I can only second [B]FE[/B] here. I’m really glad that I stumbled upon the thread, to get to know you guys and for you accepting me as a member of the team. I’ve learned a lot since my first post here. It’s always constructive to get mixed with like-minded individuals. Well, I just want to say thank you guys and I hope we’ll continue our work in 2015 as well!
My COT analysis will come tomorrow.
Funny you should ask, working on that, let’s see in the new year.
Happy Christmas you guys, and a peaceful and successful new year.
Well I want to wish us all a merry Christmas and a happy new year. May 2015 be full of pips for us all. Like FE, I will not participate in the thread next week unless there is a noteworthy move. I’m really focusing for the next two quarters on buying USJPY, USDCHF and selling NZDUSD. I won’t be involved much in other currencies unless GBP steps up. I currently have two positions open; USDJPY and USDCHF for a combined profit of 42 pips. I will hold until after the break most likely.
Since my COT analysis yielded no results I thought I share some updates on oil. Earlier this week Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest oil producers in the world, released its budget for the next fiscal year. It is the first budget in 45 years that posts a deficit.
Despite that, Saudi Minister of Finance said that his country will not lower production even if oil production reaches $30. This suggests that the country is looking to aggressively challenge Shale oil producers and put them out of business. There strategy is actually showing success but will need time to for the results to come out. Some Shale Oil producers will definitely default on their loans in 2015 as the price of oil is now lower than Shale. This doesn’t mean that Saudi Arabia will win, but it definitely makes it an interesting battle.
It is worth noting that an earlier Gann analysis I shared marked $33 and $14 as possible reversal points for oil. My expectation for the commodity in 2015 is to see price stabilize for a little, rally before falling again. My plan for 2015 is to sit out the rally and sell it all the way down to $33.
Good luck with your trading lads.
Hey guys!
Well, for the last about 3 days or so I’ve been very sick. But I’m finally coming out of it now. And I just got caught up on the thread. Yeah, after I just posted the stats for the week, I basically went to bed and didn’t get up for the last 24 straight hours.
I do want to wish you all guys a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! When I look back at the year, I do realize I (and we also) have come a long way. But also realize there is so much to learn. This is just how it is. It’s a tough market. But we all are learning so much. It’s about progression. Just think where we will be in say 5 yrs from now. Just that much more smarter about it all. And, more than anything, it’s just fun and exciting! So my wish is that we will continue on with learning from each other, all the while becoming more successful in our business endeavors.
Fe…I got you. I’ll get these stats out to you soon. This won’t take long. I’ll compile it and have it out to you in minutes from now.
BTW…I just started my 2 week vacation (from work). I will be off till after the holidays. I’m very excited!
It is a shame the market won’t be flying, but that won’t stop me from working. It only means more time for me to continue on with my research. If you remember, I’m putting things into perspective and it’s taking a lot of time. Very interesting stuff. It’s all about getting ready for next year.
Ok…Fe…stats coming…
Mike
Stats for Dec.
[B]Week 1[/B]//////////[B]Week 2[/B]///////////[B]Week 3[/B]/////////[B]TOTAL[/B]
CAD +963///////JPY +1685///////USD +837///////////GBP +1119
GBP +758///////CHF +651////////NZD +725///////////NZD +1050
USD +755 //////EUR +585////////CAD +602///////////USD +968
CHF -116 ///////NZD +483////////GBP +78////////////JPY +314
NZD -158 //////GBP +283////////AUD -67//////////////CAD -98
EUR -433 //////USD -624/////////JPY -149/////////////CHF -361
AUD -547 //////AUD -1400///////CHF -896/////////////EUR -978
JPY -1222//////CAD -1663///////EUR -1130///////////AUD -2014
Hey guys!
Here comes the analysis of the COT report for 2014.12.16.
Metals
Copper - Bullish
Gold - Neutral
Silver - Neutral
Palladium - Neutral
Platinum - Neutral
Grains
Wheat - Neutral
Corn - Mixed (more on that below)
Softs
Coffee - Neutral
Cotton - Neutral
Sugar - Bullish
Energies
Crude Oil - Neutral
Gasoline - Neutral
Natural Gas - Bullish
Others
Treasury Bonds - Neutral
VIX Index - Almost bearish
We have 3 bullish signals and 1 mixed signal.
Corn
The chart does not tells us much about the OI. It has been bouncing back-and-forth since 2012. There is no apparent consistency between OI highs and lows and NP extremes.
That’s what I mean by a mixed signal. Funds are extremely bullish while Commercials are still 10% away from the extreme zone. It is important to note however, that the setup was similar when Corn’s price reversed the last time. Despite the fact that Funds were at 93%, the Commercials reached 22%.
Nothing to note on Commercial Movement Index.
CP/OI (Willco) flashing a sell signal (0%)
As I noted earlier, Wheat and Corn has a positive relationship. They are moving in perfect harmony since the rall.
Conclusion: I’m waiting for a sell signal from Wheat or a Commercial sell signal.
Well I said I would post on only important story and I just found one. I read a story,this, for currency traders this piece of news should put us on alert as it should signal a fundamental shift.
It puts AUD for me in a bearish trend similar to EUR and JPY. My assessment of the currencies are as follow (they are listed in order of bullishness:
Hi Balazs,
hmmm the analysis are great but the setups are extremely dangerous. After the Nat Gas loss I will be cautious. You wrote Nat Gas us bullish. I believe it will become a good buy at this moment it is only gambling. Last week it seemed good just above the main support zone which was broken so it seems only guessing to see when it turns.
Sugar, yes the support zone holds and looks like it is a good R/R trade.
Corn and Wheat looks the most dangerous to me. Looking at the charts everything comes to my mind except a reversal. Saying that, of course the COT report is there to spot those reversals and as I did not analyse it I do not know what the report says. Maybe you can shoot it up. However the recent rally looks very strong so be careful with that trade!
Good luck,
FE
Hi Philip,
I like your USD, JPY and AUD view because I can agree 
I am very cautious with the EUR. They made nice gains lately and also produced nice data. The question will be if these are retracements or reversals.
FE
Hey guys!
So its been about 6 months roughly since we embarked on this journey. Agree with FE and Mike, we’ve come a long way. But like Mike said there’s so much more to learn, the learning curve will never end. I’m hoping that we’ll arrive at a completely different level as regards to understanding of market by the end of next year. I’m assuming most of you guys will take a break, well I do suggest some time off. So that we can start off the new year with full of energy. 
Happy Holidays guys ! and take care Mike ! I guess I should be thankful for living in a tropical weather, but its been getting very cool lately.
There’ no signal for me report this week. So I’ll report on specs positioning.
Russell 2000 mini - specs are bearish
AUD - specs are bearish
GBP - specs are bearish
CAD - specs are bearish
CHF - specs are bearish
I have a suspicion that there’s going to a correction soon for AUD. So beware of taking long term short position on AUD.
We’ll need a bigger force to break through this level. If you checked lower TFs since 18 Dec corn has failed to create new highs on 15M and 30M. Wait for a retest and going short seems like an okay setup.
[B]FE[/B], I don’t take the trades just because Commercials are bullish on Natural Gas. I just share them with you, so you can act on the signals as you see fit. Wheat is especially responsive to Commercial extremes, but we are not there just yet. Patience is key.
Hi BB,
you are right, patience is key. Just shared my worries that we get into something too fast again
Tell me if you get a signal and I will also check it how I find it.
Rookie,
good point for AUD, I will get into the analysis of shorting it in January. Now I do not look after that one. But as we were long on it quite often and the rate cut news are growing, it does seem to be a good long-term opportunity.
FE
Hi Guys,
I know we don’t often talk of things like pivots etc, I just thought I’d post something that happens quite frequently on S&P - 15min chart.
The lines on the right are today’s pivots, R1 happens to coincide with very recent highs (blue line), when you see the break of that and you say ’ wish I had caught that’ - no need to worry, it often pays a fleeting visit again, just like a few hours ago.
And Finally…
FE mentioned re using ETF’s for currency, as previously mentioned they can be used a heads upper to investor sentiment, a few days notice of change or end of pullback.
Recently there has been much market talk re risk, this played out a lot on USD/JPY
The largest bear etf, (one that tracks inversely) is Proshares’ UltraShort Yen (YCS).
Note the recent volume, note too the spike in volume before the change in USD/JPY.
Check USD/JPY daily to see what I’m talking about.
So if, for example, USD/JPY is falling, you would expect to see a falling in this ETF volume, then if it happens to spike up - head up
I think doing historical analysis on this phenomenon is well worth the time. I’m wondering if these currency ETFs corrresponds to cross pairs as well.
Yes Rookie, although volume is needed to make proper analysis.
The purpose of the above etf is to allow investors easy exposure to risk, it’s a leveraged fund (200%) and it is shorting the yen, so if an investor wants risk and he wants to buy that risk in USD, well just buy into the fund.
Imagine you had your investments in Yen and you wanted out of that and into the rising USD, so if you go and change your Yen into Usd, what then? - you would want to buy risk with those Usd’s
It’s second largest currency etf in asset value, there are more, I’ll post on those after Christmas.
I’ll make sure to write those biggest etfs down.
The blue line represents USDJPY, red Proshares Ultra short yen and the last line represents Proshares Ultra Yen.
I got it Peter, buying into Proshares Ultra Short Yen basically means buying into USD rally and the opposite for Proshares Ultra Yen. Notice the gain I’m assuming its y.o.y ? Oh boy that Proshares Ultra Short Yen is climbing higher !
Yes Rookie, see the gains since beginning of Sep correspond with the rise in volume levels - seems those investors are a little clever.
BTW, are those charts Tradingview?
Its yahoo interactive chart. If you view a single instrument you will be able to see the volume on the bottom. I prefer the visual presentation of their chart. Stockschart is good in a technical way. But thats just me.
