Daily Fundamental Dose

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Unlike Monday when global equities maintained their upswing and Fx witnessed mixed results, the Tuesday closed with a pullback from usual direction as weaker earnings report from some of the big enterprises, coupled with IMF’s cut to macro growth forecast, again helped the safe-havens. However, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to mark a fresh four months high on upbeat housing market reports while the GBP ignored better than forecast CPI as IMF cut down its 2017 growth forecast to 1.3% from 2.2% on Brexit concern. The EUR also dropped with disappointing ZEW economic sentiment numbers while the JPY and Gold enjoyed its risk-free status for the first time in previous four-days. Further, the AUD and NZD kept running down with on-going market consensus of a lose monetary policy actions from RBA & RBNZ respectively while the CAD remained weaker due to a dip in Crude prices to the lowest in two-month as smooth supply during the geo-political tensions signaled a global supply-glut formation.

Markets again joined the Monday moves during early trading sessions on Wednesday when the UK job reports and US Crude oil stockpiles are scheduled for release. However, the US Dollar refrained from declining as the overall technical favor additional strength of the greenback which in-turn favors further dips in Crude and Gold prices.

Forecasting today’s market, it becomes important to have a look at the UK Claimant Count Change as it is the only numbers among all three Job details that would include the Brexit time, rest two, namely Unemployment Rate and Earnings, will flash the data through May-end and might already have been priced in. Additionally, there aren’t any big releases to observe from US while an unscheduled economic assessment from RBNZ during the day-end could be important for the NZD traders and can further weaken the NZDUSD to 0.6950 mark. On the other hand, EURUSD is more likely to drop below 1.0900 while weaker UK details can drag the GBPUSD to sub-1.0300 area.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With upbeat earnings from global technology giants, coupled with stronger expectations of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and rest of the major central bankers, helped pressing macro risk-on sentiment towards sky, which in-turn fueled equities and the US Dollar to mark a positive closing on Wednesday. The EUR dropped heavily ahead of today’s ECB, which is expected to spread pessimism even without a rate-cut, and the GBP gained on upbeat jobs report. Further, the JPY maintained its downstream with the news that Japanese authorities are planning for a package of economic stimulus measures totaling $190 billion or more while the AUD and NZD kept running south due to expectations of rate-cut from respective central bankers. Moreover, the Crude prices dropped during early day when the USD was in north-run but gained heavily after the EIA showed that U.S. crude stockpiles declined for ninth consecutive week, the record longest streak. Additionally, the Gold kept on its south with stronger Dollar hurting safe-haven demand.

Entering into the Thursday, an important day with some crucial economics, global markets again adhered to profit booking on the fears emanating from Turkey, which witnessed a rate-cut from S&P. The NZD opened in the gap-down after the surprise economic assessment from RBNZ signaled fear from a below 1% inflation for seven straight quarters; though, the Kiwi reversed after the central banker didn’t directly utter for rate-cut. The US Dollar Index (I.USDX) also pulled back from its four-month highs while the Gold recovered with Crude extending its previous day gains.

With the ECB on card today, together with UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Existing Home Sales, markets are likely to remain volatile enough, signaling the need to be cautious. While the ECB isn’t expected to cut the rate but a lack of demand for its bond-buying program and negative wipes from Brexit might force the President to speak lower and drag the EURUSD near to 1.0900 while UK GDP’s crucial component, the Retail Sales, is likely to dip negative and can trigger fresh downside of GBPUSD towards 1.3100 area. Further, JPY is more likely to witness gains given the US details disappoint traders and mark USDJPY at 106.30-20 zone while Gold has 1328 as a good resistance to break, else it can drop to 1300 mark soon.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday proved to be a drag for global financial markets which were well-settled in their northward trajectory. The central bankers, mainly comments from ECB & BoJ, were known to trigger the broad pullback while not-so-good US economics and downbeat earnings from some top-tier enterprises again forced traders to run for risk-safety assets. The Bank of Japan Governor, Hruhiko Kuroda, was spotted denying any need for the much anticipated “Helicopter Money” which fueled the JPY to mark best day in a month; however, later it was confirmed that the interview was taken on June 17 but the same couldn’t hurt the Yen more. The EUR kept running between the gains and losses even after the ECB President said the central bank stands ready to take needed action and asked for some time to analyze the regional economy before going further while USD ignored upbeat Existing Home Sales as Philly Fed Manufacturing plunged to six month lows. Further, the AUD and NZD remained weaker with high speculation for monetary policy easing from RBA & RBNZ respectively, which together with the decline in commodity prices, also dragged the CAD. Moreover, Crude prices dipped as US summer driving season is coming to an end and the Iraq exports kept rallying, signaling extended supply-glut.

During early Friday, the last and a volatile day for the market, USD again started gaining the strength while commodities were on the downturn as important Manufacturing & Services PMIs from EU, US & UK are scheduled for release. Also, Canadian Retail Sales and CPI are some other details to observe. The Japanese Manufacturing PMI rallied to three month high, but failed to surpass the 50.00 mark which in-turn pulled the JPY back while expected weakness in UK headline PMIs during post-Brexit days have been dragging the GBP.

Looking forward, chances are higher that the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) will be capable of printing fifth consecutive weekly gains as there are lesser important US details scheduled for release which can affect the greenback drastically. However, a surprise positive impact of GBP and any announcements from Japanese policymakers not favoring the “Helicopter-money”, which has now been fashion in Japanese policy board, may pare some of the USD gains and can print 1.1100 on the face of EURUSD with the GBPUSD expected mark of 1.3350 on upbeat economics. Additionally, the Gold could also continue on its downside towards $1300 and the USDJPY might revisit 107.00 mark.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With upbeat US economics and broader risn-on market sentiment, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to print a fifth consecutive weekly rise while speculations concerning additional monetary easing to come by headline central bankers fueled the equities. The Euro remained weaker with soft data-points and ECB’s inability to signal any exact measures to counter Brexit while contraction in leading UK PMIs dragged the GBP towards south. Further, the JPY again adhered to negative weekly closing on market players’ bet of BoJ’s monetary easing and improvement in global risk appetite which also dragged the Gold for second back-to-back weekly decline. Additionally, the AUD and NZD, together with the CAD, had to bear the burden of weaker commodity prices, hurt by stronger USD, and the chances of further monetary actions from their respective central bankers while nearness to end of the summer-driving season, coupled with record high level of oil and gas inventories, as per seasonal formation, fetched the Crude prices down.

Moving on, the present week, which started with a less than expected fall in Japanese exports, carries some of the important details/events that could fuel the global financial markets. Among them, Preliminary reading of UK, US and Canadian GDP, and the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, will grab the market attention. Additionally, inflation numbers from Australia and EU, together with the US CB Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders, are some of the second-tier details that could continue making the markets active for the week to come.

Even after looking at the recent slew of improving US details, the US Fed isn’t likely to alter its present monetary policy; however, it might sound a bit hawk than it was previously and can extend the USD north-run. Further, the BoJ is more expected to initiate monetary policy action and can provide additional weakness to JPY while a dip in UK GDP might continue dragging the British Pound towards south. Though, being the eventful week and the on-going G20, wherein the global policymakers are discussing to form united measures to counter macro risk, any disappointment from the market consensus can be responded with higher than usual strength. Hence, it would be in the best interest of market players to keep on sidelines with JPY, GBP and EUR while USD, AUD and NZD should more be preferred for trading. The EURUSD might re-test its 1.0800 area while GBPUSD signal 1.2900 revisit and the USDJPY keep struggling with 106.55-60 TL which indicates its south-run to 103.50 if the BoJ observes recent market fashion of refraining the additional monetary stimulus.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

During the first trading-day of the crucial week, market players again shifted to risk-off mode as important monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, coupled with headline GDP from EU, US & UK, scheduled during the week, might trigger wild moves. The same anticipation dragged the US Dollar to print a negative daily closing, which could also be witnessed in weaker equities and the safe-havens, like Gold, JPY and AUD, gained upside momentum. The EUR gained on better than expected German IFO numbers and counter-strength from greenback’s weakness while the GBP ignored weaker manufacturing detail and rose. The AUD and NZD registered noticeable gains but the CAD couldn’t enjoy such up-moves as Crude prices tested to three-month lows on higher US Rig counts.

Coming to Tuesday, news from Japan shook the global financial markets as Japanese Finance Minister cut down speculation of mammoth fiscal stimulus by saying the government is still deciding on the same while Bank of Japan might also prove its worth to take suitable actions. Additionally, the Government economic projections also release some pressure off the policymakers to revive the economy. The JPY responded with a bold north-run across the board and the AUD and Gold also gained some ground with the same reason. However, the US Dollar needed to bear the burden and stretched its previous decline as the two-day FOMC will start today, this in-turn helped commodity basket and the commodity-currencies, like NZD, CAD and AUD as well.

Looking forward, today’s US CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales will be the first US releases of the week and would bear market attention. Even as forecasts signal upbeat numbers, a weaker reading would be responded with greater downside of the US Dollar with EURUSD revisiting 1.1030 resistance and GBPUSD struggling around 1.3100. The USDJPY is more likely to extend its recent up-move towards 103.40-30 horizontal support and the Gold might confront 1325-26 resistance-zone.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Tuesday was a volatile-day for global financial markets that initially searched for safe-havens but later on published improved earning reports from technology giants pared some losses of risky assets. The US Dollar couldn’t mark a daily positive for the second consecutive day as a weaker growth in US Service sectors ignored upbeat numbers of CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales while the EUR also remained volatile after the news favoring need of additional monetary easing for the region. The GBP also dipped as one of the BoE policymaker, Martin Weale, favored immediate stimulus as the Brexit rattled British economy and the JPY remained firm with speculations that the Japanese Government and BoJ might disappoint global investors with lesser than expected stimulus. Furthermore, AUD and NZD managed to register strong upside while the CAD remained weaker with Crude prices’ extended decline on higher API crude stockpile number.

Unlike the previous-day which stretched USD weakness, the Wednesday proved to be a good-day, at-least in the start, as comments from Japanese PM, as said by Kyodo News, signaled a huge asset package is on the way to help boost economic inflation. Moving on, the Australian inflation readings, even after beating the forecasts, remained well-below RBA’s target range and signaled another rate-cut more likely, which in-turn dragged the AUD again towards south. Additionally, Chinese industrial firms’ profit rallied fastest in three months but soft investment numbers kept signaling weaker days for commodity basket.

As the day includes, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, Crude Inventories and the FOMC meeting, the global financial markets are likely to witness noticeable moves. However, the GBP is more expected to witness further downside on soft growth figures while the USD will be crucial to watch and might reverse its recent losses if the FOMC, preceded by upbeat economics, sound a bit hawkish than it usually be. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the market players not to take big trades ahead of the crucial releases and have tight stop-losses of 1.0900 for EURUSD long & 1.3000 for GBPUSD long while USDJPY signals another up-move towards 107.00.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Ever since the week-start, the US Dollar has been declining for not so strong reasons than the shift in market expectations concerning Fed rate-hike. On Wednesday, downbeat details relating to Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales paved ground for greenback’s south-run, which later provided strength to USD Bears after the FOMC refrain from providing any clear signals for their much awaited next move. The market responded with across the board selling of the US Dollar even if the central bank said that the Brexit risk has been subsided for the US economy, that in-turn fueled the Gold prices. On the other hand, a surprise improvement in UK GDP and pullbacks in Euro currency helped the GBP & EUR respectively but the JPY dipped for the first time in three days as the news from Kyodo said Japanese PM surpassed market consensus & will provide 28 trillion yen ($265 billion) worth of Fiscal measures soon. Further, the AUD had to bear the cost of soft inflation favoring RBA’s rate-cut while the NZD kept rising with absence of any major details and the CAD remained subdued as Crude prices extended its south-run with an unexpected hike in US stockpile halting a the record longest run of depleting inventories.

With UK GDP & US FOMC have already surprised investors, market players have cut their bets on a stronger Dollar but refrained from adding JPY ahead of Friday’s Japanese inflation and the crucial BoJ. Thursday started with the same tendency of punishing USD but the FOMC outcome provided a bit of relief to JPY and Gold traders. Moreover, the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, strengthened as Crude prices bounced back and drop in Chinese shared favored another stimulus from China, world’s largest commodity consumer. Moving on, the economics basket is almost empty today with only German Prelim CPI, Unemployment Change & US Jobless Claims on the card.

As the market is closer to the end of crucial week carrying FOMC and headline GDP figures, the disappointment from FOMC is likely to weigh higher on the greenback and can continue punishing it. Though, Advance release of Q2 US GDP, up for Friday, might help to pare some of its losses, failing to which can further drag the US Dollar Index towards marking the first weekly negative closing in six weeks. Additionally, Japanese markets are on the edge and waiting for the BoJ to speak for its plan to announce additional monetary easing. With the Fiscal measures by Government already carrying a higher than expected figures, chances of the BoJ to adopt a wait and watch approach, or announce lesser than broadly expected measure-line, could fuel the JPY and Gold prices in-turn.

To sum up, a mismatch between the consensus and actual outcome of headline figures/events might continue fueling the market volatility on Thursday. Given the BoJ disappoints market and the US GDP misses its mark on Friday, the week could close the July month indicating a soft USD and a stronger basket of JPY and GBP.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29-July-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with not so important releases were scheduled on Thursday, surprise announcement by the US Census Bureau relating to wholesale and retail inventories, coupled with strong equity-run, propelled the global financial markets’ volatility. The inventory figures signaled not-so-impressive marks while three week high Jobless Claims and a wider than forecast deficit number of the Goods Trade dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for the fifth consecutive-day. The EUR enjoyed upbeat German data-points while GBP maintained its south-run and the NZD, together with CAD, turned weak on declining commodity prices. Furthermore, Gold prices also failed to sustain its previous day gains and the JPY continued to be on the upper hands ahead of the crucial BoJ decision.

Friday started with a dip in Japanese Inflation and household spending but a surprise advance in Industrial production helped JPY to maintain its up-move. This followed by a sharp rally in the Yen as the Bank of Japan disappointed global forecasters with fewer than expected stimulus. The Japanese central bank announced $26 billion a year stimulus and maintained their bond-buying program but increased stake on ETF against the broader consensus of a further negative rate-cut and a mammoth increase in bond-buying. Moreover, the central bankers also announced to undertake the analysis concerning effectiveness of monetary policy and the statement revealing the results will be displayed during its next meeting in September.

While the BoJ kept ruling the markets during early-day trading sessions, Preliminary readings of GDP figures from EU, Canada and US, followed by US Chicago PMI, would continue fueling the trades by the day-end. Looking at the expectations, the US GDP is likely marking a strong number on increased consumer spending while the EU releases may also impress the regional currency players. Though, the CAD might not be able to reverse its recent downside as the growth figure might dip in negative and the running downside of Crude can further devalue Loonie, as it is nicknamed.

Given the US GDP figures match expectations, chances of the EURUSD to pare some of its recent losses, to test 1.0950, become brighter; however, it is still less likely to mark a positive weekly closing and a surprisingly weaker stat could further damage the greenback towards testing 1.1200 area. The GBPUSD is likely to maintain its 1.3050 & 1.3300 region intact while the USDJPY can hold the 102.30 mark. Further, failures to break the $1346-47 area, backed by upbeat US GDP, can drag the precious metal to $1312-11 support-zone.

Have a nice-day and a great trading……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01- August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week of July played it too harsh for the USD traders as not-so-promising data-points, coupled with US Federal Reserve’s hesitance in signaling clues for next rate-hike, dragged the greenback index towards paring its early month gains and printing a monthly negative closing for the first time since April. On the contrary, Euro managed to extend its north-run with upbeat inflation and the GBP pleased to witness better than expected GDP mark. Further, the JPY was the biggest gainer of the week, also printed a second positive monthly closing, as Bank of Japan disappointed global market players with lesser than expected stimulus measures while AUD and NZD also registered second monthly positive against the USD but CAD had to bear the cost of Crude’s global supply glut. Additionally, Gold rallied for second consecutive month with macro uncertainty on central bank actions and weaker US Dollar fueled its safe-haven demand.

Alike every week-start, Monday triggered US Dollar pullback against majority of its counterparts except AUD & NZD which celebrated a 1.5 year high Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI as a signal for better future demand. However, the said profit-booking in USD might not last longer as one of the influential Fed member, New York Fed President William Dudley, said that the Federal Reserve should be cautious in its future rate-hikes as economic downside risk from Brexit still linger on the world’s largest economy. He also indicated only one rate-hike by the end of 2017 as recent fallout in economics could continue raising bars for the Fed’s mission.

As we come to the first full week of August, economic details and central bankers are ready to fuel the global financial markets during the days to come. Amongst them, monetary policy meetings of the BoE & RBA, coupled with headline PMIs from UK & US and the US job numbers are likely to take the center stage of traders’ attention.

On Monday, following the upbeat Manufacturing prints from China, headline Manufacturing details from Italy, Spain, UK & US are still in the pipeline to be published. Considering the recent round of pessimistic US details, first print of negative marks can extend the EURUSD up-move towards 1.1245-50 area while an upbeat UK reading can fuel the GBPUSD to break above 1.3300 mark and aim for 1.3500 region. Furthermore, the USDJPY can also revisit 100.00 psychological magnet and the Crude might struggle around 40.00 – 41.00 area.

For the week coming-by, chances of disappointing US NFP hurting the greenback towards testing 1.1400 mark against EUR can’t be denied while a rate-cut from BoE and RBA could restrict additional gains of the GBPUSD & AUDUSD respectively. However, the USDJPY can please the Bears with a dip below 100.00 and the USDCAD could again run towards 1.3250 given the Canadian job numbers show weakness.

Have a nice-day and a great trading……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing and a year-low Construction spending details from US, the US Dollar was helped by profit-booking moves on Monday. The Greenback managed to strengthen across the board while the EUR ignored upbeat Manufacturing PMI and dipped. Further, the lowest UK Manufacturing PMI in more than three-year dragged the GBP and the JPY pared some of its recent gains with commodity currencies, like AUD, CAD and NZD. Moreover, the Crude prices plunged below $40 for the first time since April as global supply-glut weighed the prices down but the Gold continued on its up-move as easing waves from global central bankers helped the safe-haven.

On early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) matched broader consensus of announcing a second rate-cut in 2016. The central banker pulled the cash-rate to record low level of 1.5% from 1.75% earlier by indicating threats from Inflation and Job markets. However, the AUD didn’t plunge as the move was much expected and the central banker also didn’t signal any further monetary easing steps. Moving on, the JPY extended its Monday’s downside after the Japanese Finance Minister said a sudden strength in JPY isn’t good for the economy, indicating further easing in pipeline but the US Dollar couldn’t hold its previous-day gains after market players switched to previous speculations of no rate-hike from Fed during 2016.

Following the news from RBA & Japan, UK Construction PMI and US Income-Spending details are likely to be observed by traders in order to determine the moves for the rest of the day. Additionally, the New-Zealand’s GDT Price Index and EU PPI are some other data-points which might generate intermediate push into the market.

Considering the AUD’s hesitance in declining after the RBA and the USD’s on-going downtrend, following speculations of no rate-hike form Fed, any weakness in US data-points can continue fueling the EURUSD towards testing 1.1250 while upbeat details can only hold it around 1.1100 mark. Further, the AUDUSD could revisit 0.7600 area while the USDJPY is less likely to be stopped from testing 101.30 support mark. Also, the GBPUSD can continue trading between the 1.3100 – 1.3300 area unless drastic decline in economics drag the pair to 1.3000.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03- August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With Crude prices slashing more than 20% gains since June and revisiting the early-April levels on broader supply-glut, global financial traders remained afraid of another round of macro pessimism, which in-turn fueled safe-havens like JPY, Gold and AUD. The Japanese Yen got additional boost when the policymakers announced only a quarter of mammoth fiscal package announced by PM while the AUD didn’t care for rate-cut news and extended its northward trajectory. The US Dollar, on the contrary, had to pay for this and slumped against majority of its counterparts as a dip in savings strengthened bars for much awaited rate-hike form the Fed. Additionally, the EUR rallied to highest level since EU referendum against USD and the GBP gained on better than forecast Construction PMI. Furthermore, the NZD enjoyed upbeat GDT Price Index while CHF ignored weaker Manufacturing details and rallied to five week’s high against the greenback.

During early Wednesday, the Chinese Caixin Services PMI dipped below consensus and printed 51.7 mark versus 11-month highs of 52.7 marked in the month of June. However, the Composite Index, including Manufacturing & Services outcome, surged to the highest since 2014. The news had its mixed effects as the Crude reflected with a bit of profit-booking and the AUD, NZD and CAD are still waiting to rise. Further, the Gold prices kept rallying but the USD also recovered some of its previous losses.

While the US Dollar maintained its south-run during the early-weekdays, even with not so pessimistic details, today’s ADP numbers and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be observed closely. While ADP serves as an indicator for Friday’s NFP print, a better than expected number from Services can soothe some pains of the greenback traders and help making the EURUSD test 1.1150-45 support-zone. However, pessimistic readings can further strengthen the USD bears by fueling the EURUSD towards 1.1300 mark.

Additionally, UK Services PMI becomes important for GBP traders who are eagerly waiting for the “Super-Thursday”. While consensus shows no change in the leading PMI, a dip can have larger repercussions and can drag the GBPUSD to 1.3150 and then to 1.3050 supports. The JPY keep struggling around 101.00 and a dip, which is more likely can please the USDJPY sellers with below 100.00 mark while inability to break 0.7630 and the 0.7250 by AUDUSD & NZDUSD might trigger these pair’s pullback towards 0.7500 & 0.7150-45 respectively. Other than the economics, Crude Oil inventories might also play a crucial role as the stockpiles are expected to register a drop and might help the energy vehicle to test 41.00 mark.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday proved to be a good-day for the greenback when a tad high ADP job print, coupled with one rate-hike signal from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Charles Evans, helped soothe some of the pains that USD traders were suffering from. The US Dollar managed to register noticeable gains across the board, except the CAD which rallied on a first positive closing of the Crude prices. The EUR couldn’t enjoy upbeat Services PMI and the GBP declined as monthly release of UK all-sector PMI, from Markit, dropped heavily. Further, the JPY also witnessed a bit of pullback, which could also be seen in Gold price dip, while the AUD and NZD ended on a negative note.

Following the release of some second-tier economics during early-weekdays, market players are nervous on the curical “Super Thursday” which comprises much awaited decision from the BoE, a first rate-cut since 2009, together with quarterly inflation report release and a press conference from the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. During the early day releases, the AU Retail Sales growth lagged behind consensus and prior while comments from the BoJ Deputy Governor, indicating the September assessment won’t be a signal for the central bank’s upcoming actions, failed to provide any strong actions.

As the 0.25% rate-cut is highly expected from BoE Governor, the recent dips in UK economics might push him towards a higher magnitude of rate-slash mixed with additional QE measures. Given the BoE ignores the near-term data-points and only announces a quarter percent rate-cut, which seems already priced-in, the GBP might advance towards 1.3500 area; however, more dovish statements and an extra-monetary push in the policy steps could again drag the Pound towards testing Brexit-day lows.

Additionally, US Jobless Claims and Factory Orders are likely to print soft-numbers and can drag the USD down to 1.1250 against EUR if the BoE again disappoints global financial markets. On the other hand, the Gold and JPY prices might rally to $1160 and 100.70 respectively as the uncertainty can propel their safe-haven demand while the Crude bounce above $40 can extend the CAD pullback. Hence, it would be in the best interest of traders to remain on side-lines and await actual BoE outcomes rather than taking positions on general consensus.

Have a nice trading-day……

Thank you, I appreciate it, if there’s anything else you can think of. let me know

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday became a pleasant day for the trader fraternity favoring GBP short as the Bank of England (BoE) announced largely expected cut to its official bank-rate. The central bank went a step farther from 0.25% rate-cut and also released a 60 Billion Pound addition to its Aseet Purchase kitty while pessimistic forecasts in Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) provided extra weakness to the Pound which slashed 1.6% against US Dollar. The EUR also remained mostly fragile while the USD extended its previous day gains even with soft economics. Further, the AUD and NZD remained strong as stimulus measures indicated extra-demand for commodities while CAD also gained on Crude price pullbacks. Furthermore, the JPY failed to maintain its strength as market players remained cautious ahead of the July job report from US.

As the Friday started, GBP nursed some of its previous-day losses as the Governor’s press conference, just after the BoE decision, wasn’t that dovish but a four-month low of Halifax HPI kept weakening the Pound during mid-day trading. The USD traders kept being curious and avoided taking big trades while the CAD traded a bit on downside with Crude extending its south-run with supply-glut worries. Moreover, quarterly release of RBA’s monetary policy statement missed showing guidelines for its next action and kept the economic forecasts unchanged, which in-turn helped the AUD stretch its upward trajectory.

Analyzing the US details, the NFP might print a normalized figure of 180K versus 287K prior and the Unemployment rate is also expected to have softened to 4.8% from 4.9% with the Earnings moving back to 0.2% growth versus 0.1% earlier reading. Additionally, the Canadian jobs report and Trade balance details from US & Canada, are some second-tier stats that can help continue the market flow.

Should there be a near forecast figure of the NFP, which is six-monthly average, chances of the US Dollar to extend its recent upside becomes brighter; however, a disappointing print of below 150K, or let’s say 100K figure, can restrict the Federal Reserve from announcing rate-hike during 2016 and might magnify the USD declines towards 1.1250 against EUR. The USDJPY is more likely to revisit a below 100 below on weaker US details while strong readings can fuel it to 102.40-50 area. Furthermore, the GBPUSD might revisit sub-1.3000 area while the AUDUSD is near to print 0.7700 mark on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The first full week of August spread the happiness on the face of USD traders as an unexpected increase in QE by the Bank of England (BoE), followed by a surprise back-to-back improvement in US NFP, helped erode speculations that the Federal Reserve has limited means to go ahead with its rate-hike plan in 2016. The greenback gauge (I.USDX) managed to print a weekly positive closing and registered highest gains against the EUR ever since the Brexit announced. The JPY and AUD remained strong as the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and rest of the global central bankers backed both these currencies while the Gold had to test the ground on stronger USD. Furthermore, Crude prices couldn’t sustain its below $40 dip and the consecutive profit-booking propelled it towards weekly positive closing.

Following the headline economic data-points/events, the present week has fewer stats for market players to observe. The economic game started on Monday with the China Trade details spreading pessimism after imports dropped for 21 consecutive months and the exports also fell for 12 of the previous 13 months. Another report also showed that the import demand of Crude from world’s largest energy consumer, China, noted slowest pace since January. Additionally, rest of the day trading is expected to remain quite with no major releases scheduled for publish.

Moving on, this week’s RBNZ meeting, Chinese Inflation readings and Industrial Production, followed by the US PPI, Retail Sales and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are likely to entertain traders. However, the flow of volatility might be mild than what we witnessed during last week.

Weekly Technicals suggest that the EURUSD might carry-on its trading range between 100-day and 200-day SMA levels of 1.1230 & 1.1075 respectively while upbeat USD sentiment, which is more likely, can drag the pair to 1.0950. For the GBPUSD sellers, it seems a good news to expect the pair test 1.2870-65 area while the USDJPY can extend its bounce to 105.40-50 on the closing break of 103.30. Further, the hovering expectations of a rate-cut from RBNZ might drag the NZDUSD to 100-day SMA level of 0.6960 but the AUDUSD is more likely to extend its north-run towards challenging April highs around 0.7830.

Have a nice trading-day…….

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

As a result of last week’s BoE actions and upbeat US Jobs report, the market switched to “Risk-On” during the first trading-day of the trading-week. The macro sentiment of easy monetary policy, except at US Federal Reserve, helped equities while dovish comments from the BoE policymaker provided an additional strength to the GBP bears. However, the JPY had to bear the burden as improvement in global risk appetite shed some of the pre-established safe-haven demand gains. Further, the AUD and NZD remained a bit up as traders expected global monetary easing to be helpful for commodity demand while CAD strengthened on Crude price advances which ticked the energy vehicle gain around 3% after the OPEC President termed the present decline in Crude prices as short-term. Additionally, the Gold remained shaky and the EUR head to bend down due to greenback strength.

During early Tuesday, the trade-flow kept observing its Monday steps and helped the US Dollar; Though, commodities needed to take the bite as global supply glut worries remained intact for Crude and a worrisome forecast of RBA’s two-rate cuts during 2016 by National Australian Bank Ltd., coupled with expected rate-cut from RBNZ, dragged the AUD and NZD. On the data front, Australian NAB Business Confidence dipped to 4 in July against broader average of 6 while Chinese inflation stats remained upbeat with consecutive seventh straight monthly cut in PPI during July and a better than forecast CPI reading.

Targeting the rest of the day moves, UK Manufacturing Production and the US Prelim Non-farm Productivity become important details to observe. While UK details might continue dragging the GBPUSD towards 1.2880-75 on weaker details, an upbeat Productivity mark from US can further enable the EURUSD to test 1.1030 and the 1.1000 supports. USDJPY trades around the resistance and a break above 102.80 can fuel it to 103.30 and 104 resistances while a pullback needs to clear 101.85 to revisit 101.00 mark. Further, the AUDUSD continues on its ascending trend-line and might again challenge the 0.7675-80 area while the NZDUSD can continue on its south-run ahead of the RBNZ towards 0.7000 psychological magnet.

To sum up, the last-week’s market optimism for the USD might continue prevailing due to the dearth of headline data-points ahead of Thursday and the same can keep dragging safe-haven prices down, including JPY & Gold. However, the NZD and the CAD couldn’t hold their recent strength due to dip in Crude prices and rate-cut speculations.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Unlike Monday, market sentiment switched on the second trading-day and pared some of the USD gains as a third straight quarterly dip in US Nonfarm Productivity hinted that the Federal Reserve might extend its pause before announcing rate-hike in 2016. The GBP ignored declines in Manufacturing Production as Industrial Production beat forecasts and the BoE missed its target for Bond/Gilt purchase. Further, the EUR enjoyed USD weakness and the risk comeback helped the JPY to regain its crown. Additionally, the AUD, CAD and NZD also extended their upsides even if the Crude prices dipped on the news that US EIA raised 2017 oil production.

During early-day trading on Wednesday, the Kiwi traders are in lime-light as the RBNZ is expected to announce second rate-cut in 2016 and is also scheduled for quarterly policy statement release, followed by Governor’s speech. However, the ex-USD dimension of the market remain active due to global monetary policy easing bias and helped the Gold prices rally towards Friday levels. Further, the RBA Governor also spread worry for rising AUD but didn’t utter any specific signals to take and hence remained ineffective on AUD which is at three month high.

As there seems nothing more important than the US JOLT openings, Crude inventories and RBNZ meeting, chances are higher that the on-going market sentiment will continue hurting the USD bulls. Though, an advance in job reading, together with more aggressive than expected RBNZ outcome, might again turn the traders towards the greenback. By RBNZ aggressiveness, we mean either a 0.5% rate-cut or a dovish statement opening door for another rate-cut in November or both.

At the technical side, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both trading at important levels of 0.7730 and 0.7230-35 respectively, which if broken can fuel them towards 0.7830 and the 0.7330. Further, the EURUSD is less likely to clear 1.1200 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.1230 with 1.1080 being immediate support while the USDJPY becomes a strong contestant to print sub-100.00 mark and the Gold might struggle around 1360 round figure resistance.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US JOLT Job Opening surpassed consensus & prior, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) ended up registering second negative closing as the recent run of global central bankers’ easing raised hopes that the Federal Reserve can’t provide even a single rate-hike during 2016. The Wednesday was mostly governed by the RBNZ woes as market players were looking for a strong dovish action from the New-Zealand central bank in addition to already expected 0.25% rate-cut but some of the strong commodity Bulls considered the post-cut rate to be too high and kept favoring upside bets on the AUD and NZD. Further, the CAD also ignored the Crude weakness which followed unexpected hike in US stockpile details and the OPEC’s forecast of weaker global oil market to remain active for quite sometime. The GBP and the EUR remained fragile while the JPY kept pilling its strength on global monetary easing backed safe-haven demand. Additionally, the Gold prices also surged due to the USD weakness and run for risk-free assets.

Thursday triggered another disappointment wave counts in global forex markets as the RBNZ, even after announcing 0.25% rate-cut, failed to signal rate-cut in November which was highly expected. The central banker also didn’t lose its strength and maintained optimism to counter the present deflation risk. The NZD reacted strongly to the meeting outcome which could also be witnessed in the run of AUD and CAD, the rest of commodity currencies. The Moving on, Gold prices took a hit when the World Gold Council said the rise in yellow metal’s prices might hurt demand from second major consumer, India.

Having witnessed wild-moves and a pullback trading sessions during early-day, the markets are likely going to take a halt before US Jobless Claims and quarterly release on New-Zealand Retail Sales, scheduled during the later part. However, bearish bets for the USD seems fading as additional improvement in US job figures published yesterday, backed by some profit-booking moves, can help the greenback to close the gain in a positive territory if the Jobless claims prints positive number.

On the technical side, EURUSD can continue trading between 1.1230 and the 1.1050 range, either-side break, with decline is more likely, can trigger the pair’s move. The GBPUSD might again target the 1.2880-75 support-zone, breaking which 1.2800 becomes an important support while the 1.3100 can continue offering strong resistance. Additionally, the USDJPY traders needs to look for a break below 100.80 in order to witness 100.00 mark, else an upside tip above 101.70 can reprint 102.30 on the chart, and the AUDUSD, coupled with the NZDUSD could adhere to correction towards 0.7650 and the 0.7165-60 respectively.

Have a nice trading-day……

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Be it RBNZ or the consumer-centric US details, disappointment was the one thing that prevailed everywhere during last week. The same favored continuation of lose monetary policy across the globe and helped headline equity indices to mark fresh record highs. The US Dollar had to bear the burden of three month low Retail Sales and a lowest print of PPI in 2016 while the EUR enjoyed counter-strength. The GBP was also on its south-run as slew of weaker data-points and BoE’s incapacity to gain required attention on its bond-buying dragged the UK currency down while commodity currencies were on their upstream as Crude registered consecutive weekly advance on weaker USD and optimism that global oil producers will be able to agree of production freeze during September meeting of International Energy Forum. Furthermore, the Gold prices swung between gains and loses and the JPY kept piling further weights with safe-haven demand force.

As we come to a new-week, the situation hasn’t changed much as Monday’s US Empire State Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank and market players have started rolling their forecasts for a 2016 Fed rate-hike. The GBP kept trading south ahead of the crucial CPI detail, to be released on Tuesday, which would cover the whole period after Brexit and might force the Pound to mark new lows. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD remained firm with commodity prices support, which got additional support from upbeat Chinese inflation data released last week.

Taking a look at some of the headline economics scheduled during the week, inflation and job numbers are likely to gain the center-stage of market attraction with US, UK & Canada up for announcing their inflation stats while New-Zealand, Australia and the UK are ready to speak their employment growth numbers. Additionally, the US FOMC meeting minutes, UK & Canadian Retail Sales are extra-fuel to zoom the market volatility.

Given the recent trend of disappointment, chances are higher that the US can continue being silent, in its minutes, when it comes to speak for a rate-hike in 2016 and weaker data-points, mainly the inflation mark, could magnify its downturn. The GBP is also likely to be hit when the CPI will show a weaker number, indicating more room for the policymakers to act upon to safeguard the global financial capital. Furthermore, the JPY might extend its upside as present uncertainty and the inability of the BoJ to weaken the currency can help it put some extra strength while Crude might shed some of its recent gains if some of the global manufacturing indices print weaker number and US inventories disappoint traders.

On the technical side, break of three-month old descending trend-line, coupled with US pessimism, can continue fueling the EURUSD towards 1.1330-50 with 1.1180 being immediate support to observe while GBPUSD seems certain to revisit July lows of 1.2800 and the USDJPY can settle around 99.00 with 102.65-70 acting as strong upside resistance. Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are set to print 0.7830 and 0.7400 marks during the week with 0.7600 & 0.7130 being important support.

Have a nice trading-day……

Fundementals mean nothing i bought on the 2nd of august raussie ate cut came yeah but made a fortune
i also said buy the euro usd on the rate cut means nothing rate cuts garbabe