GROWTHACES.COM Trading Strategies:
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: long at 1.0670, target 1.1000, stop-loss 1.0500, risk factor *
USD/JPY: short at 121.20, target 119.00, stop-loss 122.30, risk factor ***
NZD/USD: long at 0.7390, target 0.7590, stop-loss 0.7310, risk factor **
AUD/USD: long at 0.7680, target 0.7900, stop-loss 0.7580, risk factor **
EUR/GBP: long at 0.7175, target 0.7375, stop-loss 0.7175, risk factor *
EUR/JPY: long at 129.00, target 132.00, stop-loss 127.50, risk factor **
EUR/CHF: long at 1.0570, target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0400, risk factor **
Pending Orders
USD/CAD: sell at 1.2780, if filled target 1.2620, stop-loss 1.2860, risk factor ***
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies
EUR/USD: Long For 1.1000
(long taken at 1.0670)
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[li] We wrote in our Wednesdays Trading Strategies Update released after the Fed statement and yesterdays Market Overview that the USD rally might be over and we maintain our opinion despite overwhelmingly one-sided market positioning.
[/li][li] Our previous long taken at 1.0750 hit the stop-loss level. The position was taken too early, we did not anticipate strong USD recovery yesterday. However, this recovery does not change our outlook that the bearish EUR/USD is over. We got long again at 1.0670 today and set the target at 1.1000.
[/li][li] Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras assured European Union creditors at late-night crisis talks in Brussels that his leftist-led coalition would present soon a full set of economic reforms. A joint statement by the EU institutions said: In the spirit of mutual trust, we are all committed to speed up the work and conclude it as fast as possible. Tsipras will make a much anticipated visit to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday. EU officials said that if Greece did come up with a convincing plan to get its debts under control then Euro zone finance ministers could meet soon to release at least some funds to help it meet pressing commitments in the coming weeks.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.0796 (hourly high Mar 19), 1.0920 (session high Mar 19), 1.0940 (21-dma)
Support: 1.0650 (hourly low Mar 20), 1.0613 (low Mar 19), 1.0580 (low Mar 18)
USD/JPY: BOJ Will Rather Not Ease Again, Selling USD/JPY May Be A Good Idea
(short at 121.20 for 119.00)
[ul]
[li] Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that markets should not expect the BOJ to ease again if the underlying slowdown in inflation was driven largely by lower energy costs.
[/li][li] Kuroda countered criticism that the BOJ’s stimulus programme was not working, arguing that consumer prices rose for 20 months in a row, the longest running streak since 1998. Base pay rose last year for the first time in about 20 years, he added, voicing hope that companies will keep raising wages to encourage consumers to spend more rather than save.
[/li][li] He dismissed views that the massive monetary stimulus programmes deployed by advanced economies were triggering a “currency war” of competitive exchange-rate devaluations. He added: The monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, the BOJ and the European Central Bank have been made to achieve their price stability targets, not to depreciate their currencies. He stressed that the BOJ will maintain its huge stimulus and even expand it further on any signs of change in a broad uptrend in prices.
[/li][li] Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said he has a high regard for the central bank governor’s unwavering efforts to fight deflation. The minister added he expects Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to continue to pursue his aim of achieving a 2% inflation target.
[/li][li] Bank of Japan published minutes from its February meeting. At the BOJ’s policy meeting in February, two government representatives - one from the Finance Ministry and another from the Cabinet Office - both said they hoped the central bank would hit its inflation target "taking into account economic and price developments. Up till January, the Finance Ministry representative had said the government hoped the target would be met “at the earliest date possible.” The change in tone underlines the government’s more relaxed approach over the timeframe.
[/li][li] Kurodas comments suggest that we should not count on acceleration of BOJ monetary easing. Moreover, our view is that the USD has ended its rally on the broad market. That is why short position on the USD/JPY is justified. However, the risk on this position is higher and the scale of the USD/JPY fall could be limited.
[/li][li] We have got USD/JPY short at 121.20, the target is 119.00 and the stop-loss is at 122.30.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 121.04 (high Mar 19) ,121.41 (high Mar 17), 121.57 (high Mar 13)
Support: 120.61 (session low Mar 20), 120.44 (hourly low Mar 19), 119.68 (low Mar 19)
USD/CAD: Eyes On Canadian CPI And Retail Sales
(sell at 1.2780)
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[li] The CAD weakened against the USD on Thursday, hurt by another dive in the price of oil, a key Canadian export. Oil was pressured by comments from Kuwait’s oil minister, who said OPEC has no choice but to keep production steady, renewing concerns about a global oil surplus.
[/li][li] The CAD may depreciate further today in case of weaker-than-expected Canadian CPI and retail sales readings (12:30 GMT). The market expects February CPI at 1.0% yoy, unchanged from the previous month and core CPI at 2.1% yoy vs. 2.2% yoy in January. Retail sales is expected to fall 0.7% yoy vs. a decline by 2.0% yoy in the previous month.
[/li][li] In our opinion higher USD/CAD levels may be a good opportunity to get short. We placed our sell offer at 1.2780. However, this is quite risky position.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.2750 (low Mar 17), 1.2800 (psychological level), 1.2835 (high Mar 18)
Support: 1.2599 (hourly low Mar 19), 1.2507 (low Mar 19), 1.2449 (low Mar 18)