Alternative Technical Templates.

[specta]

Ther was a nasty jump o the Yens out of nowhere lately. Did any of you guys see that coming?

[JimmyMac]

If you mean the move up on Yen crosses at the U.S Open? it wasn't out of nowhere or a surprise move, no.

Eastern European, Mid East & local (UK & European) Banks & Fund houses were on the bid in large size late into the London morning & early New York trade. Not only was it all over the wires, but visible on your technical charts all morning (displayed via the higher low steps on your intraday chart).

Euro was given a lift on the back of the cross activity to all time highs too.

When you see this type of price action forming, followed by a powerful spike through layers of s&r it's usually a heads up that serious money is on the ticket.

[specta]

Thanks Jimmy!

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

Eastern European, Mid East & local (UK & European) Banks & Fund houses were on the bid in large size

Wher can I get such information in advance?

[Jocelyn]

You won't get the information in advance specta.

Jim, Tessa & colleagues spend a lot of their day speaking to desks, ferreting around on the quality newswires, picking up on info filtering through the squawks & generally sticking their noses into places they shouldn't

Often, as you see price beginning to hold up around a particular level or zone, and/or coiling up preparing to make a move, you can more or less tell it's getting ready to spring out.

That's where a good appreciation & understanding of support-resistance & supply-demand can come in handy. If the behaviour is occuring on & around a clear previous level of activity, it's a good sign players still consider the level important.

If the level is attracting heavy attention (by way of top tier Banks, Funds, CTA's etc) then the odds of a clean breakout or aggressive follow through are usually increased.

[kagein]

When trading using support and resistance lines, would it be best to execute your trades based on the particular trigger your using on the lower timeframes?

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by kagein

When trading using support and resistance lines, would it be best to execute your trades based on the particular trigger your using on the lower timeframes?

It's entirely your call George. If you're plotting a s&r line or area from your 4 hour or 1 hour reference, then price is going to react & move away from it at some point, yeah?

Price doesn't distinguish between a 240min chart and a 1min or tick chart. Only we recognize the differing timeframe references. Price will simply make it's footprint & carry on regardless.

If you possess a trusted & tested set-up or trigger which signals you in via the 1min or 5min chart at or on a hard support & resistance level, then as far as your trade plan is concerned it's a valid trade.

[Mr Average]

Hi all,

As a novice who's trying to learn and work at the same time, I don't really have much in the way of advice to give or experience to share, which is why I'm an infrequent poster, but an avid reader - the regular posters on this thread have really improved my learning curve. Many thanks.

Anyhow, after my first 10 weeks seriously trading using the basic tenets in this thread, I finally have some feedback to share. Whether it's useful or not, I don't know.

So what have I found?

I've found I'm not a natural at this game. Luckily though, as a freelance writer, I'm able to work my trading around my real job, so it doesn't really matter that I'm not going to make my fortune trading (or writing ).

My goal, at the start, was to achieve an average of 2R per week. A reasonable goal, I think. And at the end of my first 10-week yardstick, I managed a bit more than 1.5R per week. Hardly brilliant, but not bad. I've made back the money I spent on books and experimenting and generally making mistakes previously.

My worst run was two consecutive losing trades.

I averaged 4 trades per week (I only focus on GU, EU, EY and GY), although I missed quite a few due to my aforementioned real job.

I had more winners than losers (25W, 10L, 5BE).

And in retrospect, like so many other newbies, I exited my winners too early, so I think I need to pace myself better, which will no doubt mean forfeiting my more-winners-than-losers stats.

Interestingly, I found that divergence increased my success rate remarkably (of my 25 winners, 17 had divergence as confirmation at an S/R level).

Likewise, when an S/R level was on or near a 00 level and displayed divergence, the success rate improved again. No surprises there then - the more confirmation, the higher the probability of success. Duh!

And that's about it. Hardly earth-shattering results and no real insights beyond what Tess, Tony, Jocelyn, et al have generously shared, but hopefully some encouraging proof in the pudding for other novices like me.

Think it's time I shut up now

[Tess]

Congratulations Mr Average. That’s a pretty impressive set of stats to be going on with.

If you can maintain that degree of progress throughout varying market conditions over a longer period of time, then you won’t have too many complaints.

Whether you realize it yet or not, much of your initial success stems from the discipline displayed in your trading strategy. You’ve unearthed a method of market observation which suits your style & psychology. More importantly, it’s based around simple, repetative market behaviour. That kind of sensible market observation sure makes life a lot easier when attempting to deliver a trading plan which stands a chance of delivering ongoing profit.

you really now need to continue with it over a longer time period to satisfy yourself that it works for you & it also stands up across a selection of differing market conditions.

As long as you stay loyal to your risk (account protection-money management etc) parameters then you’ll be better placed to judge the potential longevity of this particular strategy play.

If it holds up to that consistent measure, then not only will your confidence in applying it increase, but it will also save you an awful amount of (lost) time hopping back & forth amongst the crap & crud masquerading as “trading system gold dust” out there.

If the next 10 months matches the first 10 weeks, then you'll really have something to begin getting excited about

Keep the discipline going & enjoy yourself....& keep everyone posted on your progress.

[tonymand]

Like Tess I think these are really excellent stats so very well done Mr A. Glad the thread has helped to guide you along the way. Incidentally a 1.5R return per week is not in the least bit shabby. Hopefully this gives other newly beginning traders hope that this can indeed be done successfully no matter what obstacles (job etc) may get in the way

[Mr Average]

Originally Posted by Tess

Keep the discipline going & enjoy yourself....& keep everyone posted on your progress.

Thanks for the encouragement and advice guys. I feel like I’ve made progress, thanks in no small part to your posts, but I’m keen to maintain it. In the short-term I think that means learning to manage winning trades better, as I mentioned.

I think this is more of a psychological hurdle than anything else. For instance, I’m now comfortable exiting losing trades at my pre-defined stop without a second thought, and without affecting my approach to the next trading opportunity, something I struggled with last year. Now, I think I need to apply the same pragmatic approach to staying with winning trades for longer – at the moment I seem to find reasons to take profits earlier than I intended, even when I know I shouldn’t. So that’s my next goal: to get into the habit of setting pre-defined profit targets (like my stops) and leaving them where they are.