Hey guys.
Here’s some stats. For the month of November. Pips against everyone totaled up. (barometer of strength)
(weekly candles)
Week 1///////Week 2/////////Week 3///////////Week 4//////////Totals////////
USD: +538///NZD: +1625//CAD: +1078////EUR: +1117////NZD: +1617
CHF: +411///AUD: +1060///GBP: +429/////CHF: +930//////CHF: +1491
NZD: +325///CHF: +555////USD: +426/////GBP: +614//////USD: +1234
CAD: +243///CAD: +305////NZD: -121//////USD: +358/////EUR: +628
EUR: +180///EUR: +125////JPY : -171///////NZD: -212//////CAD: +560
GBP: -159////USD: -88//////CHF: -405///////JPY : -249//////GBP: -1253
AUD: -665////JPY : -1445///AUD: -440///////CAD: -1066////AUD: -1537
JPY : -874////GBP: -2137///EUR: -794////////AUD: -1492////JPY : -2739
And if you add them up the Comms had +640 pips up against the majors.
Concerning the CHF. I’ve been thinking. Why are they up there? We know they tail the EUR. But there is a divergence there. It surely isn’t because of fundamentals, on their own anyway. Maybe their current account balance. But I think they represent an absence of something. Like their the recipient of the opposite side of both strength and weakness of the other currencies. For instance, we all know how weak the Yen is. So, surely the CHF will strengthen. And whoever else is weak, (EUR) you gonna go long CHF. Also whoever is strong you know your gonna go against them. So I’m thinking they represent the middle of the road, and on the playing field you can gauge the balance of everyone by looking at them. And now since they are close to the top that tells me (this month anyway) that there has been more different currencies selling across the board than buying. Ok…maybe like being a bear market. As I look back on my records, in the beginning of the year it was the Pound and Swiss that dominated the market. Feb and March is when the last time the CHF shined. And we’re talking big time. And if you remember that’s when the USD was supposed to be coming back. There was so much anticipation for the Dollar to dominate. “This is the year of the Dollar” Well, that was delayed until summer time came. But, in the mean time, the CHF was the substitute. And no one else stepped up, cause at that time (early spring) that’s when the GBP was coming down off their highs. And we all knew the EUR was fretting about their inflation situation. So they were not strong then. And then come end of March is when the Comms took center stage. The CHF had to step away and let them rule the world. The Comms dominated up until the end of July. (All 3 Comms dominated). Then at the end of July is when the USD became boss. They have had a good run. But now (as you guys have stated) they are faultering a bit. So, for this month we have a pretty strong Dollar still, one strong Comm, and the CHF in between them.
So, there’s my thoughts on the CHF, with a little bit of looking back on the year.
I remember writing up about the CAD last week. Talking about how strong they are, and being able to play both sides of the field. Well…look at what happened to them between the 3rd week and 4th week. They have erased those pips, just like that. I wonder what was the cause of that. Maybe Doc can elaborate.
Well, if you don’t know by now, I like to see the big picture and keep it always in mind.
Maybe at the end of the year, coming up soon, I should give a good recap on what took place this year. I can put them all into perspective for you and how they related to one another.
But, the question is…does it (history) really have an affect on what happens in the future? Or is it just purely history, and the future brings completely different stories…
Mike
