This is a basic question I want clarification on if the US oil stockpiles rise then the oil price will decrease due to the fact that this signifies the US are buying less oil; so the currency pair USD/CAD will most likely be expected to be bullish.
Is this fundamental reason correct?
[I]
I have recently just completed the babypips school[/I]
First part concerning weaker Crude prices are correct while decline in USDCAD is less certain as broader view of Chinese economics and Canadian data-points will also play a crucial role.
Hope its understandable…
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Notwithstanding few better than forecast economics, the US Dollar extended its south-ward trajectory during last week as would be US President, Donald Trump, refrained from discussing fiscal stimulus and rather talked about Mexico wall during his first press conference after being elected. Global market players remained disappointed and kept running towards safe-havens in search of safety while commodity currencies had their own benefits due Chinese figures. Let’s analyze upcoming market-moves and flash light on the past week as well.
[B]Trump Disappointment Ruled Last Week[/B]
Even with shorter economic-line, which eventually gifted positive Jobless and Retail Sales figures, the greenback couldn’t confront Bears released through earlier FOMC minutes as Mr. Trump couldn’t please traders with any fiscal & tax details, which were eagerly awaited, and rather kept focusing on divisive plans. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) declined for third consecutive week while safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, kept being favorite and surged. Further, the EUR and GBP had their own issues with upcoming Brexit negotiations in March which dragged the Pound further towards south while upbeat second-tier releases from EU helped EUR to remain strong. Looking at commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, Chinese inflation figures and weaker USD favored their upside while speculations relating to less impact of global production cut and higher US inventory marked another negative week for Crude.
[B]What’s There In Upcoming Week?[/B]
Alike last week, political issues at EU, UK and US are likely to dominate this week whereas mainstream economics concerning Inflation and Job numbers could also provide active trading-days to prevail.
At the start of the market-trading, GBP witnessed a plunge as Sunday Times reported during weekend that UK PM would prefer more of strong borders and laws after Brexit than to maintain its entry-gate status during her press conference on Tuesday. The same uncertainty provided additional strength to the JPY and Gold while US Holidays on Monday curned greenback moves. Further, the Crude prices witness a bit short-covering on weaker USD which in-turn could be witnessed in AUD, NZD and CAD prices.
Looking forward, Monday’s speech by BoE Governor and Tuesday’s UK PM’s conference will be crucial for GBP traders in addition to Tuesday’s UK CPI, Wednesday’s Job numbers and Friday’s Retail Sales. While economic figures at UK are indicating mixed signals, a dovish stance of BoE Governor and strong comments favoring border laws by UK PM might continue dragging the GBP to down.
The US economic calendar is also active with Tuesday’s Empire State Manufacturing, Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s housing and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Most of the data-points are likely to depict strong US economy but Yellen’s public appearances during Wednesday and Thursday, followed by start of Trump administration on Friday, would provide important clues to determine near-term USD moves.
For EUR traders, Thursday’s ECB meeting will be crucial while Aussie players shouldn’t miss AU employment details, up on the same day. Additionally, BoC meeting, Chinese GDP and Industrial Production and the Canadian CPI & Retail Sales are some other details to observe for traders’ fraternity.
Given the present uncertainty surrounding EU-UK relationship and Trump administration’s impact on US, safe-havens are more likely to maintain their upside while GBP and USD may still have to go through hardships if scheduled data-points also disappoint markets.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
With EURUSD’s sustained break of two-month old descending trend-line, coupled with pessimism at US, chances of the pair’s further upside towards 1.0850 become more likely while 1.0500 keep being strong support to watch. The GBPUSD dropped below 1.2100 and is expected to revisit 1.1800 mark while AUDUSD’s failure to surpass 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence might trigger its pullback if AU job figures remain dismal. Furthermore, USDJPY seems targeting 112.80 & 111.30 strong supports with 115.50 considered as important resistance whereas 0.7150 & 0.7030 continue being important levels for NZDUSD traders.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
When US traders came back from an extended weekend on Tuesday, they didn’t hesitate in liquidating greenback over the weekend news that quoted would-be US President saying “can’t compete with (China) now because our currency is strong and it’s killing us." In addition to this, weaker Empire State Manufacturing Index and comments from some FOMC members favoring more rate-hikes gave more reasons to sellers that drove the USD gauge (I.USDX) to nearly six-week lows.
Another and probably the biggest news was UK PM, Theresa May’s, speech over the outline of Brexit. The British leader successfully fueled the Pound to witness best-day since 1998 even with communicating intention to exit the single market status during March negotiation with EU. Investors welcomed her decision to exit the EU region in total by loosing entry-gate status and discussing individual deals with the bloc. Moreover, she also uttered her readiness to put the final Brexit agreement into parliament for vote, which in-turn induced short-term traders to believe more in the GBP.
With this GBP became the biggest winner of the day while JPY, Crude and Gold also rallied with weaker USD while Chinese Premier’s appearance at World Economic Forum boosted commodity basket and commodities currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD. Additionally, hawkish comments favoring the readiness to abide by oil production-cut agreement by Saudi Arabia helped crude prices.
Moving towards Wednesday, early-day trading was mostly favorable for the US Dollar and was against yesterday’s winners, namely GBP, JPY and Gold as investors eagerly await Fed Chair’s comments during her evening appearance. However, Crude didn’t lose its recent strength and rose further whereas AUD, NZD and CAD witnessed profit-booking.
Ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech, UK Job figures, inflation numbers from EU & US, coupled with monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada, are some important details/events which need proper deliberation. Looking at the forecasts, UK job figures are more likely to help the GBP while US inflation and industrial production also favor sustained up-move by the greenback. Moreover, Bank of Canada might utter some hawkish statement considering recent positive data-points and can help CAD but Crude inventories may keep maintaining its pressure on the Loonie.
[B]At The Technical Desk[/B]
Failure to surpass 1.2430 by the GBPUSD may fetch the pair to 1.2220 if job numbers disappoint while EURUSD couldn’t break 1.0700 and can revisit 1.0600 mark on positive outcomes from US. Further, USDJPY’s bounce form 112.60 signals 113.70 in case of greenback’s strength.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Just two-day before Mr. Trump is schedule to take over US presidency from Barack Obama, Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, pleased US Dollar bulls by saying that the world’s largest economy is moving toward the central bank’s goal and is in position to withstand gradual rate-hikes. Her comments at Commonwealth Club in San Francisco were mostly hawkish and portrayed a rosy picture of US which helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to register strongest gains in nearly a month.
The greenback buying was so strong that it didn’t bend down against any of the majors and triggered noticeable drops in JPY, Gold and Crude prices. The EUR also remained strong, except against USD, as Final CPI confirmed upbeat initial estimations while GBP had to bear the burden and trim most of its previous gains even after witnessing positive jobs report as traders were more interested in locking out their profits from previous-day’s rally. Further, decline in Crude prices and absence of hawkish comments by BoC Governor dragged CAD whereas commodity basket’s weakness harmed AUD and NZD.
Moving ahead, Thursday becomes an important day for EUR traders as monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled for the day while the speech wave from any political/economic leaders are at halt. Additionally, US Housing figures and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, coupled with Canadian Manufacturing Sales, are some other data-points that should be given proper justification while trading.
At the start of the day, US Dollar strength seems fading while EUR remains in power with a rise in JPY, Gold and Crude prices. Today’s US Crude inventories are also likely to please energy traders whereas early-day comments from Chinese Ministry of Commerce signaled readiness to have strong US-China ties by talk. Moreover, Australian Jobs data was mixed as hike in Employment Change was countered by increasing Unemployment but the AUD managed to remain strong.
Looking at the rest of the day, ECB has already surprised markets during its previous meeting by postponing QE taper and has little thing expected to do today. However, a hawkish Draghi may provide additional strength to the regional currency. US Figures are also indicating greenback up-moves while CAD depends upon Crude and its own data-points to justify its recent rally.
[B]Technical Talk[/B]
With the ECB scheduled on card, EURGBP is expected propel its recovery from 100-day SMA support and can flash a 0.8700+ figure on the chart whereas USDCAD confronts 1.3280 resistance and weaker Crude stats can further fuel the pair towards 1.3355-60. Also, GBPJPY’s latest recovery may find it hard to surpass 200-day SMA figure of 141.15 and might revisit sub-140 area.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
During her second public appearance in last two-days, Fed Chair turned from hawkish to cautious and said that the central bank can’t risk running the economy too hot and may enact rate-hikes soon. With her cautious statement, traders trimmed earlier gains from US Dollar and rather waited before Mr. Donald Trump acquires US Presidency today. Further, the ECB President also curtailed an otherwise long press conference with no big signals and dragged the EUR to south while GBP took advantage of weaker EUR & USD prices. Additionally, Crude prices remained soft on higher than expected US stockpile, which in-turn dragged CAD, while AUD and NZD reversed prior losses. Furthermore, JPY couldn’t strengthen against the greenback but the Gold extended its north-run towards posting fourth-weekly up-move.
While early-day release of better than forecast Chinese GDP helped commodity basket and commodity currencies, overall market sentiment remained quiet ahead of the Donald Trump takes the oath as US President and start his promised tasks. On the data-front, Retail Sales figures from UK & Canada, coupled with Canadian CPI, are likely to entertain GBP & CAD traders respectively.
As Mr. Trump promised to take many steps from the first-day of him being US President, investors are eagerly waiting for his speech later today and how he performs during his first-day as President of world’s largest economy. Given the business-tycoon manage to satisfy global expectations, chances of the US Dollar to reverse majority of its early-week losses are higher; though, in case of disappointment, greenback becomes vulnerable to post fourth-weekly loss.
[B]Technical Talk[/B]
Considering its reversal from 1.5735, the GBPCAD becomes capable enough to test 1.6470 before confronting the 1.6650 resistance-confluence if UK details remain strong whereas CADJPY is more likely to extend its recent south-run towards 85.70. Also, NZDUSD again confronts 0.7230-35 resistance-zone, breaking which it can rally to 0.7290 & 0.7315.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Even if US CPI and Industrial Production posted welcome figures, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) registered fourth-weekly drop as the present US President, Donald Trump, again chose to refrain from discussing fiscal and growth policies and focused more on trade protectionism during his inaugural speech. Let’s discuss detailed fundamentals.
[B]Trump’s Protectionism & Weaker Economics Dragged US Dollar Down[/B]
When Mr. Trump failed to discuss his optimistic fiscal and tax details during prior week, traders perceived that he would have hid them as surprise to be announced during inaugural speech, but that didn’t happen, which in-turn forced market players to lock-in their greenback gains. The EUR, on the contrary, benefited from greenback profit-booking whereas upbeat inflation figure provided additional strength to the regional currency. Further, the GBP managed to please traders with strongest gains since December as UK PM provided detailed guidelines on Brexit and smashed uncertainty with upbeat Manufacturing & Construction PMI, coupled good inflation figure, helped the Pound. Additionally, the JPY remained sluggish with fewer economics but the Gold kept rallying on declining Dollar whereas commodity currencies, namely AUD and NZD, enjoyed upbeat commodity prices due to positive Chinese data-points and expectations that Mr. Trump would help boost infrastructure spending. Furthermore, Crude had to take the hit, which was also witnessed in CAD drop, as US inventories and rig counts signaled continued global supply glut.
[B]GDP, PMI & CPI Offers Busy Week Ahead[/B]
While last week’s speeches provided noticeable market moves, the same is likely to prevail this week as headline GDP releases from UK and US, together with EU PMIs, AU, Japanese and New-Zealand Inflation figures are scheduled for release.
While UK GDP is likely to signal a moderate 2016, US GDP number may soften a bit. However, US Durable Goods Orders and actions from Trump administration may curb further downside of the US Dollar and can help the greenback to recover some of its latest losses.
For EU, headline PMIs could keep portraying rosy picture of the regional economy but Tuesday’s EU Membership Court Ruling and expected strength in the USD could drag the GBP and EUR again towards south.
Further, the AU, NZD and Japanese CPI are less likely to offer any strong signals for respective currencies and hence all eyes will be stuck to US details with brighter chances of the greenback’s recovery during the first full week of Trump presidency.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
EURUSD is less likely to break 1.0840-50 region, comprising 100-day SMA, and might revisit 1.0600 area while 1.2540 becomes important resistance for the GBPUSD, breaking which it could aim for 1.2700 with 1.2220 continue being crucial support. USDJPY is again coming towards 112.50 & 111.30 supports which if broken can fetch the quote to 110 whereas a closing above 116.00 is required for it regain Bulls’ confidence. Moving forwards, AUDUSD struggles to clear 0.7585-90 region and the NZDUSD has to clear 0.7230-35 to maintain its upside whereas 0.7500 & 0.7100 offer strong supports to these respective pairs.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
On Monday, U.S. President, Donald Trump, signed a formal withdrawal of the world’s largest economy from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (TPP) and flashed another signal of his focus on protectionism rather than discussing fiscal stimulus which market players eagerly are waiting for. This, together with, Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin’s, comment favoring weaker US Dollar provided another dent to the greenback strength which was reflected in third-consecutive daily drop by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The EUR and GBP managed to extend their recent upsides due to counter-strength ahead of today’s Supreme court ruling relating to Brexit whereas JPY registered heavy gains on global traders’ worry relating to whether US President will be able to maintain economic optimism with his protectionism or not. Further, Australian and New-Zealand Dollars maintained their up-moves with commodity basket strength and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could flash noticeable advances as Crude prices rallied on hawkish comments from Iraq.
During early-day trading sessions on Tuesday, global forex market behaved a bit different from its pre-established pattern and helped the USD while triggering a bit pullback in currencies of Europe and UK. Further, Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI registered fastest expansion in almost three years but failed to propel the JPY whereas AUD, NZD and CAD also faced profit-booking ahead of the day which bears active economic calendar.
While EU & German Flash PMIs, together with US Existing Home Sales and Japanese Trade Balance are some of the economic data-points that can help foresee today’s market moves, EU Court Ruling is more likely to maintain its November order that stated the government needs parliamentary approval to trigger formal Brexit talks.
Forecasts relating to scheduled data-points suggest a bit upside by the EUR and a soft USD while the GBP is less likely to maintain its latest strength as a ruling in favor of parliamentary approval indicates a possible lower hand of the UK PM while negotiating Brexit deals with EU.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
As EU & UK details/events are scheduled to remain in highlight, EURGBP could gain major market attention. The pair recent broke immediate ascending trend-line support but refrain from declining below 0.8600 mark, which together with probable GBP weakness, indicate brighter chances of the pair’s revisit 0.8660. Further, GBPUSD also failed to surpass 1.2550-55 horizontal resistance-line and is signaling 1.2430 re-test whereas failure to surpass medium-term descending trend-channel could trigger NZDUSD’s pullback towards 0.7180.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
During his second full-day of working, US President, Donald Trump, managed to flash some lose signals about much awaited fiscal & tax policies which were welcomed by global equity markets and the US Dollar. Mr. Trump met three largest US automakers and offered them some incentives in return of high production while his administration said to advance construction of the Keystone and Dakota pipelines, which in-turn indicated active efforts to deliver what he promised during campaigns. Further, upbeat Manufacturing PMI figures from EU, Germany & US helped boosting global investor confidence towards energy markets whereas EU Court Ruling, that favored UK government to have parliamentary approval before ticking Article 50 negotiation, dragged the GBP down. Moving on, JPY and Gold witnessed pullback as rising USD cut safe-haven demands whereas AUD and NZD also dipped to south due to the greenback strength.
During early Wednesday, the Crude prices started liquidating some of its latest gains as API inventories remained higher than forecast, indicating another strong figure by official US release, scheduled for later today. Additionally, AUD became the victim of weaker than forecast inflation number and NZD also shed some profits whereas JPY and Gold stretched their previous declines on current strength of the USD.
For the rest of the day, German IFO Business Climate and New-Zealand Inflation, coupled with US inventory are likely to provide intermediate market moves wherein the Crude prices are expected to suffer whereas EUR and NZD might witness some advances. On the other hand, Donald Trump’s further actions to boost US Government spendings and any more signals for Tax structure would keep favoring the US Dollar.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
Considering the USDJPY’s another bounce from 112.50, chances of its uptick towards 114.00 becomes imminent; however, a break of which becomes crucial for buyers to aim for 114.55-60. Further GBPNZD’s inability to surpass 1.7350 may drag it to 1.7180 whereas CADJPY seems loosing its latest strength and might come down to 86.00 & 85.80 levels if doesn’t break 86.80.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Even after witnessing ten-month low New Home Sales figure and higher than forecast US Jobless Claims, the US Dollar managed to close Thursday on a positive-side as upbeat Services PMI & Wholesale Inventories, coupled with Trump administration’s active performance and welcome earning results, assured greenback traders to have happy days ahead. The EUR couldn’t sustain its recent advances whereas GBP became the victim of profit-booking after UK GDP confirmed strong Q4 2016. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD weakened with strong USD hurting commodity basket but heavier declines were seen by JPY & Gold due to latest cut in safe-havens. Additionally, Crude prices surprised energy traders with noticeable gains as recent performances of US Government & global energy producers signal curbing persisting supply-glut.
Moving forward, the early-day release of soft Japanese Inflation figures and BoJ’s push for additional Japanese Government Bond purchases of five- to ten-year maturity dragged JPY further towards south. Additionally, holiday-thin trading due to Lunar New Year at China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, coupled with absence of BIG data-points at rest of the globe, except US, might keep disturbing global market moves.
As Advance release of US Q4 2016 GDP and Durable Goods Orders are scheduled to release for the day, traders are less likely to look at any other dat-points. However, meeting of US President & UK PM would be curicial for GBP & USD as both these leaders are seeking strong ties in future. Moreover, tensions between Mexico & US, relating to border wall, is more likely to hurt Mexican Peso and would be favorable for CAD as Canadian Oil previously had to compete with Mexico’s output. Looking at US details, US GDP might disappoint greenback traders due to recently soft trade figures but the greenback drop could be confined by upbeat Durable Goods Orders.
[B]Technical Details[/B]
EURUSD recently confirmed short-term “Rising-Wedge” and is indicating the pair’s further downside towards 1.0580 but weaker US details may trigger the quote’s reversal towards 1.0710 and then to 1.0770 resistances. Further, the GBPUSD also dropped below immediate ascending trend-line support and is signaling 1.2490 & 1.2430 support with 1.2610 being adjacent resistance whereas USDJPY’s sustained break of 114.40 TL favors its upside to 115.70.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
While economic platter was almost empty till late last-week, US President’s protectionist policy measures continued offering noticeable moves to market players, which mostly were against the US Dollar. During the weekend, the Q4 2016 Advance GDP and Durable Goods Orders provided additional strength to Bears that dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards a fifth-consecutive weekly loss. On the other hand, positive progressions by UK policymakers helped the GBP while rest other currencies maintained their previous moves, except JPY. Let’s quickly analyze the past and forecast upcoming moves for this week.
[B]Trump’s Protectionism And May’s Optimism Ruled Markets[/B]
Mr. Donald Trump progressed further on his path to “America First” policies and issued some orders relating to levying 20% tax on Mexican products, inducing home producers for more output in exchange of tax incentives and introduced immigration curbs. The path, which he perceived to be having a longer-run help for the US economy, immediately received bears’ attention for the USD which then gained further help from weaker GDP and Durable Goods figures. The EUR remained sluggish, even after witnessing upbear PMIs, as the UK seemed to be on upper hand when it would discuss Article 50 during March. Further, UK GDP again pleased GBP traders whereas JPY had to trim some of its latest gains due to BoJ’s action of additional Japanese Government Bond Buying. Additionally, the AUD, NZD and CAD all gained due to weaker USD helping commodity basket while Crude witnessed another not-so-good week due to rising US inventory and Rig counts. Furthermore, Gold prices dropped for the first time in five-weeks as Chinese holidays curbed physical demand of the yellow metal.
[B]An Active Economic To Come[/B]
Moving foreward from last week, the present week, which contains initial days of the February, has many important readings and events that could provide ample trade opportunities to investors. Amongst them, monetary policy meetings by FOMC, BoJ and BOE and labor market prints from US and New-Zealand would take the front-line. Moreover, EU Flash CPI & GDP, Chinese Official & Caixin PMIs, UK’s headline PMIs and US Factory Orders, Housing figures and ISM numbers, are some additional data-points that could keep fueling market moves.
While none of the central banks are expected to alter their monetary policies, traders would be more interested in FOMC statement which might reflect the Trump impact on Fed’s path and the BoE’s quarterly inflation report. Further, US Jobs figures, the first of 2017, would be crucial for greenback traders whereas EU’s flash GDP & CPI would be helpful in forecasting near-term EUR moves.
Forecasts suggest upbeat readings from US helping the US Dollar to recover some of its latest losses and UK numbers to favor GBP’s recent recovery while EU stats are signaling extended strength of the regional currency. Further, figures from New-Zealand and China are indicating a bit mixed picture and might trigger much awaited downside for commodity currencies, namely, AUD, NZD and CAD.
[B]At the Technical Desk[/B]
Considering the active economic calendar, mostly in favor of USD and GBP, the EURUSD is less likely to surpass 100-day SMA and might revisit 1.0580-75 whereas GBPUSD cleared 100-day SMA and a sustained trading beyond that can help the pair to challenge 1.2800. Further, 115.30 becomes important for USDJPY, which is likely to open doors for the quote’s north-run towards 116.50 & 117.00 while AUDUSD and NZDUSD traders should be on the lookout for 0.7500 and 0.7140 to enter fresh short positions.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31 – January – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Monday proved to be another bad-day for USD traders, even after witnessing upbeat readings of Consumer Spending & Pending Home Sales, as Trump’s latest temporary ban, announced during weekend, on the entry of refugees and people from seven Muslim-majority countries became despicable. Traders chose to cash-out from the greenback and rather favor safe-havens in search of risk-safety, which in-turn provided negative daily closing to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The EUR got benefited with German Consumer Price Inflation reaching 3.5 year high and close to ECB’s just under 2.0% target whereas GBP became victim of profit-booking ahead of “Super Thursday”. Further, the JPY and Gold maintained their up-moves with safe-haven support whereas commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, remained benefited due to weaker USD. Additionally, Crude prices also declined as market players reflected to the weekend news of higher US rig counts.
During early Tuesday, the US Dollar continued being as less accepted while JPY maintained its strength even as BoJ refrained from altering its present monetary policy. However, there was mixed reaction to the central bank’s cut in near-term inflation forecast and an increase in GDP estimation. Traders now await BoJ Governor’s speech and EU’s Flash details of CPI & GDP with US Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence Index and New-Zealand labor market figures.
As the economic calendar started being active since early-day, chances are higher that markets would now focus more on data-points than to politics in order to predict near-term moves. Amongst the scheduled details, EUR and JPY are likely to remain favorites of traders while NZD may regain its strength after employment details. Also, USD is less likely to continue loosing across the board and might trigger pullbacks in case if scheduled data-points please greenback Bulls. Hence, volatility will keep offering busy trading sessions and traders should be cautious enough to gain.
[B]Technical Talk[/B]
Considering EURGBP’s latest bounce from 0.8545, coupled with expected upbeat EU details, chances of the pair’s ability to break 0.8580 become high whereas EURUSD’s break of 1.0725 can open the door for its rally towards 1.0780 and the 1.0810. Further, GBPNZD signals additional weakness towards 1.7045 with 1.7090 being immediate halt.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
On Tuesday, Trump administration again triggered fresh round of pessimism and dragged the US Dollar down which was already struggling to confront much criticized immigration policy. The administration stirred new threat for greenback traders when a top policymaker, together with Mr. President, termed China, Germany and Japan as playing with their money markets and US Dollar is overvalued. With that, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) completed January as the weakest month since March 2016 and helped safe-havens, like JPY & Gold, to extend their pre-established north-run. The EUR rallied considerably on upbeat CPI & GDP figures while GBP also bounced-off with greenback’s weakness whereas AUD, NZD and CAD benefited from rising commodity basket due to declining US Dollar. Further, the CAD got additional support from improving GDP figures and avoided soft Crude prices.
At the start of February, New-Zealand Unemployment-rate unexpectedly rallied to the highest since Q1 2016 and dragged NZD a bit to south where as US Dollar recovered on profit-booking ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Moving on, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI also remained better and helped assuring commodities’ player a better time ahead but a dip in Japanese Manufacturing PMI helped USDJPY to recover from its latest dips.
Following early-day Manufacturing PMI releases from China and Japan, US & UK are also standing in a queue to publish the same figures for their own self. Moreover, monetary policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve, which doesn’t carry Fed Chair’s press conference and economic forecast, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Crude Oil Inventories are some other details/events that could keep fueling market moves.
While Federal Reserve is widely expected to not alter its present interest-rate, FOMC statement will be closely observed in search of any hints relating to Trump’s effect on central-bank’s rate-hike view. Given the central bank manage to provide hawkish comments, chances of the greenback to recover some of its latest losses can’t be denied. Further, UK PMI is less likely to help GBP extend its latest upswing whereas Crude inventory might again provide a drag to the Crude prices after its API counterpart conveyed the same.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
With USDCAD’s recent break of 200-day SMA, it continued to be vulnerable to visit 1.2930 with 1.3120-25, comprising mentioned longer-term SMA, being immediate important resistance whereas GBPAUD’s recent pullback might not surpass 100-day SMA figure of 1.6650 and can re-test sub-1.6500 area. Additionally, NZDUSD’s failure to break 0.7320 can again fetch it back to 0.7230-20 support-zone.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Even with two-year high ISM Manufacturing PMI & Upbeat ADP Employment figure, the US Dollar couldn’t register noticeable up-moves as FOMC failed to provide hawkish statement for economic outlook and refrained from giving strong clues about up-coming interest rate-hike. However, the greenback gauge (I.USDX) adhered to positive daily closing for the first time during the week. The EUR managed to hold its strength with upbeat final PMIs whereas GBP rallied due to not so weaker Manufacturing PMI and upbeat sentiment concerning Article 50 talks to be help in March. Further, the AUD managed to reverse its early-day loss whereas closed in a negative territory as New-Zealand Unemployment rate soared. Additionally, CAD couldn’t enjoy rising commodity prices as crude prices plunged after sharp rise in US stockpile release but the JPY and the Gold continued on their north-run with safe-haven support.
Moving forward, the US Dollar again adhered to downside during the start of Thursday whereas GBP maintained its up-move ahead of the crucial BoE meeting and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). The Australian Dollar rallied considerably after the nation registered record trade surplus whereas CAD and NZD also followed the rising suit by gaining back-up from commodity basket.
For the rest of the day, UK Construction PMI, BoE details and US Jobless Claims are likely to provide busy trading sessions to market players. However, news from UK and US policymakers would continue to be additional burden for traders to observe.
The Bank of England (BoE) is likely to please GBP traders after recent UK detailas have been upbeat. The central bank is expected to raise growth and inflation forecasts from its November predictions and Mr. Governor might also speak some hawkish lines to sound optimistic about the British economy. However, Article 50 discussions might cause a threat and can confine Mark Carney’s ability to sound hawkish. On the other hand, US Jobless Claims could again flash a pleasant number but may not be able to confront present pessimism due to Trump’s protectionist policies.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
GBPUSD successfully cleared 1.2660 and is now heading towards 1.2780 whereas EURGBP traders should be on the lookout for 0.8460 support. Further, USDJPY is trading at 112.50-45 support-zone, break of which can open the door for its south-run towards 111.30 and 110.80 support levels.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Thursday proved to be another good-day for USD traders as US Jobless Claims flashed one more dip and Mr. President appointed US ambassador to China with a view to achieve a “win-win” trade relations. The EUR remained sluggish with no major data-points where as the GBP registered negative daily closing after the BoE failed to please Pound traders by raising Inflation and growth forecasts as they were looking for a strong clue relating to rate-hike which was absent. Further, the AUD maintained its gains earned through trade surplus while NZD and CAD enjoyed rising commodity prices. Additionally, JPY and Gold also strengthened due to BoE’s disappointment but the Crude gained heavily on hawkish comments from Russia and speculations that US might levy few fresh sanctions on Iran due its latest missile test.
During Friday, Chinese and Japanese actions fueled global markets during early trading sessions. The Bank of Japan took a surprise action of buying additional Japanese government bonds and dragged JPY to south while Chinese central bank, after coming back from a week-long holiday, raised short-term rates used during open-market operations. With this, the US Dollar maintained its up-move ahead of monthly jobs report and the Gold prices also advanced whereas commodity currencies trimmed some of their latest gains.
If it was not enough to witness noticeable moves during early-day, US employment details, scheduled for release at a later part, would provide another push to global financial market volatility and hence should be observed closely. As the NFP is likely flashing an advance to 175K from 156K prior and the Unemployment isn’t expected to change from 4.7% traders would observe any change in Wage details, which if post good figure the USD might trim some part of its weekly losses. However, a disappointment through NFP & Earning details would receive larger than necessary selling pressure. Hence, it would be in the best interest of traders to stay on the sidelines ahead of such critical release.
[B]Technical Talk[/B]
Considering the AUDUSD’s failure to surpass 0.7700 round figure, coupled with recent strength of the USD, chances to witness Aussie’s pullback towards 0.7605 – 0.7600 become higher. Further, GBPJPY’s bounce from 140.70 horizontal-support might help the pair to revisit 142.00 while AUDCAD’s further advances can only be expected in case the quote manage to surpass 1.0000 psychological magnet, else it becomes wise to favor 0.9930 and 0.9880 supports.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
A long week with many economic events/details propelled heavy liquidity into the Forex market during past 5 working-days. However, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) kept being Bears’ favorite for sixth consecutive week as protectionist policies of Trump administration and weaker Wage growth dragged the greenback to south. Let’s discuss details of the past and present week.
[B]USD Couldn’t Benefit From NFP & Spendings[/B]
Even after registering handsome rise in Spendings and NFP, the US Dollar failed to register a positive weekly closing as a drag in Earnings and a higher unemployment rate than forecast, coupled with Trump’s protectionism, kept signaling weaker days for US. The EUR remained benefited from Inflation & GDP figures while AUD and NZD maintained their upstream on rising commodity prices and better data-points. Further, JPY again witnessed surprise increase in bond buying from BoJ and declined whereas GBP had to bear the burden of weaker PMIs and failure of BoE Governor to convey any strong economic message. Additionally, Gold extended its north-run on strong safe-haven demand and the Crude prices also gained as US levied fresh sanctions on Iran.
[B]ECB, RBA & RBNZ To Gain Focus This Week[/B]
While BoJ, Federal Reserve and BoE disappointed global traders during last week, by not providing any strong clues for their future actions, ECB President’s testimony and monetary policy meetings at Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) & Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would gain attention this week. Additionally, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Trade Balance figures from US, UK and China are some data-points that can entertain traders.
On Monday, ECB President’s testimony is likely to reflect how strong Mr. Mario Draghi feels after recent advances in EU inflation and can help EUR while Tuesday’s RBA meeting isn’t likely to act upon anything but strong statement can further stretch AUD’s advances. Moving on, RBNZ, on Wednesday, is not also likely to alter its present monetary policy and can only please NZD traders with few hawkish statements whereas Trade Balance figures are overall strong for UK & US. Also, the Chinese Trade Balance, on Friday, may trigger a bit of profit-booking in commodity currencies in case the figures show higher deficit. In addition to what discussed above, Canadian Job figures, Ivey PMI figures and Crude inventories are extra figures to observe, which in-turn indicate more strength by the CAD.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
Looking at the technical side, EURUSD continue failing to break 100-day SMA and is likely to witness pullback towards 1.0650 with a clearance of 1.0800 being a trigger for the pair to aim for 1.0850 & 1.0960. The GBPUSD might witness extended drag towards 1.2220 with 1.2700 acting as strong upside resistance whereas USDJPY might challenge 111.30 strong support, breaking which it can plunge to 109.30 with 113.70 being near-term strong resistance. Further, 0.7730 and 0.7360 are likely landmarks for AUDUSD & NZDUSD to look whereas 0.7630 & 0.7250 being supports to watch.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
During the first full-day of the week, political uncertainty at EU, UK and US propelled market moves and pushed traders towards safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold. However, this time the fear is more at EU as France’s far-right National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, vowed on Monday to take the nation out of the EU if she gets elected in upcoming general election. Together with this, the ECB President, in his testimony, signaled benign inflation outlook and requirement of continued policy accommodation, which in-turn provided noticeable downtick to the EUR. Further, the GBP also got a hit when present PM, Theresa May, faced another legislative hurdle in her path to take Britain out of EU. On the other hand, US Dollar managed to post a daily positive closing even with its present uncertainty over latest “travel ban” as counter strength from GBP & EUR helped greenback. Additionally, upbeat sentiment at commodity front helped AUD and NZD but Crude and CAD dipped on the view that global oil supply-glut will take some time to fade.
During the early hours of Tuesday, New-Zealand Inflation expectations and RBA meeting provided additional strength to the NZD and AUD. The quarterly Inflation Expectations from Reserve Bank of New Zealand reached five quarter high and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its monetary policy intact by signaling robust strength of commodity basket and improving economics. Moving on, German Industrial Production shrank the most since October 2014 while Swiss Consumer Climate tested the August 2014 high.
In addition to the present political upheaval, Trade Balance figures from US & Canada, coupled with Canadian Ivey PMI &
US JOLTS Job Openings, are some of the data-points that can make a day busier. Looking at the forecasts, US Dollar is likely to witness upswing while Canadian Dollar may continue witnessing Bear power. Though, buying in the JPY & Gold might remain continue, barring some profit-booking if USD put on heavy weight.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
With the present political uncertainty at EU, coupled with EURUSD’s inability to surpass 100-day SMA, the pair more likely to witness further pullback towards 1.0660-55 support-zone with 1.0790 SMA mark being a strong near-term resistance to watch. Further, 1.2410 becomes crucial for GBPUSD traders with more downside expected while USDCAD might rally to 1.3210 if it successfully breaks 200-day SMA figure of 1.3130.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
While the second drop in UK Halifax PMI after Brexit and upbeat US Trade Balance figures pleased market players during yesterday’s early-day trading, concerns over French election and comments from junior Brexit minister roiled sentiment on late-Tuesday. Additionally, lack of Trump actions on promised policy change also gained importance but failed to drag the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down which registered second consecutive daily gain. The EUR declined after chances of the victory by front-running French election candidate were grabbed by a financial scandal which in-turn gave rise to popularity of anti-Euro candidates whereas GBP rallied noticeably after Junior Brexit minister said Parliament will have important say in Brexit discussion and the Bank of England policymaker indicated rate-hikes. Further, the JPY dropped against the USD, but gained across the board on macro uncertainty, whereas Gold maintained its advances. Moving on, the AUD, NZD and CAD declined for the first time in a week as commodities had to bear the burden of strong USD and industry reports might show higher US Crude stockpile.
Having witnessed noticeable moves during previous-day, traders chose to curtail earlier bullish bets on Wednesday and the third in nearly 2 week action of increased Bond Buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) boosted investor confidence in Japanese Currency (JPY). The NZD recovered some its recent losses ahead of the RBNZ meeting whereas Crude also witnessed pullback. Further, the GBP kept tracking on upside but the EUR couldn’t regain its strength.
For the rest of the day, monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand and US Crude Oil inventory outcome will become important to watch together with observing political upheaval at EU & UK. Considering the recent upbeat stats from New-Zealand, chances of the RBNZ Governor to remain hawkish are high; however, he might not chose to signal any rate-change until 2017-end as labor market is still in its nascent stage of recovery. Hence, NZD might witness volatile moves but the overall direction of the Kiwi could be north-side except any surprise negatives. Furthermore, the US Dollar is likely to gain due to weakness at EU and the CAD might witness further declines if stockpile figures keep portraying global supply-glut.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
GBPCAD’s failure to surpass short-term descending trend-line can fetch the quote towards 1.6360 re-test but disappointment from crude inventory-data might propel the pair to break 1.6510 TL and aim for 1.6560. Further, GBPNZD is also expected to witness sustained downside towards 1.7000 psychological magnet on RBNZ whereas break of 0.7600 support can trigger AUDUSD’s fresh pullback in direction of 0.7520.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Having witnessed upbeat sentiments during first two-days of the week, USD traders again faced headwinds and a negative greenback closing on Wednesday as investors locked prior gains. The EUR remained sluggish with looming political uncertainty while GBP strengthened for the second straight-day after one BoE policymaker indicated the need to reverse August month rate-cut as economy is well in-direction to growth. Further, the JPY and Gold managed to stretch their safe-haven backed up-moves whereas AUD and CAD strengthened after commodity basket enjoyed weaker US Dollar. Additionally, NZD plunged across the board as RBNZ surprised global markets with a dovish forecast of record low interest-rate for prolonged period of time and the Governor also expressed worry due to higher NZD prices. Moving on, Crude prices avoided higher than expected oil inventory figures as gasoline stockpile shrank and some of the OPEC members signaled previously agreed production-cuts could be extended to second-half of 2017 against the planned reduction through H1 only.
As we come to Thursday, the early-day moves were governed by NZD’s continuous plunge after RBNZ Governor kept repeating his likeliness for weaker NZD while JPY witnessed profit-booking on BoJ Deputy Governor’s comments favoring the need for massive monetary support. Furthermore, the US Dollar also gained with speculations that US Aviation officials might deliver a hawkish plan for spending during the day and the U.S. court of appeals remain well in favor of President Trump.
Other than the political plays at EU, US and UK, weekly Jobless Claims from US becomes the only economics to observe during the day. Given the US officials manage to please investors with higher spending plan, chances of the US Dollar to recover its recent losses and portray a rally are high. On the contrary, EUR might not have any reasons to witness buying and can continue on its south-run while GBP should extend latest advances on concerns that Theresa May has a upper-hand during March’s Article 50 negotiation.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
Although yesterday’s RBNZ provided noticeable down-tick to the NZD pairs, the NZDJPY is still trading around strong support of 80.55-65 and a following bounce might flash 81.30 on the chart. Further, the GBPAUD tests 1.6420-25 horizontal-resistance and can witness pullback to 1.6375 & 1.6330 whereas 200-day SMA, at 1.3135, can keep inflating USDCAD towards 1.3210.
Have a nice trading-day …………
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – February – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
Thursday proved to be a good-day for all those reflation expecting traders who faced tough time during January and early-February when US President, Donald Trump, failed to provide any strong signals on his promised tax cuts and spending details. Mr. Trump, during a White House meeting with airline executives, promised to provide a “phenomenal” tax plan to lower burden on businesses during next 2-3 weeks. Markets grabbed this opportunity and propelled US Dollar strength as the President repeated such optimistic promise for the first time since taking the office. The EUR and GBP couldn’t confront the greenback’s strength and declined while CAD registered smallest losses amongst commodity currencies as Crude prices advanced on upbeat sentiment. Further, the JPY and Gold became the victim of strong USD cutting safe-haven demands.
Coming to the Friday, early-day releases of Chinese Trade Balance and RBA’s quarterly update of forecasts provided noticeable moves into the commodity basket. China registered another strong economic figure and became capable to gain praises whereas RBA remained a bit neutral and said near-term growth might be affected with lesser chances to see any further improvement in jobs report. With this, AUD, NZD and CAD recovered some of their previous losses whereas JPY and Gold kept being on the downside ahead of the Japanese PM’s visit to his US counterpart.
During the rest of the day, details of discussion between US & Japanese leader would gain higher attention on political front while monthly reports by The International Energy Agency and OPEC, during later Friday and early Monday, might entertain energy traders. On the economic front, UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production, Canadian Jobs report and US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment as some of the data-points to observe.
Considering the latest positive environment triggered by Trump, the US Dollar is likely to complete its first week of gains since December and the Canadian Dollar can also witness upside. However, JPY might decline if US fail to respect Japanese ambition and the GBP is less expected to carry on its latest upside.
[B]Technical Desk[/B]
USDJPY is struggling to break 113.65 TL, which in-turn could open doors for its rally towards 114.40 & 115.10 whereas pullbacks can have 113.30. Moreover, 87.00 resistance-mark gains importance for CADJPY & AUDJPY traders, which if broken can flash 87.40 & 87.55 respective upside figures.
Have a nice trading-day …………