[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – March – 2017[/B]
Hello Traders,
“Expecting too much from a central bank always prove to be harmful!” The same seemed right yesterday when USD dropped even after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate-hike and maintained its forecast for additional two such lifts to be seen during the year. Traders were looking for a hawkish statement, shooting economic forecast and more rate increase signals than previously pointed two but nothing happened and the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to bear the burden of this disappointment. In addition to that, 2018 budget proposal by US President also hurt the greenback as Mr.Trump revealed his favour for huge increase in defence spending at the cost of many previous federal programs. On the other hand, EUR gained on Netherland election results as exit polls showed ruling party to again come in power and fade anti-EUR sentiments whereas GBP recovered with positive jobs report. Further, commodity currencies also celebrated the USD’s decline while Crude had additional support from first US stockpile depletion after nine straight increases. Moreover, JPY and Gold rallied after disappointed traders again bought safe-havens in search of risk-safety.
On Thursday, market maintained its anti-USD moves during early trading-hours but AUD and NZD couldn’t benefit as a surprise hike in Australian Unemployment rate to January 2016 high and depleting Employment Change, coupled with lowest New-Zealand GDP print since September 2015, dragged Aussie and Kiwi respectively. Moving forward, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood pat with its present monetary policy whereas Crude ignored the EIA’s monthly report which stated that global oil inventories rose for the first time in six months in January.
For the rest of the day, monetary policy meetings by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BoE), followed by US Housing and Philly Fed Manufacturing data, could keep entertaining short-term traders. Among them, SNB and BoE are both less likely to alter their present monetary policies but expected hawkish statement from SNB can help CHF while US figures may keep extending latest pullback of the greenback if matching weaker consensus.
[B]Technical Talks[/B]
On the technical side, USDJPY is again signalling 100-day SMA re-test, at 113.00 now, but a breakdown is less likely and the pair may keep targeting 114.40 and 115.10 during U-turn. The AUDJPY also reversed from its 87.50 range-resistance and can revisit 86.70 support while EURJPY seems failing to sustain its bounce from 50-day SMA, which in-turn points to 121.10 comeback on the chart with 122.20 being nearby resistance to watch.
Have a nice trading-day ……