Alternative Technical Templates.

[Ray_1]

Hi bhops,

Do you mind putting a chart of your trade? It is quite hard to see where you take the trade without the chart. From what you described, it is a good trade if your reward is larger than your risk. If i am not wrong, you are trading the GBPUSD and you got out at 1.7420. I agree with you there are a support region from 1.7416 to 1.7407. So your exit at 1.7420 is correct. Just my own point of view.

[bhops]

Originally Posted by Ray_1

Hi bhops,

Do you mind putting a chart of your trade? It is quite hard to see where you take the trade without the chart. From what you described, it is a good trade if your reward is larger than your risk. If i am not wrong, you are trading the GBPUSD and you got out at 1.7420. I agree with you there are a support region from 1.7416 to 1.7407. So your exit at 1.7420 is correct. Just my own point of view.

Hi Ray,

Yes it is the GBPUSD.

Just concentrating on that pair at the moe.

How do I go about posting a chart and most importantly how can I go about drawing the diagrams on it so that i can take you through where i jumped and jumped off?

But you have described exactly what I did.

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by bhops

An ib was formed at 13.30 followed by a bearish candle.

I decided to take the trade because:

1. In the last few hours and in general over the last week after a downtrend, price hasn't been pulling back more than about 50%.

2. I was trading with the overall trend

3. My stop loss was relatively tight, a couple of pips over the previous candle to the ib

4. the trade was taking place right at the top of what had been a tight little channel over the last 6 hours.

Once the trade hit 1.74200 I was out for 38 pips because I had this as an area of support that was proving tough to crack.

Trend was the right direction, risk ratio was appropriate, and I had mapped out in my mind on my chart where some relative s&r lines were.

You’ve compiled/devised a set of rules based around common sense observations.
I’ve highlighted & underlined the most important criteria amongst your references.

If you continue to place yourself to the value side of these type of trade executions you’ll last long enough out there to amass the necessary experience & knowledge required to grow your confidence & account balance.

As long as you can locate decent risk & continue to work on the trade management aspect of your strategy, then you’re placing the odds as firmly in your favor as possible.

Well done.

Art.

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by tymen1

I see a morning star at the end of box 2 - and this correctly predicted the price action to go up for more than 10 candles!!

At the end of box 3 I see a clear piercing pattern - and accordingly the price action went up for 5 candles (good, but 10 is better, of course).

Thank you for your input.

Umm, I’m not quite sure where you get the precise target to pattern ratio from regards the candle prints, but that’s by the way.
Candles, bars or whatever one uses to interpret & gauge the order flow, are simply reflections of trader psychology. Nothing more.

Attempting to pigeon hole targets or place oneself at negative risk to cost exposure (trading against the dominant flows) is counter-productive in the long term.
Obviously, what individuals do with their own time & money is of little relevance to me, but if experience in this business has taught me one thing, it’s not to abuse dominant order flow or risk variables at any cost.

I’m not a follower or a big fan of these trading bulletin boards at all, but what I have noticed in the very short time that I’ve spent observing comments & posts (both here & briefly at one other similar venue) is the intense & almost obsessive fascination with micro-analysis that unfolds on these retail sites.

I can certainly understand where (& why) these high failure rates amongst non-professional participants emanate from.

The point I was attempting to make on that post was the fact the serious money was/is biased to the downside on the Pound. The correct market stance, from both a risk & value perspective was to continue to sell rallies, not buy support.

Those bars popping off that base at circa 1.7550 were displaying nervous, yet clear bearish psychology/behavior (confirmed by the reluctance to break back through established lower high momentum flow). To those who are able to read trader psychology and/or order flow, it merely continued to confirm the short bias.

Art.

[bhops]

Thanks for the feedback Art,

I took a second ib trade today at 18.15 for the same reasons; directional flow, a strong bear bar when the price was making eyes at the approaching 1.7650 level and a scrool back on one of my lines told me that although the price seemed headed up towards the 1.7650 level it was unlikely to break it plus the last time price touched up at that level it fell away quite sharply.

Got in at 1.75534 with my stop loss tucked way back above the candle before the ib 1.76225 soooo........I should have been prepared to give it more breathing room than I did.

However once price dropped to 1.74922 approaching 1.74800 I chickened out and took my profit.

Really I can't justify the r:r ratio there can I? Not even close.

Now it has continued dropping like a stone through the 1.7350 level in an almost carbon copy move from yesterday and I'm as sick as a a parrot (even in demo mode)

A classic case of not trusting my charts and the levels I had plotted out aye Art?

Any tips from anyone would be appreciated on how to keep yourself in a trade like this, and how to keep yourself from bailing early but I think this is more a case of practice practice practice.

[JimmyMac]

We're getting a little busy here as the morning progresses Bryce, I'll try get back later this afternoon.

Obviously, other folks can offer their own take on your queries.

Have a profitable day

[bhops]

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

We're getting a little busy here as the morning progresses Bryce, I'll try get back later this afternoon.

Obviously, other folks can offer their own take on your queries.

Have a profitable day

No problem Art,

I appreciate every post but time is money right?

Think I'll just keep half an eye on the charts now and hoof it back to page 50 of this thread (see 10 pages in the last 2 days!) and continue to read and study and cut and paste the crap out of it.

[Ray_1]

Originally Posted by bhops

Thanks for the feedback Art,

I took a second ib trade today at 18.15 for the same reasons; directional flow, a strong bear bar when the price was making eyes at the approaching 1.7650 level and a scrool back on one of my lines told me that although the price seemed headed up towards the 1.7650 level it was unlikely to break it plus the last time price touched up at that level it fell away quite sharply.

Got in at 1.75534 with my stop loss tucked way back above the candle before the ib 1.76225 soooo........I should have been prepared to give it more breathing room than I did.

However once price dropped to 1.74922 approaching 1.74800 I chickened out and took my profit.

Really I can't justify the r:r ratio there can I? Not even close.

Now it has continued dropping like a stone through the 1.7350 level in an almost carbon copy move from yesterday and I'm as sick as a a parrot (even in demo mode)

A classic case of not trusting my charts and the levels I had plotted out aye Art?

Any tips from anyone would be appreciated on how to keep yourself in a trade like this, and how to keep yourself from bailing early but I think this is more a case of practice practice practice.

Hi bhops,

If i were in your shoes, once the price moves to the 1.74800, I will move my stop loss down to 1.7500 to lock in my profits and let the trade runs. If you are trading multiple lots, close out half of your position at 1.74800, then move your remaining position stop losses to break even.

Never mind if you exit a trade early, it will be better than you losing. At least you profited from this trade, and no point feeling bad missing the big move. There are alot of signals in the market everyday, why feel bad over a single trade. Just my own point of view.

[bhops]

Originally Posted by Ray_1

Hi bhops,

If i were in your shoes, once the price moves to the 1.74800, I will move my stop loss down to 1.7500 to lock in my profits and let the trade runs. If you are trading multiple lots, close out half of your position at 1.74800, then move your remaining position stop losses to break even.

Never mind if you exit a trade early, it will be better than you losing. At least you profited from this trade, and no point feeling bad missing the big move. There are alot of signals in the market everyday, why feel bad over a single trade. Just my own point of view.

Agreed I think you have to try and take the zen approach.

Mark it down in the journal, reasons why you did it, what you did, so on and so forth and then let it go, release it out in the Forex galaxy. LOL.

I am encouraged that I only half botched it as opposed to completely botching it and trading something that completely goes in the wrong direction etc.

It's only one of about a billion mistakes in my future so I'm reasonably relaxed about it (now just half as sick as a parrot.)

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by bhops

Got in at 1.75534 with my stop loss tucked way back above the candle before the ib 1.76225 soooo........I should have been prepared to give it more breathing room than I did.

However once price dropped to 1.74922 approaching 1.74800 I chickened out and took my profit.

Now it has continued dropping like a stone through the 1.7350 level in an almost carbon copy move from yesterday and I'm as sick as a a parrot (even in demo mode)

You might want to avoid burning holes in your eyes observing, analysing & basing your conclusions on & around individual or small groups of candles/bars on micro timeframes.

Candles printing on sub hourly timeframes are merely ‘timing triggers’ at best.

The higher up the quality (timeframe) scale you go, the more time you’ll have to properly & better assess the psychology playing out at particular zones & levels on the ladder.

As has already been alluded to throughout this thread, the participants who really move the flows around on these instruments pay little or no attention to sub hourly timeframes as a reference point.

I’m not saying you can’t successfully integrate them into a profitable model, but you’ll get far more bang for your buck if your main structure & accompanying (technical) analysis is conducted via the slightly larger timeframe charts.

Basing the majority of your trading off micro timeframes with the sole intention of reducing & controlling risk is one of the biggest & most dangerous misnomers out there.

As you’re finding out to your (lost opportunity) cost, when price action butts up against increased volatility and/or periods of intense psychology, getting too close to the flames will burn your ass.

The only way you’re going to stay aboard these bucking bronco’s is to compromise.
That equates to giving your trades a little more room to not only develop, but also confirm that the current scenario still holds water.
That might require re-calibrating your position sizing to reflect a balanced risk/cost bias on your account or re-structure the way you arrive at your trade decisions.

I’ve copied this passage from Jimmy’s post (#781) on Sunday evening:

Most professional players will feed or compound into a run. So, at the point of entry (particularly if it’s some kind of breakout play), they’ll sling out a feeder stake to test the waters. If the price action pulls back & then plays out ok, & the move attracts decent participation, they’ll compound into it as it opens out (via pullbacks) until they aggregate their full exposure or positional % for that trade. That’s commonly known as “adding to a winner”

If you aim to work towards that principle when you get your account up to speed it will stand you in good stead across all trading conditions.

I’ve worked with a good number of professional traders & most pro’s that work their own money & actually use technical charts as part of their work sheet, avoid the (micro) gambling timeframes like the plague unless there’s a very good or clear reason to get dirty down there.
Generally there’s little or no value for them that far down the quality scale.

What does that tell you?

Tessa & Jocelyn have given quite a few examples of marrying up gambling (micro) triggers with higher, quality grade timeframe analysis. But don’t be fooled that they base their management structures around them.

Those two, along with their other siblings, have been exposed to this industry since they could first walk & talk. The firm we work for is run by their Parents & Uncles. Hauling that kind of experience around from an early age affords you plenty of options where trading money is concerned.

Point I’m making?
It might just pay dividends to steer a slightly different course to the majority of those folks who endorse laying your money down on these ridiculous systems and/or punting via short timeframe technical charts.

And on that note -
that’s me done with my babysitting duties. Jim is back in the saddle later tonight.

Nice to make your acquaintance. All the very best to you guys in your future endeavors. Take good care now,

Art Krantz.