COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 51
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  1. #501
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    Indonesia
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    Hi FE,

    Ah, lol ok. It's called Currency Slope Strength. I found it in stevehopwoodforex.com.

  2. #502
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    948
    Hey flow...FE...

    All that I do is original. Just every day I have stats on the currencies, mainly who's up and down against who. That will be the top 8 economies. Total of 56 pairs. 28 separate ones. Also I keep track of each pair about trending. Either it will be trending high, low, or ranging.
    So, it's all just my thing. I'm sure there are those out there who have figured out an easier method, and the likes of what you have there.
    FE...your funny! "destroy me"

    Stick around flows, you can definitely learn something in here. We all seem to have our heads on right. And I feel real good about my comrades. Lots of smarts...determination...fortitude.

    We're serious.

    We WILL get there.

    Mike

  3. #503
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    Jul 2014
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    Indonesia
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    108
    Hi Mike,

    I see. Yep, I'll definitely stick around. I've learned how useful COT analysis can be during my relatively short stay here. It helps me to see the sentiment change in cable and trade accordingly. Best of luck to all you guys.

    Cheers,

  4. #504
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    971
    Well, I took myself out of the three trades I took after Fed minutes for a loss of 200 pips. A for effort though lol.
    Why is AUD so strong? even USD can't really take it down.

  5. #505
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    971
    Quote Originally Posted by ForExchange View Post
    Hi flows,

    it's already interesting that you could attach something as I thought you need 20 post for that. Well, the indicator is interesting. What is the name of it? I cannot read it on the picture. But hopefully it is not the same as Mikes. Don't destroy him. Once he will sell it for $$$$!

    Well if you look for sentiment and correlations then you pretty much landed on the right spot... But you have already posted here on 04.08.2014 so I guess you know what it is about.

    Good learning
    you need 20 posts to send private e-mails, which is what I was trying to send Rookie. I'm don't know how you post photos actually

  6. #506
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
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    1,392

    Default Gbp

    Here is a good article about GBP from Cyclopip:

    Going Long GBP/CHF for Long-Term | Forex Blog: Currency Cross-Eyed

    I do suggest it to read for some reason (it is not the trade setup why I like it):

    - he does mention that GBP is losing ground now, but it is still one of the best performing economies so when the rate hike disappointment is over then GBP can gain against some of the currencies again. I am not saying to go long with GBP/USD but we can maybe find some currencies (for example NZD) where there might be waiting some good setups for us!

    - the article shows again that we have to think on the currencies itself and find the right counterparts. GBP is not that easy to find countercurrencies as it is not the weakest but not the strongest so we really have to find the right currency to match it with (with USD no one could have made a mistake in the last days)

    So, good reading and be flexible forex traders. Think about the possibilities that GBP might give to us after such a pullback!

    PS: Philip, sorry for the losses. If it helps a bit, you deserve the question of the award with asking why AUD is strong. Actually Comms are running not so good and in the RBA it was mentioned that AUD too strong is and they tried to jawbone it down. Hmmm... that is the only USD pair that I could not close with a nice profit until this time.

  7. #507
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    Hi guys!

    Here we go. Interesting!

    USD: +6 -0 1
    AUD: +5 -0 2
    GBP: +5 -1 1
    CAD: +3 -4 0
    CHF: +2 -3 2
    EUR: +2 -4 1
    NZD: +1 -5 1
    JPY: 0 -7 0

    Well guys...look at that up there. We have an even score. 0. Majors = +15 and -15. Comms = +9 and -9.

    Here is the new method. I need to call it something. FE...come up with something.

    USD: +2 -0 1
    AUD: +3 -0 2
    GBP: +2 -0 1
    CAD: +2 -3 0
    CHF: +1 -1 0
    EUR: +1 -2 0
    NZD: +1 -3 1
    JPY: +0 -3 0

    So, if we add these up we have: Majors = +6 and -6 equals 0. Comms = +6 and -6 equals 0.
    It is a wash.

    As it looks, USD is dominating the Majors. AUD is dominating the Comms. JPY was taken advantage by everyone today. NZD was same thing, but up against JPY and even against CHF. So, I guess all we need to do is look at the pair AUD/USD. That should tell the tale. Actually the USD was higher only by 9 pips, open to close at 00GMT candles. Ok, the edge goes to Majors technically.

    Well, guys, I'm having quite a week. I have 6 pairs open for USD. Only one I don't have open is against GBP. I'm scared of that one. And the only other pair in the portfolio I do have going is the GBP/CAD. Loosing some, yes, but, that's for the long haul. (till it gets up to the top).
    I hate to say it but I'm at +250 pips now. BUT...only small position sizes on them. All of them is 1k lots, except with NZD, I added yesterday and have 4k on them. I'll start putting up some stop losses in place, take profits it should be. (FE...believe me I realize what no stop losses means...protecting the account, the most important rule)

    Ok guys, we'll talk in the a.m. Except for Rookie. I'll talk to him in the evening time.


    Mike

  8. #508
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
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    Morning guys!

    FE... I actually came across the article on Russia/Ukraine yesterday but couldn't really read it through as it was pretty long. But I will later today.

    I know exactly what you mean by that now that you only pull the trigger if the fundamental aligns with sentiment or else you would much prefer to sit aside.

    I think I'm finally reaching a point where I'm able to see the bigger picture by combining it all together fundamentals and market sentiment along with Mike's stats. I'm sure you already are there. But I was late to this trading with market sentiment. So you'll see me posting more on fundamentals from now on as I realize the importance of this. It was tough for me to get a hang on this but I am getting there slowly. Thats partly your contribution FE thanks! Learning much lately.

    I'm planning on writing up a report on majors and commdolls , looking at their invidual economies rather than focusing on a pair. That was a great point FE! We've had much this week RBA , FOMC minutes , Jackson hole from this thursday through Saturday, BOE minutes and so on. One thing that I've realized at this point is that at the end it's all about interest rate to simplify. Thats what specs are after. Bottom line. The economic indicators that create volatility are part of the measures if Central banks of each of theirs decide if they should raise cut or keep the interest rate unchanged. Now I realize we can get a clue from key indicators how each currency's doing and thus will hint if there's going to be a rate or cut in the future. While interest rate cut translates to economy slowing down interest rate increase signals the opposite. Plus investors shift their assets where there's a high yield - a currency that offers a higher interest rate.

    On top of that we've got correlation going on. CRB and Dollar Index Peterma posted a great post earlier. How they are inversely correlated. Risk aversion. By knowing all this. Having the bigger picture and using COT specs data as a guide if everything aligns together thats an edge , an unbeatable edge I think.

    I'm learning to see the bigger picture. Now I realize why most of the biggest names in this industry focus on fundamental rather than technical aspects.

    It's good to sit aside , observe and think it through when things seems uncertain FE especially if your fundamental and sentiment don't align. Learning not to trade is harder than placing many trades actually. Like I said I would much rather sit aside this week as there will be jackson hole until through Saturday - I read its held once a year so whatever that they may discuss at jackson hole must be taken seriously. Thus I'm cautious to make any moves this week anymore.

    By applying all this as time goes on as I get better at this, I should be able to hold trades longer. Feel at ease. Obviously I need to constanly monitor my trades. As we're putting all this work into this I wanted to aim higher FE.... you see there's bunch out here on these forums looking for systems that will produce 2o pips a day or 100 pips a week. And I think these systems exist. These guys arent doing much but still able to profit about the same or much more pips than I do. That was my point. Then whats the use for doing all this , i should aim higher - hold trades longer.

    Mike... I applaud your confidence. I wouldn't have been able to hold my trades through FOMC minutes and jacksons hole summit and BOE, RBA minutes. So much to pick up from you guys. I'm thinking of going long term lately. And if you read what I wrote above a response to FE I think this should give us an edge to hold trades in a longer term. Combining it all together and monitoring any changes on a weekly to daily basis with stop losses in place obviously. You just never know. But as I am slowing realizing the importance of fundamental and sentiment we might just be able to predict further ahead. We can play an analyst/economist of our own. We keep doing what we're doing now and I think we will get there.

    Look out for AUD and JPY Mike. Both had just published positive data. I will go in that later during the weekend on my report.

    See you guys around !
    Last edited by rookie39; 08-20-2014 at 10:48 PM.

  9. #509
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    971
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Wolski View Post
    Hi guys!

    Here we go. Interesting!

    USD: +6 -0 1
    AUD: +5 -0 2
    GBP: +5 -1 1
    CAD: +3 -4 0
    CHF: +2 -3 2
    EUR: +2 -4 1
    NZD: +1 -5 1
    JPY: 0 -7 0

    Well guys...look at that up there. We have an even score. 0. Majors = +15 and -15. Comms = +9 and -9.

    Here is the new method. I need to call it something. FE...come up with something.

    USD: +2 -0 1
    AUD: +3 -0 2
    GBP: +2 -0 1
    CAD: +2 -3 0
    CHF: +1 -1 0
    EUR: +1 -2 0
    NZD: +1 -3 1
    JPY: +0 -3 0

    So, if we add these up we have: Majors = +6 and -6 equals 0. Comms = +6 and -6 equals 0.
    It is a wash.

    As it looks, USD is dominating the Majors. AUD is dominating the Comms. JPY was taken advantage by everyone today. NZD was same thing, but up against JPY and even against CHF. So, I guess all we need to do is look at the pair AUD/USD. That should tell the tale. Actually the USD was higher only by 9 pips, open to close at 00GMT candles. Ok, the edge goes to Majors technically.

    Well, guys, I'm having quite a week. I have 6 pairs open for USD. Only one I don't have open is against GBP. I'm scared of that one. And the only other pair in the portfolio I do have going is the GBP/CAD. Loosing some, yes, but, that's for the long haul. (till it gets up to the top).
    I hate to say it but I'm at +250 pips now. BUT...only small position sizes on them. All of them is 1k lots, except with NZD, I added yesterday and have 4k on them. I'll start putting up some stop losses in place, take profits it should be. (FE...believe me I realize what no stop losses means...protecting the account, the most important rule)

    Ok guys, we'll talk in the a.m. Except for Rookie. I'll talk to him in the evening time.


    Mike
    I do think you should put some stop losses (or just cover your position and keep them running). 250 pips is a good return, well done.
    On your Comms vs Majors meter I was wondering if you could also start compiling the data for the longer run (I'm willing to help if its too much work). You already do the sentiment for the day and the week. But how about compiling the weekly ones you do and make a monthly sentiment and then a quarterly sentiment.

    My thinking behind this is that your sentiment should, at some point, be very similar to the strength of the currencies in the COT report. If that is the case then we can use it for confirmation of our set-ups, finding longer-term opportunities, and trying to confirm potential reversals if we find divergences in your report and the CFTC. Am I making any sense?

  10. #510
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    Hey guys again.....

    Yellen To Focus On Labor Market At Jackson Hole; Dovish Talk May Lift Gold - Forbes

    I did some reading on FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole symposium this morning. And here's what I found.
    In summary at FOMC meeting majority of the members were inclined to increase the interest rate. At Jackson hole symposium Yellen focuses on labor market.

    "Many economists said they don’t expect much deviation from her past comments about her concern regarding employment conditions in the U.S., including underemployment and sluggish wage growth."

    "She still views that there might be labor market slack and (is) looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. We expect her to be consistent with that,” said Michael Wallace, global market strategist, Action Economics."

    Let's look back at few indicators that we've had this week I'll try to work on more on my report that I will start from this week and onwards.

    Better: NAHB Housing market index --- 55/actual/ 53/consensus/ 53/previous/
    Building permit MoM --- 1.5M/actual/ 1M/consensus/ 0.96M/previous/
    Housing starts MoM --- 1.09M/actual/ 0.97M/consensus/ 0.94M/previous/

    Worse: CPI ex food & energy MoM --- 0.1%/actual/ 0.2%/consensus/ 0.1%/previous/

    Same: CPI YoY --- 2%/actual/ 2%/consensus/ 2.1%/previous/
    CPI ex food & energy YoY --- 1.9%/actual/ 1.9%/consensus/ 1.9%/previous/

    If we look at both CPI YoY so far its coming out just as forecast we don't see any sign of inflation. Quote Michael Wallace Yellen is looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. While majority of the FOMC members were in for an earlier rate hike, if you read the whole article it says not every FOMC member attends Jackson hole symposium but only a select few goes there - the most influential attends this event.

    What they're most concerned at this point is sluggish wage growth low personal consumption. Until this measures pick up much like what BOE minutes had experts believe the rate hike will be later than sooner.

    We've got few data releases tonight later during NY session. But i don't think that will change much of Yellens position.

    If indicators that are due during NY session turns out to be bullish for USD whether or not Fed decides to increase the rate sooner than later I think we'll expect to see major moves once again I think. Hang in there Mike! You've got it.

    NZ Consumer confidence lowers and credit card spending rises at a slower rate. Looks bearish to me especially after low dairy price and cut in key forecasts. I'm looking at pairs to ride NZD down with long term , USD GBP comes to mind for now.

    FE.. I looked at GBPNZD setup that you suggested to ride NZD down with longer term. i like the setup , fundamental and sentiment just seems to support that. However what I'm concerned with is that Eurozone is very sluggish now with euro weaking even further and is the biggest trade partner to UK. I wonder if Eurozone will hinder UK's recovery.

    See you around guys in the morning /at your time zones evening for me/
    Last edited by rookie39; 08-21-2014 at 02:26 AM.

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