I, too, am finished posting on this aspect of Cowabunga. I do not trade on the 15-minute. Rather, I trend-trade the daily, with trend vetting on the weekly, and I depend heavily on the ADX and also on moving averages, the Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, and--for divergences only--MACDH. I often run Fibonacci Expansions as price targets. After an overlapping wave, I may also exit on an ADX turndown or a moving average crossover. I don't usually use Fib Retracements, including extensions, as they are more of a range-trading tool, at least in my mind. I just wanted to raise the issue of using a logic-derived target such as a Fib Extension, with the Cowabunga method.
I was not able to apply a Fib Expansion to the present bull move because it did not make an A-B pattern so that I could estimate C. I do not understand the logic behind using a Fib extension to 138.2 unless, of course, you find that it often works for whatever reason. If I saw such a steep bull run on a daily chart, I would be inclined to exit at the first sign of exhaustion, such as an Evening Star or an ADX turndown, particularly if the the bull move faltered with an overlapping wave.
Just off the top of my head, if one were to use a Fib extension as a price target, it would seem that more traders would be watching the 200 level, which might cause the prophecy to be self-fulfilling. And, as it turned out, price did hit that level.
I do believe, based on my brief look, that the Cowabunga might benefit from using some kind of logic to set the price target. When price is moving in your direction it is more likely to continue than to stop, so why exit the trend unnecessarily?
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