Daily Fundamental Dose

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after witnessing higher than expected plunge in US Empire State Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar kept its advance running as the aftershocks of Paris attacks favored safe-haven demand of the greenback; however, the JPY couldn’t enjoy the safe-haven demand gains as negative GDP reading kept favoring another monetary easing session by the Japanese central bank. The Euro region currency remained a bit more firm as Greece managed to get an aid package agreement of additional monetary help from European authorities; though, ECB board member, Peter Praet, said that the central bank sees risk that investors and consumers will lose faith in policy makers’ projections for reviving inflation and damaged the Euro during early Tuesday.

Moving on, Crude Oil prices trimmed its Monday gains as the supply glut fears superseded risk premium following Paris attacks and French air strikes in Syria. Moreover, the New-Zealand Inflation expectations remained as prior 1.9% mark and magnified the NZD downside while comments from the Chinese commerce ministry that the external trade situation in China has become more severe this year from 2014 and the sector is facing increasing downward pressure triggered another decline of the commodity currencies.

During the rest of the day, Inflation numbers from UK and US, coupled with ZEW Economic Sentiment for EU and Germany, are likely to fuel market volatility. There are brighter chances that the UK CPI would continue its downward trajectory and may hurt the GBP while an improvement in US CPI may help USD regain its strong run.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) extended its march to the highest levels in more than seven months as CPI rose to the highest levels in four months by reversing prior declines, favoring speculations that the Federal Reserve might find it easier to lift benchmark interest rate during its December meeting. The said optimism for USD adversely affected the EUR which also went down due to renewed threat of another bomb scare in Europe and gunfire in the French capital. Further, the JPY was on its southward journey ahead of the crucial BoJ which is likely to indicate the need of further monetary easing while the commodity currencies, namely AUD, CAD and NZD, kept trading down with a plunge in Copper and Gold prices; however, the Crude witnessed profit booking due to expected cut in US stockpiles and higher refinery runs.

For Wednesday, US again likely to be in the limelight as minutes of its October meeting is scheduled for release during the later part of the day. As the meeting wasn’t followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference, market players are likely to concentrate more on the details to look for December rate hike signals, should there be any hints relating to that, which is more likely, USD would be on rally.

Moreover, Euro is more likely to continue its downward trajectory with no major releases left for publish while the JPY may extend the decline ahead of Thursday’s BoJ. If the Japanese central bank refrains from indicating the need of further monetary easing, JPY, which also has a support from safe-haven demand, is likely to regain its strength.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if some FOMC members, as reflected via last week’s FOMC meeting minutes, cautioned that raising rates too early could cripple the momentum of the U.S. economy and triggered USD correction, the greenback managed to print positive weekly closing as improvement in Inflation mark, coupled better manufacturing numbers and three week low Jobless, helped favoring expectations that the Fed would lift the interest rate during December meeting. Further, the ECB President, during his testimony, provided strong support to the central bank’s readiness to adopt further monetary easing and also mentioned that the bank may extend QE or further cut the interest rate, if needed, giving additional harm to the regional currency and the strength to the USD. The GBP weakened against majority of its counterparts on negative CPI and higher than expected drop in Retail Sales while the AUD strengthened considerably as RBA, in its minutes, revealed that it doesn’t see any need to cut the interest rates in near-future and a rise in New-Zealand PPI and Retail Sales helped the NZD gain. Moreover, the JPY remained sideways as the BoJ refrained for favoring further monetary easing even if the country’s GDP number signaled recession and helped the JPY.

In addition to hawkish comments by some of the FOMC members during weekend, the market sentiment is now favoring the USD up-move, backed by expectations of December rate hike; however, current week has few economic releases scheduled due to holidays in US and Japan and may favor less Forex volatility.

On Monday, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from France, Europe and Germany are likely to gain much attention while US Existing Home Sales and a surprise Fed announcement may become market mover during the later part of the day. Should the US central banker keep favoring the December rate hike, chances of the near-term USD up-move becomes brighter.

Have a nice trading-day….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the second estimate of US Q3 2015 GDP marked an uptick of 2.1% compared to previous forecast of 1.5%, the US Dollar couldn’t enjoy the benefits and ended up in a negative territory as the CB Consumer Confidence printed the lowest number since September 2014. The rise in German Ifo Business Climate Index to the highest levels in more than a year also helped the EUR to recover against its US counterparts while a rise in Crude prices, mainly due to geo-political tensions between the Turkey & Russia, helped commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD, extend their gains. The JPY, backed by safe haven demand, also registered noticeable strength on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, minutes of recent BoJ meeting revealed that some of the BoJ’s policy board members said the bank’s decision to delay the timing of meeting its inflation target partly reflects slow improvement in the output gap, pulling back the JPY. Market players are now awaiting for monthly releases of US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales in order to determine near-term USD moves.

Other than the nearby releases, the crucial ones that could shake the markets are next week’s US Fed Chair’s speech and ECB meeting. Moreover, the final reading of US job details, ahead of December FOMC, would also have higher important than ever and may fuel the market volatility.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

US Dollar Index rallied to eight months high as three month high Core Durable Goods Orders and a four month highs of Durable Goods Orders provided more support for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. The Jobless Claims plunged to the lowest in four weeks while the lagged behind consensus, though, remained ahead of the previous release by printing 495K mark. Further, the ECB, in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review published Wednesday, said that the Asia risks rises, favoring speculations that the central bank may go for announcing further monetary easing on its next week’s crucial monetary policy meeting. Moreover, with no releases from UK and Japan, the GBP and JPY also weakened against majority of its counterparts while AUD stopped its north-move as business investment fell by the most on record during last quarter.

With the US markets enjoying Thanksgiving holiday, rest of the globe is more likely to witness thin liquidity; however, recent strength of the December rate hike speculations, backed by improvement in US economics, could continue favoring the greenback up-move. Though, it should be noted that the rest of the week isn’t having any major releases to publish, except tomorrow’s UK second estimations of Q3 2015 GDP, and market players may now eye for the crucial next week which encompasses ECB, US NFP, EU CPI, UK headline PMIs, RBA and BoC. Hence, it would be obvious that wild moves can take place during the weekend trading sessions and traders are advised to not participate in these moves with an intention of getting positional trades. Unless the next week passes, nothing is concern except the USD rise ahead of the releases and hence short-term profit booking positions favoring greenback should be considered to trade.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-November-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Higher than expected GDP print, upbeat Durable Goods Orders and overall optimism about the December rate hike, all contributed towards resulting another positive weekly closing by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The Euro couldn’t enjoy the benefits of positive PMIs as market players remained worried about this week’s crucial ECB meeting that would determine whether the European Central Bank will cut its interest rate or extend/expand the QE or both. Moreover, the GBP remained quite negative even if the GDP number matched consensus as Consumer Confidence plunged to the lowest since January while the JPY gained against some of its counterparts due to rising safe haven demand. The Commodity currencies were in the red due to Chinese equities’ plunge during weekend while Crude and Gold prices extended their declines due to supply glut and rising dollar curbing their demands.

During early Monday, the Japanese industrial output rose for a second straight month in October and retail sales grew much faster than expected, helping the JPY while rise in New-Zealand ANZ Business Confidence helped NZD recover some of its early losses. Moreover, contraction in German Retail Sales provided another reason to the EUR bears.
For the rest of the day, Chicago PMI and New home Sales from USA could gain majority of the market reaction while Thursday’s ECB and Friday’s US NFP would determine near-term moves of the global financial markets.

Even if it is nearly certain that the Fed would hike its benchmark interest rate and the ECB would join the other way round, if not in December than in early 2016, hawkish words of ECB President, coupled with pessimistic US NFP may help the EURUSD recover some of its recent losses while actual actions meeting market forecasts would make the pair vulnerable enough to test parity level soon. Hence, all eyes should be centered around the weekend events.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with a below 50 print of US Chicago PMI and lower than expected hike in Pending Home Sales, the US Dollar managed to mark a positive closing on Monday while the Euro remained sluggish ahead of the crucial ECB meeting and downbeat German Retail Sales provided additional damages to the regional currency. The GBP was a bit on the upside while the commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, kept maintaining their downtrend even as the news from IMF that their largest consumer, China, is successfully able to include its currency, Yuan, into SDR basket. The JPY held its gains with strong safe haven demand while the crude prices stretched their downside.

During early Tuesday, the Chinese official Manufacturing PMI plunged to the lowest level since August 2012 with 49.6 print while Non-Manufacturing PMI, also known as Services PMI, rose to 53.6 from 53.1 a month earlier. Also, Caixin Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.6 in November against the forecast of 48.3. The news provided another setback to the dragon nation that still couldn’t come out of pessimism even after six interest rate cuts. Moving on, the RBA held its monetary policy intact for the seven consecutive meeting and said improvement in consumer confidence and employment details still paints a rosy picture of the economy while inflation may get affected due to Chinese negativity. The JPY was on the upside during early Tuesday as capital spending by Japanese companies surged the most in eight years, favoring GDP upgrade in next week’s reading while news from the WSJ that the GPIF started to hedge some of its investments against fluctuations in the euro provided additional strength to the JPY. Moreover, the US Dollar Index completed its best month since July and witnessed a profit booking session during the start of Tuesday.

With market players started behaving like the Fed rate hike during December 16-17 meeting has already priced-in, the USD is more likely to witness a downside if the Friday’s NFP prints downbeat number while the ECB can provide more liquidity into the market as hesitance in signaling monetary policy easing can fuel the EUR short-covering rally. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players to wait for the headline details scheduled during the week and only take intraday positions while avoiding the longer-term investment decisions until the crucial month ends.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Construction Spending rose in October to the highest level since December 2007, plunge in the ISM Manufacturing Index to its weakest level since June 2009, coupled with dovish tone of the FOMC members, Charles Evans, during his public appearance, favored profit bookers on Tuesday, making the greenback register daily negative closing. The Euro remained on the sluggish side ahead of the CPI and crucial ECB meeting while the AUD and NZD kept marking their highs against majority of its counterparts due to improvement in Chinese Services PMI and RBA decision of not cutting down the interest rate. The GBP remained weaker as Manufacturing PMI marked lesser than expected number and the BoE Governor, in a public appearance, said indirectly that the central bank’s next move would be an interest rate hike than a cut but it won’t be nearby. Moreover, the JPY and the Crude witnessed negative sessions as lesser than expected Japanese fundamentals, coupled with upcoming OPEC meeting which is less likely to alter group’s output, hurt them respectively.

On early Wednesday, Australian GDP rallied at a quicker to 0.9% pace than economists forecast 0.7% in the third quarter, driven by the fastest gain in exports since 2000, and supporting the central bank’s decision Tuesday to keep interest rates steady. However, the AUD failed to keep up the rise as market players again turned towards the USD after Tuesday’s pullback ahead of crucial releases like, EU Flash CPI and US ADP number, coupled with the US Fed Chair’s public speech wherein she is expected to favor December rate hike for which there are 70% chances of success, as indicated by the Bloomberg. Other than the EU CPI and US details, UK Construction PMI and BoC monetary policy meeting, are some other important events that could continue fueling Forex moves today.

As the recent market plays again favored the greenback ahead of important releases, chances of USD bull-run continuation can’t be denied. However, a higher than expected rise in EU CPI might for the ECB towards avoiding the monetary easing and triggering sharp short covering in EURUSD; Moreover, weaker than expected ADP number can also favor further downside of the US Dollar. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players to stay on the sidelines unless the actual outcomes of the important releases comes and meanwhile keep supporting the USD on an intraday basis.

Have a nice-trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the ECB disappointing markets with too lesser than expected monetary easing measures, with cutting down the deposit rate by 0.1% to -0.3% and extending the QE for six more months than the initial date of September 2016, the EUR rallied considerably and alternatively harmed the USD. Moreover, comments by the Fed Chair, during her testimony just after the ECB meeting, revealed that the current labor market details, published on Friday, is less likely to bear the utmost importance and nullified the impact of higher than expected NFP mark. The JPY witnessed downside as some of the BoJ policy makers doubted the ability of central bank’s monetary easing measures to reach the inflation target and suggested to remove the date limit for the same target while the GBP also witnessed downside with weaker Manufacturing and Construction PMI. Moving on, the commodity currencies were kept trailing in red due to global commodity pessimism, mainly triggered by China, while the crude prices plunged as OPEC refrained from production cuts in its meeting, favoring additional supply glut.

However, the market again started favoring the greenback and punishing the EUR after the ECB President said the central bank may consider for additional stimulus, if needed, during its upcoming meeting, and the speculations concerning December Fed rate hike bolstered. The JPY kept witnessing downside, as one more BoJ policy maker uttered negative remarks for the central bank’s current monetary policy. The AUD and NZD kept running down as AU ANZ Job Advertisements marked 1.3% against 0.3% prior downward revision and the RBNZ is more likely to cut its interest rate to the lowest since 2009 during this week’s monetary policy meeting.

Having witnessed ECB’s disappointment and NFP’s non-impactful reading, this week has fewer important economic events, except Japanese GDP, Chinese Trade Balance, RBNZ and BoE, that would provide Forex liquidity. However, major flows are likely to continue favoring USD on the back December rate hike speculations. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players to buy USD in the small lots and on the intraday basis to take advantage of current moves.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Dearth of major economic releases, coupled with on-going rout of EUR short-covering rally, kept hurting the US Dollar on Tuesday as well as on early Wednesday while higher than initially forecasted Japanese GDP helped JPY extend its running gains. The GBP, on the other hand maintained its downturn as three months’ low Manufacturing Production supported the UK currency bears ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting. Moreover, plunge in the Crude prices and some of the major commodities couldn’t let the AUD, CAD and NZD, commodity currencies, enjoy the benefits of recent USD downturn.

On Wednesday, markets seems stretching its previous inclination of selling USD; however, the commodity currencies gained a bit during early trading hours as Chinese CPI marked higher than expected number; though, the actual figure is lesser than government’s 3.0% target and a continuous plunge in PPI kept making downside pressure. Moreover, the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, said on Tuesday, that the nation’s economy is accelerating the recovery mode and it becomes less required to use unconventional policies such as quantitative easing to spur growth but the CAD couldn’t enjoy the said comments benefit due to plunging oil prices, its main export.

Also, the NZD isn’t showing more signs of improvement ahead of RBNZ meeting, Thursday, when the central bank is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate while Japanese Machine orders’ print showed its continuous contraction; though, with smaller losses.

As the current market actions are well against USD and there aren’t any big US releases except Friday, when Retail Sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment Index will be released, it would be better to transfer some of the intraday funds against the greenback while the EUR is a good call to buy.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the ECB Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny, saying that the market expected too much from the central bank while forecasting monetary easing measures and the bank was right in its place, the EUR got another boost on Wednesday while the USD again had to witness alternative downside. The JPY remained dear to the market players as current uncertainty ahead of next week’s FOMC and a bit of pullback in to the commodity markets favored the export-oriented nation while the GBP remained sluggish with no major economics to track.

Monetary policy meeting by the RBNZ proved to be a strong point for the NZ even if it cut the interest rate as the central bank Governor signaled that no more interest rate cuts are necessary to achieve the target inflation rate. The bank also raised GDP forecast to 2.4% for Q1 2016 against previous 2.2% estimations while it also said that it could reach the 2.0% inflation target during the fourth quarter of the next year, against previously estimated date of Q3 2016. The AUD also witnessed pleasant surprise as the nations employment change extended its rally against a forecasted dip and the unemployment rate dropped further while the Crude prices, after witnessing initial pullback closed again on the negative side even after unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories as distillate stocks rose.

Today being a central bankers’ day, after the RBNZ, the SNB and the BoE are likely to govern the market moves. Moreover, UK trade balance and the US jobless claims are some of the minor releases to witness. Even if the current flow of the market is against USD, chances of its reversal become stronger day by day as we come closer to the FOMC. Hence, it would be better not to put too much on the USD sell side while GBP may reverse its immediate downside as the BoE may pedal some hawkish words.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after the US Jobless Claims rallied to the highest levels since late-July, the USD managed to register first positive daily closing on Thursday as the world is coming closer to the crucial FOMC next week which will trigger Fed rate hike for the first time in a decade; moreover, consumer-centric details, scheduled for today’s release, are also expected to provide greenback a positive ride. Recent surge by the euro lost momentum after ECB policymaker, Erkki Liikanen, spread dovish comments while JPY also adhered to downside after Manufacturing Index signaled weakness. Moreover, Crude prices suffered sixth straight day of declines as the global supply glut persists while the Chinese Yuan tested lowest in 4.5 years as economic growth seems slowing further, providing additional damages to the NZD, CAD and AUD.

During early Friday, German Final CPI matched 0.1% forecast while WPI again plunged into negative region. Market players are more likely to concentrate more on the only US economics scheduled during the week that would be out during the later part of the day, namely Retail Sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment. The consensus favor marking an optimist numbers by these indicators and may help them support the greenback’s recent to achieve weekly advance.

With the FOMC approaching next week, it would be in the best interest of the market players to wait for the actual outcome prior to taking any trades; however, a risk taker may buy the USD prior to Fed meeting and enjoy gains with tight stop-losses.

Have a nice-day and a great weekend.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after upbeat printing Retail Sales & PPI numbers, the US Dollar headed for the second weekly decline ahead of the much awaited FOMC meeting as market players remained worried about the consecutive rate hike pattern after the first in a decade interest rate lift take place during the current week while the EUR extended its short-covering rally, following the ECB’s disappointment, even with no major releases. The JPY rallied heavily against majority of its counterparts after market participants run for safe haven ahead of the FOMC while the GBP flashed mixed signals with a greater decline in Manufacturing Production and a bit hawkish BoE tone. Moreover, the commodity currencies, namely NZD, AUD and CAD, extended their downside as Crude prices plunged with EIA forecast favoring extended supply glut while People’s Bank of China (PBOC), during its Friday meeting, said that the currency’s strength shouldn’t only compared with USD, to which market reacted negatively and ignored five month high Industrial production release by China.

During the early week, the quarterly release of the Bank of Japan’s “tankan” survey revealed that the Japanese firms are planning to hold their large investment intact; though, they were worried about the economic outlook. Market players are more likely to concentrate on ECB President, Draghi’s speech during the rest of the day and look for the clues to liquidate their recent EUR buying.

However, major attention would continue to rely upon the Wednesday’s FOMC outcome, which also accompanies Fed’s economic forecast and followed by press conference by the Fed Chair. Should there be a disappointment, either through downgrading economic forecast, or a slower future guidance on interest rate hike, the USD is more likely to react passively to the news as the interest rate hike seems already priced-in. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players to cut their larger positions and wait for the outcome of this crucial event than to take an immediate step in greed.

Have a nice-trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

The US Dollar printed a lesser change on a closing basis during its Monday trading as market players remained cautious about the Wednesday’s policy meeting outcome while GBP rallied against majority of its counterparts as Rightmove HPI shrank lesser than prior -1.3% with -1.1% print. Further, the JPY was a bit weaker as pessimism triggered by BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey results, published on Monday, favored less of JPY buying while the NZD rallied across the board due to improvement in dairy prices. The Chinese Yuan, however, kept trading in losses for the eighth consecutive day, the longest losing streak since June, as PBOC seems favoring weaker currency and driving down the reference rate. The Crude prices halted its plunge on Monday and favored a bit of pullback in majority of commodity currencies; however, the same couldn’t be sustained on Tuesday and the black gold kept extending its southward trajectory on Tuesday.

During early Tuesday, minutes of the RBA’s December 01 meeting revealed that the economy is on positive trade with impressive data points; however, subdued inflation could force the central bank to break its seven month halt to interest rate cut, if needed. Moreover, lesser than previous Australian HPI and upbeat motor vehicle sales helped AUD register some gains during early trading sessions.

For the rest of the day, CPI from UK and US, coupled with German and EU ZEW releases and US Empire State Manufacturing Index, are likely to provide data points to fuel Forex volatility. If the US CPI prints an impressive mark, chances of hawkish FOMC statement becomes brighter and can strengthen the greenback. Moreover, another pessimistic reading by the UK CPI would magnify the GBP downside while commodity markets are likely to remain largely on the downside with no major economic changes to observe.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the inflation numbers matching forecasts; though, being lower than what the Fed’s target is, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) got a reason to register positive daily closing; moreover, lesser than forecast contraction in Empire State Manufacturing Index helped the greenback stretch its gains. The GBP, even after registering four month high CPI, failed to impress market players and remained weaker as PPI plunged to the lowest in three months while improvement in ZEW economic sentiment indices from EU & Germany kept favoring the regional currency, EUR. Moreover, the JPY remained weaker as rise in Crude prices, coupled with nearness to FOMC, caused market players to go for risk-bearing assets than the safe-havens like JPY. The commodity currencies, however, remained worried about the Chinese pessimism and maintained their downside.

During the early part of the crucial FOMC day, Wednesday, Flash Manufacturing & Services numbers from Germany favored the EUR strength while EU numbers and the UK labor market details, coupled with EU Final CPI & US Housing market details, are likely to govern the intermediate market moves earlier than the day-end’s Fed decision.

Going with majority of market forecasts, the Fed is almost likely to hike an interest rate by 0.25%; however, the tone of the Fed Chair, during press conference, and the Fed’s economic forecast, would carry higher importance in addition to the future rate hike plan. Though, a disappointment to postpone the rate hike towards January or early 2016 would carry higher risk for the USD and may trigger considerable downside for the greenback. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players to wait for the actual outcome of this crucial event and then let the market stabilize prior to taking any trades or else it won’t take much time for your trading account to get wiped out.

Have a nice trading-day….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

The US Federal Reserve, lead by the Janet Yellen, finally managed to announce first in a decade interest rate hike to the global economy with slightly upbeat tone relating to the strength of the US economy, helping the greenback to extend its recent up-move; however, the central banker kept repeating its words that further rate hike would come gradually as and when needed. The quarterly economic forecasts by the FOMC remained mostly unchanged with unemployment anticipated to fall to 4.7% in 216 and economic growth marking 2.4% advance. The move was better than the dovish lift-off expectations and helped global markets, with the leads taken by the US fronts. The Euro, which gained during early trading sessions with Greek parliament approving a bill containing reforms demanded by the country’s international lenders, CPI surpassing initial 0.1% forecast with +0.2% mark and an improvement by Flash PMIs, registered considerable downside due to contrast monetary policy than the Fed while the GBP remained weaker with higher Claimant Count Change and lesser than forecast earnings rise. Moreover, the JPY remained weaker with less of safe-haven demand while the NZD and AUD gained with a bit of commodity price rise and a halt in Yuan’s plunge.

Having witnessed the biggest event of the year, which matched forecasts, the market players are more likely to keep favoring the USD with Fed Chair being loud mouthed on US economic recovery while German Ifo Business Climate, UK Retail Sales and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, are some of the left-ones economic details that could continue fueling today’s Forex moves.

Given the UK Retail Sales, generating higher portion of Britain’s GDP, reverses prior -0.6% with forecasted +0.6% advance, chances of the GBP recovering some of its recent losses can’t be denied; however, improvement in German reading isn’t expected to help the EUR with a big bash. Moreover, the commodities front may re-join their southwards trajectory as stronger USD could further curb the demand side while the supply side, especially for Crude, being overloaded.

Have a nice-trading session….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with a negative print of US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar extended its recent up-move towards testing the two weeks’ high as USD bulls kept celebrating the Fed rate hike with greenback buying, providing additional weakness to the EUR; moreover, weaker than expected German Ifo Business Climate Index extended support to Euro bears. The GBP closed in a negative territory even with the annual retail sales growth exceeding 5% in the past three months while the JPY remained weaker ahead of the BoJ and market players’ shift in risk appetite. Moving on, the AUD, CAD and the NZD stretched their recent downsides with weakness in commodity prices, mainly driven by the Crude which got another shock of supply glut with higher than expected US crude stockpiles.

During the early Friday, the New-Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rallied to the highest levels in eight months while the Bank of Japan surprised forex market with operational changes in its ETF and funds buying pattern with including some of the longer-term maturing assets in addition to taking part in equity markets buying. The market reflected with the stronger buying of JPY and favored the NZD as well; however, the USD bulls seems fading and the greenback have lost its strength since the early day trading session.

For the rest of the day economic calendar is silent and is less likely to trigger any major changes except in the CAD wherein the Canadian CPI & Wholesale Sales would help determine the moves of the Canadian currency. Moreover, the market have finally reversed against the USD and should this pattern continues, as with no economics it is more expected, the greenback may lost its weekly gains and could reverse to no-gain zone on weekly basis.

Have a nice trading-day….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the much awaited interest rate decision by the Fed announced during last week, coupled with somewhat hawkish tone of the Fed Chair who kept saying a “moderate” economic growth, helped the US Dollar stop its previous two weeks’ decline and pushed to the first positive weekly closing. The Euro, however, witnessed side-effects of the same with contrasting monetary policy of the ECB as compared to the Fed. One of the ECB board member Peter Praet, also an economist of the central bank, said in his interview with a Belgian newspaper that the ECB would continue following easy monetary policy as long as possible due to slower growth in emerging markets hurting the region’s economy as well. The JPY witnessed upside during weekend after the BoJ’s outcome which mentioned a change in its massive stimulus program rather than altering the amount of monetary aid to the economy while the NZD extended its gains against majority of its counterparts as dairy prices kept improving; however, the AUD and CAD, coupled with the major commodity prices, including Copper and Crude, maintained their downturn due to global supply glut and Chinese pessimism. The Crude prices plunged to the lowest since 2004 as suppliers from the Middle East to the U.S. are likely to keep pumping record supply glut to fight for market share.

During the late-weekend, also the early Monday, the New-Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment remained ahead of its previous mark and helped the Kiwi extend its recent gain series while highest print of Japanese All Industries Activity Index since December 2014 propelled JPY up-move. German PPI and EU Consumer Confidence are some of the economic details scheduled for release today that could deliver EUR moves while major news are absent from the calendar and can continue favoring less liquidity into the world’s largest financial market.

With the holiday shortened week, including Christmas, majority of the market players are in celebration mood and have little news from the economic side; hence, the market is less likely to witness much of the volatility during the current week. However, this doesn’t restrict the year-end flow of marketers who wish to exit from their running losses or lock their current profits as the year comes to an end. Hence, a slightly weaker economic growth number from the US could harm its recent gain and may pull it towards negative weekly closing.

Have a nice trading-day…

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, Dennis Lockhart, said in an interview Monday with WABE, the Atlanta public broadcasting radio station that the Fed’s ‘Gradual’ interest rate hikes may be at every-other meeting, depending upon the data, the USD failed to register a daily positive closing as year-end profit booking moves dragged down the greenback. The Euro, remained firm on short-covering and an inconclusive results of Spanish election while the JPY and the GBP maintained its up-move following no major releases due to USD weakness. Moreover, NZD and AUD, maintained their upside while the CAD also got support from the a halt in Crude plunge due to winter demand.

After the UK GfK Consumer Confidence and Chinese CB Leading Index printed better than expected & prior numbers during their early Tuesday releases, market players extended their support in favor of commodity currencies and GBP. However, final version US Q3 2015 GDP, scheduled for release during the later part of the day, may help the greenback gain its recent losses.

In addition to the US GDP, the Existing Home Sales and NZD Trade Balance are some other details that could offer liquid forex session during the rest of the Tuesday; though, chances of greenback’s downside to extend are higher as market players are in mood to lock their profit ahead of Christmas holiday season. Moreover, a weaker prints by the scheduled US releases may give some more reasons for the USD bears to extend their profit booking moves and add into the December decline of USDX which is likely to register largest losses since April.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-December-2015[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the Q3 2015 US GDP grew 2.0%, due to three month high consumer spending number of 0.3%, after the GDP rose 3.9% during previous quarter, the US Dollar failed to close on a positive note during Tuesday as Sales of US Existing Homes slumped in November to 4.76M against 5.32M prior, the lowest level since April of last year. The Euro, even if trading volatile due to Spanish uncertainty, completed the day on a positive side as weaker USD favored year-end buying in the regional currency while the GBP kept extending its downside. Moreover, the JPY remained firm with safe-haven buying and a positive outlook for the nation ahead of the end of 2015 and the commodity currencies, namely AUD,NZD and CAD, witnessed an upside closing with a bit of pullback in commodity basket while surprise dip in U.S. inventories, as released by the US API, coupled with the potential for more exports in an oil market due to winter season, helped the Crude prices register first positive daily closing in previous five during Tuesday.

During early Wednesday, the NZD Trade shrank to the lowest in four months while Japanese markets are closed due to Emperor’s Birthday. Though, UK GDP, Current Account, Canadian GDP, Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders, coupled with US New Home Sales details, are some of the important details that could provide important moves during the rest of the day.

As the year comes to an end most likely that the market players would leave trading aside and enjoy the Christmas celebrations; however, downbeat US economics could provide them a chance to liquidate some more of their early month USD buying. Hence, it would be in the best interest to stay away from the market except a few trades based on the economic data which is more likely to cut down the GBP and USD.

Have a nice trading-day……