Hi guys!
Man…I’m sitting here getting caught up on the thread. Yep your right FE, I feel REAL good having the big dog step in and mention about my post. I am truly honored.
Ok…that’s nice…let’s move on.
I’ll tell you what I have on that.
I’ve kept track since the beginning of the year. This is how I figure it out. Simply adding up the up days and down days, pitted against each other. So, like yesterday, the majors have it, 20-8, and comm’s are 3-15. That means majors all totaled 20 up and 8 down and the difference being +12. The comm’s only have 3 up and 15 down. Difference being -12. That means (the comms): AUD had an up day against the GBP and NZD, that’s 2 of the three. Then CAD had an up day against NZD. That would make 3. I realize just now that I am counting a comm against a comm, and probably shouldn’t be, but that’s how I’ve been doing it. Just adding up the total of who had an up day or down day. And I should mention that if a pair has 10 pips or less, I count as even. I always know who had an up day, down day, or even. And in this regards, I just group all of them into the majors/comms. That’s 5 against 3. And I’ll tell you, it is interesting to see how it always goes back and forth. It’s like I can even predict which one will be on top. But anyway, from the beginning of the year up to now, it shakes out even. Majors have 13 weeks of being up on the Comms, Comms have 13 weeks up, and there was one week when they were dead even. There was 3 different times when the Comms had a streak of being up 3 weeks in a row. Weeks 11, 12 13; 17,18,19; 23,24,25. We’re in week 28 of this year now.
The majors had only 2 different times when they were up 3 weeks in a row. Week 1,2,3; and week 14,15,16. But it’s been back and forth the last 2-3 weeks. Last week went to the Comms. So far this week the majors are up a good bit (+12) with one more day to go. And it’s funny cause it seems like the comms are making some strides back today. I kinda think that they will pull it back to maybe even.
That’s all nice, but it’s still hard to tell WHICH currency in particular will be the strongest of their group. There could be a good hedge strategy in there somewhere.
I’ll give more details later.
Hope you can understand some of that.
Mike