is way too exhausting compared to other trading styles of forex.


By splitting risk i meant that in case you open a position on two congruent pairs you have to split that 3% risk (or whatever you use) between them, considering the two positions as one.
But then, i guess you never open positions on lets say EY and GY in the same time if both look good.

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by specta

1. There were 2 german news with medium importance at that time (according to forexfactory)
3. Indeed! my mistake. im pretty new to this but now as i recall price always pulled back to the previous trend after an opposite news effect
4. I agree. Scalping is way too exhausting compared to other trading styles of forex.


By splitting risk i meant that in case you open a position on two congruent pairs you have to split that 3% risk (or whatever you use) between them, considering the two positions as one.
But then, i guess you never open positions on lets say EY and GY in the same time if both look good.

Its a good idea to get used to following news yourself and make a decision about what is really affecting the market. This changes over time. FF makes a good job of estimating this but experience is the best teacher. Of the German releases only IFO seems to move the market much and that hasnt happened recently so I prefer to ignore it. Of course occasionally it will bite me! A news release pushing against the main trend is often a good point to get into the trend and I will use this on occasions. I follow news closely as we all have to but rarely trade it directly. I know what you meant regarding splitting but this does not reduce risk which is a complex concept you may need to do more work on. In any case it would be rare for more than 1 pair to give an equally strong signal at the same time. I now give preference to the EY trade over any other options for this week. I took half at the initial thrust off the retest, added a lot on the 78.6 retrace and took half of that this morning at the threatened double top so I have banked 4R so far and have a full lot riding at breakeven

[tonymand]

Nice new high this morning so still all set for 162.30 and hopefully beyond. Given the established trend with the daily up since the 500 point candle on 22 Jan and the 4H and 15 min both up you might look to a good retracement on the 15 min to get in although personally I would now wait to see what happens at 162.30. Again we may have a turnback and short or a break and retest allowing us a further long although bear in mind we are now 900 pips into this run on the daily and we are in the 78.6 retracement area for the last downleg. As always the ambiguity makes this challenging and fascinating to say the least

[tonymand]

This is certainly being better behaved than the bucking broncho ride on the GY and this is another important lesson. With the position on GY newly opened getting out at a minimum of break even was important. However with EY we have been in the trade several days and already banked substantial profits. We can therefore heed Jocelyns advice about giving the pairs room and also recall earlier lessons about the increased volatility at these areas. GU also reacted dramatically last night off its 4H resistance (there is a message here!!). The 78.6 retrace last night on H1 gave the opportunity to load up further on the EY trade and this morning, again at the high I have taken off half that position. My stop was below the swing low for this new position (although using the IB technique would just have worked and allowed a substantially bigger trade size). So we have banked another R, so now up 5R on this trade with 1.5 lots now riding (half the initial plus half of each addition). All we are doing is as much as possible load up on the dips and lighten on the peaks. This is 2 successive 78.6 retraces on the hourly so that has really helped this trade along.

[jlmac27]

Well Tony,
Let's see if I am right on this.I appreciate the patience with my slow journey through this.It looks as if we are headed back down? Can you agree with this.I am planning on getting into this trade very soon here.Pics attached

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

Well Tony,
Let's see if I am right on this.I appreciate the patience with my slow journey through this.It looks as if we are headed back down? Can you agree with this.I am planning on getting into this trade very soon here.Pics attached

Well I am still committed long as I am trading this very clear uptrend on the 4H. Volumes are low this time of day and with a divergence you then need your entry signal to act on it. If you are trading a lower timeframe and looking to get in on a retracement of the longer term trend then sure that could work well and if you happen to catch the turn of the longer trend then could be excellent. My only discomfort with the long position is that the GY has turned down with a second rejection at the R and a trendline break. If I was looking for a short might be more tempted to do it there although GY has not been good to me this week!

[jlmac27]

Yes that is where I was going with it. Was going to catch a few pips on a retrace.In your opinoin do you perfer to catch these retraces after they happen(On the way back up)In other words always trade with the trend.

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

Yes that is where I was going with it. Was going to catch a few pips on a retrace.In your opinoin do you perfer to catch these retraces after they happen(On the way back up)In other words always trade with the trend.

Depends really. If I see a good set up I will usually take it. There will usually be some longer TF trend against it. However once in a trade I dont try and trade it back and forth. I find it too psychologically taxing. In other words once out of this long I will usually stand aside to assess my next move although like everything in life there are exceptions. Just remember we are not at a key turning point at the moment so if you do jump in stay tight on it and have a clear plan of campaign

[Tess]

Originally Posted by mustang

If there is anything I've learnt from your thread it's to go with the flow!

That which appears easy or simple is quite often the hardest thing to implement