First of all: as Dstan said, I made a mistake in my second post of this thread! I cannot correct it anymore. Be aware please even if I do not always write, the percentages refer always to the percentage of the Non-commercial speculator segment as I mostly make my decisions based on their action.
So a bit earlier I evaluated the performance of the last week (two trades are doing great, one break even but actually is also ok because of positive rollover).
I looked at the COT report which was shortly published a couple of hours before and I make decisions based on the CURRENT Cot report. As I said earlier I try to update my trades always based on the current and newest Cot report (comes out always on Fridays).
[B]CAD/CHF long[/B]: I do believe that this trade is going to play out good. I have of course a stop loss as in all the trades but the actual Cot report suggests for me to [B]stay in the trade[/B]. CAD looks strong, CHF does not so the setup is still valid. More than that, even the negative Fundamentals for CAD could not give a gain for CHF so I believe in the strength of CAD.
[B]NZD/CAD short[/B]: well,[B] I will enter this setup[/B]. Until now it was theory but I also believe in this one. NZD fights to stay bullish, but the numbers tell me they lost the steam. Of course I might be wrong however a huge proportion of non-commercial traders are long and there are not too many left to buy!
[B]GBP/USD short[/B]: this trade was a theory only, though a winning theory! It will however do not come into practice as GBP does not give me a clear signal what to do. If I was in a trade, [B]I would liquidate now[/B]. So I just better stay away from this pair. In the long term I am still bearish, but I do not enter it without the signal!
These above mentioned trades have one disadvantage. If you like to diversify your trading you should not enter both of the trades I guess because CAD is involved in both of them which increases your risk if it goes the wrong direction. A possible solution might be as ForexUnlimited wrote to trade with smaller position sizes and it is then effective for risk control.
Tomorrow I will go more into detail for every single currency what the numbers tell and what is the theory behind. However it is quite late and I just wanted to update the three trades based on the new report.
So stay tuned and tomorrow/or on Sunday the new ideas are coming for the next week!