Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
607

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Adding to the already prevailing US Dollar pessimism, mainly backed by dovish data-points, the greenback got another flop when minutes of July FOMC said the Fed policymakers want to see more economic improvement before announcing the much awaited rate-hike. The news provided noticeable strength to the USD Bears and ignored the better than forecast Jobless Claims and Philly Fed numbers which dragged the greenback to nearly two-month lows against EUR on Thursday. On the contrary, the Euro kept rallying towards north on counter-strength against US currency and comments from ECB minutes that market players shouldn’t see the Brexit forcing the central bank towards further mammoth monetary easing. Further, the GBP rallied with unexpected surge in UK Retail Sales while the AUD managed to extend its up-move on hawkish labor market details. Moreover, the NZD and JPY, together with the Gold held their gains intact with no major updates than the greenback weakness fueling the commodity basket and helps safe-haven demand. Additionally, the Crude prices rallied to July highs after decline in US inventories, together with present speculations supporting production-freeze talks, helped the energy vehicle.

As the market stands on the weekend-door, traders seem in a raw for profit-booking and giving some alternative moves than we have witnessed since the week-start. The same action got help from another round of Fed members’ comments that the 2016 rate-hike is inevitable. However, dearth of economic data-points, except Canadian Retail Sales & CPI, might restrict the USD favored traders.

Moving on, the market players are also in the state of dilemma where on the one hand Fed members keep favoring rate-hike in 2016 while FOMC minutes and recent US details are portraying something different. Hence, next week’s Jackson Hole meeting of global financial leaders will be closely observed where the Fed Chair’s speech will be examined in detail. Given the Fed Chair repeats what recent FOMC minutes said, chances of the USD plunge can’t be denied. Also, GDP releases from US & UK will gain market players’ attention to forecast immediate moves of the greenback and GBP respectively.

On a technical note, overbought RSI and a weekend profit-booking might drag the EURUSD to 1.1280 & 1.1250 support but an extended up-move beyond 1.1370 can quickly print 1.1410 and 1.1430 on charts. On the GBPUSD, chances of its pullback to 1.3050 & 1.2995 are higher with 1.3185 being immediate resistance while AUDUSD might hold recent downside around 0.7550 and can reverse to 0.7680 soon. Furthermore, Gold has 1360 and 1335 levels to watch and the Crude can comeback to 46.50 on overbought oscillators.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend….

608

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

It’s been a fortnight since the greenback traders couldn’t get any positives from the world’s largest economy and felt disappointed with second consecutive weekly negative of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The US Dollar extended its earlier losses during the second week of August when soft inflation numbers, followed by FOMC minutes’ dovish tone, dragged speculations concerning any interest-rate hikes by Federal Reserve during 2016. The market kept punishing the US Dollar with pessimism and the same helped the EUR, which additionally got support from the ECB’s upbeat remarks. The GBP noted its first week of gains in three as a surge in Retail Sales and job market improvements fueled the UK currency against all of its counterparts while the JPY also remained strong even after witnessing not-so-good GDP figure. Moving-on, the AUD couldn’t enjoy upbeat job figures and the NZD, together with CAD, remained strong on Crude prices which registered highest weekly gains in five months due to concerns that global oil producers might get a success in Crude production hold talks during next month.

Even as the US pessimism clouded expectations of a rate-hike, latest comments from influential FOMC members, like San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, kept favoring a September meeting as a live option for the US central banker to announce the much awaited rate-lift. The same supported the greenback in paring some of its losses on Monday when the AUD and JPY were getting the heat from expectations of a further monetary easing from their respective central bankers. The AUD got additional shock when the Moody’s rating agency cut its outlook on Australian banks to negative while the NZD and the CAD also dipped as speculators now expect possible Oil production talks in September might not be effective to curb the global supply glut fueled by middle-east.

Alike last week, the present week’s economic calendar also holds few number of events that can propel the FX volatility; however, GDP figures from UK & US, coupled with headline PMIs from EU and US Durable Goods Orders might continue pushing traders to the edge. In addition to the economic data-points, the annual meeting of global financial leaders at Jackson Hole Symposium, during Thursday and Friday, becomes a center of attention for the market players as the Fed Chair might hint for the Fed’s next policy move during the meeting. Though, expectations of a weaker GDP print and a dovish tone of the US central banker can continue compressing the USD against majority of its counterparts, which if surprises the market, the greenback can easily recover its immediate losses. Furthermore, the GBP seems more on the upside if the GDP figure follows the recent trend of upbeat numbers.

On the technical side, EURUSD failed to sustain the 1.1360 and might re-visit the 100-day SMA level of 1.1230 while dovish US outlook can restrict the pair’s additional downside. The USDJPY is struggling to break the 101 mark which if broken can fuel it to 102.10 with 99.50 being support and the GBPUSD couldn’t break 1.3180 and is likely witnessing pullbacks to 1.2860. Additionally, Gold prices seem coming down to 1315-12 area but a break above 1341 can reprint 1355 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day……

609

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While downbeat data-points and dovish FOMC minutes dragged the US Dollar Index to register second weekly loss during the last week, latest comments from top officials at FOMC helped the greenback to reverse some of its losses ahead of the crucial week that includes Jackson Hole speech by the Fed Chair. However, US Dollar failed to sustain the Friday’s strength during the first trading-day of the week as market players kept expecting that the Fed Chair will spread disappointment through her failure to provide any clues relating to 2016 rate-hike. The EUR and the GBP maintained their strength as recent communications from ECB and welcome UK numbers helped both these currencies. Further, the JPY also remained high with traders expecting BoJ’s expected easing in September might also fail to curb the power of Japanese currency’s safe-haven demand while NZD got surprise boost when the RBNZ Governor said he isn’t seeing drastic rate-cuts coming in near-future. Additionally, the Crude prices couldn’t sustain its recent highs as worries over cut in Chinese demand, Nigerian Output and US stockpile risks have gained additional support when Goldman Sachs said September meeting of major oil producers couldn’t cut the prevailing global supply-glut.

As Tuesday has comparatively more stats to furnish than the Monday, market has been a bit more active since the day-start when BoJ Governor refrained from signaling any clues for the central bank’s next action. The moves got additional support when Flash readings of headline PMIS from EU & Germany released. The German Services and Manufacturing PMIs disappointed the regional currency traders but the EU details remained impressive and signaled that Brexit isn’t hurting the economy, which in-turn helped the EUR to remain firm.

For the rest of the day, EU Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales and New-Zealand Trade Balance are likely figures to observe. Wherein the New Home Sales and the Trade Balance might favors the USD bears and drag the NZD a bit but the EU Confidence number can continue favoring the EUR up-move.

At the technical side, break of 1.1365 can fuel the EURUSD towards 1.1410 but upbeat US housing stat and a dip below 1.1280 might print 1.1230 on the chart. For USDJPY, the 101.00 and the 99.50 range can continue while GBPUSD recently broke above 1.3165-70 and can rise to 1.3230 and the 1.3310 resistances. Additionally, the Crude is up for another round of profit-booking and might test 45.30 soon while a clear break above 47.00 can flash 47.80 and 48.85 on the chart while the Gold observes symmetrical triangle formation between 1330 – 1352 area.

Have a nice trading-day…….

610

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the recent slew of mixed economic data-points, market sentiment remained seesawed during Tuesday; however, the greenback managed to gain a bit and the EUR trimmed some of its recent losses. The underlying reason for the US Dollar to strengthen was the almost seven year high print of New Home Sales but weaker than expected Flash Manufacturing PMI trimmed some of its gains. The EUR couldn’t enjoy upbeat Flash PMIs as German readings kept printing downbeat numbers, which got additional support when EU Consumer Confidence dropped to three month lows, while the GBP maintained its strength UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations declined lesser than forecast. Further, the JPY and the Gold kept struggling with no new major fundamentals and the AUD adhered to profit-booking. Additionally, the NZDUSD failed to sustain its break-out, driven by RBNZ Governor’s hawkish comments, as Trade deficit widened to the highest in 2016 but the Crude oil registered gains as Iran, previously against the Oil production freeze talks, indicated that it might participate to control it this time.

Wednesday started with another good-day for the USD traders as some analysts now see recent improvement in housing figures to help the US Fed Chair, in her Friday’s speech, to keep 2016 rate-hike on table. The Australian Dollar kept losing its strength as Construction Work detail plunged to the lowest since February 2012. The Crude prices also slashed some of its recent gains ahead of Crude oil inventories which might reignite supply-glut concerns.

Moving on, there seems to be nothing major than the US Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories to track during the rest of the day, which favors the continuation of recent USD up-move. However, a dip in housing figure can again pull the greenback towards south ahead of the important Thursday and Friday when US Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole Speech are scheduled for publish.

On the technical side, EURUSD extends its downside and is more likely to test the 1.1250 and the 1.1230 supports while an upside break of 1.1320 can again fuel it to 1.1410 mark. The GBPUSD is also likely to revisit 1.3100 short-term ascending trend-channel support, breaking which 1.3060 and the 1.3025 are likely following numbers with 1.3210 and the 1.3230 being expected nearby resistances. Further, the USDJPY maintains its 101.00 and the 99.80 range while a closing below 0.7560 by the AUDUSD can print 0.7500 and the 0.7485 on the chart of the pair and the Crude indicates brighter chances to reprint 46.00 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day……

611

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Absence of big releases, coupled with nearness to Friday’s US GDP and Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech, kept forcing the market players to remain clam; however, recent gains of the US Dollar, backed by speculations that the Fed Supremo might hint for 2016 rate-hike, managed to make the trading alive. The greenback gauge (I.USDX) finally adhered to a positive daily closing on Wednesday for the first time in a week and ignored a three-month low Existing Home Sales. The same provided noticeable down-ticks to the EUR and also dragged the JPY to south even with no major releases from both these economies. Further, the GBP didn’t bowed down to the US Dollar and kept rallying while AUD & CAD remained in thin-loss-zone with NZD flaunting continuation of its upward trajectory. Additionally, the Crude prices dipped on an unexpected increase in US stockpiles and Iranian communication that it has still not decided to join the global oil-production freeze talk during next month.

Unlike Wednesday, the Thursday has few important releases on card to publish, like German Ifo Business Climate, US Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims and Flash Services PMI. Other than these financial readings that start of Jackson Hole gather of global financial leaders might also make the markets move during the rest of the day.

At the early-day trading, Japanese Corporate Services Price Index rallied to six month highs and helped the JPY to reverse its yesterday’s losses with the US Dollar also revealing its nervousness on important two-days of the week. The EUR seems up ahead of the German reading which might please the regional currency traders while the GBP again behaves contrast to the market and dips.

On the technical side, EURUSD is likely to revisit 1.1225 mark of 50-day SMA with 1.1310 being immediate resistance while USDJPY can continue within its 101.00 – 99.80 range unless some extreme data-prints from US. Moving on, the GBPUSD failed to clear the immediate descending trend-line and can come down to 1.3100 but a break of 1.3270 can trigger its rally to 1.3380-85. Moreover, the Gold broke its 1331 support-line and might visit 1318 soon but a reversal beyond 1331 can re-print 1338. For AUDUSD and NZDUSD traders, good days are still likely to continue unless these pairs broke 0.7580 and the 0.7270 respectively.

Have a nice trading-day……

612

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the US Durable Goods Orders rallied to five-month highs and the Jobless Claims dropped to the four-week lows, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t sustain its previous-day gains on Thursday as market players remained cautious ahead of today’s Jackson Hole speech of the Fed Chair and tried cashing out. The EUR remained strong and the GBP stretched recent profit-booking before UK GDP release. Moreover, the NZD, JPY and CAD remained lackluster against the greenback with no major releases except the Japanese inflation’s biggest annual drop in more than three years; however, the AUD countered the USD as commodity prices remained firm on the clues that Iran’s Oil Minister is ready to join the next month’s meeting which would discuss the production freeze.

Being the crucial Friday, Forex moves remained silent ahead of the important releases like UK and US GDP, followed by Jackson Hole speech; though, USD weakness remained present as majority of participants expect Fed Chair to disappoint markets and drag the greenback to south. Additionally, GfK German Consumer Climate’s print to re-test May 2015 highs extended EUR strength.

If we look at the recent data-flows from the US, except Durable Goods Orders and housing numbers there aren’t any positives for the US Fed Chair to remain hawkish during her press conference later today. Also, the Janet Yellen is famous for providing market surprises and for her wait and watch approach. Given the Fed Supremo speak hawkish and followed her other counterparts at FOMC, who have repeatedly favored a rate-hike in 2016, the greenback becomes stronger enough to print 1.1230 support against EUR while the GBPUSD can also test 1.3050 on upbeat GDP and hawkish tone of the Chair.

The technicals also favor the USD strength unless the EURUSD break above 1.1370 resistance while GBPUSD is struggling to clear the TL mark of 1.3270. Further, AUDUSD keep finding it hard to break the 0.7650 mark and indicates drop to 0.7580 but the NZDUSD remains on the up-move and can rally to 0.7400 on the break of 0.7345 imp resistance with 0.7270 being nearby support to observe. For USDJPY the same range of 101 and 99.80 remains present to observe while Crude can revisit 45.80 with the Gold’s trend-line support break flashing 1312 support.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend……

613

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the upbeat New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders failed to stop the US Dollar’s running decline during early last week, the Fed Chair’s much awaited speech at the annual meeting of global financial leaders at Jackson Hole Symposium gifted across the board strength to the greenback. Janet Yellen lauded recently upbeat data-points and said that the US economy is near to Fed’s target which in-turn strengthens the case for a rate-hike. Additionally, the Fed Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, told CNBC that Yellen’s comment opens the door for September rate-hike and gifted more happiness to US Dollar Bulls. As a result, the USD managed to register an across the board rally on a weekly closing basis; however, it failed to rise against the GBP which strengthened on upbeat UK Business Confidence and GDP details. The EUR remained fragile and pared its early week gains earned from Flash PMI releases while the JPY also dipped with renewed speculations of BoJ’s another monetary easing round to come soon. Moving on, the AUD, CAD and NZD also dipped with a decline in commodity prices while Crude couldn’t counter US stockpile increase and the Gold extended declines on stronger USD.

When the market re-opened on Monday, everyone started following the Friday’s tunes and kept favoring the US Dollar. The EUR, in addition to the counter-weakness, got additional reason to decline as three year old US-EU trade talks again failed on Sunday and signaled more weakness to the region’s economy while the GBP also declined on a day when the UK markets are closed for Summer Bank Holiday. For the rest of the day, the recent USD optimism might continue fueling the greenback towards north; though, personal income-spending details, scheduled during the later-part of the day, become important as the Fed leaders have maintained their emphasis on upcoming data-points during their recent speeches.

Looking for a week, the first of it in September, headline PMIS releases from US, UK and China can continue breaking the monotony of recent weeks while EU Flash CPI and US Job numbers are likely to snatch the headlines.

With the Fed policymakers keep focusing on job market details, Friday’s NFP and Unemployment rate become even more important to expect the September rate-hike. Given the NFP continue printing +250K number, against the 186K forecast and 255K prior, and/or the Unemployment rate dips further below 4.9%, with 4.8% expected, higher the chances that the EURUSD can revisit their 1.1050-60 area but disappointing numbers can again fuel the pair towards 1.1360-65 region.

For GBPUSD, failure to clear the 1.3240-45 descending trend-line might drag the pair to sub-1.2900 region while 0.7450 and 0.7160 can become important supports for AUDUSD and NZDUSD respectively. If the AUDUSD and NZDUSD surpasses 0.7600 and the 0.7280, these pair’s could again rally towards 0.7800 and the 0.7450. Looking at USDJPY, the 50-day SMA level of 102.80 might restrict the pair’s recent up-side, failing to which can print 103.70 and 104.70 on the chart with 99.80 being important support.

Hence, a week to come becomes important to put your bets on September rate-hike and USD up-moves while headlines PMIs and EU CPI might help forsee intermediate moves of the EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. Furthermore, the Crude prices can continue trading in a 45.80 – 48.60 range unless there are some important announcements.

Have a nice trading-day……

614

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-August-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monday kept extending the Forex players’ favor for the US Dollar as dearth of major releases from the rest of the globe, coupled with upbeat US Spending – Income details, helped the greenback bulls to stretch their support while expecting 2016 rate-hike. The US Consumer Spending surged for a fourth straight month in July, indicating a strong Q3 start and brighter chances for the Fed to announce much awaited rate-hike. With this, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) printed another daily positive closing and the EUR, its arch-rival, had to witness downside. The GBP also dipped even if the UK markets were closed but the AUD and NZD bounced-off due to profit-booking and ended on a positive side. Moreover, the CAD has to bear the burden of declining Crude prices which are so due to expectations that global oil producers might again fail to agree on production freeze talks while the JPY also remained fragile with additional monetary easing expected from BoJ during next week.

Compared to the first trading-day of the week, the Tuesday has much active session as a dip in Japanese unemployment rate and lesser contraction in Household spending helped the JPY to regain its strength while surge in AU Building Approvals forced analysts to predict that the RBA might again have to cut its rate. Further, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dipped to the least in 2016 while Spanish CPI shrank lesser than expected and helped EUR a bit. For the rest of the day, US CB Consumer Confidence and German Prelim CPI will be in highlight while Canadian RMPI and IPPI might provide second-tier effects.

As the day kept fueling the USD towards north ahead of Consumer Confidence release and majority of its rest headline currencies, except JPY, are trading down, chances of the greenback to extend its rally on a strong detail becomes much expected. However, a weaker reading, coupled with a dovish statement from Fed Vice Chairman during his appearance in evening, might trigger profit-booking moves at the greenback front.

Technically, EURUSD are indicating 200-day SMA re-test of 1.1110 and if the US details print too good to expect numbers, the pair might re-visit 1.1050, else a bounce to 1.1250 can’t be denied. The GBPUSD also signals 1.3000 psychological magnet and might drift lower to 1.2950 with 1.3220-25 being a strong resistance, including short-term TL and 50-day SMA. Moving on, AUDUSD extended its Rising-Wedge break and is likely to print 0.7500 & 0.7485 with 0.7600 being immediate resistance while NZDUSD might struggle between 0.7200 – 0.7300 area and the USDJPY has to clear 102.80, 50-day SMA, before printing 103.30 on the chart with 101.40 being nearby support.

Have a nice trading-day……

615

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with upbeat Pending Home Sales and ADP figure on Wednesday, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) dipped for the first time in this week as three-month low Chicago PMI, coupled with nearness to headline Jobs report on Friday, forced market player towards profit-booking. However, the greenback gauge managed to post a monthly positive closing, resulting into the first in three month decline by Gold prices, which generally rise in August. The EUR, GBP, JPY and some of the commodity currencies couldn’t also strengthen against the optimism surrounding Fed Rate-hike but the NZD surprised by registering gains on a monthly basis. The Crude prices, which marked first positive monthly closing in three, couldn’t counter higher than forecast Crude inventories on the last day of August.

As we entered the crucial month of September, which comprising many important central bank meetings that could fuel the Forex market volatility, Chinese headline PMI details triggered the move on early Thursday with commodity price advances. The official reading of Chinese Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly surged in August to 50.4, the highest since November 2014; though, the Caixin Manufacturing remained silent at 50.00 mark. Further, the Australian Retail Sales also marked 0.0% growth against 0.3% forecast & 0.1% prior while Japanese Capital Spendings registered slower growth.

Moving forward, Manufacturing PMIs from UK and USA, coupled with weekly US Jobless Claims, are scheduled numbers to make market players busy. With the morning start of upbeat Manufacturing reading from China, chances are higher that the UK Manufacturing PMI might help the GBP to extend its recent bounce; however, the US ISM Manufacturing isn’t likely to favor the USD after the Chicago PMI’s weaker print and can force the greenback further towards south ahead of tomorrow’s important NFP.

From the technical perspective, EURUSD continue remaining weaker unless it breaks above 1.1250 resistance but 1.1075 and the 1.1000 might hold its further downside while the GBPUSD is struggling with 50-day SMA level of 1.3150, breaking which can print 1.3220 TL level on the chart with 1.3055 being nearby support. Further, USDJPY also confronts the medium-term TL mark of 103.50, clearing which chances of its rally to 104.85 can’t be denied while a pullback can show 102.80 and the 102.30 supports. Moreover, AUDUSD and NZDUSD can print 0.7580 and 0.7300 resistance with 0.7480 and the 0.7185 being supports to observe.

Have a nice trading-day……

616

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

A first in six month contraction by the US ISM Manufacturing, coupled with upbeat Manufacturing readings at other places, dragged the US Dollar further towards south on Thursday. The greenback ignored fewer than expected hike in Jobless Claims ahead of today’s crucial NFP while the GBP surged heavily against all its counterparts on 11 month high Manufacturing PMI. The EUR also remained upbeat with not-so-weak PMI prints while the AUD and NZD maintained their up-moves with China’s surprisingly welcome figure of manufacturing. Further, the JPY remained tepid and the CAD declined on Crude’s plunge. Moreover, the Gold price also bottomed out from 1302 and almost 20-year seasonal high of Crude inventory level, as indicated by US EIA drags the energy prices towards biggest weekly drop since mid-January.

After all the early week woes cutting down the greenback gains, the market players are eagerly waiting for today’s monthly reading of US job market numbers which the Federal Reserve Chair and Vice-Chairman mentioned as important to hint for the first rate-hike in 2016. During early day trading, the greenback has started gaining against all of its counterparts except GBP. The JPY also declined after BoJ policymaker said upcoming BoJ, even after not likely to overhaul the existing monetary policy, can provide enough chances to use the present tools to weaken the JPY.

While an upbeat US Job report is more likely with 180K NFP and 4.8% Unemployment rate, market players do expect another +200K figures and a weaker than 150K could disappoint them. Further, the Unemployment rate might also dip to 4.7% and if up-ticked to 4.9 or 5.0%, becomes a drag for the greenback to witness negative weekly closing. In addition to the US jobs report, UK Construction PMI, US & Canadian Trade Balance and the US Factory Orders are some of the second-tier details that could continue offering volatile sessions.

With the EURUSD’s recent reversal from 1.1200 mark, an upbeat print of US labor market figures could quickly drag it to sub-1.1100 but a break above 1.1200 can flash 1.1250 and 1.1285 resistances while a better number of UK Construction PMI can further propel the GBPUSD to extend its TL break towards 1.3370 and 1.3400 with 1.3150 and 1.3060 being immediate supports. For USDJPY, the pair has already broke medium-term TL and can rise to 104.50 but a dip below 102.60 can again show 101.80-70 support-zone. Additionally, Gold recently reversed from 1315 and might again challenge 1300, breaking which 1285 can comeback while AUDUSD can continue trading within 0.7580-0.7480 and the NZDUSD might rally to 0.7355 if the US detail disappoint. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the traders to remain on sidelines ahead of the crucial US details while supporting the GBP in case of better Construction PMI.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend…….

617

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if the last week’s US Jobs report failed to provide strong signal relating to September rate-hike, market players concentrated more on the upwardly revised prior figures and helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to achieve second weekly positive closing. The EUR remained sluggish as soft inflation signaling additional monetary easing from ECB while the GBP rallied for third consecutive week on stronger economic data-points indicating receding impacts of Brexit. Further, the NZD and AUD kept enjoying their higher interest-rates amongst G10 members while JPY again defeated on the grounds of further monetary actions from BoJ. Additionally, the Crude prices also dipped for second week as sustained hike in US stockpiles, coupled with uncertainty on production freeze talks, strengthened oil bears, which in-turn weakened the CAD as well.

The present week, which started with Monday’s holiday in US, Canada and India, has a bit shorter economic-data-line to observe. On Monday, the UK Services PMI rallied to four months high and provided additional strength to the GBP while Tuesday’s no rate-change by RBA and upbeat Swiss GDP helped the AUD and CHF respectively. Further, talks concerning the discussion by Saudi Arabia and Russia to tackle the global oil supply-glut again helped the Crude prices to pare some of its recent losses whereas weaker print of German Factory Orders maintained pressure on EUR ahead of the crucial ECB on Thursday.

Moving forward, US ISM Non-Manufacturing might entertain traders during the rest of the day while monetary policy meetings from ECB and BoC, together with GDP readings from Australia and Japan are some of the headline details that could continue fueling the Forex market volatility during the upcoming weekdays.

As the recent market flow is favoring GBP and failed to disappoint greenback traders, together with EUR weakness, chances are higher that a dovish remark from ECB, which is more likely looking recent EU stats, could signal additional downside to the European currency while absence of any headline details from the UK and US during the rest of the week can continue fueling GBP and USD respectively. Further, the RBA has already provided additional strength to the AUD Bulls and a strong GDP print could add to further north-run of the Aussie and upbeat Chinese Inflation reading can help commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD to witness upside. For JPY traders, a soft GDP print on Thursday can become a strong signal for the BoJ’s monetary policy easing and can drag the currency further towards south.

On a technical side, 200-day SMA support of 1.1125 becomes important for the EURUSD, breaking which chances of its decline to 1.1050 can’t be denied while a break of 100-day SMA lelve of 1.1200 might trigger the pair’s profit-booking moves. GBPUSD is near to 1.3380 horizontal resistance and break of which can fuel the pair to surpass 1.3500 mark but a dip below 1.3250 can reignite selling pressure to flash 1.3100 support level. Moreover, USDJPY failed to sustain its break above important TL and can reivist 102 if the Japanese GDP prints upbeat figures while 0.7700 and 0.0.7400 become important levels for the AUDUSD and NZDUSD traders to watch.

Have a nice trading-day…………

618

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following an unexpected contraction in US ISM Manufacturing PMI during last week, yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI plunged to the lowest level in six years and provided noticeable damages to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). With the recent dip in US jobs reports and disappointing Manufacturing - Services details question the strength of US economy, market players ignored hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President, John Williams, while dragging the greenback towards south against all of its counterparts. The EUR managed to avoid weaker German readings while GBP maintained its up-move towards two-month highs and the JPY also regained its strength as latest news revealed that BoJ policymakers are uneven about next policy meeting measures, signaling fewer chances of any action by the central banker to weaken the Japanese currency. Further, the AUD kept rallying on RBA’s inaction while NZD followed the suit of rising against USD. Moreover, the CAD also strengthened heavily ahead of today’s BoC meeting as recent data-points have been better but Crude prices couldn’t celebrate the greenback’s weakness due to mounting concerns that global oil producers might fail to agree on production freeze.

While yesterday was a very bad day for the USD traders, the greenback seems recovering some of its losses during the early-day trading on Wednesday as two year low of German Industrial Production and a weaker than expected Australian GDP print favored the search for currency of world’s largest economy. However, commodity currencies didn’t lose their strength and kept rising against USD as weaker Dollar favors their export income and better economics.

Having witnessed a bit of pullback in greenback quote, market players might now concentrate on JOLT Job Opening details, scheduled for later today, in addition to UK Manufacturing Production, Inflation Report Hearings and monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Canada (BoC). Among them, BoC and UK releases are likely to help CAD and GBP respectively due to latest upswing in data-points while USD might continue on its south-run should another job details also indicate weaker labor markets in US.

Technically, the EURUSD failed to clear 1.1250-60 resistance-zone and an upbeat job details might drag the pair again to sub-1.1200 area while a break above 1.1260 can fuel it beyond 1.1310. Further, the GBPUSD now has 1.3480 resistance to observe but overbought RSI signals a pullback to 1.3330 while USDJPY signals 100.50 re-test. AUDUSD and NZDUSD can also witness profit-booking towards 0.7600 and 0.7350 but an upside break above 0.7700 and 0.7450 can further magnify their respective north-runs.

Have a nice trading-day…………

619

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday gave a sigh of relief to USD traders after the greenback plunged during previous day as JOLTS Job Opening surged to record high and Beige Book details also found the economic situation as moderate than the previously conveyed modest. The EUR remained sluggish ahead of today’s crucial ECB while the GBP dropped heavily after the Manufacturing Production slumped more than forecast and Inflation Report hearings failed to announce expected optimism. Further, the AUD and the NZD kept trading to north while the CAD weakened as Bank of Canada sound neutral while announcing no change in present monetary policy. Additionally, the JPY maintained its strength as recent signs from BoJ policymakers indicate absence of any action during its September 21 meeting and the Crude prices surged with API registering surprise dip in inventory levels ahead of official release scheduled for today.

During early Thursday, the market remained subdued ahead of the monetary policy meeting of European Central Bank (ECB) wherein the President is likely extending QE time-frame with no change in benchmark interest-rate. However, unexpected surge in Chinese Imports, the first in two-years, coupled with lesser than consensus trade deficit by Australia helped the commodity basked. Moving on the Crude kept rallying on expectations that the official figures might also follow the API mark and will ease the present supply-glut while the USD again adhered to weakness.

In addition to ECB, which is more likely to weaken the EUR given the present QE time-frame gets extended, US Jobless Claims becomes the only reading to be observed. Should the ECB President surprise markets with no alteration to QE and maintain his hawkish tone, chances of the EUR rally can’t be denied.

On a technical side, EURUSD breached 1.1260 resistance and is on the way to mark 1.1300 mark; however, ECB might drag the pair to 1.1200 immediate support while GBPUSD reversed from short-term ascending trend-channel and can continue trading within 1.3270 – 1.3480 area. USDJPY is indicating a quick test to 100.50 with 102.30 being nearby resistance to watch but the AUDUSD and NZDUSD can continue rising towards 0.7750 and the 0.7530 respectively with 0.7640 and the 0.7400 being adjacent supports to observe.

Have a nice trading-day…………

620

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with the ECB President chose not to extend its QE deadline from the present-end of March 2017 and the US Jobless Claims flashed another green signal for the improvement in labor markets, traders fraternity remained calm and didn’t respond with heavy volatility, except a bit of improvement in EUR and a positive closing by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The underlying reason might be the absence of any major economics ahead of the next week wherein headline details of UK are likely to roll out. The GBP remained on downside while AUD and NZD failed to extend their upward trajectory and witnessed pullback. However, the JPY was on the rising mode as continued uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-hike pushed market players towards safe-havens. Additionally, the Crude prices rallied heavily on EIA’s report of largest draw-down in US stockpiles in 17 years propelled the energy prices.

Friday started with comparatively better volatile trading as an ear-day nuclear test by the North Korea and news that the Tropical Storm Hermine moved into the Gulf of Mexico gave rise to Geo-political tensions. Further, Chinese PPI registered consecutive eighth improvement with -0.8% figure while CPI soften as bit with 1.3% mark while AU Home Loan Approvals fell 4.2%, flashing the biggest monthly decline since January and dragging the AUD further to south.

With the crude prices favoring CAD up-moves, today’s headline job details from Canada become important for the Loonie traders while UK Trade Balance is the only release, other than from Canada, to observe. Given the Canadian details print upbeat readings, chances of the CAD to complete the week on a positive side becomes brighter. For USD traders, there are no major signs to observe and hence it is more likely that the greenback halt its two-week up-moves.

Technically, EURUSD can continue heading to print 1.1330 with 1.1230-25 being immediate support while GBPUSD is expected to test 1.3200 mark with 1.3350 as a resistance to check. USDJPY traders might witness weekend closing around 101 with 102.80 being nearby resistance while AUDUSD and NZDUSD may extend their recent pullbacks to test 0.7570 and the 0.7320 supports with 0.7650 and 0.7420 acting as immediate resistance.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend…………

621

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

With a dip in ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI joining hands with previous week’s weaker Manufacturing PMI and raising speculations over the Fed’s inability to hike the benchmark interest-rate before it meets next week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) registered first negative weekly drop in three. The EUR remained firm as ECB President didn’t announce any extension to its ongoing QE, which was much expected, while the GBP declined against all of its counterparts as a slump in Manufacturing Production and absence of hawkish words in BoE’s Inflation report hearings raised doubts over the strength of UK economy. Further, the AUD and NZD maintained their north-runs with upbeat economics and revival in Chinese data-points helped these commodity currencies; however, the CAD couldn’t enjoy such good news as four-month high Unemployment rate and neutral tone of BoC kept weakening the Canadian Dollar. Additionally, the JPY kept gaining support of safe-haven demand while Crude managed to print a first gaining week in a month with depleting inventory stats.

On Monday, global markets kept punishing the greenback as dovish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, the last from FOMC member before the Fed meets on September 21, provided additional strength to the bears expecting no immediate change in Fed-rate. However, Crude prices failed to extend its recent north-run while optimism at China helped commodity currencies to extend their advances. Moving on, Tuesday provided a helping hand to US Dollar buyers when market turned down upbeat Chinese Industrial Production and punished AUD, NZD and CAD prices while EURUSD had to bear the cost of weaker German WPI and GBPUSD dipped ahead of headline CPI figure release.

Looking at this week’s economic calendar, headline inflation and job details from UK and US, coupled with monetary policy meeting of the SNB and BoE can continue fueling forex market moves while Australian Job figures, UK Retail Sales and New-Zealand GDP are some second-tier releases that could continue offering busy trading schedule to market players.

While Inflation readings are likely to be crucial for near-term performance of GBP and USD, upbeat reading of AU job figures, coupled with hawkish tone of BoE can continue helping the AUD and GBP respectively. Further, after upbeat Chinese details’ failure to extend NZD rally, a dip in New-Zealand GDP growth might trigger the profit-booking in NZD prices. Also, the Crude, which has enjoyed a good rise in previous week, might not sustain its up-move as new signs indicate fewer chances of global producers to agree on supply-freeze while rise in US rig-counts could drag the energy prices again to south.

On Technical front, upbeat inflation readings may drag the EURUSD to 1.1140, 200-day SMA, but its further downside might be capped by a broader ascending TL support of 1.1065. For GBPUSD, short-term ascending trend-channel favors its upside to 1.3480-90 with 1.3250 being important support while AUDUSD and NZDUSD can extend their recent pullbacks to 0.7400 and the 0.7210-15 respectively with 0.7645-50 and 0.7500 acting as important near-term resistances. Further, USDJPY signals fresh downside to 100.00 but a break of 103.50 could recall 105.00 mark and the Crude might continue observing its slow upside unless it breaks 44.00 short-term ascending trend-line.

Have a nice trading-day…………

622

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Tuesday proved to be a good-day for the US Dollar as soft economics at EU and UK, coupled with upbeat report of increase in median household income by the US Census Bureau, helped the greenback to register across the board strength. The Japanese Yen was the biggest looser as market players developed a sense of security in buying USD which becomes the only currency whose central bank might adhere to rate-hike in 2016 while others, including BoJ, can continue favoring easy monetary policy. Further, weaker than forecast ZEW Economics from EU & Germany, in addition to less than expected inflation print by the UK CPI, PPI & Core CPI, dragged EUR and GBP towards south. During the run for risky assets, the AUD also extended its recent decline while a dip in Crude prices, backed by IEA’s forecast of persisting Global Supply Glut in 2017, provided additional weakness to commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD.

Following an upbeat day, Wednesday triggered some profit-booking moves during early-day trading and weakened the USD against all of its counterparts except JPY which witnessed major setback of optimism as speculations grew that BoJ will take crucial steps to support economic growth and weaken the JPY during its next week’s meeting. The Crude prices also inched up on the inventory-day after the stockpile report please energy traders during last week while the Gold remained lackluster on weak safe-haven demand.

For the rest of the day, UK Job details, EU Industrial Production, Crude inventories and New-Zealand GDP, are likely to continue making investors busy. While British labor market figures are likely to extend the recent down-tick of GBP while a strong print of the New-Zealand GDP might trigger NZD’s bounce. Additionally, the inventories are likely to print an increase and can further weaken the Crude prices but a surprise depletion can provide noticeable strength to it, which is less likely to happen considering recent news from IEA.

Looking at technicals, EURUSD can continue struggling around 100-day SMA mark, near 1.1200, with 1.1250-55 being immediate resistance but GBPUSD has already broke short-term ascending trend-channel and might dip further towards 1.3100 on the break of 1.3210 mark; though, a clear break above 1.3280-85 can reprint 1.3320-25 and 1.3350 on the chart. Further, USDJPY now aims the 103.50 resistance, breaking which 104.30 is a following upside number to watch with a decline below 102.50 likely recalling 101.80-70 area. Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD can continue remaining weaker unless they trade below 0.7520 and 0.7315-200, indicating 0.7400 and the 0.7200 re-test.

Have a nice trading-day…………

623

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday again flipped traders opposed to the US Dollar even with not so important data-points as weaker import prices stopped markets to wait for important releases scheduled for Thursday and Friday in order to determine chances of the Fed’s September rate-hike announcement scheduled during next week. The EUR ignored weaker Industrial Production while the JPY also strengthened against greenback as majority of traders expect fewer chances of the US Federal Reserve indicating any rate-lifts in its upcoming meeting. For GBP, even with higher than expected UK Claimant Count Change, it managed to close the day in positive territory as upbeat Earnings report favored speculations that the UK economy is slowly overcoming from the Brexit shock while AUD and NZD remained sluggish, although not weakened against USD, on the view that improvement in China might help commodity currencies. However, the CAD kept maintaining its downside as Crude prices plunged to more than a week’s low on rising concerns that global supply glut will continue to persist and leading producers might not agree to freeze production.

During the early Thursday, Australian job details dragged the AUD to south as a bit softer Unemployment rate couldn’t confront seven month low Employment Change detail. Moving on, with monetary policy meetings of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are at hands reach, together with UK Retail Sales and Final reading of EU CPI, it is more likely that the present favor for the greenback might extend as majority of the events/details aren’t expected to flash any positive outcome. Though, BoE’s optimism and/or SNB’s upbeat statement in quarterly economic assessment can help the GBP and CHF respectively.

In addition to the EU, UK and Swiss economics, important details from US, like PPI, Retail Sales, Philly Fed & Empire State Manufacturing Indices, are likely to grab the major market attention. Consensus suggests that PPI might reverse previous -0.4% contraction with +0.1% print while the Retail Sales can disappoint traders with -0.1% shring compared to 0.0% prior but the Core Retail Sales could soothe some of the pain with +0.3% growth against -0.3% prior mark. Further, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to show 1.1 mark against 2.0 prior and the Empire State Manufacturing Index indicates -0.9 stat compared to -4.2 registered in previous month. Hence, market consensus flashes mixed signals for the greenback but Retail Sales are likely to be observed closely and any details of contraction, which is more likely, can further weaken the greenback.

On the technical side, the 1.1285 – 1.1200 range can continue restricting the EURUSD moves unless there are unexpected data-flows from US while GBPUSD’s recent pullback can witness 1.3290 TL resistance and if the UK details are favorable the pair can rally to 1.3365 with 1.3160 being immediate support. USDJPY also seems maintaining 101.30 and 103.00 range but the AUDUSD and NZDUSD can dip further towards 0.7400 and 0.7200 with 0.7515 and 0.7315 being nearby resistance to watch.

Have a nice trading-day…………

624

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after ticking-up during mid-week, the greenback seems all set to register another weekly drop as disappointing data-points for US Retail Sales and Industrial Production raised concerns that the Fed won’t be able to provide its much awaited rate-hike soon. On Thursday, the US Dollar declines against all of its counterparts, except EUR, as more than expected shrink in Retail Sales and Industrial production faded speculations of a rate-hike in next week’s FOMC. The GBP remained sluggish even after the BoE signaled readiness to announce more easing during the year if needed due to lesser than forecast contraction in UK Retail Sales while the growing uncertainty over Fed action kept helping the JPY. Further, weakness in greenback and the recently upbeat Chinese figures helped commodity basket, which in-turn triggered the AUD, NZD and CAD strength but the Crude prices failed to enjoy the greenback slide properly as return of Libyan and Nigerian exports pressured the energy prices.

Friday, the last-day of trading week, started with its random pattern of pullback in greenback prices and a dip in commodities while continued strength of the JPY. However, market players are likely to await US headline Inflation figures, up for release during the later-day, in order to base their next week’s trades during FOMC and BoJ meeting. Additionally, the Canadian Manufacturing Sales and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment from US are some second-tier details that could also entertain traders at late-Friday.

Looking at the consensus, the CPI YoY marked 0.8% figure against 1.0% forecast while the Core-CPI dipped to 2.2% from 2.3% during their previous month announcement and are expected to print 1.0% and 2.2% today. The monthly reading stats that the CPI might inch-up to 0.1% from 0.0% prior and Core CPI can also improve to 0.2% from 0.1% previous. Hence, overall the figures aren’t that negative and might help the greenback to pare some of its present week losses. However, soft inflation figure can confirm current speculations of a no rate-hike in next week’s Fed meeting and can magnify the US Dollar losses.

Technically, the short-term ascending TL support of 1.1200 – 1.1195 can continue holding the EURUSD downside captive with 1.1285 and the broader downward slanting-line at 1.1340 are important levels for the pair traders to watch while descending trend-line continue indicating GBPUSD decline to 1.3130-20 area with 1.3270 being immediate resistance. For USDJPY 101.20 is likely nearby support while a break of 102.50 can fuel it to 103.00 but the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are likely to witness pullback till 0.7470 and the 0.7250 immediate supports with 0.7570 and 0.7360 acting as upside levels to observe.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend…………

625

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Stronger than expected US inflation data, published on Friday, changed market perception for the US Fed’s ability to announce a rate-hike in 2016 and helped the greenback index (I.USDX) to register a positive weekly closing. The GBP plunged heavily on lackluster economics and dovish BoE while the EUR also dipped with weaker data-points and the JPY remained firm ahead of important Bank of Japan meeting this week. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD, in addition to some other commodity currencies, declined on a weekly basis as speculations concerning global supply-glut for Crude prices and stronger US Dollar damaged their demands forces. Moreover, the the Crude got another shock, excluding the IEA forecast of oil supply-glut in 2017, on late-last-week when the Libya and Nigeria announced readiness to restore their crude supplies after Geo-political tensions hurt the same in near-past.

Moving on, market players shifted their attention on Monday from US Dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting announcement on Wednesday, the same-day when FOMC is also scheduled to fuel the global markets, as latest forecasts show that as compared to Federal Reserve, the BoJ is more likely to strengthen its currency, JPY. The same shift helped Crude prices, which got good news as Venezuela said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers were close to reaching an output stabilizing deal, and helped AUD, NZD and CAD during early trading sessions.

With no major economics scheduled during the week, major event risk remains on the Fed and BOJ, coupled with monetary policy meeting of the RBNZ. Additionally, US Housing Markets details, EU Flash PMIs and Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook are likely to provide intermediate trading opportunities to traders. At the UK front, the present UK PM signaled that the formal proceedings for UK-EU partition will take place in January – February and kept signaling further weakness for the GBP. Hence, any more indication for the same can help to forecast Pound moves during the week when no UK major details are up for release.

Looking at the FOMC meeting, the US central banker isn’t likely to alter Fed-rate during Wednesday’s meeting; however, investors are looking for the clues of December rate-hike, failing to provide the same might print noticeable downturn of the greenback. Further, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its Wednesday’s meeting is up for releasing comprehensive review of its current policy framework and might grab more market attention amidst speculations that the bank could favor further monetary easing. However, the BoJ Governor has been praising present policy framework and might refrain from doing anything more, which in-turn could fuel the JPY strength unless a surprise dovish announcement.

Technicals signal that the EURUSD is trading aroung 200-day SMA after TL break and a dip below 1.1150 can drag the pair to 1.1080 and the 1.1030 supports while clear trading above 100-day SMA mark of 1.1200 can reprint 1.1300 on the chart. The GBPUSD is also likely to challenge the 1.2870 mark on strong USD with a break above 1.3160 signaling 1.3230 comeback and the USDJPY maintains its 101 – 103.60 range, clearing which can print 99.80 or 105.00 figures. Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are still left to clear important support-lines and a weaker USD can again fuel them to 0.7640-50 and the 0.7380 with 0.7450 and 0.7250 being supports to observe.

Have a nice trading-day …………

626

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While holiday strapped Japanese markets and absence of major data-points on Monday confined Forex moves during the first-day of the crucial week, more than a decade high of US NAHB Housing Market Index couldn’t help the greenback ahead of the FOMC decision to be rolled out on Wednesday. The EUR and the GBP remained sluggish while the JPY maintained its firmness as more investors predict BoJ to strengthen JPY than the Fed doing the same to USD. Further, the AUD, CAD and NZD also printed a bit positive start due to weaker Dollar favoring commodity prices and the Crude gaining on news the global producers might succeed in talks to freeze macro production. On the top of above, the Gold prices extended its up-move as traders ran for risk-safety ahead of important events.

As we come to Tuesday, when the Japanese markets rolled-on trading after extended-weekend, thin activity at the front are being observed since the morning as the BoJ started its two-day meeting. However, statements in the RBA minutes, saying growth in-line with projections and less worry for housing markets favoring rate-hike on hold, helped the AUD to extend its recent upside. The same optimism for higher interest-bearing currencies helped NZD but CAD remained sideways with Crude dipping down on news that Venezuela forecasts a 10% cut in production to match the present demand, which seems more likely to happen.

Looking forward, the AUD, NZD and JPY seem market favorites at present but traders are worried for the actual results on Wednesday and hence we may witness lesser activity during the rest of the day. Though, US Housing market figures, the last before tomorrow’s FOMC, might help provide immediate signals for the greenback while a weaker print of German PPI failed to provide any noticeable moves in the EUR prices.

On the technical side, EURUSD is challenging the 1.1230 resistance, breaking which 1.1280 can be witnessed while reversal might print 1.1180 & 1.1155 on the face of it while ascending TL favors GBPUSD upside till 1.3080 but a break of 1.3025 could flash 1.2950 on chart. For USDJPY, it becomes safe to expect 101.00 now while a break of which can drag the pair to 100.30 with an upside resistance of 102.50 and 103.10 to be observe. AUDUSD and NZDUSD can continue remaining strong unless breaking 0.7520 & 0.7280 with 0.7580 and 0.7370 being resistance to watch.

Have a nice trading-day …………