[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – March – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
As expected, the ECB President Mario Draghi used latest upbeat EU details to communicate his optimism for European economy by signaling no need to add further stimulus at this point as economy grows. With this the EUR managed to recover a bit from its recent lows while GBP remained sluggish across the board. On the US side, the Jobless rebounded from 1973 lows and curbed extensive greenback gains but JPY and Gold couldn’t strengthen as overall market optimism still supports a fed rate-hike in next week. Further, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, maintained their likeliness towards south and the Crude extended its plunge as higher US stockpile & shale output now puts heavy doubts on production-cut deal to curb global supply-glut.
As we enter into the most crucial day of the week, comprising NFP, traders are being a bit cautious and refrained from adding more USD longs, resulting into weaker start of the day by the greenback while political tension at South Korea helped JPY & Gold as the South Korean President was removed from office on charges of graft scandal involving big business. Moving on, Crude prices kept running down and also dragged the CAD whereas EUR, AUD and NZD witnessed some profit-booking but GBP failed to stop its downside.
Looking at consensus relating to the US Jobs report, Unemployment rate is likely to decline a bit from 4.8% to 4.7% and the Average Hourly Earnings may please US Dollar Bulls with 0.3% growth versus 0.1% prior. However, the headline Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to soften a bit to 200K compared to 227K previous. Hence, the employment status in US is indicating good strength and actual release may confirm a rate-hike in next week’s FOMC, which in-turn could further accelerate the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) north-run. However, a surprise disappointment from NFP, in case if the figures drops below 200K, and/or higher Unemployment rate, might as well ruin the USD strength and raise doubts on next week’s Fed decision.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
EURUSD struggles around short-term descending trend-line resistance of 1.0600 and is more likely to revisit 1.0520 & 1.0490 supports but a successful break above 1.0600, together with weaker job figures, can propel the quote towards 1.0640 & 1.0680 resistances. On the other hand, the USDJPY has already cleared 114.40 TL and is aiming 115.60 mark, clering which 116.20 and 116.50 figures can comeback on the chart while EURNZD is less likely to witness further upside as 1.5335 medium-term TL mark can trigger its pullback moves to 200-day SMA level of 1.5250.
Have a nice trading-day ……