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  #781 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 02:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by condor View Post

One question, before everyone disappears from this thread:
Tess, are you aiming for trades that last 2 to 3 days, or do you usually exit sooner than that?

Many entries have been deleted, so it's frustrating not to know what I've missed. I'm only about 1/3 of the way through the thread.
Yes condor, a good percentage of our various account activity is geared toward medium term positioning.

If you think about it, there are 2 elements of the equation that require a slightly looser grip than others.

You can control your risk at outset & you also got a pretty clear idea as to the initial entry criteria & maybe the ideal location(s) for any compound or add-in stakes along the route if the move begins to mature.

The 2 flies in the ointment are usually the speed & behavior (aggressive or passive) of the move + the initial & ongoing destination.

Time doesn’t really come into it as a basis for profit potential. You could open & close a 400-pip deal in a matter of a few hours if the psychology is intense out there & your trailing procedure takes you out as per the strategy parameters etc.

On the flip side, that same 400 pip deal might stretch out to 3 days if the landscape is nervy, spiky or a little on the cautious side. Get my drift?

At the end of the day it generally comes down to your strategy model, the risk exposure you’re adopting for that particular deal, & your trailing or profit taking mechanism.

Those elements will change according to the behavior & structure of the price action at the time of execution & your specific aims & reasons for the deal.

Most professional players will feed or compound into a run. So, at the point of entry (particularly if it’s some kind of breakout play), they’ll sling out a feeder stake to test the waters. If the price action pulls back & then plays out ok, & the move attracts decent participation, they’ll compound into it as it opens out (via pullbacks) until they aggregate their full exposure or positional % for that trade. That’s commonly known as “adding to a winner”

If the initial entry washes out or springs back inside the breakout trigger & fakes, then they haven’t lost anything apart from an opportunity.

Most amateurs adopt the opposite scenario. They either go all in from the outset & then panic as/if price begins pulling back, assuming they’ve been mugged…..or they sit there like rabbits in the headlights & compound into the move as it continually shifts against them. They get some strange notion into their head that they’re simply jostling for a better average position or “hedging” their exposure. Never mind the costs of excessive spreads/commissions/account costs etc, LOL

That’s called “adding to a losing position” & not only begins to chip away at their psychology tolerances but will eventually results in a margin call.

Ps: the recent deletions in the thread haven’t affected the technical or core information content at all. She merely tidied up the off topic material.

Pps: I’ll be around to answer & sweep up any tail end questions & queries until the middle of next week. Tess is now on vacation until Thanksgiving & Jos is headed back home Stateside tonight for a few weeks.

If I’m not able to get to the thread, I’ll pass my login details across to one of the fella’s here & they'll wrap it up.
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  #782 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 02:24 AM
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Oh, one other item I forgot to mention:
The private forum is being set up specifically for clients & co-investors of the firm only. Obviously due to the material & content there will be strict monitoring & access procedures in place at all times.

Sorry to disappoint those who enquired about possible inclusion.
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  #783 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 02:56 AM
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I really hope someone can take over Tess, Jocelyn and Jimmy places in this thread. Hope tonymand and daydreamer65 can continue this thread on behalf on tess, jocelyn and jimmy.
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  #784 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 03:13 AM
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Tess and Jocelyn were going to leave a year ago so we have been fortunate to have their input over the last 12 months. Of course it is sad to see them and Jimmymac go and I doubt we will see the like of them again on a public forum such as this. However this thread will remain here and contains all the ideas necessary to build an effective strategy around that suits you. How many times do people need to hear the refrain of throw away the indicators, concentrate on supply and demand and leg up only into winning positions. Exactly how you execute is of course one of the things you have to design or borrow from another thread. You also have to be realistic and warnings such as that recently from Jocelyn that in reality beating the professionals at their own game is something that will not be achieved by many and much money and heartache can be avoided if people recognised their unsuitability for this at an earlier stage of their trading career

I have not posted much recently because I am busy but also because I have nothing new to add. I am also not actively trading currently which means I could only offer a view in retrospect which is always easy and totally meaningless.
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  #785 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 07:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonymand View Post
Tess and Jocelyn were going to leave a year ago so we have been fortunate to have their input over the last 12 months. Of course it is sad to see them and Jimmymac go and I doubt we will see the like of them again on a public forum such as this. However this thread will remain here and contains all the ideas necessary to build an effective strategy around that suits you. How many times do people need to hear the refrain of throw away the indicators, concentrate on supply and demand and leg up only into winning positions. Exactly how you execute is of course one of the things you have to design or borrow from another thread. You also have to be realistic and warnings such as that recently from Jocelyn that in reality beating the professionals at their own game is something that will not be achieved by many and much money and heartache can be avoided if people recognised their unsuitability for this at an earlier stage of their trading career

I have not posted much recently because I am busy but also because I have nothing new to add. I am also not actively trading currently which means I could only offer a view in retrospect which is always easy and totally meaningless.
But this is a really good thread created by tess. I am really sad they will be leaving babypips but like what tony had mentioned, the knowledge they imparted to us will always be here for newcomers to pick up. I am able to create my strategies using the templates taught here. I wish them all the best in their future ventures.

By the way, if I execute any future trades using the template taught here, I will post here and try to prevent this thread from being deserted.
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  #786 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
But this is a really good thread created by tess. I am really sad they will be leaving babypips but like what tony had mentioned, the knowledge they imparted to us will always be here for newcomers to pick up. I am able to create my strategies using the templates taught here. I wish them all the best in their future ventures.

By the way, if I execute any future trades using the template taught here, I will post here and try to prevent this thread from being deserted.
Nice one Ray,

Funnily enough I was all set to start posting here this week. I'm about to start trading the james ib/ob system mainly because it seems to have a) a great mentor in james and b) it is a relatively easy clutter free trigger for beginners to use when first learning to engage the marketplace.

What has also become evident is the absolute importance of this thread in regards to it's attention to identifying the trend, s&r levels and their importance to when we trade, as well as studying price action and the associated physcological aspects of trading these set-ups.

Unfortunately I'm only up to page 59 of this thread starting backwards. It takes a while mainly because all the stuff Jocelyn, Tess and JimmyMac have offered is valuable advice you want to take time to digest.

Anyways I've been pottering around with the ib system in demo for about 4 weeks making around 100-150 pips but mostly through good luck rather than good management trading, all sorts of pairs and I know that can't last.

I chose this mainly to get a feel for the sofware, how to execute bids, placing stop losses, pip calculation and so forth.

Anyways back to my rather long and dliuted point; from this week onwards I will be concentrating solely on one pair.

As recommended that pair will be the GBP/USD

I would be really interested in any feedback other babypipers can offer on the pair this coming week especially in regards to the set-ups they will be looking for and to how they will be looking to use the great tools and advice offered on this particular thread, to trade this pair.

A clarification I have is where does one tend to set the s&r line for the week?

I believe either Jocelyn or Tess say they go back to the previous quarter.

Dropping back to the 1 hour and 1 day timeframes it looks like we're in a downtrend.

So plotting my s&r zones will be the first step to me identifying the most solid times to pull my ib/ob trigger.

And also what other factors will traders be looking at/for this week in regards to their play on this pair?

Lastly any thoughts on the the movements of the last month? Prices of the GBP/USD have dipped to their lowest of the year (Sept 11th apart) in the recent week and my question is how low could we see them go and what tools would we look to incorporate to give us the best chance of identifying when the obverall downward trend on this pair will begin to reverse back?

My guess would be previous levels of S&R on the journey down can help us on the way back up? But as I say that's a guess, still so much to learn.

If we all club together and concentrate on the different pieces we've each gleaned we can start to bring all the clues that Jess, Jimmy and Jocelyn have left in this thread and together start forming some decent trigger pulling devices of our own.

It's a bit like a detective novel, all the answers lie within the threads or even a game of Cluedo.

I'll go with Captain Mustard in the library with you guessed it.....a candlestick!
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  #787 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
I really hope someone can take over Tess, Jocelyn and Jimmy places in this thread. Hope tonymand and daydreamer65 can continue this thread on behalf on tess, jocelyn and jimmy.
I am glad I stopped by. Now I know why certain individuals are getting away with being rude.
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  #788 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 03:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhops View Post
I would be really interested in any feedback other babypipers can offer on the pair this coming week especially in regards to the set-ups they will be looking for and to how they will be looking to use the great tools and advice offered on this particular thread, to trade this pair.

A clarification I have is where does one tend to set the s&r line for the week?

I believe either Jocelyn or Tess say they go back to the previous quarter.

So plotting my s&r zones will be the first step to me identifying the most solid times to pull my ib/ob trigger.
Hi Folks,
My name is Art Krantz.
Jim has left me with his log-in details to babysit the content in his absense.

Bhops;
Best advice I can give is to take your time to peruse the information. All the basics are here.
It might appear daunting at first glance but the thing is, don’t make it any more complicated than it is.

If you or anyone else is approaching this type of analysis & trade planning for the first time, then ensure you open up your technical chart & start with a clean slate at your preferred template timeframe.

If that’s a 15 minute timeframe then open her up & scroll out as far as you can to get as much data on it as possible. You’re looking for area’s that attracted reactive price action which resulted in either continuation or reversal behavior.

Mark them up on your charts & use them as visual markers next time price revisits that reaction zone. These levels are your watch zones.



Once you got some close quarter levels marked out, go up a timeframe or two & drill in a timeframe or two (dependant on how fast your template timeframe is), & see if any of your close quarter zone match up with previous area’s of conflict. (Following chart is the hourly)

Chances are you’ll witness one or two similar area’s of previous cross currents. These require special attention next time around.

Remember what the guys have discussed re; dominant trends? Don’t forget to focus on the area of least resistance:- always try execute in line with the superior order flow. Don’t swim against a tough tide.



Watch your swing levels (previous highs & lows). They’re your first point of reference if mini-trends are going to reverse.
Remember what they’ve said about looking for these zones to be re-tested once price has moved through a previous swing high-low zone?

You’re looking for orderly peak-trough behavior to offer you a low risk, higher potential reward leg up into a trade.



Like I say, it’s all in here. As you progress through the thread, print off pages that spark your interest & look for live occurances of their examples. Have the examples in front of you & practice identifying similar behavior on your favorite pairs.
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  #789 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 05:09 PM
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Art Krantz again:

Whenever you open up your platform ready for a days work there are key prompts you need to be very aware of.

1) Your downside potential reaction zones.
2) Your upside potential reaction zones.
3) Is price adhering to an obvious trending rhythm on your normal working timeframe template & at least one timeframe higher, or is price contained within clearly identifiable range parameters.
4) Are there any potential market moving economic releases due for release, which could affect the price action on your favored pair(s).


Repeat this procedure every day

To check your near term & further out downside potential reaction zones you’re going to require to take a look at the Weekly chart to reference that criteria on the GBPUSD pair. Once you got them identified, you can leave them on your chart for future reference.



Now you need to reference your close quarter or most recent upside potential reaction zones. You don’t need to go too far up the ladder. Just take it easy & mark up the next couple levels. If price penetrates & consolidates those zones, you can mark up the next tiers & so forth.

Don’t clutter up your charts unnecessarily. You’ll only confuse yourself.

These are the potential reaction points you’re most interested in to begin setting up your specific triggers on.



Remember to pay attention to your nearest swing points (up & down from the current price) as these will offer you your first indication of the price potential (continuation or reversal) as it tests out the supply & demand.

If you’re a rookie then I’d strongly advise you pay very close attention to any data releases which print during the London & New York data runs & stay out of the market until you’re more familiar with their behavior. Get caught on the wrong side of one of those left hooks & you’ll be nursing a sore account for many a month.

Last edited by JimmyMac; 10-05-2008 at 05:11 PM.
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  #790 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2008, 06:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyMac View Post
Art Krantz again:

Whenever you open up your platform ready for a days work there are key prompts you need to be very aware of.

1) Your downside potential reaction zones.
2) Your upside potential reaction zones.
3) Is price adhering to an obvious trending rhythm on your normal working timeframe template & at least one timeframe higher, or is price contained within clearly identifiable range parameters.
4) Are there any potential market moving economic releases due for release, which could affect the price action on your favored pair(s).


Repeat this procedure every day

To check your near term & further out downside potential reaction zones you’re going to require to take a look at the Weekly chart to reference that criteria on the GBPUSD pair. Once you got them identified, you can leave them on your chart for future reference.



Now you need to reference your close quarter or most recent upside potential reaction zones. You don’t need to go too far up the ladder. Just take it easy & mark up the next couple levels. If price penetrates & consolidates those zones, you can mark up the next tiers & so forth.

Don’t clutter up your charts unnecessarily. You’ll only confuse yourself.

These are the potential reaction points you’re most interested in to begin setting up your specific triggers on.



Remember to pay attention to your nearest swing points (up & down from the current price) as these will offer you your first indication of the price potential (continuation or reversal) as it tests out the supply & demand.

If you’re a rookie then I’d strongly advise you pay very close attention to any data releases which print during the London & New York data runs & stay out of the market until you’re more familiar with their behavior. Get caught on the wrong side of one of those left hooks & you’ll be nursing a sore account for many a month.

Hi Art,

Hey thanks for taking on the void Jimmy has left.

One quick thought of other traders I'd like to echo, is the big thank you to Jimmy, Jocelyn and Tess for what they've passed on in this thread. There are people out there that would charged thousands for this kind of instruction and to have it all here on a public forum is something else really.

Art! What a way to make an entrance! Thankyou very very much. As you may have read I am only at page 60 of this thread working my way through it slowly for the first of what I'm sure will be many times.

A lot of what you posted you are right has been explained before but what made these 2posts great is that you've given me an clearly defined daily structure to go through.

Info on a thread is often a little all over the place simply because people have questions and responses to various posts.

I am in the process of collating the information and understanding it but what was frazzling my brain a little was what is the best order to put it all together.

You can sometimes end up with a 'collage' of information and while you may understand parts of it oftentimes the hardest part is bringing it into a clear cohevise structual daily plan that you can follow time after time after time until you can eat, drink and recite it in your sleep.

Now that might seem like a no brainer to you but when you're starting out with so much info going in, the hardest for me thus far has been putting that identifiable 1-2-3 step plan together. Is repitition not the master of skill?

That's why your two posts are so important to me. I now have a nice easy to follow template through which to desciminate and filter my information and a basis from which to action my decisions, the rest is now up to me.

I'm pretty determined I would have got there in the end but this has cut through a lot of the fog for me on how to put the info together and thus saved me a heap of time.

Now as I go through this thread and if I see a particularly interesting post from Tess for instance I'll understand exactly where in my daily trading plan that piece of info is best utilized, cool.

Thanks again.

Bryce (bhops)
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