Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
624

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after ticking-up during mid-week, the greenback seems all set to register another weekly drop as disappointing data-points for US Retail Sales and Industrial Production raised concerns that the Fed won’t be able to provide its much awaited rate-hike soon. On Thursday, the US Dollar declines against all of its counterparts, except EUR, as more than expected shrink in Retail Sales and Industrial production faded speculations of a rate-hike in next week’s FOMC. The GBP remained sluggish even after the BoE signaled readiness to announce more easing during the year if needed due to lesser than forecast contraction in UK Retail Sales while the growing uncertainty over Fed action kept helping the JPY. Further, weakness in greenback and the recently upbeat Chinese figures helped commodity basket, which in-turn triggered the AUD, NZD and CAD strength but the Crude prices failed to enjoy the greenback slide properly as return of Libyan and Nigerian exports pressured the energy prices.

Friday, the last-day of trading week, started with its random pattern of pullback in greenback prices and a dip in commodities while continued strength of the JPY. However, market players are likely to await US headline Inflation figures, up for release during the later-day, in order to base their next week’s trades during FOMC and BoJ meeting. Additionally, the Canadian Manufacturing Sales and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment from US are some second-tier details that could also entertain traders at late-Friday.

Looking at the consensus, the CPI YoY marked 0.8% figure against 1.0% forecast while the Core-CPI dipped to 2.2% from 2.3% during their previous month announcement and are expected to print 1.0% and 2.2% today. The monthly reading stats that the CPI might inch-up to 0.1% from 0.0% prior and Core CPI can also improve to 0.2% from 0.1% previous. Hence, overall the figures aren’t that negative and might help the greenback to pare some of its present week losses. However, soft inflation figure can confirm current speculations of a no rate-hike in next week’s Fed meeting and can magnify the US Dollar losses.

Technically, the short-term ascending TL support of 1.1200 – 1.1195 can continue holding the EURUSD downside captive with 1.1285 and the broader downward slanting-line at 1.1340 are important levels for the pair traders to watch while descending trend-line continue indicating GBPUSD decline to 1.3130-20 area with 1.3270 being immediate resistance. For USDJPY 101.20 is likely nearby support while a break of 102.50 can fuel it to 103.00 but the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are likely to witness pullback till 0.7470 and the 0.7250 immediate supports with 0.7570 and 0.7360 acting as upside levels to observe.

Have a nice trading-day and a great weekend…………

625

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Stronger than expected US inflation data, published on Friday, changed market perception for the US Fed’s ability to announce a rate-hike in 2016 and helped the greenback index (I.USDX) to register a positive weekly closing. The GBP plunged heavily on lackluster economics and dovish BoE while the EUR also dipped with weaker data-points and the JPY remained firm ahead of important Bank of Japan meeting this week. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD, in addition to some other commodity currencies, declined on a weekly basis as speculations concerning global supply-glut for Crude prices and stronger US Dollar damaged their demands forces. Moreover, the the Crude got another shock, excluding the IEA forecast of oil supply-glut in 2017, on late-last-week when the Libya and Nigeria announced readiness to restore their crude supplies after Geo-political tensions hurt the same in near-past.

Moving on, market players shifted their attention on Monday from US Dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting announcement on Wednesday, the same-day when FOMC is also scheduled to fuel the global markets, as latest forecasts show that as compared to Federal Reserve, the BoJ is more likely to strengthen its currency, JPY. The same shift helped Crude prices, which got good news as Venezuela said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers were close to reaching an output stabilizing deal, and helped AUD, NZD and CAD during early trading sessions.

With no major economics scheduled during the week, major event risk remains on the Fed and BOJ, coupled with monetary policy meeting of the RBNZ. Additionally, US Housing Markets details, EU Flash PMIs and Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook are likely to provide intermediate trading opportunities to traders. At the UK front, the present UK PM signaled that the formal proceedings for UK-EU partition will take place in January – February and kept signaling further weakness for the GBP. Hence, any more indication for the same can help to forecast Pound moves during the week when no UK major details are up for release.

Looking at the FOMC meeting, the US central banker isn’t likely to alter Fed-rate during Wednesday’s meeting; however, investors are looking for the clues of December rate-hike, failing to provide the same might print noticeable downturn of the greenback. Further, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its Wednesday’s meeting is up for releasing comprehensive review of its current policy framework and might grab more market attention amidst speculations that the bank could favor further monetary easing. However, the BoJ Governor has been praising present policy framework and might refrain from doing anything more, which in-turn could fuel the JPY strength unless a surprise dovish announcement.

Technicals signal that the EURUSD is trading aroung 200-day SMA after TL break and a dip below 1.1150 can drag the pair to 1.1080 and the 1.1030 supports while clear trading above 100-day SMA mark of 1.1200 can reprint 1.1300 on the chart. The GBPUSD is also likely to challenge the 1.2870 mark on strong USD with a break above 1.3160 signaling 1.3230 comeback and the USDJPY maintains its 101 – 103.60 range, clearing which can print 99.80 or 105.00 figures. Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are still left to clear important support-lines and a weaker USD can again fuel them to 0.7640-50 and the 0.7380 with 0.7450 and 0.7250 being supports to observe.

Have a nice trading-day …………

626

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While holiday strapped Japanese markets and absence of major data-points on Monday confined Forex moves during the first-day of the crucial week, more than a decade high of US NAHB Housing Market Index couldn’t help the greenback ahead of the FOMC decision to be rolled out on Wednesday. The EUR and the GBP remained sluggish while the JPY maintained its firmness as more investors predict BoJ to strengthen JPY than the Fed doing the same to USD. Further, the AUD, CAD and NZD also printed a bit positive start due to weaker Dollar favoring commodity prices and the Crude gaining on news the global producers might succeed in talks to freeze macro production. On the top of above, the Gold prices extended its up-move as traders ran for risk-safety ahead of important events.

As we come to Tuesday, when the Japanese markets rolled-on trading after extended-weekend, thin activity at the front are being observed since the morning as the BoJ started its two-day meeting. However, statements in the RBA minutes, saying growth in-line with projections and less worry for housing markets favoring rate-hike on hold, helped the AUD to extend its recent upside. The same optimism for higher interest-bearing currencies helped NZD but CAD remained sideways with Crude dipping down on news that Venezuela forecasts a 10% cut in production to match the present demand, which seems more likely to happen.

Looking forward, the AUD, NZD and JPY seem market favorites at present but traders are worried for the actual results on Wednesday and hence we may witness lesser activity during the rest of the day. Though, US Housing market figures, the last before tomorrow’s FOMC, might help provide immediate signals for the greenback while a weaker print of German PPI failed to provide any noticeable moves in the EUR prices.

On the technical side, EURUSD is challenging the 1.1230 resistance, breaking which 1.1280 can be witnessed while reversal might print 1.1180 & 1.1155 on the face of it while ascending TL favors GBPUSD upside till 1.3080 but a break of 1.3025 could flash 1.2950 on chart. For USDJPY, it becomes safe to expect 101.00 now while a break of which can drag the pair to 100.30 with an upside resistance of 102.50 and 103.10 to be observe. AUDUSD and NZDUSD can continue remaining strong unless breaking 0.7520 & 0.7280 with 0.7580 and 0.7370 being resistance to watch.

Have a nice trading-day …………

628

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The decision-day, Wednesday, was an actual thriller for global markets as early-day spikes of the JPY, fueled by BoJ, later on faded and reversed all of the Japanese currency’s losses while FOMC’s dovish outcome disappointed investors and dragged the US Dollar towards south. The US Federal Reserve not only held back its benchmark interest-rate hike, which was much expected, but also cut down the future rate-hike projections and economic forecasts. The Fed’s tone, which repeated likeliness of a rate-lift in 2016, failed to please global traders as a cut in macro-economic indicators and absence of clear directions to increase the Fed-rate in December raised pessimism for the greenback. The EUR and GBP enjoyed the counter-strength while JPY also registered a daily gain as market players observed a no rate-change from BoJ, coupled with extra-ordinary efforts to fuel inflation, as positive signals for Japanese economy. Further, the AUD celebrated hikes in commodity prices, led by Crude which increased on a US stockpile cut news, while NZD pared some of its gains during later-day sessions as RBNZ signaled further rate-cuts in near-future. Moreover, the CAD also gained on Crude prices hike while CHF & Gold rallied on safe-haven demand.

On Thursday, global markets are calm after witnessing huge volatility during previous-day. Moreover, holiday at Japan also provided additional reason for traders to not trade. However, the US Dollar kept weakening against all of its counterparts with Fed’s pessimism still on card but the Gold and JPY started witnessing a bit of pullback in prices off-late.

For the rest of the day, US Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and informal speeches of the ECB and BoE heads are likely to fuel the market wherein the US details might provide chances for the greenback traders to witness a small short-covering session while GBP could continue on its south-run should the BoE Chief favor additional monetary easing. Further, the EUR is less likely to be affected and could continue on its up-move but the pace of advance might slow during the day because of no major data-points.

Technically, EURUSD again bounced from 200-day SMA and cleared 100-day SMA, indicating further run-up to 1.1310 with 1.1200 – 1.1190 being nearby supports while GBPUSD is less likely to break 1.3130 resistance and might revisit 1.2970-50 support area. For USDJPY, 100.00 again proved its worth and might witness a bounce to 101.50 while AUDUSD can print 0.7700 with 0.7630 being nearby support and the NZDUSD might again challenge 0.7380 mark but a dip below 0.7300 can drag it to 0.7230 mark.

Have a nice trading-day …………

632

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Tuesday provided a sigh of relief to US Dollar Bulls as seven-year high print of US CB Consumer Confidence gauge, coupled with hawkish statement from an FOMC member, helped lift global market trust on the greenback, fueling the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards printing first positive daily closing of the week. The EUR remained on the downside after the U.S. Department of Justice demanded $14 billion from Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, while the GBP remained a bit up of short-covering. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD maintained their strength due to investors’ run for higher interest-bearing currencies while JPY seemed sluggish as sustained strength of the Japanese currency was perceive as damaging the export-oriented economy. Moreover, the Crude prices dipped as tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia kept favoring another failure of global oil-producers to agree on production-freeze when the IEA and Goldman Sachs are already holding bearish bias for energy sector.

Investors maintained their favor for the US Dollar on Wednesday when some of the key releases, like Durable Goods Orders and Fed Chair’s testimony, are scheduled for publish while the Gold and JPY kept weakening due to renewed optimism reducing the safe-haven demand. Additionally, the GBP, NZD and CAD are also nursing losses with the recent run in USD cutting down commodity prices and the broader pessimism of UK but the AUD failed to dip on continued rush for the higher-yielding currencies.

Looking at the economic calendar, the Durable Goods Orders are likely to disappoint global traders’ fraternity with shrinking order figures while a dovish comment in the Fed Chair’s testimony might fade recent market confidence and could again drag the greenback towards south. Further, Crude Oil inventories and latest updates from Algeria can continue offering liquid sessions for energy market participants with a dip in stockpile expected to magnify immediate south-run of oil prices. Also, there prevails an informal speech from ECB President, Mario Draghi, which might help predict EUR moves.

On the technical side, the EURUSD’s break of 1.1200 indicates its further dip to 1.1155-50 before challenging the 1.1120-25 horizontal region while 1.1230 & 1.1250 can offer intermediate halts during the pair’s reversal prior to fueling it towards near-term descending trend-line, at 1.1260 now. GBPUSD is struggling with 1.3030 resistance, breaking which it could rise to 1.3080 and 1.3100 with a pullback below 1.2980 support, which is more likely, dragging the quote to 1.2900 mark again. For USDJPY, 101.00 & 101.30 can act as immediate resistance with 100.00 being nearby support while 0.7715-20 becomes an important resistance for AUDUSD with 0.7650 being nearby support to observe and the NZDUSD signaling more of the downside towards 0.7250 & 0.7220 with 0.7315-20 TL being important resistance to watch. Additionally, Crude prices might struggle between 43.70 – 45.10, with more downside expected towards 43.00, in case of higher inventory figures while Gold’s recent dip below 1330 favors quick test to 1318-19 area with 1342-43 acting as nearby important resistance.

Have a nice trading-day …………

633

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29-September-2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Global Oil producers’ meeting in Algeria grabbed the headlines during late-Wednesday as OPEC leaders agreed for a production cut to 32.5 to 33 million barrels per-day (bpd) from its present output at 33.24 million bpd. The decision was the first significant move by OPEC since 2008 and fueled the Oil prices which got additional support from a fourth-straight week of US Crude inventory depletion. With the sharp recovery in energy prices, market-sentiment turned towards riskier assets, helping higher yielding currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, while punishing the JPY. The US Dollar, however, remained sluggish with Fed Chair’s testimony providing nothing but another assurance that policymakers favor one rate-hike in current year which was also echoed by some of the FOMC speakers in their recent informal appearances. Further, the EUR and GBP also behaved lackluster with no major moves while commodity prices rallied, except gold which witnessed damages due to its safe-haven status.

However, the market turned on profit-booking during early Thursday as noticeable moves in energy and commodity fronts were only due to informal talks and some analysts still expect problems to occur during November meeting wherein Non-OPEC countries, like Russia, will also have to contribute towards decision. Though, JPY kept weakening against majority of its counterparts as yesterday’s moves are now backed by more than expected decline in Japanese Retail Sales.

For the rest of the day, Final estimation of Q2 2016 US GDP and the US Jobless Claims are likely to govern today’s moves and might help the greenback recover its latest losses as growth figure is predicted to print 1.3% mark against 1.1% initial predictions. Though, recent weakness in economics, including Durable Goods Orders and PMIs might affect the GDP figure and could continue pushing the US Dollar towards south. Hence, it would be better to wait for the actual GDP before taking any greenback related trades. Moreover, the JPY might also pare its immediate losses ahead of Inflation releases, scheduled for release tomorrow while the AUD and NZD have started trimming their gains.

On the technical front, EURUSD continued failing to break 1.1230 resistance and a good GDP print from US can drag the pair to 1.1200 & 1.1180 soon while GBPUSD is running near to short-term ascending TL of 1.3000, breaking which it can dip to 1.2930 and the 1.2900 mark with 1.3065 being immediate resistance. Further, USDJPY struggles around 101.50 and RSI is also overbought, indicating chances of its 100.80 comeback while AUDUSD is at short-term “Rising-Wedge” support of 0.7655 and a break can trigger its fresh south-run to 0.7600 and 0.7580 with 0.7700 acting as immediate resistance. Moreover, NZDUSD is also expected to reverse from short-term descending TL mark of 0.7300 and can test 0.7230 soon with USDCAD’s failure to sustain 1.3075 ascending trend-line indicating its bounce to 1.3135.

Have a nice trading-day …………

634

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

During the first trading-day of October, the US Dollar Bulls pleased to witness an upbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI that reversed prior contraction-indicating figure and beat forecasts. Additionally, hawkish comments from Fed Bank of Cleveland President, favoring a soon rate-hike, provided extra-strength to the greenback that helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to close at the highest levels in two-week’s time. Further, the EUR couldn’t celebrate its final PMIs as EU clearly told that until the UK PM formally starts Brexit proceedings they are out of negotiation to allow it single-market access which also dragged the GBP towards testing the lowest closing on Monday since 1985. Moving on, the AUD, CAD and NZD remained a bit firm with no major releases and a rise in base-commodity prices due to Chinese stats published over weekend while the JPY kept declining as recent Japanese stats curbed speculations concerning currency’s strength.

Tuesday became another good-start for the greenback traders as worries over the EU-UK relationship kept hurting the GBP and EUR by providing counter-strength to the US Dollar. The GBP plunged below Brexit-day lows and the EUR also kept declining while the JPY is running at the weakest in two-weeks against USD. Further, the Crude isn’t out of the present downturn for ex-USD moves as news indicating higher exports from Iran and Libya ahead of US inventory details continue pressurizing global supply-glut worries. Moreover, RBA’s inaction didn’t help AUD to extend its up-move and the Gold is also running down for the sixth consecutive-day by indicating re-test to 1300 round figure.

Looking at the economic calendar, UK Construction PMI and the New-Zealand GDT Prices Index are the only releases scheduled for publish today and hence chances are higher that the present USD up-move might stretch a bit longer. However, an optimistic print by the UK PMI could help trim some of the recent GBP losses while no reversal of on-going downtrend is expected until the EU softens on UK. Also, the AUD, NZD and CAD might go down and trim some gains on Crude prices declines, which in-turn could provide additional strength to the US currency.

Technically, EURUSD seems all set to re-test 1.1140-30 support-zone while its further downside depends on the US market open while an upside break above 1.1210 could help it print 1.1235-40. The GBPUSD is also weaker and might print 1.2700 mark with 1.2830 acting as nearby resistance while USDJPY broke important TL resistance and can print 103.00 on the chart with a dip blow 101.80 declining the recent surge. Moving on, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are expected to flash 0.7630 & 0.7240 supports but a break above 0.7700 & 0.7320 might trigger their respective up-moves.

Have a nice trading-day …………

635

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with weaker than expected ADP figure, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to preserve its strength on Wednesday as upbeat figures of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Final Services PMI, coupled with better than forecast Factory Orders, helped maintain optimism for the greenback. With recent strength in US economics strengthening prospects of Fed-rate-hike, safe-havens, like JPY and Gold, were badly hit while EUR and GBP took a breath from their south-run during yesterday. Moving on, the AUD and CAD were also a bit stronger than the NZD which kept plunging after its headline GDT Prices index dropped to the lowest since February. Furthermore, the Crude prices kept rallying for sixth consecutive-day as US stockpiles registered fifth weekly contraction; though, its gains were limited by the price-cut announcement from Saudi Arabia.

On early Thursday, market players were mostly inactive with no major releases on hand to observe, except US Jobless Claims. Additionally, some of the traders are also worried about tomorrow’s NFP after ADP disappointed investors, which in-turn makes them stay away from trading ahead of crucial Friday. However, four-month highs German Factory Orders helped EUR to gain a bit while better than forecast AU Trade deficit figures couldn’t strengthen AUD prices.

Moving forward, present uncertainty in the market, coupled with upbeat figure from EU, might trigger a short-term reversal in USD that can help rising JPY and Gold prices; though, major attention will be given to Job market details and an upbeat print of the NFP beyond 180K current-year average could brighten the chances of December rate-hike. Hence, it would be better not to take any big trades during the day while short-term opportunities against greenback could be materialized.

On the technical front, EURUSD might not dip below 1.1180 support and can print 1.1230 while GBPUSD is again going south and can revisit 1.2685 mark prior to targeting 1.2600 with 1.2770-75 acting as nearby resistance. For USDJPY, 100-day SMA level of 103.70 can limit the pair’s further upside and a pullback below 103.30 reigniting chances for its 102.80 re-test but the Gold prices are less likely to strengthen unless breaking 1278 by continued showing south-run to 1255-58 support-zone. Further, AUDUSD broke its 0.7590 support and is coming down towards 0.7560, 0.7530 downside figures while an upswing beyond 0.7590 could confined by 0.7640. Moreover, NZDUSD is also weak and indicates 0.7120, 0.7080 re-test but a break above 0.7180 can fuel it to 0.7220.

Have a nice trading-day …………

636

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following softer than expected US Core CPI data, disappointing Housing Starts kept nurturing greenback bears on Wednesday; however, upbeat Building Permits and Beige Book details confined the US currency’s major downside. The EUR traders remained cautious ahead of today’s ECB meeting while the GBP couldn’t strengthen even after Claimant Count lagged behind consensus and prior. Further, the JPY and the Gold prices kept enjoying safe-haven support and the Crude got additional reason to rally towards June high when US stockpiles surprisingly declined and Saudi Arabia signaled more likeliness of November production-freeze agreement. Additionally, the AUD and NZD managed to extend their north-runs but the CAD failed to rise as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor favored further monetary policy easing.

Thursday got a busy start for traders when the AU Employment Change plunged to the lowest since February 2015 and dragged the AUD across the board. Though, following analysis of a dip in Unemployment rate and positive NAB Quarterly Business Confidence helped trimming some of its losses. Moving forward, UK Retail Sales, ECB’s monetary policy meeting and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, together with Jobless Claims, are likely to keep market players on desk.

With the latest communication of ECB indicating more likeliness of QE tapering before it ends around March 2017, EUR traders are showing dissent over the signal as regional economics aren’t promising to back such move. Hence, even if the central banker isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy, Governor’s press conference will be closely examined. Given Mr. Draghi maintains his hawk-mode, which is less likely, the EUR could reverse its recent losses and rise to 1.1030 resistance, else on a dovish tone, the regional currency could test 1.0900 mark.

Other than ECB, UK Retail Sales could also be watched as latest data-points from Britain have been upbeat and an advance of an important part of UK GDP could propel the GBPUSD to 1.2330 but a weaker print can continue dragging the pair to 1.2220. Additionally, USDJPY might bounce-off from 103.85 TL and can revisit 103.30 but a break of which can rally to 104.50 while AUDUSD is trading at 0.7650 horizontal support and may take a U-turn to 0.7685; however, NZDUSD is more promising for a return to 0.7250 with a break of 0.7185 TL indicating a drag till 0.7130.

Have a nice trading-day …………

637

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank flipped global traders in favor of the US Dollar on Thursday as the President, Mario Draghi, turned down his previous signal of QE tapering before its scheduled closing on March 2017. Market players took it as a sign of prolonged easy monetary policy by the regional central banker and dragged the EUR across the board. The greenback, on the other hand, got a surprise hike in Existing Home Sales after earlier two-month dip and the Philly Fed also surpassed forecast, helping the US Currency to register first positive daily closing in a week. The GBP remained weaker as UK Retail Sales failed to match 0.3% forecast while the AUD had to bear the cost of downbeat jobs report. Further, the NZD and CAD also joined commodity currencies’ downturn as Crude prices slide after Russian Oil producer signaled increased output and the Nigeria cut down its oil prices. Moreover, the Gold and JPY also weakened on the investors’ rush towards US Dollar.

During early Friday, Bank of Japan Governor said that the central bank may stretch its targeted time for inflation goal and weakened the JPY while a magnitude 6.6 earthquake in Japan provided additional downside to the Japanese currency. Looking forward, the on-going EU Summit and the Canadian CPI-Retail Sales are likely news that could propel the market moves.

While UK PM kept repeating her wish to start EU-UK divorce proceedings from March 2017, some at the EU might ask for details and could also discuss harsh measures that could be levied on the nation. If so, the same could hurt the GBP further while giving few updates for the EUR direction. Additionally, the Canadian details are less likely to help the CAD as the Crude is still on its weaker side and previous stats from the nation haven’t been so good. Hence, weak prints of the CPI-Retail Sales could further propel the USDCAD to 1.3300 with 1.3160 being immediate support.

Technically, the EURUSD has breached 1.0900 support-line and might go down till 1.0825-20 while an upward swing beyond 1.0900 can have 1.0950-60 area as important resistance. The GBPUSD is also indicating downside till 1.2180 with 1.2300 being immediate support and the USDJPY struggles between 103.00 and the 104.20. For AUDUSD a bit bounce till 0.7660 is likely with a dip below 0.7615 dragging it to 0.7580 while NZDUSD is less likely to strengthen and can test 0.7140-30 region with 0.7200 acting as nearby resistance.

Have a nice trading-day …………

638

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be another happy-day for the US Dollar Bulls when the Flash reading of Manufacturing PMI tested the year’s high while the same strength of EU Flash PMIs, Manufacturing and Services both, helped the Euro region currency to halt its running decline. The GBP gained a bit on short-covering moves while improvement in Manufacturing readings strengthened commodity currencies, like AUD and CAD, but the NZD couldn’t rise on rate-cut worries. Further, the JPY and the Gold witnessed lack of safe-haven support as positive prints at EU & US pared market fears and the Crude prices dropped on news that the Iraq and Russia are stepping back from supporting global Oil production-freeze.

Alike first-day of the week, Tuesday also has the same EU and US details to rule market-moves wherein German Ifo Business Climate and the US CB Consumer Confidence are the headline figures to observe. During the early-day trading, the EUR and Gold kept gaining while AUD and JPY remained a bit on the weaker-side. Moreover, comments from the BoC Governor that the last-week’s signal to favor easy monetary policy isn’t a sure thing to come soon further strengthened the CAD.

Further, the recent rout of positive economics are likely to continue helping EUR and USD but the US Confidence might pare a bit and can trigger softer moves for the greenback while heads of BoE and ECB are scheduled for a speech and can become decisive for both these currencies. Though, EURUSD and GBPUSD continue remaining weaker unless they break 1.0950 and the 1.2280 immediate resistance while on the downside 1.0830-25 and the 1.2170 can act as adjacent supports.

The USDJPY again confronts 104.50-60 horizontal-region and is likely to break its this-time with a signals to print 105.20 while 104.00 becomes nearby support to look-after. For AUDUSD and NZDUSD, both the pairs are weaker and can visit 0.7580 and the 0.7085 with 0.7660 and the 0.7160 being resistanes to watch. However, the USDCAD is more likely to break 1.3400 as it failed to 1.3250 support and the Crude prices can again aim for 51.00 with 49.30 seems support-levels to look.

Have a nice trading-day …………

639

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if previous optimism for the USD and upbeat reading of S&P Home Price Index fueled the I.USDX to fresh eight-month high during early-Tuesday, an unexpectedly weaker CB Consumer Confindence gauge curbed additional gains of the greenback. However, the EUR managed to extend its recent upside after German IfO Business Confidence joined positive-PMI lane and flashed the highest print since April 2014 while the GBP again dipped to south as BoE Governor signaled monetary policy moves at its next meeting. Further, the JPY also remained weaker but the Gold rallied on festival buying from India, world’s second largest consumer. Moreover, the AUD and NZD maintained their north-run despite Crude’s plunge on Russian indication to not abide by OPEC production-cut, which in-turn rejuvenated supply-glut worries and dragged CAD down.

Adding to the on-going run of commodity currencies, lead by AUD, Australian Inflation data on Wednesday provided noticeable strength to the Aussie as better than forecast CPI figures indicate no rate-cuts from RBA in near-future. The NZD also followed the suit while CAD pared some of its losses after Crude prices stopped further downside eyeing today’s US stockpile report. Furthermore, the GBP extended its weakness while JPY took a break from south-run and the EUR kept remaining firm with no major economics left for publish during the rest of the week.

Moving forward, the US New Home Sales and New-Zealand Trade Balance are the only economics for market players to observe while US Crude inventory data will be more important for CAD traders. Considering the US housing sector strength, an upbeat print of the New Home Sales could drag the EURUSD to 1.0865-60 while a weakness reading can continue favoring the pair’s short-covering session to 1.0950. For NZDUSD, likely reduction in trade-deficit might help continue fueling the pair to surpass 0.7200 mark while a dip below 0.7120 could re-print 0.7065-60 on the chart.

The AUDUSD might extend its north-run to 0.7730, breaking which 0.7800 can be expected while profit-booking moves can drag the pair to 0.7640 support. Further, the GBPUSD is also likely to rest around 1.2130 support, breaking which 1.2080 and 1.2000 can come into play but an upside break above 1.2250 can fuel it to 1.2300. Additionally, the USDJPY reversed from 104.85 resistance and might re-test 103.50 support; though, a break of which can test 105.30-50 region.

To sum up, with no major releases scheduled for publish and the presently unclear market situation, chances of the USDJPY and AUDUSD up-moves are brighter while EURUSD and GBPUSD can witness pullback moves depending upon US details.

Have a nice trading-day …………

640

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday didn’t quite please forex market players, especially not to the USD traders, as mixed economic data-points kept troubling participants ahead of front-line US & UK details, scheduled for release today and tomorrow. The USD had to bear the burden of lower than expected New Home Sales and widening Goods Trade deficit by ignoring the previously revised down figure for housing indicator and an upbeat Flash Services PMI; however, the EUR managed to extend its recent north-run and GBP also witnessed an uptick. Further, the JPY remained weaker on speculations that BoJ could take some measures to confirm the Japanese currency’s weakness during next week’s policy meeting while the AUD gained on strong inflation figures but the NZD has to liquidate its earlier gains on wider than forecast Trade deficit. Additionally, the CAD kept weakening on soft crude prices even if the US stockpiles registered declines as traders mentioned the dip in inventory was mainly concentrated on the West Coast, which remains negligible.

Moving forward, Thursday becomes one of the two important days of the current week as UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales figures are up for release today. Market players have started showing the active mood since early today when the news of political turmoil in Venezuela lifted the Crude a bit up while GBP is again moving down ahead of growth figures. Further, the JPY is gaining a bit on market worries about UK & US details while AUD dipped with higher than forecast import price declines indicating subdued inflation and RBA rate-cut.

Looking at the economic forecasts, the UK GDP is likely to print 0.3% mark, lesser than the upwardly revised 0.7% prior. The same becomes more important as it would contain whole of the post-Brexit period and is more likely to disappoint Pound traders who witnessed recent upticks. Further, the US Core Durable Good Orders and Pending Home Sales are both likely to reverse their previous downsides and hence have additional strength to fuel the greenback again towards north. However, the GBP isn’t yet out of its bearish mode and a strong GDP could become a trigger for the currency to register its fresh advances while disappointment from US details can continue dragging the greenback to south.

On the technical side, descending trend-channel resistance of 1.0930 and the 1.0850 are likely important levels for the EURUSD traders to watch while GBPUSD might continue observing 1.2250 – 1.2150 range. USDJPY again failed to surpass 105.00 mark but an upward slanting trend-line support of 104.10 becomes important but the AUDUSD is testing immediate TL support around 0.7600 and can bounce to 0.7670 resistance, failing to which can drag the Aussie to 0.7580 & 0.7530 supports. Further, the NZDUSD is also likely to keep observing 0.7120 – 0.7180 range while USDCAD’s failure to clear 1.3400 mark can drag it to 1.3350.

Have a nice trading-day …………

641

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – October – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday’s slew of positive Core Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales helped strengthen expectations that the US economy is strong enough to register robust growth figure today and can bear another Fed-rate hike, which in-turn propelled the greenback index (I.USDX) to north. Moving further, the GBP flashed mixed signals as a surprise hike in UK GDP faded worries about the British economy’s strength after Brexit and signaled no rate-cuts from the BoE while EUR remained firm as traders kept celebrating after-shocks of recent upbeat EU figures. Additionally, the JPY maintained its weakness due to lack of safe-haven buying during present optimistic markets but the Gold didn’t dip with Indian festival-purchase support. Moreover, Crude also rose as some of the Gulf nations backed OPEC production-freeze move while AUD and NZD dipped heavily on the back of technical breakdown mixed with profit-booking.

Having witnessed a much needed green signal from US economic calendar, global forex traders are favoring the US Dollar since Friday-start on expectations of upbeat Q3 2016 GDP. The EUR and GBP also started loosing while the JPY held a bit firm after Japanese inflation figures contracted lesser than forecast with a dip in Unemployment rate. Also, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, weakened a bit more due to stronger USD favoring less import demands while Gold is heading to register a range-bound week as physical buying support confronts with strong USD.

Looking at today’s GDP figure, the growth mark is expected to flash 2.5% against 1.4% prior and six-month average of 1.1%. The actual print is more likely to please greenback buyers as pickup in Consumer spending and strong Job figures could help upvote the stat and can favor Fed’s another rate-hike. However, a disappointment of below 2.0% GDP would witness higher repercussion and can drag the US Dollar to liquidate its recent gains and might raise the bar for the Fed’s much awaited rate-increase decision.

Technically, the EURUSD might revisit 1.0850 and the 1.0800 supports with a break of 1.0950 opening door for 1.1000 mark while the GBPUSD should be cautiously observed if it breaks 1.2080 with an upside resistance of 1.2270 being important.
Further, the USDJPY cleared 105.30 and is likely headin to 106.00 with 104.80 being nearby support and the USDCAD again aims to break 1.3400 – 1.3410 region to test 1.3450 but a pullback below 1.3370 can disappoint pair Bulls. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are more likely to extend their recent south-run with 0.7530 and 0.7090 being nearby rest-points; though, an upside break above 0.7620 and 0.7150 could negate its latest weakness.

To sum up, with the recently upbeat data-points favoring strong US GDP figures, the greenback is likely to continue rallying higher but the strength will be more in comparison to AUD, NZD and CAD than EUR and GBP. In case of a disappointment, EURUSD and GBPUSD could register noticeable gains while Gold and Crude might also witness additional reason to rise.

Have a nice trading-day …………

642

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday proved to be another bad-day for the USD traders as upbeat Factory Orders couldn’t confront weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & three-month high Jobless Claims amidst on-going uncertainty concerning next week’s Presidential election. The EUR also adhered to profit-booking but strengthened against CAD & CHF while GBP registered across the board rally with UK High-court hearing on Brexit ordered present government to take parliamentary approval to start Article 50 proceedings, which receded some of the Brexit fears for the time-being, and BoE published a hawkish Quarterly Inflation report by curbing chances of any further rate-cuts in the present year. Further, the JPY and Gold maintained their upward trajectory by taking advantage of present macro uncertainty while AUD and NZD prices also extended their upsides with positive economics and optimistic comments from respective central banks signaled less bias towards loose monetary policy. Moreover, Oil prices kept declining as news that North-Sea producers will ship the most oil in more than four years in December.

Unlike all other days of the week, the market shifted back to favoring US Dollar on early Friday ahead of the US Jobs report which is likely to provide set of positive figures to fuel speculations concerning December rate-hike. However, some among analyst fraternity do expect the Labor Force Participation Rate to be a spoiler and could restrict excessive gains of the greenback. The Australian Dollar got another boost when Retail Sales rallied to more than a year’s high and RBA statement revealed few upbeat notes about its own economy while expecting recovery in China, its biggest trading partner. However, the JPY and NZD are a bit weaker at the moment while GBP has also registered a bit pullback.

The US NFP and Unemployment are likely to register 174K and 4.9% mark against their 156K and 5.0% respective priors while the Average Earnings are also expected to register three-month high of 0.3% against 0.2% previous. Hence, chances of the greenback to recover some of its recent losses are higher; though, prevailing election tensions could continue limiting the USD gains, which in-turn signal EURUSD closing the week around 1.1060, or at 1.1000 if we become more optimistic about US currency, while 1.1130 TL resistance continue providing strong upside barrier to the pair prices.

For GBPUSD, a break of 1.2480 can quickly print 1.2600 on the chart while reversal, which is more likely, can flash 1.2340 support on the chart. Moving forward, AUDUSD is still struggling to break 0.7700 mark and the NZDUSD has 0.7360 resistance with 0.7630 and 0.7270 acting as respective support. Additionally, USDJPY may surpass 103.50 mark and can rise to 104.00 while a dip below 102.60 can drag the pair to 101.80.

To sum up, the NFP will be an eye-catcher of the day, which is expected to help greenback recover some of its losses but broader pessimism surrounding presidential election may limit the USD up-moves. Though, one is certain to happen and that’s volatile US session.

Have a nice trading-day …………

643

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While speculations of Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election helped greenback mark another positive closing on Tuesday, the result announcement-day proved to be a nightmare for Democrats as Republican candidate, Donald Trump, registered a victory with 276 seats compared to 270 needed. The disappointment roiled global markets and rejuvenated memories of Brexit as investors were forced to safe-havens and register highest gains of JPY and Gold prices since UK referendum result. The commodity basket plunged into negative as Trump seen a dire-enemy of Asian countries, majorly China, and might revoke some amendments helping global trading system. The US Dollar portrayed the same disappointment with more than 2.0% decline while Mexican Pesso couldn’t see any stop to halt its drop. Further, equity markets also register noticeable downsides with S&P 500 trimming its 5% trading-curb limit and some of the Asian indices also testing grounds.

Moving forwards, the election results ruled over Chinese inflation readings that printed upbeat figures and kept punishing the commodity currencies, like AUD and NZD while CAD had to bear the burden of Crude price downturn. Moreover, the CHF, as considered to be a safe-haven, managed to mark noticeable strength while EUR and GBP remained a bit strong against Aussie, Loonie, Kiwi and greenback while losing against JPY, CHF.

With what is majorly known as a global shock, marketers might avoid trading more for the rest of the day while keeping their likeliness for JPY and Gold prices. However, that doesn’t mean a reversal in greenback and commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, as an actual victory of Donald Trump might be an obstacle for December Fed Rate-hike and could threaten some of these commodity-centered economies by NAFTA cancellation. Though, it’s just a Popular-Vote results that might be done by day-end, the Electoral Votes are still need to be punched in mid-December while Congress, the final judge of electors, will then announce final results during early January 2017.

On a technical note, EURUSD has already breached 1.1210 and is likely heading to 1.1330 resistance during further acceleration with 1.1130 being an immediate support during a pullback session. Unlike EURUSD, the GBPUSD is yet to clear 1.2560 resistance and might scale its recent rally to 1.2360 downside figure while USDJPY is indicating 100.40 TL support and 103.80 offering adjacent upside rest. Further, AUDUSD bounced-off from 100-day SMA and TL support of 0.7590 signaling 0.7730 resistance but NZDUSD portrays additional declines with 0.7260 downside halt and 0.7415 being resistance to watch.

To sum up, today’s market plunge is less likely to be a correction as Trump victory becomes more serious threat for the Global finances and could hurt the chances of Fed’s rate-hike together with NAFTA breach, which in-turn signals continuation of recent southward trajectory by USD, AUD, NZD and CAD.

Have a nice trading-day …………

644

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While surprise win of Donald Trump and an upbeat market reaction were headlines of most news during last week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) portrayed the same with noticeable gains and pleased Bulls. The EUR remained fragile and the JPY also lost some of its safe-haven shine; though, GBP proved to be an unexpected gainer as Pound traders perceive Trump victory as a good-news for new UK. Further, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, had to bear the burden of Republican praise as Mr. Trump has been tough on global-trade pacts and might hurt China, world’s largest consumer of commodity and a big exporter. Additionally, RBNZ’s rate-cut and plunging Crude prices provided extra-weakness to NZD and CAD respectively while five-month high UoM Consumer Sentiment from US gave another-push to greenback buyers.

On Monday, markets got another-boost in favor of greenback after Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales lagged behind general consensus while Japanese authorities showed their intention to meet to be-US President and discuss free trade deals. From this, we could ascertain that USD has a good-run ahead while JPY and Gold might have reasons to decline further.

Having witnessed huge volatility from US election results, this week’s headline inflation readings from US, UK and Canada, coupled with UK & AU Job figures are likely to grab market-attention. Moreover, understanding what Donald Trump’s policy priorities are could also fuel up-and-down during the week to come.

Among other CPI releases, Tuesday’s UK Inflation report and Friday’s US CPI are likely to bear more importance as the Britain is near to March 2017 Article 50 deadline while higher US inflation can help Federal Reserve announce its much awaited rate-hike in December. Moreover, Thursday’s AU job figures can help the Aussie traders witness mild profit-booking if Employment Change meets forecasts while disappointing readings could have higher repercussions and further downside for AUDUSD.

Also, US Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing and UK Retail Sales are some of the second-tier economics to continue fueling Forex moves with recent optimism at Britain likely to help GBP’s extended up-move on positive data-points. At Canadian front, the headline CPI, up for Friday and the on-going speculations of December 30 OPEC meeting and the fresh news from Iran, Iraq and Saudi-Arabia can continue making Loonie traders on desk.

Hence, top-tier inflation and job figures, coupled with news headlines concerning OPEC and Trump policy outlook can continue making markets alive and might help the US Dollar further towards north. Though, trading moves aren’t likely to shift as fast as last week and negative details might have higher repercussions.

On the technical note, EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to gain much attention after last week’s heavy positives. Given the US CPI and Retail Sales continue pleasing greenback buyers, the EURUSD’s downturn below 1.0700 important TL can’t be denied, which in-turn opens the door for 1.0550-45 mark. Though, disappointing news could trigger profit-booking moves to fuel the pair towards 1.0950 and the 1.1120-30 nearby resistances.

For GBPUSD, the 1.2780 continue being as a strong resistance and positive readings can fuel the pair beyond that, giving rise to expectations of seeing 1.30000 psychological mark. Though, dip below 1.2330, coupled with negative UK data-points, might again threaten Pound traders to witness sub-1.2100 support-area.

Have a nice trading-day …………

646

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be another pleasant-day for the US Dollar traders as speculations that Donald Trump will boost US growth and inflation through increased spending continued fueling the greenback Index (I.USDX) and helped it mark fresh high of the 2016. Asian currencies were badly hit with commodities also bearing the burden of higher USD while a dip in Chinese industrial production provided additional weakness to AUD and NZD. Further, the JPY and Gold prices weakened to five-month lows on declining safe-haven demand but the GBP remained upbeat on the prior optimism from US’s new President-elect.

As we approach the second-day of the week, which has comparatively more economics to track, market started witnessing a bit of pullback ahead of important UK CPI, EU Flash GDP, US Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing. With the German GDP lagging behind forecast & prior, the EUR maintained is downturn ahead of the regional growth figure while AUD seems enjoying an upbeat statement from RBA minutes. Moreover, Crude prices also reversed from three-month lows after the news broke that OPEC members are working to bridge supply-demand gap and might agree to freeze output during present month meeting.

Considering the present pullback session, GBPUSD and EURUSD are likely to be affected the most with chances of weaker UK CPI dragging back Pound to 1.2340 are higher while an upbeat print can further fuel the pair to 1.2600 mark. Additionally, dip in US Retail Sales, coupled with positive EU GDP, can also help the EURUSD to aim for 1.0855-60 region with 1.0690 being immediate support should the US figures keep promising December rate-hike.

Other than both these majors, USDJPY is also likely to trim some of its latest gains towards re-testing 107.60 support with 108.50-60 offering nearby resistance. Moreover, AUDUSD failed to sustain the trend-line break and may again confront 0.7600 upside figure with a dip below 0.7510 opening its south-run to 0.7440 while 0.7020 and 0.7170 can continue limiting NZDUSD moves.

To sum up, traders are waiting for important data releases and adhering to profit-booking during earlier sessions. Given the scheduled data-points disappoint GBP & USD traders, chances of a higher magnitude decline by both these winners can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day …………

647

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – November – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

While upbeat US Retail Sales figures provided an additional strength to the USD buyers and fueled the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to fresh high of 2016, some amongst the analyst fraternity feared that present up-move is “too fast” and curbed extended rally of the currency during later trading hours. The GBP also carried its weakness forward after UK CPI lagged behind consensus and prior while EUR remained a bit strong with ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers surpassing expectations. Further, the Canadian Dollar also strengthened as OPEC members, together with Russia, braced for next-week’s informal talks to manage the month-end production freeze deal but the NZD kept declining on weaker than previous GDT prices Index while AUD closed the day in positive territory on hawkish RBA minutes. Additionally, the JPY still remained sellers’ favorite and the Gold took a break from its south-run.

On Wednesday, traders showed their fear from US Dollar rally and chose to liquidate some of the recent longs during earlier sessions. However, the greenback still remained strong enough against JPY, AUD and NZD as market optimism hasn’t fade yet and expected negatives for China remain present.

Looking forward, UK labor market details, US & New-Zealand PPI and the US Industrial Production, coupled with Canadian Manufacturing Sales are some of the important data-points that could continue making economists busy for the day. Amongst them, the UK job details are likely to provide additional weakness to the GBP while chances of another good US data-set can’t be denied. Further, Canadian Manufacturing Sales may disappoint Loonie’s (CAD’s) recent buyers but New-Zealand stat could help Kiwi (NZD) cut its recent losses. Hence, even if the market moved against during early Wednesday, chances of the greenback strength to restore become more likely.

[B]Technical Speak:[/B]

As mentioned earlier, traders are less likely to carry their present profit-booking forward, except pessimistic US details, recent gains of the EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to be affected the most. Though, UK job figures can trigger more weakness on the part of GBP and hence may make EURGBP again the favorite for buyers.

Have a nice trading-day …………

648

Hello Traders,

Slew of upbeat economic data-points, including four-decade low Jobless Claims and better CPI, received a helping hand from Fed Chair when she, during her Testimony, signaled that the US central bank is “Too Close” to rate-hike. The news/events gifted additional fuel to the greenback’s skyrocketing rally, making it an undoubted winner again on Thursday. The US Dollar managed to post across the board heavy gains while being on the way to reflect its steepest two-week advance in 28 years against Japanese Yen. The EUR remained weaker due to upcoming election fears that may give rise to another Brexit-like situation if populism wins and break the Euro region; however, the GBP didn’t weaken much as UK Retail Sales surpassed consensus & prior. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD couldn’t deviate from their south-run and the Crude prices failed to enjoy hawkish OPEC statements as rising USD curbed commodity demands. Additionally, Gold stretched it drop towards May lows as rising US optimism derailed its safe-haven demand.

On Friday, market players chose to follow previously orchestrated path and favored USD; though, Crude prices are trading in tension during the OPEC and Russia’s informal meeting in Doha, comments from there will roll-out soon. Furthermore, even after witnessing increasing bets favoring USD longs, comparatively thin economic calendar seems restricting traders’ activity while writing the article.

Unlike yesterday, there are fewer economics to track during the day; however, Canadian CPI, comments from Doha meeting and some scheduled speeches of FOMC members could provide liquid session going forward. Should there be an informal outout-freeze accord in Doha, between global oil producers, chances of the Crude price spike and the a CAD short-covering become imminent while upbeat words from FOMC members, which is more likely, can continue paving way for USD Dollar’s north-run.

[B]At the Technical-Desk[/B]

Considering the present market scenario of less economics, except concerning CAD, chances of the USDCAD to trim some of its latest gains are higher which can also be witnessed in GBPCAD downside. Further, NZDUSD did break 200-day SMA, signaling further south-run.

Have a nice trading-day …………