Alternative Technical Templates.

[Tess]

Hi triphop,

Glad you're finding the thread informative.

Not too dissimilar to Tony's stance really.

I definitely won't step in front of a key release. If a technical alert zone happens to flash in the immediate vicinity of an entry level, & an important release is due to print, then I'll hang fire & wait to assess the reaction. Basic common sense stuff, yeah?

It very rarely occurs to be honest. When we're executing strictly intraday trades, we're either usually already positioned (& possibly partially scaled out) & primed, prior to any major UK data @ 9.30 London.

By the time any U.S data is printing, we're either out & flat for the day, or again - partially encashed & protected via our stops into the release.

When still live on larger swing type positions, data rarely impacts on our decision making process, other than to batten down, or re-adjust stops.

[Jocelyn]

Been reading a couple of threads within this section this morning, & Geppy has come up in conversation, encouraging conflicting views whether it's in buy or sell mode at current levels.

Healthy debate is what this game is all about, & how one person or group analyze & prepare their trades is of no interest to me. Conflicting views make markets, so....long live opposing views, I say

Personally, I see Geppy as a short term sell, given the failure to make fresh highs on the recent move outside the month long range zone (228.20 - 234.55).

Mid to longer term?? That greatly depends on it's behaviour as prices begin to threaten the recent 1st line support zone here (237.50-70).

The activity here will offer more clues to it's bias in my view.

238.80, it's near term swing high, will be the next potential lower top on the short term timeframes, & failure to hurdle back beyond this marker will begin to weigh on Geppy.

236.50-70, is definitely the real crux however, as that zone represents critical short-term support on the higher low leg up thru the aforementioned range break.

For those not currently positioned long this pair, maybe a shorter term outlook is more appropriate until it begins to offer further (concrete) directional bias

[Jocelyn]

The short-term sellers on this pair continue to enjoy the ride, with prices so far being resisted at 50% of the day's move (a popular level for Fib watchers), on Geppy's attempts to re-assert a bullish kickback.

As long as price remain north of 236.50-70 the higher low step (& the current longs from further back) stays genuine.

Aggressive shorters will begin staged encashments (& look to throw in the towel) on a sustained shift thru 238.30-65, as this will negate the lower high momentum on the intraday charts.

So, money is still being made by both camps inside this wide channel.

No need to begin waving the white flags from the mid-term bulls yet, & no real requirement for the short-term bears to give ground either.

If you got your dual strats well sussed, there's money to be made playing these instruments from both sides of the track

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by Jocelyn

As long as price remain north of 236.50-70 the higher low step (& the current longs from further back) stays genuine.

No need to begin waving the white flags from the mid-term bulls yet, & no real requirement for the short-term bears to give ground either.

So, the $$'s were banked from the 'fast money' brigade & prices steadied shy of the key line Bull supports at 236.50-70.

A case of, as you were....prices now back threatening the near term resistance up here at the weeks highs.

The overnight Tokyo shift maintained the higher low push from late New York trade, adding impetus to attack & push thru the upper ceiling.

If the momentum takes hold & attracts further interest at this resistance zone, it exposes the next tier ceiling zones of 241.50 & 243.0

The lower levels are clearly marked for those intent on playing any appropriate pullback 'short' runs via the faster timeframes.

[Jocelyn]

Hey there Tony

Nice trade you took on the 3 Ducks this morning I saw the set-up & reasonings on the other thread, good stuff!

Thought I'd haul up one of Tess' observation references from the 4hr timeframe.

The lower line at 2.0365 has been a flirtation zone past couple days as price bobbed back & forth under/over it's vicinity before thrusting northwards through next line pitch here at 2.0460.

We'd expect this level to be subject to a (usual) re-test. Similar to Geppy, the lower lines & zones will offer guidance on any forceful rejection of upside continuation movement.

[tonymand]

[quote=Jocelyn;25622]
Nice trade you took on the 3 Ducks this morning I saw the set-up & reasonings on the other thread, good stuff!

QUOTE]

Thanks Jocelyn. In the process now of looking at what I really want to do. What I have been doing is profitable but requires too much screen time. Never wanted to be a computer jockey and its left me tired and listless recently. Was very profitable during those huge trends but as I have previously said I was looking for something that would give me just a couple of high prob trades a week and was somewhat surprised to see it might be here on bpips all along. The 3 ducks allied to my understanding of SR zones seems to fit the bill. For instance I am all finished already tonight unless I want to catch the next leg up on GU but frankly I would rather have a night with my beautiful family. Got to be careful I dont get carried away after one trade but the rationale seems to fit my understanding of the market and the actual trades are quite often different entries into the same moves (no surprise there really). So will see. Since GY was moving at the same time and therefore confirming pound strength I took the breakout above the Asian high so its been a good night (wish I had gone for EY as well!!). Now off to the shop to satisfy my families major failing (yes you guessed - chocolate!)

[daydreamer65]

I wanted to document this trade I took today on
EUR/JPY, it just illustrates the precarious nature
of trading IMO.

There is an inside bar (IB) & the stochs have just
turned but just above 20, also the candle is in the
middle of the bollinger bands, there is also a minor
resistance line at 165.40ish.

I decided to take the trade at 165.31, with a S/L
at 165.16, T/P is normally +45 pips.

What I am trying to emphasise is how close to my
S/L this trade came, within 2 pips. As you can see
it went on to gain +78 pips, but however much we
plan sometimes.........

(wish I had gone for EY as well!!)

Wish I had gone for G/Y as well. :lol:

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by Tess

Oh you can do it all right.

If you have belief, wrapped around a sound, common sense structure - then you can do anything you choose to.

Hi Tess, that is probably what I meant by strategy and I have done a lot of thinking and reviewing this week. Your comment that I already had a strategy and later Jocelyns that I didnt have to look too far are interesting in the context of me feeling so different about it. Using you as a model you engage the market on your terms at the levels you decide are important (ie strategy). What entry set ups you then use are a different matter and probably of relatively less importance. I have the latter not the former

I now realise that I have outgrown my original trading plan and that was the issue. I had begun to realise this when talking about how many trades I wanted to do, what return etc

What I have come up with so far makes more sense to me. Essentially I prefer trading trends. The multiple timeframe strategies therefore suit me. I find the best entries at the European or London open and I have a small number of favoured pairs although I think need to be willing to expand these as performance varies. I added yen crosses when the carry trade issues started to bite and more recently euro crosses as the euro set sail for the heavens

In terms of strategy then at the Europe open and for up to a couple of hours after that I should look for the best trending pair within my area of competence and if an appropriate set up occurs trade it. I am currently excited about the 3 ducks as my set up and break of a key level my entry signal. If no trade is obvious I should take the night off. If this does not produce the 2 or 3 trades per week that I am looking for then I might look to use an IB, round number or other strategy which can equally well work in a ranging environment or for that matter trade pure price action through peaks and troughs. All of these form part of my tested toolbox

I think this is the start of having a strategy, a rationale if you will for engaging the market and within that using whichever of my tools that suit the conditions at the time

More to consider but while it may not sound much its taken a fair bit of thinking through this week to get here. The benefits so far have been immediate with 2 trades on wednesday, 1 yesterday and 1 today for a 4-0 (total return 4R) result much closer to what I have been aiming for. In fact 2.5R per month meets my dollar return aim. I have also had the last 3 nights mainly with the family and they are happier and I am refreshed so its all good. As always the feedback I have had from so many people here and in the 'real' world of traders locally has been invaluable so thanks

[droog]

Bloody good fred this!

tonymand, jocelyn and tess............do you look out for candlestick formations a la Steve Nison? I've got hold of a PDF of one of his books and am going to give it a butchers over the weekend.

cheers4now

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by droog

Bloody good fred this!

tonymand, jocelyn and tess............do you look out for candlestick formations a la Steve Nison? I've got hold of a PDF of one of his books and am going to give it a butchers over the weekend.

cheers4now

I have got 2 of his books and there is a lot of good material. A few things though. Candlesticks give you the same information as an OHLC bar chart its just that in some cases it is more visually appealing. If you look at my charts as posted you will see I use line, bar and candlestick depending on the application and aim. Candlesticks like anything else on their own mean little. However if they are occuring at critical levels then they can tell you a whole heap about what the crowd is up to. A combination therefore of candles (or bars whichever you prefer) and the larger scale action as shown by the levels on different timeframes is very revealing. After all James IB/OB technique is at its simplest a particular candle pattern. I think you will find Nison readable and sensible and I have not found a better source of information on candles so hope you enjoy