Road to Trading Mastery 2017

This thread offers you comprehensive courses on analysing price behaviour and ultimately predicting direction. I put the courses together drawn from my years of digging, studying and testing the markets. Each topic offers you great insigh into analytical skills that as a trader are vital. The courses cover areas for which have been many books written and traders around the world utilize everyday to reap profits from the markets.

I condensed this knowledge to its essence and core and once you commit to read and put the effort in the tutorials provided at the end of each course. You’ll be able to link together invaluable skills in order to shape a sentiment and predict price direction that will aid your trading and create a solid trading foundation.

I geared and dedicated this page towards traders that have been in the market for several years and are beyond the gimmicks of what lures newbies to this business. I am very passionate about Forex trading and I like to share my time with like minded people. That understand running a successful trading business calls for dedication beyond the average effort. Putting hours in when others are relaxing, staying focused and following the plan when the market throws you back and are disciplined enough not to temper with their risk taking no matter what scenario arises because you know you deserve better. If you are not in that mindset, well then all I ask you is to think this way going ahead.

There is something else I like you to do, be very patient. It is imperative that after putting in hours of reading and digesting information from the very first course you’ll want to take it for a test drive. I have designed the courses and supporting tutorials not as a stand alone skill. Everything is linked together and until you haven’t studied them all and followed the excersises provided it is very unlikely you’ll find great success.

Volume spread analysis

Volume and news are a powerful thing. And there are 2 give aways about volume in proportion to candlestick size that will give us a loud a clear signal about the integrity of the move.

Firstly, if price is rising on low volume the move cannot be real and prices are likely marked up by market maker(MM). Therefore are subject to collapse or a retest of the covered price range.

Secondly, if price has barely moved but volume is much higher than the closest candles then there is growing interest from smart money in the opposite direction.

We will use these two signals to our advantage. However like any decent move in the FX market we need a catalyst to push price around. Most of the time news are the catalyst and contrary to what most traders believe these announcements are opportunities for smart money to offload their holdings in large blocks from what they amassed in the accumulation phase.

Before we get to the charts there is 1 fact about news releases that is a scrupulous reality. Before data and news releases are announced they are passed on from the main source to the news wires. Stations receive data about 1hour to 45minutes prior to release, to accommodate their publishing process. Sometimes somehow data gets leaked and we see setups emerging prior to release, plotted by well informed traders that are pre positioning themselves for the feast.

Tutorial 1

Aud/Usd 4h chart. The Fed (federal reserve) interest rate decision is imminent and we have this clear setup appearing.

Where price moved up and created a lower volume but bigger candle body than the most recent candle. This anomaly stands out and sends a clear message that better informed traders are positioning in anticipation of a move lower.

Almost as soon as the news hit the wire and the low of the last 4h candle gets breached we see this pair tanking.

Tutorial 2

Cad/Jpy 1h chart. EIA crude inventories are due and we have another clear signal.

Price created a big bullish candle with increased volume but created another one right after it with higher volume but significant smaller bearish candle.

The low get’s breached on the back of the report and we see an instant reaction with a spike lower.
[B]

continued…

Tutorial 3

Gbp/Usd 1h chart. Britain’s referendum vote count is imminent yet another very clean-cut and obvious anomaly.

Price surged up on very low volume creating a massive up candle only to get reversed by a smaller down candle on increased volume.

As more votes came in the low of the last candle breached and price tanked.

Supply & Demand

Everytime supply swamps demand we see a swift and robust breakout the same is true whenever demand overcomes supply. Effectively creating an imbalance when there are more sellers than buyers and the other way around.

In the wake of the breakaway there are always unfilled orders left and it is imperative that once price retraces back into the origin of the S&D imbalance that price will exhibit a sharp reversal.

A note before we analyse the structure of S/D zones. It is key that the breakout occurs on the back of fast and big candles same thing is true for the retest. Furthermore for a confirmed S/D zone price needs to trade away dramatically, post breakaway.

Tutorial 1

Steps of a supply imbalance.


Price was traversing gradually higher where it suddenly dipped and created a sharp pin to the downside.


The gradual move picked up again until it hit consolidation

Followed by a massive and unstoppable move lower, making a clean break past the sharp pin from earlier.


If we were to label this structure. A would be the base of the supply zone. B is the top of the range and C marks the entire range.

continued…

Several month later price revisits the zone and bounces as prior unfilled orders dominate direction.

Tutorial 2

Steps of a demand zone


In this example price was rising and created a sharp pin to the upside.

Price consolidated and made a clean break past the pin

A few sessions later price fell back to the demand zone and got supported by more buy orders.

Good to have you back Kas! Looking forward to learn from this thread!

Keep 'em coming!

Sessions recap

Trades that were inline with sentiment, had the right PA and dominated market this week for Massive moves
Eurcad my fav this week



Crashed lower

Next on Monday was audusd short


Then short kiwi right after the stop raid on FOMC

And today’s perfect short entry on Aussie from supply zone


Made me over $300 today

Tomorrow I’ll share the one setup that worked every single time during NFP release
I shared it on twitter last December and it got tons of positive feedback

It’s a generator

The one setup that dominates on NFP regardless of the outcome
Eurusd chart


Buy zones for eurusd post NFP


NFP OUTCOME
eurusd bounced over 36 pips from the zone !


S&D Zones for the week ahead




'best

KAS

to all supply and demand traders;

Ever wondered why some zones that look picture perfect just get run over? Why some s/d levels bounce 10 pips and others dominate the market for weeks and month?

I got the cheat sheet for you, posting very soon. (Clue) the supply level on kiwi from the charts above is one such a level

'best

KAS

Before I explain why supply and demand zones hold and why not I’d like to introduce a third course

Sentiment analysis

Sentiment analysis course

Just like candlesticks cover different timeframes sentiment does too. There is always an underlying long term sentiment and there is a daily sentiment.

When studying sentiment we try to answer 1 question only; Is it good for future growth or is it bad? Sometimes there is no strong bias and that is absolutely fine.

Sentiment analysis focuses on current perceived value of future events. Thankfully it’s less of an art and more like ploughing through articles and checking data. Always focusing on the main theme. There is no interpretation needed it should stand out and be very clear what market participants are thinking.

Before we start with the tutorials there is 1 distinct difference between sentiment analysis and technical analysis. The difference lies in the recourse utilised to draw information from. For analysing sentiment we use top news wires such as bloomberg, reuters and respected market analysts and their accompanied commentaries. There is subscription based sources that gather all necessary information and data into one accessible package and there is free available material. Any and all of our sources should echo 1 clear tone.
Tutorial 1

Top news headlines:

-Surprise U.S. election win for Trump

-Dow rises on the back of more fiscal stimulus plans from president-elect Trump

-Liquidity shifting from Asian bonds to U.S bonds

-U.S 10yr yield up more than 8bp(basis points)

-BOJ (bank of japan) monetary policy remains dovish

All of those headlines send one very clear message: USD is extremely bullish and YEN is under pressure.With sentiment favouring US dollar and yen negative there was only one path for USD/JPY and that was up.

These headlines and more USD supportive data dominated news wires after the election and sparked a buying frenzy that sent USD/JPY up 1200 pips over a period of 3 weeks. With a strong positive U.S. sentiment doors opened for bulls to keep bidding this pair up.

Tutorial 2

Top news headlines:

-Opec members meeting to finalize deal on oil production cuts

-Oil rising on the back of a potential production cut

-Commodity traders eyeing WTI $50 in the wake of Opec meetings

-Eurozone under pressure from Italian Referendum, Italian pm Renzi will resign if he losses

-World’s oldest bank and 3rd largest bank in Italy Monte de paschi di siena suffering from mountain of bad debt

-Gov. Poloz (Bank of Canada-BOC) comments that rising oil prices lifting pressure on central bank to make any monetary adjustment in the near future

These headlines have been in traders ears over several weeks. As the Canadian dollar closely follows oil prices with a possible production cut and no monetary adjustment from BOC the path of least resistance was up. Following recent developments in the Eurozone, Italian referendum and bank collapse pressure, euro was getting sold hard across the board.

EUR/CAD dropped over 1000 pips in the run up to the Opec meeting and a further 100 pips on the day of the meeting upon reaching a production cut. With continued negative sentiment for the Euro and very bullish sentiment for Canadian dollar. Traders took the pair down.
Tutorial 3

-High Court decision due today on invoking article 50 (UK’s PM May, wants to trigger article 50 and follow through with a swift and hard Brexit, however parliament believed they should have a say on how and when this should happen and lean towards a soft Brexit)

-It’s been heard one of the ruling Judges said that the people (ie; parliament) should have a say on invoking Article 50

-UK economy has been extremely resilient in the wake of the Brexit vote and continued better econ. data is keeping GBP buoyant

-Canadian dollar has been somewhat subdued as of late, dominated by ranging oil prices

GBP/CAD has suffered an overnight flash crash a month ago but since then has traded up. Sentiment is overall weak on this pair but with the high court decision ruling leaning towards a parliamentary approval this pair is gaining traction.

High court ruled in favour of parliament and MP’s approval. On the back of this news GBP/CAD leaped 130pips instantly and another 200pips the following trading sessions.

Back to the subject of S/D levels.
Here is the copy from the article I wrote on my page:






'best
KAS

Lemme know if the charts are too small so I post the originals

Hello Kas good to see you back and a really good thread I must say and I had a question if you can answer it that what do you think about identifying supply and demand zones with the use of volumes?

I had mixed results.
So I stick to event driven s/d levels or correlation with 10yr yield and usdx (will post about very soon)




best’

KAS