COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

I managed to get my hands on Larry Williams’ Sure Thing Commodity Trading course :slight_smile: There are a lot of new and potentially profitable information there!

I’ll make a summary once I’m finished.

Hi everyone,

I have not had the time to read the posts but I try it until the evening. [I]BB[/I], a short question: how is the database “faster” creating video doing? Have you started it?

Thanks,
FE

I downloaded a capture software. I’ll make the video tomorrow.

Hi Team,

I just wanted to say it has disadvantage that we are slow with the process of covering all markets. Yesterday I clicked Timingcharts.com through, every single product if there is a COT signal. It is of course not as exact as our analysis, but as we cover a few markets, it was a lot better than nothing. I researched after the products where I found signals and entered 3 small buy positions which I want to hold for long-term:

Wheat, Soybean and Cotton

Besides the Commercial COT readings, I found some seasonal trends and entered the trades without absolutely no further knowledge than COT. We will see if it is enough to make a winning long-term trade in unknown markets.

BB or anyone else, negative or positive thoughts are welcome. All products were on COT extreme a little while ago and I thought the price is still good for long-term trades.

FE

Hi FE,

How about this. On distribution. I’ll take EUR, CHF from majors AUD and NZD from commdolls /I have a soft spot for them :)/ So thats that the currencies. As far as I know you do JPY. So I’ll leave yen for you.

From agricultural commodities let me start off with corn and wheat assuming they aren’t taken just yet. I’ll settle down with those for now. What do you say ?

I was tempted to do coffee and sugar. Was thinking of actual coffee & sugar. Yeah, how logical/rational of me.

I’m going to be a little slow on analysis until I get it - the whole process. One at a time.

Hi guys,

Rookie,
nice chart on Copper, COT is also on extremes (as BB also confirmed). Tell us when you see the signal to go long.

Mike,
you are more and more quiet. Talk to us! What is with you? I just saw your daily chart but there were no words. That is strange from you, buddy.

BB,
don’t mess up that course. It sounds good and hopefully the thread can be proud of you. I do not know how you found it or if it cost you money but make us that summary in the end. We are excited for sure.

FE

Hi Rookie,

that is a strange time to see you aroung the thread!

So about the distirubtion. I have bad news to you. I am sorry. If you check BBs post (number 1971), he already analysis Sugar and Coffee. I am sure that hurts you but if you really want to do it, discuss it with BB in PM and tell us the result. Or just meet up guys and decide it with pure strength. Man vs. Man.

There is also some problem with currencies :-))) You are greedy! You forgot that if you make 4, I make 2 and in case [I][B]Philip[/B][/I] and [I][B]Mike[/B][/I] want to participate then there is only 1-1 left. So I would say we give some time for our two collegaues to answer. Let’s say two days :slight_smile: Besides the 4 pairs, I would suggest to change the selection a bit. The problem is you chose exactly the currencies which have a very high correlation. I think it would be good to give AUD and NZD for two separate people and CHF to separate with EUR. If we only do the two of us then instead of EUR or CHF you can take GBP and instead of one comdoll CAD. IMO that would make more sense. Besides that I am also greedy and want to have either NZD or AUD!

It seems like it is good that we started already the distribution as it will take some time to discuss it. From agricultural commodities I would only like to have Soybean as I am in it. You can choose what you want but please also look at BBs list.

And you can also choose an index. BB took S&P, choose which one you wish and I take from the rest.

So as far as I understand you also add 1 product/week to your database. It is not bad. I also do it that way. We have a little time until we set it all up but I do not think the 2 months will change too much. In the beginning it really takes time but now every week it goes better to me. And I already have some products so it is more and more every week.

I am waiting for your answer,
FE

Hey guys.
Tuesday results.

NZD: +6 -0 1///+5 -0 0
AUD: +6 -0 1///+5 -0 0
GBP: +4 -2 1///+1 -2 0
EUR: +3 -2 2///+1 -2 0
CHF: +2 -3 2///+0 -2 1
CAD: +2 -4 1///+2 -2 1
USD: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
JPY : +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0

Comms took this one. +10

A couple things I notice. First how NZD is strong. Both days so far. Also GBP has been strong and steady. Sure we will have the strong USD, and their either up or down. Same for the AUD. And we can see where the JPY is going. I think I was right about them. This IS a game changer for them. They are worst than the EUR.

Ok guys.
0110 GMT


Mike

Hi FE,

For currencies I’ll do either EUR & AUD, or GBP & AUD. I just can’t part with the aussie dollar :-)). I didn’t mean to do coffee & sugar you must have misunderstood my point, it was a joke.

I’ll settle down with corn & wheat. And as for indices I’ll see what I have at my broker and if thats in with COT report as well and will get back to you. I would like to analyse instruments that I can trade at my current broker and I’m assuming same goes for everyone. I’ve had US russell 2000 I remember Peter talking about that one. And some other indices called wall st 30, bund I’ll figure that out first.

Let’s see what Mike and Philip has to say and we’ll go from there.

And since BB analyses pretty much everything. And his main purpose on this thread is to study historical charts and signals. We’ve got to catch up with him in terms of database. So I’m assuming it shouldn’t really matter if we analyse the same instrument as long as we don’t do similar instruments in between us me, you, Mike & Philip in case if they decide to join. My point is we can do the distribution within us or whoever decides to join except for BB. Of course it is ideal that as time goes by everyone develops a database that of like BBs. But for now that should do. Sounds good ?

Yep I’m going to be doing it your way. I’m planning to introduce one instrument per week. And as with time and experience the whole process should become easier & faster. Bear with us BB! We’ll get there soon…

And I’m /we’re/ waiting on your video tutorial :51:

PS: Lol FE! See i didn’t have to use any physical power. All is settled. Or I hope.

And on copper. Guys…

Think I’m slowly starting to realize the importance of COT & Willco signals. Its even better if those signals are produced at major weekly S&R levels. That was the case with Copper. At the least it could have been a pretty good short term setup with high probablity.

And Mike! Hope all is well. I’m guessing you’ve been reading your book and working up on your game plan all this while. And on setting up the database if you need more direction and help let me know. I’ll help out with what i can. But I’m hoping BB would post a video tutorial. We’ll see. You don’t want to miss out on COT & Willco signals :-))

Okay, I’m new to this video thing and all, but my 2 minutes long video’s size is 7GB. That seems a little too much. Instead of a video, I’ll give you the steps again with pictures.

First of all, you should have at least an instrument in your database already, as we are going to use it’s template.

Step #1

Go to CFTC’s website and download the Futures and Options Combined compressed data from '95-2013.


Step #2

Once downloaded, unzip it with WinRar. You should see two excel files, one named Com04_13, the other Com95_03. We will need the former, as it contains the data from 2004 to 2013.

Now, open it, as well as your Excel database. We’ll search for Silver.

Step #3

You already know how to search the document, so I won’t cover it again. Once you found what you are looking for (Silver), simply copy the data from 2011 to 2013 to a blank sheet in your database.



Step #4

Unfortunately, you have to download 2014’s data separately. Do just that, then copy and paste the data of Silver. By now, your sheet in your database should look like this.


What we did, is obtain the data from 2011 to 2014 in a few simple steps.

Step #5

Okay, it’s time to create order in the chaos.

We are going to get rid of all the unnecessary columns. Simply click on the column letters to highlight the content.

Once you have them, press Ctrl+C and copy the data to a new blank sheet.



Step #6

Now, we are talking! Press Ctrl+A, then sort the database.


Here where things gets a little complicated. Make a new blank sheet then copy the database of an instrument you already have. You can do it by pressing Ctrl+A, then Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V.


We are at the finish line, hang on!

Step #7

Copy the data of Silver to replace the other instrument’s.




There you go, you have your database. All that remains is to make it visually pleasing, but that should be something you can do yourself by now.

Hey guys.

I’m ok.
I don’t think you all realize how much I am in over my head with this stuff. Look…I can give you a hundred excuses why I’m not getting anywhere with that stuff. All I can say is it’s hard for me. I’m an old dog. And trying to learn new tricks is getting more and more difficult. For as much as I love stats, that’s probably the only reason why I still am trying. If I were you I wouldn’t wait up for me. As I keep saying, it is gonna take a long time. That’s only the truth. You guys are young and smart.
What more can I say. I’m not offended if you move on with this stuff without me. I’m still here. Always will be.

Mike

Hi Mike,

thanks for the answer. Well, on my side I can only tell you I had most problems in my life when I let anger accumulating in myself. Do not do that. I give it all out here in the thread and I move on.

You have no idea how many mistakes I made/make in trading. I could write you books about it. Still, I look optimistic about it and learn it. I look at your stats for example every day. Just the last example: I entered today early GBP short because I expected negative news. But against which currency should I take the trade? The decision was easy: [I]lets check out Mike’s list and enter on a currency which was weak yesterday.[/I] I entered GBP/CAD short in the end.

What you say about going on I understand. Then we do not give you know the new COT analysis. You should take your time, learn excel and I advice you the two books to read. They helped me a lot. You can read our new COT analysis on a weekly basis to get a feeling for it. After you have those, you can do BBs tutorial which is nicely described and explained. It takes all some time, but they guide you to the right direction.

Do not get upset Mike, trading is a tough business. We are there with you,

FE

Hey FE.

Just to clear it up. It’s not trading that gets to me, it’s that dog gone COT, EXCEL, WILCO stuff. I just cannot join you in that, now, anyway.
My trading is definitely under control. I feel good in my progress towards consistency. I adjusted some stuff in my trading plan (strategy, money management).
So, when I think about the market, sure, I get excited, every time. But when I think about using excel, I get frustrated.
It’s just gonna take a lot of time.

Mike

Hi Guys,

Here is a little chart, it’s a very old way of using stochs on a hr1 - look for divergences on highs and lows at session openings -

This is Eur/Usd hr1 this past 2 days - the very last candle is 7.00am gmt (London traders yawning and stretching after a good night’s sleep).

See how that last candle is a bullish candle and it made a new high - poor old stoch clouldn’t get that excited about the new high - watching this live and long from the Asian low the first thing that struck me was that the stoch would have great difficulty ever getting to match it’s own last high - I understood that price would have to soar for the stoch to even make it up level with it’s own previous high.

This was how I read the divergence, it was clear that the round number would be the limit of price climb.

There are a couple of other divergences, I just wanted to tell what I was thinking in this morning’s one.

Oh - btw the stoch … it’s called Willspread :slight_smile:

Here it is again on Thursday and Monday past, both at New York opening - (I was not in these trades).

Willspread is being used as a strength meter, influencing market is USDX, I invert the reading to make it easy to see the divergence live.

Because it’s inverted then the higher the red line is, the stronger Euro is (weaker USDX), thus on Nov 6 the high in price was not being matched by a strong Euro, the reluctance of willspread to rise was indicating a strong USDX, weak Euro - Likewise on Monday.

Hi Mike,

I see you have problems with Excel. But you have to see it earlier or later it does make sense to learn it. If it only for Forex, then maybe for something else you would need it. Of course I do not want to tell you what to do, everyone can decide. I also understand if you do not wish to do it. I just distribute the markets and when you are ready to join the COT analysis (of course only if you wish) then you tell us and we distribute it again.

Keep up the good work,
FE

Hi Rookie,

sorry that I answer short but I am in a hurry.

I read everything you wrote so I thought for your first week the currencies might be enough to analyse, everything else we can devide later.

How do you like this distribution for currencies:

[I]Rookie[/I]: GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD
[I]FE[/I]: JPY, RUB, NZD, EUR

This way we both have a comdoll (you have two), a safe haven, either EUR or CHF and either NZD or AUD. Basically all connected currencies are divied which is good I guess.

And rookie, I guess you make some kind of a joke with me! I told you corn and wheat are taken! You can choose something like apple or chips. I read you want to analyse the same instrument as BB. The idea is not bad when we are 5 people to analyse the whole market. At this moment we are only three and I think it is a luxury at the moment to do the same markets when most of the markets are not covered by anyone.