Companies like Bloomberg and Reuters create surveys on economic and market expectations. Most of the websites and other media use these numbers and post them. This is where those consensus numbers that you see are coming from.
That’s cool. I wonder how those banks actually come up with a forecast. I can envision a bunch of scientists all crammed in a lab crunching numbers and looking at statistics to come up with some kind of formula, haha. Does anyone know the real answer?
The major global investment banks have teams of economists that meet together to discuss their views. These meetings can take hours or even days. Basically they meet until they can all come up with a number that they can agree on.