Hey guys!
Here’s the update of COT non commercials report as of 29 July 2014
[B]AUD[/B]
Net position: 39,606 (+813)
Open interest: 106,836 (-)
Buyers have added onto their longs last week as we see an increase of 813 to 39,606 from 38,703 while open interest has decreased slightly. Aussie dollar still looks strong with majority holding long.
[B]CAD[/B]
Net position: 22,691 (+2110)
Open interest: 122,619 (-)
Like I mentioned in my previous post buyers have been adding on to their longs progressively since 1 of July when CAD net position readings took a reversal from minus to positive readings. Last week buyers have added on their longs once again with some drop in open interest. While we have been seeing a nice steady increase in net position crude oil price is stuck between $97-105 trading range a major support area. US domestic oil production hit 25 year high in addition to that Iraq and Libya’s oil production doubled pushing oil prices further down. On the other spectrum the dollar index is trading near major resistance that if it breaks out there might be a further decline in crude oil in turn will affect the value of CAD.
[B]NZD[/B]
Net position: 15,289 (+157)
Open interest: 30,531 (-)
There was a small increase in net position from 15,132 to 15,289 with decrease in open interest. The lowest net position reading was on 17 June 2014 at 3,733 since Sep 2014. Since then the kiwi has been climbing up higher at a steady rate. Compared to its other peers /comms/ NZD has been enjoying a positive readings for most of the weeks for the last year with only 4 weeks of negative readings. But with declining dairy price /demand/ and overproduction will NZD be able to hold up its value and enjoy net positive readings any longer against other currencies ?
[B]EUR[/B]
Net position: -108,075 (+19,252)
Open interest: 356,865 (+)
EUR net shorts have increased quite a bit again from -88,823 to -108,075 as longs in % declines.
[B]GBP[/B]
Net position: 24,910 (-2587)
Open interest: 237,411 (-)
[B]JPY[/B]
Net position: -73,069 (+19,153)
Open interest: 172,210 (+)
JPY net longs in % has dropped down to 8.82% while net position has increased further more from -53,916 to -73,069. The highest net position readings was in Dec 2013 at -143,822. As I have mentioned JPY has always had a minus readings mostly within around 50,000-80,000 range.
[B]CHF[/B]
Net position: -11,764 (+4384)
Open interest: 44,022
I’m looking to take long term trades with short EUR/AUD, EUR/JPY and EURGBP as they seem to be trending. I was also eyeing on CAD/CHF and EUR/CAD but the trend seems to have been broken my technicals tells me so and when I look at the charts. Both of my short term long/short trades have been closed SL triggered. So I’ve crossed CAD/CHF and EUR/CAD out.
But I’ll also be paying close attention to US dollar index as they are nearing key resistance. If there’s a break out and an uptrend starts my outlook on commodity currencies might change to bearish that includes CAD as well. Until then I’ll short EUR as they seem to be the weakest of all but only if my technicals align with my bias. I’ll keep you guys updated!!