yeah bucketman, I’ve missed the first signal when 20ema crossed over 50ema but thought I’d jump long on this minor pullback and aim at 94.10
CADJPY is also heading up, but stochastic hasn’t crossed below 20 yet. So I’ll cross that out.
What pair are you talking about.
Sorry I meant to quote this:
" GBPNZD is going to give a sell signal too but the daily chart shows a big bullish bar and the pair is In a uptrend also. Would it be wise to take the sell? "
I would think you would take the signal anyway??
From my point of view, the bullish trend on the daily chart is becoming flat and is going down; I entered on the trade, let’s see how it goes.
AUDUSD trade was stopped, but the rest are going pretty well (cadjpy, gbpaud, usdjpy, audjpy) and I have also other positions, usdcad and gbpjpy.
By the way, I just wondered about trading while there is no trend, I think the stochastic works very nice while a pair is not trending, but I guess it’s very different from trading with this system, I used to enter on range when the stochastic showed me an overbought/oversell, and then stopping the trade when the opposite signal appeared.
I’m actually trading the NZDJPY signal you mentioned. I entered on the first signal. There are so many good pairs that have almost complete signals you could enter. Almost all Pound pairs. USDCAD just crossed back up so you could buy that. No need to enter NZDJPY again.
I’m in the GBPNZD trade as well.
I’m curious to ask, you were stopped out of AUDUSD. where you trading the long signal or the short one. Because if you were trading audusd short like me you shouldn’t have been stopped out at all.
Hi Philip, I’ve just been reading the thread, thanks for posting the idea.
I think the below is an interesting post as well with different possibilities - is it something you use much, this kind of different timeframe combinations?
I’d imagine it could give you a little early warning system to be on the lookout for possible entries on the lower timeframe. You use the Weekly/4h combination in your example, but presumably you could use the 4h/1h combo too?
Just for example:
4h chart (EURCAD)-
1h chart-
Just wanted to mention it really as it’s quite interesting but hasn’t really been picked up beyond your original post - i don’t want to take this thread off its current track though.
cheers
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Your charts must close an hour ahead of mine Philip - as I’m not showing a cross of the 20/50 EMA on the USD/CAD yet (I still have around 50 minutes left until 4 hour candle close. Though - by the size of the current candle it probably will end up with a cross.
Hopefully for me - and a few others that are in a USDCAD short reaching the overbought area will force price back down again and we’ll breathe a little easier.
.
Hi Philip and Others,
Would like to say a big “Thankyou” have just moved my stop loss to the 127.2 zone on USD/JPY up +75 pips whatever now (sit back and relax) on my first trade with this system and many more to come, hopefully will join in with you guys as and when i can with more postings Good Luck… 
Would this be a good strategy for those of use looking to capture shorter moves of shorter duration?
The short one, but I moved my SL to BE once the fibonacci’s level 100 was hit.
Hi Philip,
I am brand spanking new to this forum, as you can see. I am NOT an FX trader; I am an equities and futures trader. I stumbled upon this thread through a Google search.
I am intrigued by your system, but by nature, I am skeptical of all systems, until sufficient back-testing is accomplished, to give a rough indication of results.
I do not have FX data to back-test, but decided to back-test 25 year’s worth of Daily DOW-30 data, to see how things fare. I am reviewing my back-testing code now (I’m using Wealthlab) particularly on the FIB trailers part. Early indications are that this system works much better winning %-wise from the LONG side (74%) versus the SHORT side (54%). Additionally, equity curve also much better from LONG side as well. With max drawdown of 20%, my back-testing model shows significant losses in 2003, 2004, 2006, and 2009. Given my my parameters, equity curve only doubled from 1993-2015. I would like to share my results with all of you, once they have been completed and verified (may be awhile due to other obligations)…and I’d love people to poke holes in my implementation.
That said, I do have a couple of questions for you:
-
Have you used your system outside of the FX arena at all? Have you noticed differing results?
-
I’m a little confused on initial STOP LOSS setting…there appears to be times when the stop loss derived from
Hi/Lo of EMA crosses is actually higher than Buy Entry point or lower than Short entry point. If this is the case,
what should initial stop loss be? -
There are some instances when Stochastic values are already at the “opposite side of scale” on trade entry. Is
this a problem at all (in other words, in these case stochastics don’t have to travel to opposite extreme)? -
Have you or anyone else on this board back-tested this system for a significant # of years? I know you’ve said
that you’ve been trading this system for 5 months or so.
I hope you don’t mind my questions as a Newbie on this board. I’ve been following this thread, and would love to corroborate results over a lengthy period of time.
Thanks in advance.
That is very strange, It never touched the breakeven after it closed below the 100 level (which took place today). May be you moved it to break even yesterday when it was close to the 100 level?
I entered on the fib’s level 23, the candle was near of level 100, I think I moved the SL to BE too early, my bad.
I just found this trend from November, I’d like to ask about how did you face it, once the candle closed below 127.2, it “pullbacked” close to level 61, and then stayed on the trend… Catching a full trend like this would be catching 600 pips :o
I don’t remember entering that trade. But what I know is that my GBPCAD and GBPAUD longs from earlier this year caught 1000 and 600 pips respectively. So you shouldn’t be shocked, you will capture moves like that.
One thing I wanted to clear up as well. We do not move our stop when price hits the fibonacci extension, we move the stop when price [B]closes[/B] past that level.
So for example your recent AUDUSD short, you should only move the stop to BE after price [B]CLOSED[/B] below the 100 level. Touching the level does not make us move the stop loss at. I hope this is clear.
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Wow thanks for this, I really appreciate it. Well let me try to answer your questions to the best of my ability.
I have not used outside FX at all unfortunately. But I use it for trading gold, silver and SPX CFDs, I doubt the result would have been different from CFDs and futures.
[B]Initial Stop[/B]: I don’t think my stop loss and target trail stop technique can be coded unfortunately. What I can do is give you an alternative. Let’s say we will short. Price moved from point x (high) to point A (low) causing the EMAs to cross downwards. Stochastic was oversold then moves to overbought and crosses downwards. This should equate to point B for price (retracement). We open two positions at point B
Stop loss would be 10 pips above point X. While target would the 127.2 and 161.8 extension of move XA. As I said two positions.
On point 3) I’m not sure what you are trying to say here. My rule is stochastic needs to be giving an opposite signal to what the EMA is giving at the point of crossing. So if 20 EMA crosses below 50 EMA, the EMAs are telling us to go short. At that point stochastic is oversold, telling us to go long. We only enter short once the stochastic tells us to go short. The same with the buy signal. I hope this answers the question.
- I have tested the system for 6 forex pairs or so using the 4 hr timeframe for theyear 2013, 2014 and 2015. It wasn’t as elaborate as yours because I did it manually. But I still have the data if there is something you are looking for.
One thing I wanted to ask, you said the equity curved doubled from 1992-2015. In that case you are saying it took 13 years to double the account? If that is the case, can I ask what was the money management technique used?
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Hey guys, when GBPUSD and nzdusd were going down after NFP, why did GBPNZD go up? Are they inversely correlated?
I’m sorry for a rookie question. I hope someone can clear this out.
Hi Philip,
Thank you for responding to a newbie -:). Thank you for clarifying the Initial Stop logic, and providing that suggestion. I’m going to have to re-work this into my model, and you’ve given me food for thought.
Regarding my point 3) and your questioning it, I made a mistake in my analysis and the chart viewing of the EMA crosses. The stochastics are as they should be in these cross-over scenarios, so please disregard my comment here.
No need to provide me with FX data yet, as I’d like to think that this algorithm of yours will work with most liquid instruments, the higher the timeframe, the better. I’m figuring (I hope) that Daily Dow-30 data will fit the bill for testing. I have access to TD Ameritrade intraday data for the last 2 years, so I can subsequently test using lower timeframes. Also (I believe) that I will have access to FX data through that API facility as well (TBD though).
Probably best to ignore my equity curve comment until I resolve STOP logic to the best of my ability, but what I meant was that I showed significant losses in 2003, 2004, 2006, and 2009, which yes, resulted in taking 23 years to double my simulated account…equity curve was much higher at points, but 2009 was a doozy! It is super-extreme scenarios like 2009 that I’m very interested in back-testing. FYI, my money management technique used was very simplistic: Starting Capital: $25,000; Fixed $3,000 Dollar Allocation to each trade, no margin (hence, a max of 8 positions open at any given time). Just something to give me a baseline.
I want to work on this and get it right for simulation. I’m using an old version of Wealthlab (3.0), which I like because I’m an old Pascal programmer (hope I’m not dating myself). Once completed, I will share revised Performance data on this thread, and will also share my WL code, so you guys can poke some holes into it, or attempt to convert it into your favorite back-testing system.
Thanks again for your system, and thanks for getting back to me!
Doug
P.S. I’ve been avoiding trading FX - not sure why - but I’d love to make the transition over to it, since it provides me with more time flexibility. This forum has given me the impetus to move forward with this plan. The Free School offered by BabyPips.com is really, really good - hats off to the website owners!
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It’s clear, I guess I was just a bit afraid of loosing more than what I could loose, but now I regret exiting there. I have been doing a manual backtest on the AUDUSD, and the results are awesome, could you share the results of the 6 pairs you have backtested from 2013 to 2015, please? I think index CFD’s work in a different way, that’s why the shorts use to fail more in my opinion.