Alternative Technical Templates.

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by kagein

As retail traders, do we have to be more or less aware of this kind of activity from prop traders?

it would be in your interests to know when these guy's are active for sure. What they do affects the levels which you're seeking to profit from.

weeks end, months end & quarter end are natural profit & position balancing periods for the big hitters. The (retail) brokers that you utilize, & their prop traders, will be engaged in the same zones & levels that these guy's operate in. By that very virtue, it affects you too.

wouldn't it be beneficial in some small way to assist in maybe understanding why a particular level is generating intense interest? or why a certain price popping around a hot zone is impacting on your stops or limit level?

it might not affect you at all, if so then cool. But just be aware of when these occasions roll around.

Half the battle out there is preparation.

[tonymand]

Hi George - as discussed re trade management yesterday

[Tess]

Back in familair territory again huh? I've snagged the chart from Wednesday morning & sat it alongside today's offering to highlight the consistancy of these ebb & flow price journey's.

It's no surprise they stutter & splutter when they re-visit previous zones of minor & major fulcrum activity. These occurances allow us the luxury of gathering the relevant information (fundamental as well as technical) in order to better plan out next move.

Be that based upon our favorite technical set-up or maybe a change in sentiment etc.

Some of you will no doubt have spied the technical pattern visible on the 60min & smaller timeframe?

Head & Shoulder patterns are deemed a bearish warning sign. Certainly the inability to hold & build upon the near-term s&r level of 2.0100 renders Cable suspect to follow thru sales.

I guess all this type of ongoing analysis can assist someway in prepping your favorite set-up's & strategy plays.

[johnnykanoo]

Tess and Tony I want you guys to know i love when you throw a chart or two up there. It makes me feel more confident about my analysis when I see it on your charts too. Tess I saw the head and shoulders too does that mean it will show up on the larger charts soon (fractal type thing)?
have a nice weekend guys.

[JimmyMac]

it's there Johnny on the 4 hour example through a good part of this month. I've pinched one of her templates to highlight it for you.

quite frankly, it's a bit of a messy half hearted affair on this timeframe, but it does focus the weak intent on & around her support & resistance camps, especially 2.0220.

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up. They're not usually ones for paying any attention to chart patterns & such. If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

but I guess it addresses your your question about mirror images across the timeframes.

[tonymand]

Just to add to Jimmymacs contribution if you move out to the daily (I know its not too clear) but you at least get the idea of some bearishness. JM pointed out the 4H head and shoulders but we can see here that we have broken the daily trendline and failed on a retest from the underside. The level we are at now (9957) is a strong one and if this fails to hold then 9650, 9500 and 9400 come into view as key determinants of direction over the next few sessions and all providing trading opportunities. There seems to be a growing sense of problems within housing and banking in the UK and the likelihood of a cut in rates is growing so downside pressure wouldnt be unexpected. Having said that playing with 2 weak currencies may not be as profitable as switching to the Euro and Yen pairs and playing the stronger currencies against the weaker ones, just a thought. A final thought. If you check my levels with JMs they are close but not exact. This is the nature of the beast. As T and J have said many times we are looking at zones of interest not exact levels. All you need now is a clear cut, well tried, tested and understood strategy to exploit price action as these things come into view. For me a further fall in this pair followed by a retest and fail at 9957 would certainly have me interested in the downside. Equally if this holds to the upside then a runback to 2.0100 looks reasonable and then perhaps a fall from there. In any case just make sure you have a plan whichever way it goes

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up. They're not usually ones for paying any attention to chart patterns & such. If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

How much not to tell them.


tonymand;

That about sums it up, there really isn't much else to throw in that pot.

I particularly like your comment bout trading the strong v/s the weak. You'll definitely get a lot more bang for your buck taking that point of view.

They're beginning to price in a couple more UK rate reductions towards 4th Quarter. The UK forward numbers aren't generating a whole lot of confidence out there at the moment. That alone will weigh heavy on Sterling.

But the most opportunistic play is always to sniff out the weakest potential currency v/s the strongest & look to get onboard at the premium level

[Tess]

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up.

If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

ha ha ha, I should be ok as long as you two keep your mouths firmly buttoned.

But the "point" being it's continued to soften, so folks could have used either option (the regular s&r intent...or the pattern confirmation) to leg in on a continuation move.

Still displaying weakness into this mornings action with that next support camp down @ 9775 beginning to whistle it's welcome.

[tonymand]

And just to add a chart to Tess' comments. There was indeed a further fall at the open, a rechallenge and then enough bearish signals to hop on board not too long before the Europe open. I didnt trade this but took the GY instead after the 78.6 retrace on the hourly

[Tess]

I compiled these charts before I saw Tony's offering. But it's well worth mentioning the fact that if any of you guy's are using oscillators to assist in guaging entry/profit-takes/exits etc, then this type of price action can help you to filter out the false (oscillator) signals.

When prices are moving quite aggressively in one particular direction, use the ebbs & flows to hone down your entries in tandem with your favorite price aid.

Doesn't matter whether it's Stochasitcs, RSI, CCI etc. If price is falling thru these peak-trough steps, then you really only want to be looking out for stochs etc as they print an overbought signal & leg in short with whatever price trigger you utilize. Ignore the "long" signals being highlighted via the oscillator.

It'll save you a whole lot of pain & lost pips.

Anyhow, here's the confluence timeframes (240..60 & 15m) focusing this mini bid zone down here on the Cable, where we can exapct a little turbulance.

No need for the shorts to panic or start rushing for the exits quite yet if you're already positioned.

Just watch & obey the natural flow of the peak-trough behaviour & only fully exit when the price action tells you it's found sufficient demand & printed another temporary? bottom. The first signs of that momentum shift will be the printing of higher lows & highs on this smaller (15m) timeframe reference down here.