Why does the market sometimes move down after positive news? - Page 2
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  1. #11
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    Dec 2006
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    And let's not forget the revision figures. When a report comes out there are generally revisions of the previous month's figures that come out at the same time that can influence things in a surprising manner

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
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    55
    Quote Originally Posted by broberson View Post
    This has happened to me over and over again. Iíll see a positive report come out and theoretically that countryís currency is supposed to move higher with the report, but instead the market actually brings the currency down. Can anyone explain this? Is there something Iím missing?
    The course that i'm study atm has explanation that sound resonable to me.They say Market make a news not a news make a market and they explane:

    If we have a strong market and bad news come but market still get strong that mean that market all ready know this news and this can't move it from his direction.In case that good news come to a strong market news weight amplify cause it just confurm a strenght of market and give it more fuel.Same refer for a weak markets.

    You need to know on what kind of market you are at moment if you know main direction of matrket that you trade you can be calm about news.

    Remember ? Trend is your frend Trend is direction of a market.

    Best Reguards

    Vladimir.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
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    Wichita Falls, TX
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    Quote Originally Posted by allinger View Post
    ...
    And on top of the above posters, lets not forget the insiders - anything that is put out in a report is most likely known or "known" or suchlike by the insiders.
    There aren't any "insiders" in forex, unless you count the central banks, and they certainly aren't trading the data releases.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
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    1
    Quote Originally Posted by broberson View Post
    This has happened to me over and over again. Iíll see a positive report come out and theoretically that countryís currency is supposed to move higher with the report, but instead the market actually brings the currency down. Can anyone explain this? Is there something Iím missing?
    I know .This happened to me on Jan 19,2006 when the UK Retails Sales came in 2Xs higher than the consensus and the Cable tanked. Here's an explanation from the guys over at Dailyfx.com. May shed some light on how the large playas throw down In retrospect the candle the day before was a hanging man and the stochastic was about 79.8. If I had stuck to the candles I would have taken profits too. Go figure.

    UK Retail Sales (December)
    Actual: 1.1%
    Expected: 0.5%
    Previous: 0.2%%

    How Did the Markets React?


    UK Retail Sales handily beat expectations printing at 1.1% versus 0.5% forecast, but almost all the markets reacted negatively to the figure as the good news was well anticipated and profit taking overwhelmed the fundamentals. Bonds rose, the pound fell and equities corrected mildly. The health of the UK consumer is well established, but markets bid up most of the instruments in days prior to the release and traders used todayís results to lock in gains made this week.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    11

    Question newbie

    Hi guys I am very new to forex. Just starting at the KG class and browsing the forums. About the question of the author of this thread is there any fundamental or other means of knowing whether or not the market has already taken the outcome of the news or consensus in the price of the currency atleast to some extent? Cos the author says it happens only sometimes I think it may take it into account the news sometimes and then when the positive news comes out the currency drops and other times it continues to rise on the news. In other words is there a way to know when a currency is overpriced as in stocks(PE etc) As I said I am a newbie and if this question doesnt make much sense excuse me. Thanks.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbond007700 View Post
    About the question of the author of this thread is there any fundamental or other means of knowing whether or not the market has already taken the outcome of the news or consensus in the price of the currency atleast to some extent?
    In a nutshell, no.

    You might be able to figure out what the likely reaction of the various market participants is if you are really clued in on the fundamentals and have bags of experience, but you'll never get it right all the time. There are too many players, all with different goals which means they all have different ways of assessing and reacting to the same economic news releases.

    As has already been stated, in general the market will have already taken into account the expected number of what the news release might be prior to its release. What the market's reaction will be to how different the actual release is compared to the expected release depends on many factors: how much of difference there is, how all the participants were positioned before the news release, how they want to be positioned after the news, etc. And all these factors shift and change over time.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    41
    Because of what seems to be a growing trend in news releases, myself and my trading partner started some time ago to make our trades on news releases ONE MINUTE AFTER! the report comes out.

    As I read it on another forum, the initial reaction to a news release is a "knee jerk" reaction to/from traders. The LATER effects are BROKERS trading actual prices.

    Seems to work. But, then again, you never can tell with Forex, right?

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
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    8
    Quote Originally Posted by allinger View Post
    If you're bearish you wouldn't want to mark down price against your own selling, right...
    i don't quite understand this. if you were buying on the rumor, couldn't you lock in profits by selling just before the news release? why wait after?

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