How to successfully swing trade the markets? (HAS Method)

[bkr1969]

After re-reading the post to this point I felt I should clarify. The profits I posted are using my own modification of the HAS outlined here. I use a 4 hr. chart to start with. I use the D1, W1, M1 with this to track the trend. I am mostly using this on a shorter term basis because the signals for all time frames moving to the same color are more rare than continued trends where all are the same. I base the strength of the trend on the size of the 4 hr HAS candle and time my entries based on the regular. As mentioned before, I also overlay Bolinger bands to help. If the last regular candle has shown a strong counter-trend, (and this means it moved toward or even reached the middle BB) I will place an entry with the HAS trend. The further from the outer BB the candle starts, the greater the potential for profit, so I set my stops accordingly. The HAS candles usually get smaller and the curve flattens before a change in one time frame's color, so I try to be more careful or even avoid entries if this is showing. I tend to exit within 2 candles with a 10-30 pip profit using this technique. If the trend is still strong I can always re-enter. This is a work in progress and is by no means perfect. I got badly burned this morning by a huge dip in the USD/CAD. I am planning on spending the whole month working on this, so I'll keep everyone posted.

[bkr1969]

After a day of several losses yesterday, I did some more revising of this idea. The same basics apply, but now I look at shorter time frames to time the entry (sometimes as short as 1 minute chart). Each of the charts have the same feel, in that you can see the waves, red to blue and back. Also, even if every chart from 4h down to the 30m show all four sub times as red, if the 5 min and/or 1 min show half blue, the trend is obvious (very short term) up. I follow this up-turn the same as on the main chart with the BB. Even though it's ultra short for a 4 hr chart, I don't want to enter on an up swing on the 5 min. If I wait for the "peak" and enter a sell there, there's less chance of my SL being hit. Using this revised system this afternoon (Mountain time in U.S.) I placed 9 trades ending with 7 wins, 2 losses for a net gain of +178 pips in about 1 hour. Doesn't seem too shabby to me.

[tib001]

Dear Bkr1969!

which BB (period) do you use? 21 is better?

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by bkr1969

Does anyone know how to set up these indicators for Dealbook? I'm going to install the MT4 and see if I can figure it out, but just wondering if anyone else has done it.

Since I have some computer programming experience, I thought that I would write the indicator in full for Dealbook.

Before I was to do this, however, I looked very carefully into the structure of this indicator and did research into it.

I sadly report that this indicator fails to do what it claims to do.

It was initially set up by Don Steinitz, a casino gambler and card shark who was always being kicked out of the casinos in the USA.
Knowing that it was being set up by a gambler already gave me reason to be concerned.

Don Steinitz had a computer program written for this indicator and sold it as a trading robot.
Traders lost a great deal of money with this program.
It simply does not work.
Don Steinitz has a reputation for being a scammer.

The problem with this indicator is that it is a colour based system instead of being a numeric indicator as all the ones on Dealbook are.

With colour based indicators a problem called repainting occurs.

Repainting is the process whereby a whole batch of colours in a lower time frame change colour suddenly because the higher time frame colour changes.

example
Suppose the 4 hour timeframe shows an incomplete red colour (going down).
The 15 min timeframe colours are also red.
The 4 hour colour goes green upon completion because the price action has gone up.
Then suddenly 16 of the last candles of the 15 minute timeframe will also change to green.

This process is called repainting and it renders this indicator in its present form effectively useless.

This is the reason why Don Steinitz stopped trading with it and it died out in use.
It has been resurrected here again on this forum.

In promoting his trading robot on a U tube Google promotion video he carefully avoids clicking the mouse to enter a trade but nevertheless, promotes the system as a potential gold mine.

My recommendation for those who want to trade trends is to go for an indicator that is proven and actually works.
I recommend the Starc bands.

[cfabian]

Hello all,
I believe this is a good system, however, as someone mentioned before, it does lag on time. However, to "overcome" this I changed the indicator's values to tighten calculations and enter earlier. I've set them to 2,3,3,2 with good results.

Also I only trade H1, confirming upper timeframes. Yes I do have sometimes large drawdowns (300 pips or so), but at the end all close positive.

When these drawdowns happen, I try to "hedge." First I reconfirm trend of my trades, then place a second trade in the same direction as the prior. This results in lowering drawdowns and you can either close them when their balance accumulate zero or little positive, or just trade them both till in profit (this is what I do).

Cheers,

[ForexPhantom]

Hey all!

This system is incredible so far. I have just used it tonight for the first time to place some short trades and its amazing. So far, I've shown a profit from 7/8 trades or an 87.5% success rate! And the one that was for a loss was actually a total mistake (I was looking at the 1 min chart I think).

Anyways, results very good so far. Definitely gonna keep playing with this system. One thing I like to do is go by the 30 min chart to place short trades, then immediately jump to the 1 min chart and monitor what is happening.

Thanks again. Now if only we could implement this into a trading script! Imagine that!

[bkr1969]

Thanks for your input, Tymen. I have definitely noticed the repainting effect and while it can cause failure, I still think that HAS type candles present a great base for a trading strategy. I have moved from this method to one called HAMA PAD. It, too, has some drawbacks, but I think it's even better...provided one has the discipline to enter strictly according to the rules. This must be coupled with lots of experience (practice, practice, practice) and intelligence in knowing how/when to slightly bend those rules. (Sounds like a contradiction, strict adherence yet bending the rules). Most of all, proper money management is necessary. I'm hoping to "find my niche" with a method like this. Tymen, do you have any info or good links regarding these types of candles? You seem to be one of the more well grounded ones here and you tend to favor regular candles to multiple indicators. The only problem I'm having with your system is that I'm in the US, (GMT - 7) and, at least in this current market, don't see many setups during the part-time hours I have to trade. Any info you or anyone else has would be greatly appreciated. I feel that forex is an endeavor where one can never learn enough.

[tymen1]

To Bkr1969, ForexPhantom and Cfabian :

You people are in charge of your own destiny, of course, and what/how you choose to trade is your business.

I just fear that you may come out battle scarred and at a loss in the end if you continue with this system.

I can only give suggestions based on what I know.
Therefore, my advice is general.

I would say that it is better to trade well known and proven indicators.

When you trade exotics, you are on your own - there is no proven experience to help you.
Its a bit like owning an exotic car, when it breaks down, where do you get spare parts??

According to the hyperlink below, the best indicator around is the MACD histogram.

So what would stop you from using that in 4 different time frames?
This indicator is totally proven and has a history to back it up.

On the other hand, Don Steinitz changed his entry methods several times and, in the end, did not really know what to do.
There is no stop loss in this trading strategy - you will have to develop it yourself!!

I conclude by saying - be careful, trade with small amounts first, so that, if a loss occurs, you will not lose too much.

Finally, have a read of the following hyperlink :

The Trading Game

[ForexPhantom]

Hey guys,

Tymen -- I appreciate your concern. What gives you hesitation about this method? The indicators seem very good so far. I've been demoing this method and so far, in one night, I am up $429. 13/14 trades were winners and I'm getting ready to add another win to that list. It may be a fluke, but so far this is the best system I've ever come across.

Could you also direct me towards the other system you mentioned? I would love to demo it and see if my results are similar. I'm totally new to all this stuff so any help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks again guys. Have a great day.

[cfabian]

Thanks a lot Tymen for your comments and insights. I believe we all are here to share experiences and to help each other to better trade.

I understand your point about HAS. I do find it very easy and intuitive to use, and the best all is you have multi timeframe on the screen. Have to say that I only trade closed dots, so it does not change on and off. So far experience is good. Need to manage drawdowns, but I believe all strategies inccur in them.

What do you think about what I do in terms of changing HAS settings to 3 periods instead of 6? I do see earlier signals, but want to know what your think as an experienced trader.

What you think about multi timeframe stochastics?

Cheers