One of the simplest trading strategy for newbies

Here is the result for “27-5-2016” based on my trading system:
Broker: Profiforex (Standard account)
Trading System: Moving Averages
Signal:Buy
Currency pair: EURUSD
Amount traded:1 microlot
Opening price:1.11471
Closing price:1.11808
Pips gained as profit:33.7

moneybaggy.

What SL or TP you use? is it a 1/3 or higher?

Here is the result for “04-06-2016” based on my trading system:
Broker: Profiforex (Standard account)
Trading System: Moving Averages
Signal:Buy
Currency pair: EURUSD
Amount traded:1 microlot
Opening price:1.11423
Closing price:1.13604
Pips gained as profit:218.1

Here is the result for “14-06-2016” based on my trading system:
Broker: Profiforex (Standard account)
Trading System: Moving Averages
Signal:Sell
Currency pair: EURUSD
Amount traded:1 microlot
Opening price:1.12648
Closing price:1.12198
Pips gained as profit:45.0

Here is the result for “23-06-2016” based on my trading system:
Broker: Profiforex (Standard account)
Trading System: Moving Averages
Signal:Sell
Currency pair: EURUSD
Amount traded:1 microlot
Opening price:1.13343
Closing price:1.09739
Pips gained as profit:360.4

I would love to see a backtest of this system with just 4 majors.

Getting on with moving avergaes is very simple. Just set the period of your moving average and insert it on a price chart. You can also use exponential moving averages. The signal to buy simply occurs when prices move above the moving average from bottom.

Here is the result for “4-07-2016” based on my trading system:
Broker: Profiforex (Standard account)
Trading System: Moving Averages
Signal:Buy
Currency pair: EURUSD
Amount traded:1 microlot
Opening price:1.1096
Closing price:1.1142
Pips gained as profit:46

Hi Manxx could I get a copy of that pdf by chance?

Sure, it is included in this thread (not the very latest version, but that only included some minor, insignificant changes):

http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/80124-ribbon-system.html

It is not my method but I do use it constantly with a few very minor tweeks to suit my own trading profile. I don’t use it as a “stand-alone” method, rather I include it as an integral part of my own method.

The document is really just a summary of the posts on the site where I was introduced to it and was written simply to help newcomers instead of having to wade through over 1000 posts on that site! As you can see on the linked thread, it hasn’t created much interest here but it is still alive and well on the original site (albeit quieter and subject to trolls and adverts!). Interestingly though, this thread here has led to a few of us sharing progress off-site.

In my opinion, it is at its best when combined with an underlying method (for example, such as the MA’s method on this thread) and used as a timing mechanism for fine-tuning entries and exits.

I would ask that if you have any subsequent questions, then please post them on that ribbon thread rather than here on Moneybaggy’s. :slight_smile:

Hello Manx! Do you have a myfxbook account that we can see proof that it works? or maybe provide a screenshot of how you’ve applied this strategy?

Hi Billywhyte,

No, I do not keep a myfxbook account. May I emphasise that I did not introduce this method to this site nor to the site where I first met it. That original thread was started back in Oct 2015 and is still active. I decided to compile the content of that site into the pdf to help newcomers there. In other words I am not promoting this method to anyone but I [I]do[/I] use it constantly and am happy to help anyone who may have questions about it including screenshots if you wish…but not here, this is Moneybaggy’s thread about a different method. The ribbon method has its own thread and there is a link to it in my above post. If you post a question there then I will try to respond to it there. Hope that is ok :slight_smile:

Hello, we have not heard from you in a long time. Is your trading system dead?

I prefer the EMA. It just makes more visual sense to me. I have only been trading for about a year and a half and I recently moved to a day shift job so I am in the process of building a new strategy. Currently, I use the stochastic, EMA and the Donchian (only on my High time frame) .

So you are using both of these strategies?

Can you please tell us more? What timeframe? Which currency pairs? What about exit rules? What about stop loss?

Are you referring to Moneybaggy’s opening post MA strategies?

I haven’t seen him posting in a long time now, but that does not mean that these are now extinct ideas.

These are very basic strategies but based on sound principles. I.e. that if the ave price over recent time (e.g. 15 time periods) is greater than the ave price over a longer period (e,g, 50 periods) then it indicates that the price is generally moving higher and vice versa.

But we all know that simply mechanically trading MA crossovers does not work consistently over time. There are always periods of low activity that produces whipsaws and the crossovers alone do not give an early enough warning that the move is exhausting itself. But for entry levels these are quite reasonable and realistic MA values to work with. ( various combinations of MAs with values ranging between 5 and 50 have been a core part of my trading approach for many years and I have no reason yet to change that).

But there is a need, I think, to have some kind of filtering method to avoid some fakes and some other method to determine target/exit levels if one is not using fixed targets.

Yes, the question was regarding the opening post. But I actually liked the idea of trading with MA ribbon. I have been using moving averages for last few years and I really like them. I am currently testing my own system based on MAs. It’s a system for long-term trading because I have a full-time job and I can’t sit in front of my laptop for whole day, but I needed some simple system that I could follow after work, so I will try to use the “ribbon system”. I will try it on some micro account first and see if it works.

Here is my idea:

  1. I will trade 15min charts with 2 MAs calculated using the “typical price” (6-period and 6-period with shift=2)
  2. I will check the trend using 1 and 4-hour charts and 200MA (bullish trend if price is above the 200MA etc.)
  3. I will also use RSI 14 with level 50
  4. When crossover happens, I will check if last candles body was completely above/below the ribbon and if RSI is above/below 50 level
  5. Set stop-loss above/below the ribbon
  6. Exit if the crossover happens in the opposite direction

What do you think about it?

Of course, I will try to filter entry signals with price action, support/resistance levels, fibonacci, etc…

Interesting ideas Sivric. Here are some initial questions and thoughts:

And yet your method contains none of the OP elements! :smiley: For this reason I would normally suggest moving this to another thread out of courtesy to the OP, but since this thread is dormant and Moneybaggy has not been seen since last year, I guess we can continue here?

If you are trading the 15 min TF, then this is not really a long-term trading system at all. It is a very short term method that you only have access to for a short time “window” each day because of your work. So my first question is:

) What time zone do you live in and what times are you available to trade? Depending on your working hours, does your free time coincide with the Asian, London or NY markets? This is quite important with the 15m TF due to variations in price movement activity characteristic of these various markets.

Why do you wish to use shift=2 instead of shift=1? I guess this can give a clearer signal? The idea underlying a ribbon is that the shifted line is a shadow of the main line and when the main line breaks below its own shadow then it is possibly making a significant turn - i.e. it is like an “advanced warning” of a possible change in direction, and that warning is faster than waiting for a reverse crossover of MAs with different periods. This leads to my second question:

  1. What currency pairs are you planning to follow? I ask because the 6 sma on a 15min TF is extremely sensitive. Since some pairs are more volatile than others then you will see many false crossovers with these. You might find with some pairs that it is better to use maybe an 8 sma or even higher?

Checking the underlying longer term trend is a very wise precaution and avoids many false breakouts. But I am not sure that the 200 ma (sma or ema?) on a 1-hour and 4-hour is the best choice with respect to trading a 15min TF. They are so slow moving compared with the 15min trades. Also, they may work fine while the long term trend is in its prime but when this trend is fading and starts reversing you might find that 15 min trades no longer have an edge in the trend direction.

As a example, here is last Friday’s EURUSD 15m chart with these 200ma’s laid over. I don’t see much benefit here?

I think there are better ways of achieving this bit. One might be to apply the same approach as used with the 3 Ducks Method, which is a long time method here on BP. It uses a 60-period sma on the 4H and 1H charts to identify the underlying trend and the trades off the 5 min. This 60-period may also be suitable for your method as you are using it for the same purpose and the crosses would be sooner?

There are three other approaches to this that we could look at but I don’t want to throw too much too soon here into the pot! Let’s see how you feel about my comments overall before proceeding further with this bit.

Personally, I think this is a good cross-check. I use it myself and it does help as a confirming signal. Some people do not like off-chart indicators like this one and I confess I do sometimes forget to look at it! As always with short TFs, this can give false signals and I find it more reliable on the 1H chart - but it is an extra aid…and just an aid!

Whether or not the previous candle body is entirely through the ribbon is a good principle but maybe can be treated with some discretion in the context of the price movement as a whole and maybe it is good enough that just the bulk of the candle and close is through the ribbon (and not necessarily the start as well)? - remember, the 15minTF is not a precise science at all!! Maybe another consideration is even more important and that is to be very wary of reversals with large candles on this TF. By definition, the profit targets are not great per trade on this TF and a large reversing candle has often already swallowed a lot of the potential and frequently rebounds on the next candle. A general rule is to enter on a 50% pull-back of the large candle. Treat these with care!

I would add to this that it should also relate to any nearby S/Rs, latest high/lows, etc. In other words, all the normal stoploss criteria but on the opposite side of the ribbon.

If you are talking about your take-profits here, then I do not think this is a good idea on a 15min TF. Crossovers on the 6MA ribbon come fast and furious and you will suffer many small losses as well as lost pips from the max potentials. This will only work on those few strong straight up/down moves. (Again look at the above chart). The original idea of ribbon trading was to look for a fixed target that related to the stoploss and the overall price movement. E.g a stoploss of 15 pips and a target of 20 pips and then to wait and re-enter on another crossover either in the same direction or reversed.

In other words, there are three exits:

  1. fixed target
  2. reverse in opposite direction before target hit
  3. stop out

Well, that’s a lot of waffle from the BP’s best waffler! :smiley: Most people can say in three words what I take three pages to write, but I hope it helps and if you are interested then we can take this further…

Hi Manxx,

Now I’m talking about your system (ribbons). :wink:

I trade my own system on 4-hour and daily charts, but I needed some system that I could trade each day after work. My own system doesn’t give many signals since it is traded on higher timeframes, so I needed some short-term trading system to entertain me :slight_smile:

I live in Central European Time Zone and I can trade after 5pm

That’s right!

Mostly USD related pairs

BTW Thank you for your help