Hi hard working team,
here are my reactions for the many posts:
Philip,
you can change the currencies with clicking on the Symbol signal. I found it also after a while but it works. Williams traded on the weekly charts. This makes sense as the COT Report comes out weekly, he uses the 52 weekly MA and the 26 weeks COT Index. You have a great memory, I know we used this site and did not like it too much. For this reason I wrote it is definitely better than nothing and we can give it a try. As I do not see any other sites with such a source, at this point I do not have a choice. The charts I checked gave only a few signals, which looks promising. I make a print screen to show what I see and we can compare our findings! I will definitely not pay $250 for entry techniques. I do believe I find everything I need on the forums or in books about that. I just look for the signals on the weekly charts and then enter maybe on a 4H TF. The only thing I do not get how come you have so many signals. I looked at the 3 years AUD/USD chart and found two signals! That is not much. Keep in mind, only because COT Index is in extreme it is not a signal. The MA has to confirm it. And only to the direction of the trend. Now these circumstances reduce the signals. BTW the 2nd signal is about to occur soon. I post it. You might have a point with the signal difference in comm. vs fx. I cannot say anything about that at this point. I also do agree not making the trades only based on this. But the setups look good and then we can decide if it matches our bias and look for an ideal setup based on technicals.
rookie,
AUD really really really disappointed me. I said I will watch out with it, I think I will not even open more trades in the near future. Have you seen the great jobs report? There was a very positive reaction which was faded in a couple of hours! Even if there was negative Chinese data out there, it should have not been faded! I hope it is the geopolitical risk because of ISIS. That would be the only argument that AUD is still strong but there is risk off sentiment. 1 report usually do not change my bias but it was extremely strong jobs report and faded in a very short-time which is something important to remember later on. We should not be desperate though, carry trade is also on our side.
BTW I am lost with you rookie. I thought you are from the USD. But if you wanted to wake up for NZD statement then the question remains in which continent do you actually live?
And you do get the one day to catch up with COT index and the book recaps Thanks for checking out the timecharting site and for the feedback.
Ok, I just read in another post that you closed your AUD trades. Good job and good for you. I slept and did not. At least you got out the right time with a retracement. With you writing about the news. Hmmm…. I find it a long shot. On one side I do think if you trade in the direction of your bias, in the long-term you come out good (at this time long with USD before news, short with EUR and short with NZD). On the other side I find it almost impossible to forecast a very single report. Have you thought for example that US NFP is going to be weak after so strong reports? I think going long with the next 100 USD news, we have a chance of being right 65%-70% of the time. But to say it for an exact report I have no clue to do so. That is why I either like to trade in the direction of my bias or later to fade the news. I like news trading so I want to see what you come up. However keep thinking about it as it is a risky business. Do not forget how disappointed you were when you lost some of the news trading. It is not to encourage you, only to remember that it can also go wrong pretty fast. Your pair decision (AUD/EUR) was definitely good, and I think it was good you did not take the +80 pips. Chance for good that there will be a follow through vs. the EUR. You had a positive edge so gaining “only” +50 pips was definitely worth the risk. (Just read now Philip says the same for this last issue.) Regarding you last post, AUD hype might be over but USD will last; that is how I see. But anything can of course happen.
Mike,
you made a good grade with GBP/NZD good job. Actually I think you made it good because you found the edge. This time the edge was that NZD brings mostly bad data out which suggests you had a more than 50% chance to win. Good work.
I am glad you reached your goal for the month. As you say, it takes discipline to analyze but do not trade for 3 weeks. I could not do that. And it is great that you have the time to figure out the important COT index.
flows,
thanks for the MA change setting. I knew that 10 eyes see more than 2 and we can get this one. Also thanks how the different groups here explained. I find it strange though why speculators are the non-reportable. However it is like this and we work like that.
To all of you,
I am also skeptical with the site but still give it a try. I checked now some of the data, random picked from COT report. They were accurate. The problem is that you have so many settings with time frames, bars etc. that I find the site not efficient and not user friendly. I think the false data comes not from the bad site but from the tough settings and if we do not pay attention we have bad settings and these produce bad results.
And guys, please fingers crossed for my XAG/USD trade. It got triggered. As Philip said, here are the pips different so big money will be made or lost. Would be great to have a run here and correct a bit my exotic currencies.
Ok, now I need a break after reading about 20-25 posts. But first I post the charts I said.