Daily Fundamental Dose

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the market bracing on the recent FOMC minutes’ tune, backed slew of hawkish comments from leading FOMC members, the US Dollar printed one more daily positive closing on Thursday. The Jobless claims also dropped from 14 month high and helped the USD Bulls to extend the greenback’s upward trajectory against almost all of its counterparts except GBP. The GBP remained strong across the board as recent waves favoring the Britain to remain in the EU, backed by positive economic data-points, let’s say yesterday’s Retail Sales, helped the UK currency while the JPY also stopped its downside ahead of the crucial G7 meeting which might provide clues relating to further moves of the BoJ. Moreover, the commodity currencies remained lackluster on the weaker commodity prices, mainly due to strong USD.

Moving on, the Friday started with G7 meeting in Japan wherein the global leaders struggled to come up to solution for the prevailing macro pessimism; however, the meeting is still on and might provide decisive moves to mainly the JPY. Also, the on-going raft of “Brexit” versus “Bremain” continue providing GBP a strong hand while the speculations governing June hike helps the USD towards marking the best rally since January.

For the rest of the day, Canadian CPI, Retail Sales and the US Existing Home Sales are some of the data-points that can continue pumping the market liquidity. Should the US details keep remaining on the positive foot-hold, the USD can again prove that May is a best month for its up-move. Additionally, the poll outcomes concerning the Brexit and the G7 details might also become important for market players to observe.

Have a nice-day………

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Hawkish comments from FOMC meeting minutes, backed by upbeat Inflation and housing numbers, weighed concerns for the US Federal Reserve’s June rate hike and helped the US Dollar Index to secure third weekly gains, the longest winning streak since January. Additionally, some of the influential Fed policy makers also termed the June-Hike as a Live possibility and fuelled the greenback’s across the board rally, except GBP, which was up against all with labor market numbers and favoring support of “Bremain”. The EUR maintained its downside with weaker economics and Greek tantrum, which recently slowed down during weekend as Greece agreed to take demanded measures to receive IMF aid-funds. The JPY stretched its south-run as BoJ head also seemed worried for recent JPY strength and said the central bank can take further measures, if required. Furthermore, the commodity currencies also weakened against USD even as the Crude prices continued rallying due to weaker Oil production report from US and supply worries at Canada and Nigeria.

During early Monday, the market traded against the USD and helped the commodity currencies, together with JPY even as the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI contracted at the fastest pace in more than three years. Also, Flash readings of German Manufacturing & Services outweighed the consensus & helped the EUR. However, the same readings for EU are still pending and may be important to forecast further moves of the regional currency.

As the Canadian markets followed holiday and fewer economics are left for release during the rest of the day, except EU Flash numbers and US Flash Manufacturing PMI, chances for the initial day moves to stretch are higher. Though, unless strong EU numbers come-up, the EUR can’t be expected to moves further highs while the USD and JPY may remain volatile with JPY mostly seen strong.

Have a nice trading-day…….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following its longest winning streak since January, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) remained a bit shy on Monday even after slew of FOMC members’ comments kept favoring June hike as Manufacturing PMI plunged heavily. The EUR printed some gains on upbeat German numbers while the GBP also dropped as recent polls favored “Brexit”. Commodity currencies remained weaker against USD as the Crude oil weakened after rallying to seven month highs while JPY regained its strength as renewed global uncertainty, mainly relating to actions of BoJ and Fed, helped shore its safe-haven demands.

Alike its recent trends, the Tuesday reversed the USD’s recent losses and helped it regain the optimism while AUD dropped heavily after the RBA Governor seemed worried for Australian housing market, indicating further rate-cuts ahead. The EUR also weakened ahead of ZEW numbers and the GBP started rising again.

As the FOMC policymakers continue putting more pressure on June rate-hike, the possibilities of rate-hike have recent started rallying, which in-turn helps the greenback. At the EU and UK, there is exactly one-month to go for the referendum and the polls have started fueling the GBP volatility towards sky. Additionally, the BoJ also seems in a mood to cure JPY soon and might provide additional counter-strength to the USD. Hence, it would be better to hold the USD longs ahead of the Friday, at-least, while not forgetting to cover the profits on previous USD long positions.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following another dose of upbeat comments from some of the FOMC members on Monday, the US New Home Sales rallied to the highest in more than eight years and helped the US Dollar to extend its upward trajectory. The greenback rallied to the strongest levels since March against EUR and also reversed majority of Monday losses while comparing to JPY. Commodity currencies, like AUD and NZD maintained their decline while the CAD got on the better hands versus the USD as restoration in Canadian Oil sand productions, coupled with higher Crude prices, helped the Loonie, as it is nicknamed. The AUD was badly hit after comments from RBA Governor were considered to have signaled further monetary easing. Moving on, The GBP, however, accelerated across the board as latest polls favored no “Brexit” during June 23 referendum while BoE policy makers, in their Inflation report hearings, failed to discuss risks associated with the country leaving EU and further propelled the Pound value. Moreover, rising USD values adversely affected the Gold prices which dropped to a month’s low and keep stretching the downturn during early Wednesday trading.

Alike recent days, the USD started liquidating some of its recent gains during early trading hours on Wednesday while the GBP also dipped a bit on profit-booking. The Crude prices, which rallied to seven month’s high and are inch closer to $50 mark, kept rising on speculations that the US will post larger drawdown on weekly inventory data scheduled for release during the later of the day.

During the rest of the day, German Ifo Business Climate and the US Flash Services PMI, together with monetary policy meeting by the BoC, could help fueling the market moves. While the German number might help the EUR to recover some of its recent losses, the USD is less likely to lose its strength unless drastically weaker Services print. Moreover, the CAD might fail to sustain its latest sign of up-move as chances are higher that the BoC would discuss threats from recent wildfire and may also signal steps to help the economy. Should this occur the CAD can be up for another downturn.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday proved to be a drag on the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) as no major economics pushed market players towards cashing-out from recent gains ahead of the Fed Chair’s Friday speech which might lack signs of June rate-hike. The EUR remained slightly up with German Ifo Business Climate rallying to four month highs while the GBP surged three week highs against USD after the polls by Conservative lawmaker Michael Ashcroft showed almost 65% chances for the Britain to vote for maintaining its EU status. The CAD grew heavily even after the BoC cut down growth forecast for Q2 due to recent wildfire in oil-sands; however, they didn’t cut the benchmark interest-rate and sound hawkish on Inflation aspect. The AUD and the NZD also grew after the Crude prices surpassed $50 mark on larger-than-expected drawdown in US stockpiles while the JPY also registered another positive day as it seemed that the Japanese policymakers will continue going ahead with their plan for 2017 sales-tax hike.

On Thursday, markets kept favoring the JPY and the GBP while maintained its downside pressure on the USD. Moreover, comments from New-Zealand Government, during Annual Budget release, that the country is stronger enough to cut the taxes as promised helped the NZD. The AUD and CAD also maintained their up-moves while Gold likely is reversing and Crude continue on its upward trajectory.

For the following part of the day, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and the Pending Home Sales may continue providing market liquidity. If the UK GDP prints weaker marks, the GBP might pare some of its recent gains while upbeat readings from the US could help building speculations that the Fed Chair, in her Friday speech, and the US GDP, up for Friday, would be good news for June rate-hike and the greenback. Hence, it would be better to consider present USD decline as profit-booking and wait till the Friday ends before taking bigger positions while continue gaining on small longs of JPY and CAD.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Jobless claims dropped for a second consecutive week, Pending Home Sales rose the most since 2010 and the Durable Goods Orders rallied more than forecast, the US Dollar remained on defensive side as a third consecutive monthly decline in orders for business equipment to the lowest five years pulled the greenback bulls backwards ahead of today’s GDP & an informal speech form Fed Chair. The GBP also dropped against majority of its counterparts while CAD ticked down with the Crude oil retracing back from $50 mark. The JPY remained strong while the AUD and NZD, even after gaining versus USD, flashed mixed signals.

The Friday started with weaker Japanese CPI dragging back the JPY while market players awaited signals from US. However, it seems that the USD again trading strong during early trading sessions, even compared to GBP, and the Crude prices remained weaker with the Gold also bouncing back from $1211 low

As the US details are eagerly awaited, chances are higher to witness little movement during the early part of the day ahead of these releases, which are more likely to provide another positive weekly closing to the greenback. However, a disappointment from GDP and/or even a neutral tone from the Fed Chair might further weaken the US Dollar across the board. Hence, it would be better remaining cautious ahead of the announcements.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With all of the scheduled economics, namely Durable Goods, Housing numbers and GDP, either matching or surpassing their upbeat forecasts, the US Dollar had a valid reason to extend its up-move. Moreover, hawkish comments from the US Fed Chair that an improving American economy would probably warrant another increase in borrowing costs “in the coming months,” helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to mark fourth weekly rise and to head towards registering the best month of 2016. The EUR remained sluggish due to mixed data-points while improved poll numbers showing favor for UK to remain in EU during its June 23 referendum helped the GBP to keep rising across the Board. The JPY dropped to the lowest in a month against USD as weaker disappointing inflation numbers and comments from an aid of central bank Governor, fueled speculations concerning the BoJ would delay its planned sales tax hike. The AUD and the NZD remained weaker while the CAD gained on not-so-dovish comments from BoC and rising Crude prices.

Heading towards the end of May, which generally showed a rally in USD, the US and UK markets will be closed on Monday while early-day release of Japanese Retail Sales signaled that the nation needs a delay of planned sales-tax hike in April 2017. Also, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, in his informal speech on Monday, said the market seems well-prepared for rate hike and helped the greenback to extend its rise.

During the rest of the day, German and Spanish CPI numbers, coupled with French consumer spending might provide some moves during an otherwise dormant day. However, there are many important readings/events scheduled during the week, like ECB, NFP, headline PMIs, which could provide enough of volatile markets at the later part of the week.

Considering the recent slew of upbeat comments from Fed, backed by improved economics, chances are higher that the USD can maintain its up-move; however, Friday’s NFP needs to be given high importance, which if marking optimistic number, can boost the greenback’s strength. Hence, it would be better to have USD longs while staying away from EUR and GBP longs due to nearness of EU referendum and the JPY should also be capitalized while selling.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31-May-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While US and UK markets were closed on Monday, other active financial platforms, namely the Euro, Japan, Australia, New-Zealand and Canada, remained active; however, except Europe, AUD and NZD, none of the other major currencies dared to challenge the US Dollar strength as market sentiment is strong enough to witness a rate-hike in June. The EUR mainly grew with German CPI reversing its prior declines while weakness in Crude ahead of the OPEC meeting kept hurting the CAD. Moreover, the GBP also refrained from registering any strength while Gold stopped its decline.

On Tuesday, when all the major markets are present for trading, the USD maintained its across the board strength while EUR also dropped ahead of the Flash CPI release. The AUD strengthened against the greenback on early-day release of strong building approvals and net exports while the Crude remained sluggish. Additionally, the JPY also dropped further with Finance Minister, Taro Aso, joining the line of Japanese policymakers favoring delay in tax-hike.

After Monday’s half-active markets, the US personal spending and income will greet investors. Moreover, Canadian GDP, EU Flash CPI, US Chicago PMI and the CB Consumer Confidence are some headline details that could offer busy trading-day.

As investors await Friday’s NFP to forecast chances of Fed’s June hike, and there are some intermediate important releases likely PMIs and Consumer Confidence, weaker prints from the same might force the USD to pare of its recent gains. Moving on, chances are higher that the EU CPI might again fail to register welcome CPI and if the inflation gauge drops more than -0.1% expected and -0.2% prior, the ECB might have less hawkish words to save the EUR from further downside. Hence, it would be better to have USD on long-side while JPY and EUR on the short, but require caution.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 1-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Slew of economic data-points, coupled with polls on EU referendum propelled the US and UK markets on Tuesday after observing a holiday on Monday. However, the greenback managed to complete the May month with highest gains in two years as speculations governing June rate-hike mounted after US Spending details surprisingly grew fastest in more than seven years. Additionally, a drop in Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence were overshadowed by the improvement in Housing price numbers and provided the first daily closing of the week to greenback. The EUR remained lackluster while GBP plunged heavily against all of its counterparts due to recent polls showing the “Brexit” popularity. The JPY remained strong on expectations of delayed sales tax hike and better than expected Industrial production number while the AUD, NZD and CAD remained uplifted. Moreover, the Crude weakened for second consecutive day as comments from UAE signaled that the OPEC, in its bi-annual meeting on Thursday, wouldn’t promote oil-production freeze.

On early Wednesday, Chinese Manufacturing PMI and AU GDP numbers were became the market hits. Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI showed activity at China’s factories shrank for a 15th straight month in May while official Manufacturing remained unchanged at 50.1 and the AU GDP registered unexpected high growth number of 1.1% due to higher export numbers.

In addition to the data-points, comments from Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe, matched market consensus that the Sales Tax hike will be delayed. He announced that now the Sales Tax hike will take place in 2019 against earlier planned at April 2017. The PM also mentioned that the Japanese policymakers will take help of structural reforms and fiscal stimulus to achieve strong growth, which in-turn propelled the JPY across the board.

Having witnessing such a volatile day-start, the UK Manufacturing PMI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI are some other details that could continue providing market liquidity. As the USD have registered noticeable gains in May, as it historically has been, chances are higher that weaker US numbers might dampen cues to June-hike and can pare recent USD gains. Hence, it would be better to have patience till the Friday’s job numbers prior to taking any big USD longs while GBP is more likely to decline with Brexit polls and JPY could extend its recent up-move after Japanese PM’s comment.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 2-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

As the global markets entered in the crucial June month, which includes meetings of OPEC and ECB, coupled with Brexit vote and a possible rate-hike by the US Federal Reserve, safe-havens like JPY marked strong upside on Wednesday. Another reason for the Japanese currency’s rally was the statement from PM backing fiscal measures and a delayed sales-tax hike to 2019. The US Dollar became the victim of fastest contraction in Construction Spending in ten months and ignored better than forecast ISM Manufacturing print. The EUR remained uplifted ahead of the ECB meeting today while the GBP kept declining, even after upbeat Manufacturing PMI, as the UK PM is scheduled to speak on the EU referendum in a Sky News television program. Further, commodity currencies remained jittered with mixed clues as a bit up-move in Crude ahead of the OPEC meeting resulted minor strength to the AUD, CAD and the NZD.

Today can also be another “Super Thursday” as ECB, OPEC and comments from UK PM are scheduled to trigger wild moves in the Forex market. During the early day trading, the USD maintained its yesterday’s downside while GBP and Crude remained a bit up. Moreover, the Crude prices also held yesterday’s gains and the Gold prices signal another positive day. At the economic front, AU Retail Sales grew lesser than forecast while the Trade deficit also shrank. The UK Construction PMI, US ADP, Jobless and Crude Inventories are some other data-points that needs to be observed in addition to headline events mentioned above.

Looking at the details, the ECB is more likely to provide dovish statements considering recent drift of data-points while the OPEC will be crucial as Saudi-Arabia plays hard to get individual quota limits for the participants and the Iran is favoring more supply. On the UK front, the PM may promote the idea of UK remaining in the EU while weaker data-points from US & on-going risk-on market environment can continue favoring the Gold and JPY while punishing the USD. Hence, it would be better to wait for the top-tier releases prior to taking any major trade entries.

Have a profitably volatile-day ahead……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 3-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed some wild moves in EUR, mainly due to the ECB President’s dual comments, together with OPEC’s failed attempt to agree on output targets and Saudi Arabia’s pledge to not flood the market with more fuel, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) pared some of its early day losses. Additionally, US Jobless Claims dropped to four weeks low while ADP Employment Change also remained ahead of upwardly revised prior and helped the greenback. The EUR, which initially remained too volatile during ECB press conference, closed on the negative side as market players focused more on the downwardly revised Core inflation forecasted than the improved consensus for near-term Inflation mark. The ECB President also marked dual comments as on the one hand he said that March month measures are getting positive responses and on the other hand he said it was only the half of what the central bank stands ready to do, if needed. The JPY maintained its upside due to global market uncertainty while Crude prices also grew with OPEC result and another decline in US inventories. Furthermore, the AUD, NZD and CAD remained weaker against the USD due to looming concerns of Chinese weakness.

On Friday, the New-Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index rallied to the highest since October 2015 and Growth in China’s services sector, as indicated by Caixin Services PMI, cooled to a three-month low. As the ECB and OPEC failed to have lasting impact on global markets, investors have turned towards US Job reports, scheduled for release during the later Friday, which would affect the speculations concerning June rate-hike.

Fading the recent trend of expectations governing June rate-hike, the Fed Board Governor, Daniel Tarullo, indicated probable risks from EU referendum, signaling that the Fed might refrain to alter interest-rates ahead of this crucial decision. However, Fed Governor, Lael Brainard, will be the first U.S. central bank official to speak after the NFP, while Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans will speak ahead of the report. Also, the Fed Chair is scheduled to speak on Monday after she favored rate-hike decision in near-future during her last week’s public appearance.

Considering the recent turmoil surrounding the EU referendum and US Fed rate-hike, today’s jobs report will be crucial to observe. Even if the NFP is likely to remain weak and the Earnings aren’t expected to provide too-good-to-hear numbers, the Unemployment rate bears the forecast of tick-down and could rejuvenate expectations of June hike, which in-turn would be a happy news for the US Dollar. Though, it would be advisable to not take this as strong positive and enjoy only intraday long targets, except drastically positive numbers, which are hard to find due to Verizon incident. Further, the on-going slew of global market uncertainty, together with comments from Japanese PM, makes it clear for the JPY to rise ahead.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend…

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 6-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Friday’s highly disappointing US job report threw cold water on USD bulls that were expecting a June rate-hike as NFP dropped to nearly five year low and the previous readings were also downwardly revised. Market players totally ignored the least Unemployment since late 2007 and dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards marking the first weekly closing in previous five weeks. On the other hand, the EUR witnessed strong counter-strength as dimming chances of Fed’s rate-hike funneled down the monetary policy divergence between the US and the rest of the major central bankers while the JPY registered strong up-move as growing uncertainty across the globe favored its safe-haven demand. Further, the GBP, in contrast to many other major currencies, failed to strengthen against the USD, together with registering across the board declines, became the victim of rising EU referendum polls favoring Brexit. The AUD, NZD and CHF also remained strong even with not so happy details while gains of Canadian Dollar remained under check after the Crude prices noted down its first weekly decline in prior four as successful OPEC meeting, without any clashes, signaled that the global oil producers are ready to further fuel the macro oil market.

On early Monday, the USD witnesses a bit of short-covering after the top Fed member said that the U.S. economy’s rebound from a weak winter has moved the Federal Reserve closer to raising rates, though last month’s poor employment report might give it pause. The EUR also dipped from its recent highs as German Factory Orders dropped to the lowest since March 2015 while the JPY also trimmed some of its recent gains on profit-booking.

Having faced a huge disappointment during last Friday, market players have now curtailed expectations for June rate-hike and any additional weakness in US data-point might further drag the US Dollar towards south. However, with fewer details scheduled for release during the current week, chances of great momentum are fewer. Today’s speech by the US Fed Chair, the final ahead of the 14-15 June FOMC meeting, would be important for the USD traders to watch.

Have a nice-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 7-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Fed Chair omitted her hawkish statement of “witnessing a rate-hike in coming months”, and held off from specifying any time-frame, in addition to terming last week’s jobs report was “disappointing”, the short-covering helped US Dollar to start the week with a positive closing. However, the same couldn’t be sustained on Tuesday when the greenback again obeyed its southward trajectory. The EUR remained a bit weaker with decline in German Factory Orders on Monday while the NZD remained sluggish when AUD and CAD managed to close in positive territory against the US Dollar on improving Crude prices due to crippling attacks on Nigeria’s oil industry and fresh signs of draws in U.S. crude stockpiles. Moreover, the GBP kept being too volatile due to swift in polls showing “Brexit”.

On early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia refrained from cutting down its benchmark rates further, which was much expected; however, the bank remained silent on its future course and went against the market expectations of hinting another rate-cut, which in-turn fueled the Aussie. The GBP spiked with more than 2.0% gains against USD in a surprise move while a rebound in German Industrial Production helped the EUR a bit. Further, a bomb attack in Istanbul strengthened the JPY and advancing Crude helped NZD, CAD and other commodity currencies.

For the rest of the day, UK Halifax HPI and Canadian Ivey PMI, together with World Bank’s update on the global economic outlook, are likely events that could govern the market moves. With the market already quelled chances of June rate-hike and also smashed the July hike, the USD is more likely to maintain its southward trajectory unless any strong positives from Friday’s consumer sentiment index. The same would help JPY and Gold while the JPY might react a bit slower as further strength of the Japanese currency increases the headache for the BoJ for need of additional stimulus to help the exporters from weaker currency. Hence, it would be better to have USD as a short while going long on Gold and Crude can be a good decision. Also, the GBP should be avoided trading ahead of the EU poll results.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 8-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the on-going disappointment from Friday’s NFP, the Tuesday’s U.S. nonfarm productivity provided additional scar on the USD Bulls’ face as it registered the whole quarter decline, indicating the Fed would take too long to announce the much awaited rate-hike. The EUR enjoyed German Industrial Production and the GBP also stopped its plunge with better than forecast Halifax HPI while the AUD, NZD and CAD rallied considerably with Crude prices marking fresh eight month high. The Crude prices closed at the highest levels since October 2015 as US API showed larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories while geo-political tensions on Nigeria kept hurting the supply side. Moreover, Chinese data released a hefty Crude consumption numbers and gifted extra strength to the energy products. Furthermore, the JPY regained its strength with global uncertainty, as also indicated by World Bank, and Fed’s disappointment which also propelled the Gold prices.

On early Wednesday, Chinese Trade balance details, the last from dragon nation during the week as it will obey two-day holidays on Thursday and Friday, revealed that the import numbers surpassed expectations, signaling that the world’s largest industrial producer is slowly coming on track, which in-turn helped the AUD, NZD and CAD, its big trading partners. Also, the final reading of Q1 2016 Japanese GDP matched its 0.5% forecast against 0.4% initial consensus and helped the JPY extend its recent upward trajectory.

For the rest of the day, the UK Manufacturing Production and monetary policy meeting of the RBNZ will provide noticeable moves to the Forex market as market forecasts have been shifted for the RBNZ. The Central bank was previously expected to cut its benchmark interest-rate, which seems absent now and if there are rate-cuts the NZD can plunge while GBP is more likely to maintain its downturn on expected weaker numbers for Manufacturing. Additionally, the USD is less likely to pare its recent losses and might further drop towards south unless there are drastic negative from the rest of the major economies.

Have a safe trading-day…….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 9-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the Wednesday’s US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, which dropped to the lowest since August 2014, speculation concerning another rate-hike by the Federal Reserve got another shock that in-turn dragged the greenback towards south for second consecutive day. The EUR remained strong enough as ECB began buying corporate debt for its bond purchase program while the JPY maintained its up-move with macro uncertainty favoring its safe-haven demand. The NZD was the biggest gainer of the day as the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand (RBNZ) not only stood pat with the current Official Cash Rate but also said it expects the inflation to accelerate via quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and the GBP ignored upbeat Manufacturing and Industrial numbers with a dip across the board. Further, the AUD and CAD remained on buying spree as early day release of Chinese imports fueled commodity basket and growing tensions in Nigeria further strengthened the Crude to mark the highest print since July 2015.

The on-going raft of details, favoring the Ex-USD currencies, extended on early Thursday with Chinese CPI growing lesser than forecast; however, the highest point since December 2014 by the PPI overshadowed the pessimism and further propelled the commodities basket.

For the rest of the day, a speech by the ECB President and the US Jobless Claims are likely to govern the market moves. As the Jobless is more likely to extend its recent dip, chances of the USD to recover of its losses can’t be denied. Moreover, a dovish statement by the ECB President can also provide counter-strength note to the greenback. Additionally, the BoJ Deputy Governor, Hiroshi Nakaso, said during early trading hours that he sees additional risks from global economy which might push the central bank towards further easing. Should there be a good US side details, or a weaker rest of the globe announcements, the JPY might adhere to short-term profit-booking. Hence, it would be better to stay alert.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the no immediate rate-hike woes damaged US Dollar during early trading days of last week, five week low Jobless Claims, followed by better than forecast UoM Consumer sentiment, helped the US Dollar to pare losses and close the week on a positive side. Additionally, recent polls showing a lead of Brexit supporters ahead of June 23 referendum provided counter-strength to the greenback against EUR & GBP. The GBP dropped to the eight week lows while EUR also witnessed downside due to the same poll outcomes. Though, commodity currencies, namely AUD, CAD and NZD remained strong with rising Crude price. The Crude which rallied heavily during early week-days had to trim some of the gains as rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose by three to 328 last week, capping the longest run of weekly gains since August. The JPY managed its strength against majority of its counterparts, except the USD, as rising global uncertainty forced market players towards safe-havens, the same also helped the Gold prices to test the monthly high.

On Monday, markets kept punishing the EUR and GBP due to nearness of EU referendum while the JPY kept rallying on the same news. Moreover, the USD also pared some of its last weekly gains as heavy load of economics, coupled with FOMC, makes market players worried and happy with their cash. Moreover, Chinese Industrial Production remained at the prior level and the Retail Sales also didn’t reveal pessimism, which helped the AUD, NZD and CAD to extend their recent upside.

As the Australian markets are closed for the day, and there are fewer releases to observe, chances are higher that the early moves can be stretched for the rest of the day. Though, any news on the EU referendum, coupled with speculations for FOMC and BoJ could continue driving the world’s largest financial market.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

On first trading day of the crucial week risk aversion kept ruling the market moves as nearness to EU referendum and scheduled monetary policy meetings of the FOMC, BoJ, SNB & BoE kept forcing the traders toward safe-havens, providing considerable strength to the JPY while lack of economics punished the US Dollar. The plunged heavily, together with some weakness on the part of the EUR, while Crude prices also retraced a bit, paring some of the gains by AUD, NZD and CAD. The OPEC said on Monday that global oil supply-glut is likely shrinking during the later 2016 due to recent disruptions at Canada and Nigeria; though, the energy prices ignored it.

On Tuesday, when the Australian markets are back after holidays on Monday, there are slew of economic releases scheduled for publish. Among which US Retail Sales and UK CPI are likely to generate headlines. During early-day, the IMF warned China to implement structural reforms to safeguard their economy which now has fewer buffers if it jitters again.

With the UK CPI likely to print welcome numbers, chances of its GBP to provide another sell opportunity become brighter as overall trend remains weaker while expected dip in US retail sales could provide further damages to the USD. Hence, it would be better to have JPY as long and EUR, GBP and USD on the short-side ahead of this week’s crucial releases like FOMC, BoJ and US & EU CPI.

Have a nice trading-day.……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following the US Retail Sales registered best back-to-back monthly gain in two years and surpassed market consensus, the USD bears took a halt on Tuesday and doubted that the pessimism spread by latest NFP number might not defeat the upbeat US retail sales, which in-turn could help the US Fed to announce a rate-hike soon. The news propelled US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards closing at the highest levels in more than a week ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting outcome today. The GBP and the EUR remained jittered with Brexit woes while a stronger Dollar and global market uncertainty dragged the commodity basket towards south, which also provided weakness to the AUD, NZD and the CAD. Moreover, JPY and Gold held their gain series intact while higher than inventory build by the API caused Crude prices to dip towards three week low.

As we enter the crucial FOMC day, markets have started being cautious with liquidating their recent USD longs ahead of the decision which is likely to held the Fed rate unchanged. Additionally, U.S. index provider MSCI’s decision not to include domestic Chinese equities in its indexes provided a shock to mainland Chinese markets while a bounce from Crude helped commodity currencies recover some of their yesterday’s losses.

Moving on, today’s FOMC meeting is undoubtedly the most important event of the day even if the central bank isn’t expected to alter its monetary policy. The reason is presence of press conference by the Fed Chair and quarterly economic projection report by the Federal Reserve. Also, UK labor market numbers, US PPI, Empire Manufacturing and Industrial Production, coupled with Canadian Manufacturing Sales, are some of the second-tier details that would make the markets active.

Although the Fed isn’t likely to announce a rate-hike today, recently published US retail sales and spending details might cause the Fed Chair to maintain its hawkish statement. Further, the economic projections, which cut down 2016 growth and inflation forecasts in its previous release in March, might also refrain from spreading further disappointment and can cause the USD up-move. However, NFP continue to act as a drag for the US policymakers and hence it would be in the best interest of the market players to remain out of the USD ahead of the FOMC while keep building the JPY as it is less likely go further in its recent bounce direction.

Have a nice and safe trading……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Finally, the Federal Reserve came out as expected and dragged the US Dollar down on Wednesday. The US central banker held its monetary policy unchanged during the meeting announcement late-yesterday; however, the main point was now around 6 FOMC members see only 1 rate-hike in 2016 unlike the previous being one and the Fed Chair also played down the optimism for rate-hike by saying the upcoming Brexit decision and global uncertainty creates major risk for the US economy. Further, the Fed also cut down its GDP projection while upgrading the Inflation forecast for 2016. The EUR gained on the counterattack while the GBP kept on declining with majority of the UK nationals now favoring the Brexit. Moreover, the JPY gained heavily with the macro uncertainty favoring its safe-haven demand while the commodity currencies and Gold running up with Crude remaining on its down-streak as the return of Canadian output offset a U.S. crude stockpile drop.

Thursday became even more volatile day than the Wednesday as it started with the Australian job numbers which showed higher than forecast Employment Change, helping the AUD for a short-time as a dip in Crude prices, coupled with Chinese pessimism dragged its down after a while. The most important even was monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) which again went against the market expectations and held the monetary policy intact, providing considerable strength to the already heavy JPY. The BoJ avoided any monetary policy change ahead of its general election next month. Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank also announced its monetary policy decision and said that the economy faced downside risk due to weaker EU; however, it left the ni-annual projections unchanged with expected GDP growth of 1.4% this year and 1.8% in 2017.

Having received too much information and a volatile start, markets now seem taking a breath ahead of the UK Retail Sales, EU Final CPI and BoE. Moreover, US CPI and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be additionally important to observe.

As the BoE meeting will be last ahead of the EU referendum, a pessimistic outlook is most likely and can further hurt the GBP while weaker Retail Sales could add fuel to its southward trajectory. The US CPI will also be crucial as a dip in inflation might favor the latest outcomes from Fed which forecast only one hike a year and can punish the USD. Also, the JPY might retrace a bit from its recent strength; however, overall strength will remain intact and it would be better to have JPY long in your trading basket.

Have a volatile and profitable day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-June-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday became the most volatile day of the week, as expected, not because of any action from major central bankers, including FOMC, BoJ, SNB & BoE, but because they stood pat with their current monetary policies. Even though, the FOMC, SNB and BoE were largely expected not to alter their monetary policy but the Bank of Japan disappointed markets without any change, which was expected to happen either in June or in July. The BoJ inaction fuelled the JPY across the board, which was also favored by Brexit concerns and were favorable to Gold as well. The USD, even after witnessing a soft-up to Core CPI and a positive Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, could only gain a bit while the GBP and the EUR fluctuated between gains and losses as murder of a British lawmaker, Jo Cox, a fervent advocate of UK remaining in Europe, stopped Brexit campaign and also fueled expectations that the Bremain may now gain support. The AUD surprisingly left on its downside even after upbeat jobs report while the NZD remained a bit up. Moreover, the Crude prices didn’t rise for sixth consecutive day on expectations that this month supply will be higher after Canadian oil production will restore after wildfire.

On Friday, the markets reversed some of the JPY gains after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso escalated his concern about the surge in the yen to his counterparts in G7 and G20. The Japanese cabinet also said in its monthly economic report that the inflation is rising at a slower pace and provided additional damage to the JPY. The Crude gained for the first time in seven days as a halt in Brexit woes, coupled with weaker USD, helped the energy prices to rise.

Moving on, Canadian CPI and US housing market numbers are likely to govern today’s market moves. However, the market might respond to them with a slower pace after yesterday’s volatile day might have stopped-out many. Though, an upbeat housing market readings from US, which is more likely, can help the USD to pare some of its recent losses while CAD might adhere to advance further if the CPI registers welcome mark due to rise in Crude prices. Furthermore, overall market sentiment will turn towards the EU referendum polls and any announcement by the government, which already stopped campaigns for second consecutive-day, might give another shocking-day to the market players.

Have a nice-day and a great weekend……