This is a forum for free forex trading systems. Not sure why you think I’m journaling or why I’m getting hostility from you. First you were happy someone was posting on here but now you’re upset that someone is posting. What gives? Didn’t know you were using this as a public journal. No problem though, I’ll leave your so-called ‘journal’ alone before you give me another bi-polar episode.
That’s both unwarranted and insulting, Bard: the mistake here was yours, not Jake’s.
Really? The guy complains no one is interested in his topic, I get involved because I actually am he says he’s happy someone is showing interest, and now he gets upset that I’m posting charts. Am I in the wrong? Thought this section of the forum was for free forex trading systems, not public journaling.
He didn’t “get upset”, and what he said [B][U]certainly[/U][/B] wasn’t enough for you to accuse him of “bipolar” behaviour, Bard: that was just plain rude, and [I]totally[/I] unnecessary.
In my opinion; yes.
Before Jake posted, it had already occurred to me that your charts were out-of-place here, and would have been more appropriately posted in a thread of your own.
Please appreciate that I wasn’t commenting on your behaviour here purely for the sake of it, but only because this is actually the [U]third[/U] thread in the last week in which I’ve seen respected members understandably displeased by your posts here (and that’s rather concerning, when you’ve been a member for only two weeks). That sentiment’s an opinion, of course, but your gratuitous insult was objectively plain for all to see. Please don’t do that again, in this forum. Thanks for understanding.
Lexys what members are you talking about? Trust me I won’t post on this thread again but what respected members? This is an outright accusation so I think it’s fair you only point to these respected members.
First, as I took the trouble to specify, that part of what I said was [I]opinion only[/I]. Secondly, I don’t propose to occupy any further space in this thread with this nonsense. Thirdly, when you have enough posts on the board to use the private message facility, I’ll happily discuss it in more detail with you privately, if you still want to.
Meanwhile, I’m sure it would be appreciated all round if you have the decency to apologise to Jake for the gratuitous and unwarranted insult.
Sure. Apologies Jake.
Are you sure about this?
The commonly accepted “format” surroudning threads of this type, are for the thread owner to post their own analysis, trades, thoughts/ideas, and any other BP member who is interested in those specific pieces of analysis, trades, thoughts/ideas to comment directly on those items- not to post their own analysis in an arbitrary manner.
In other words, the first post of my thread lays out my approach to trading @ a high level.
Members can then see live trades I’ve made since the beginning of the year, and catch up on some of my analysis.
It would be odd for another member to start posting their own analysis in the thread that really has no connection to the material at hand. You’re just posting your own analysis here.
It’s sort of ‘accepted’ that posts within another member’s thread should be on topic to that thread.
If you want to share your analysis and how you see the charts, start your own thread- that’s what I was getting at.
So, typically ‘acceptable’ posts would be- Hey, I’m watching the Nikkei as well (After seeing one of my charts) I don’t think that the support level you’re watching is really key, here’s why, etc etc.
Or, Hey Jake- I noticed you talking a lot about order flow- how do you tie that into your analysis?
Look, at the end of the day, and to be quite honest- I really don’t even know why I still mess around w/ this forum. It’s a decent place to get a base understanding of FX, but the overwhelming majority of interactions I’ve seen over the years are just lazy. Everyone wants a handout or a shortcut and no one wants to take the time to thoroughly research anything on their own. And, I will say that it’s a vicious cycle I’ve contributed to over the years.
Unless someone on this forum is looking to eventually monetize their advice, I highly question their motives. Including my own, b/c as we all know damn well… Time = Money.
My motive for starting this thread, which I did not originally reveal, was to show underfunded retailers that they can “make it” with the absolute minimum deposit, whilst building up equity over time. It’s difficult, the odds are 98% against you, and it’s definitely a gamble. But, I’m fighting for the little guy and trying to plot an account history that shows you can start w/ as little as $50 in a mini account, and with avg leverage b/w 10-20x grow to a decent size over the course of a few years.
The idea was:
$50 initial deposit
4 months later, deposit $75
3 months later, deposit $100
2 months later, deposit $125
1 month later, deposit $150
So, with a decent strategy and the inability to set-aside significant money to an account up-front, @ a minimum you’d have $500 in equity roughly by the end of the year knowing that you had to save up to meet those final larger deposits.
You can use any denomination to begin w/ (Doesn’t need to be $50) but I chose that amount to prove that it is doable. @ the end of the year, you’d be able to lever up 10-20 times and put on decent-sized positions. The problem is that people typically just throw every $0.01 they can in an account, lever up, and lose it all within 3 months. The stipulation behind “allowing” the next deposit to hit your account is that you’re account is still positive. So, the account/strategy will actually reward you for being patient and protecting capital. If you’re reckless and can’t properly limit your need to trade, the next deposit never comes.
You essentially test your discipline to the cause for the first 4 months. If you can’t get out of the woods then, chances are you never will. It doesn’t mean sit on your hands and be defensive. It means that you need to prove you’re dedicated to the process and not focusing on the results (B/c they will be very small in the beginning). In other words, the potential exists for you to be on the sideline for a week, stalking a trade, journaling about it, taking the trade, managing it for another week, journaling it, all for a few dollars in profit. Process, not results.
Signing off for now.
Jake
:64:
Appreciate the response Jake. My fault for not understanding how this forum works. I meant what I said about you providing a service here because it seems like 2 out of the 5000 systems on here that actually are consistently profitable and clear in approach than having 12 indicators on your screen. Not that there’s anything wrong with indicators. But I prefer more of your approach to trading than say a Cowabunga or something like that.
Keep an eye on XAGUSD - a solid close today to round out this week, would confirm XAU is moving up as well. Range broken to the topside.
Lots of ways to take advantage of a precious metal rally / resumption of the longer-term bull trend…
Confirmed.
This type of 1-way, straight-up price action is indicative of two very important things:
- Short-sellers covering
- New long positions entering
$17.00 was a very high probability zone to sell XAG. It was the convergence of a 38.2 FIB retrace, 20 month range resistance, and the ceiling of a ~33 month channel. This is very bullish.
Additional confirmation- head and shoulders bottom, cup and handle bottom, establishment of a new upward sloping channel.
The thing about this type of price action- most traders who are new to the game have this crazy “requirement” that they can only buy or sell on a “pullback”. Well, if you’re trading off this single chart timeframe, or maybe one other, chances are, you never saw a “pullback” and you’ve now potentially missed a great entry point. This is why retail traders are notorious for losing in the long-run; simply because by the time they are comfortable enough to enter the market, it’s too late.
Hence the, “AS SOON AS I BOUGHT, THE MARKET MOVED AGAINST ME AND TOOK OUT MY STOP! THEN, THE MARKET RALLIED RIGHT BACK UP TO MY ENTRY POINT!!” complaint you hear 5-10x week on most trading forums.
However, I will concede right now and admit the likelihood of a pullback after such an exhaustive move is somewhat likely.
There are many ways you can trade (what I’m calling the resumption of) the precious-metal-complex rally.
Physical metals
Options
Futures
Equities (ETF)
TNX- ALL TIME HIGHS
TLT- ALL TIME LOWS
SWISS YIELD CURVE 0 - 50 YRS = NEGATIVE!!
BUND = NEGATIVE
US10YR 1.45!
1 RATE HIKE Q4 '15. “4 MORE '16”. “3 MORE '16”. “2 MORE '16”. “1 MORE '16”. “NO MORE UNTIL '18”. “RATE CUT IN '17”. “QE4 IN '17”.
“THE FED IS NOT DATA-DEPENDENT ON ONE-SINGLE POINT.”
38K NFP. NO HIKE.
BREXIT. NO HIKE.
The FED has 168% lost ALL credibility they had left (which was close-to-none to begin with). They are behind the curve, out of touch with reality, and these markets are about to wake up to the fact that QE is a short-term fix w/ major negative long-term ramifications.
Tip my hat to the central planners around the globe: You’re negative rates QE infinity monetary experiment is a success! You’ve inflated the largest stock market bubble in the history of markets.
SHAKE
MY
HEAD
…What financial crisis?
Jake
July 5, 2016 19:22 EDT
I really can’t find the words to describe how I feel about these markets right now, so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from my analysis, if you’re interested.
I STILL feel the real story here is Oil. 90% of the time this trading year, equities have moved almost in lock-step w/ WTI. There is a major disconnect right now as oil is breaking range lows and equities are testing range highs…
And the dollar is apparently back in rally mode.
Meanwhile - 10YR! XAU! Swiss yield curve! Bunds!!
What the hell is going on here? If Q1 profits were killed by “USD headwinds” and “weak oil” - what will Q3/Q4 look like w/ Brexit uncertainty, a resilient USD and cheap oil? Oh, and pretty much a 0.00% chance that the FED will ever get out of 25-50bps in the next two years?
::scratching my head::
Let’s all pile into the S&P, b/c as long as everyone is buying, or money is safe.
YTD / 6MO SNAPSHOT - ORIGIN FEB 2016 (when my trading year starts).
Overall, pretty happy w how 2016 is shaping up.
Got a lot more aggressive (thus the volatile swings) - not 100% proud of having 50% DD, but @ the same time - big reward typically doesn’t come w/o big risk. And to me, it’s all about how you finish, not how you got there.
MAY was a bit rough, but I was able to completely recoup in JUN and get back on track. Targeting b/w 350-400% this year for FX.
Equities - still in a bit of a drawdown, but XAG and XAU ETF trades are really starting to pick up and mitigate some of that. Short SP, long XAG/XAU, long VIX.
Options - had significant profits the MON after Brexit, and made the(in hindsight, incorrect) decision to not take anything off the table, as the nearly-100% across-the-board retrace I did not see coming…so, in a bit of DD w/ my options account. But, I have a 100+ day silver call that just came ITM and that should marinate for the next 60 days or so. Short financials, short tech.
For the second half of the year I’m going to approach the charts w/ a much more short-term mindset. A lot of positions I put on quickly moved in the money, but I was getting a bit greedy and barely took anything off the table only to bail @ entry, or get stuck in a DD period. I lost sight of this tactic that I had been touting for months in this thread, that you “need to be in and out b/c traders are controlling these markets”. W/ the SP still in a range, I think there is uncertainty in equities and you’d be hard pressed to say that the risk is to the upside.
Jake
I believe price is back at the botttom green line.
Are you in?
Hello, are you still trading? I like your style, hopefully you keep posting. Thanks