Yes, that’s politicians - good at talking, maybe not so good at getting things done.
Decision time for me on the S&P on Monday, whilst there was a good probability of the new high the only doubt was what would be the cause of the rise.
It came on the back of earnings which is positive, had it merely been on sentiment then I would have immediately exited on Monday.
Mornin’ fellas! :44:
The database is updated, so here are the results.
Wheat
I mentioned Wheat last week as a possible long opportunity. The signal just got stronger, the CI (Composite Index) is currently 1% which is as bullish as it gets.
I did not go long during the week, because I simply wanted to get in at a better price.
Looking at the H4 chart, I think I’ll go long on the market’s open.
Crude Oil
We are not at an extreme yet, although I’ll pay close attention to the instrument. One would expect a bullish CI signal, but at the moment, it certainly seems like that we’ll be fed with a bearish one. CI is currently at 74%.
Hi BB,
happy to see your analysis, also wanted to share what I found. First on your Sugar trade: as we are a team I thought it is important to remind you that you only wanted to trade in the direction of the main trend. With the sugar trade you would go exactly against the main trend. Do not forget that.
On the other hand you analysed Crude Oil. Exactly that is the commodity I found interesting. It reached a 100% 6 months COT Index extreme which is a sell signal. More than that, the long-term trend is also bearish so this signal looks valid.
We can wait for Rookie and Philip if they make their analysis and maybe share their views on Crude oil.
Have a nice weekend everyone,
FE
I think you mean Wheat instead of Sugar. Yep, that trade goes against the current bearish trend, but as I said before, Grains (especially Wheat and Corn) are extremely responsive to Commercial extremes and therefore are exceptions of my counter-trend rule.
About WTI, I’ll wait for a 3 years extreme before shorting.
Hi BB,
yes, I mean Wheat. Ok, then please update us how your Wheat trade is in case you enter the market. I am interested for that counter trend trade but at the same time strong singal. We will see how it develops itself.
Have a nice Sunday,
FE
Hey guys, BB
I’ve been looking at wheat since last week thought it would shoot up but it didn’t buyers were in lack of some upward momentum there. From a technical point of view its oversold, couple that up with PA daily is usually a good indication to place the bet. Good thing that I stopped by the thread, I was almost going to mark that as a sell, if it was going to break down.
There’s a buy signal on corn as well however the price just broke down as of friday close what do you say about that ? a better price to long or ?
Hi Rookie,
nice charts. On the other side, what do you mean when you say: “Good thing that I stopped by the thread…?” Actually you should be here on a daily basis!
So, my problem is that most setups (corn and wheat) are against the main trend. The better setup is however Wheat, like BB pointed out it is on a net position extreme. Maybe we could all watch this “live” and you can share with us when you get a buy signal on the daily. We can then decide if we take action or not.
Have a great week everyone,
FE
Hi Peter,
congratulations on your S&P new high, you were very patient and made a nice gain. How did you decide: did you take partial profits or you have your trades still open?
Good trading for you further on with it,
FE
Okay, I just got murdered on my long position 
Well, hopefully I’ll have better luck next time!
My friend stick to your trading plan and goal for this year you shared with us in the beginning of the year: “I only trade to the direction of the main trend.”
Crude looks better and it is the main trend. Maybe Gold and Silver did not let Crude to fall today. We will see how it continues.
FE
Hi FE,
I stuck with the original plan - closed the trade after the new high, I’d expect some sort of pull back now, so maybe long again later.
Now flat, but there has been a positive development on Greece. It seems that your thread was read by the PM and he agreed with your analysis, the talking team have been reshuffled, the new lead negotiator commands a certain respect from creditors - his name is Euclid Tsakalotos.
I should have posted the reasoning for my exit plan - posted this back in mid April, there comes a time to take profits.
Think buying AUD against USD or JPY could be a decent trade for the day. I’ll see how things run from London open.
Hey guys.
We have the end of month play upon us. And this is what I think.
[B]CAD[/B]
They have/are on top this month. They are very strong. And I think for many reasons. First of all they are the substitute for the dropping USD. Oil price has been climbing. They have had some really good fundamental economic data come out lately (this month).
I’ve been seeing nothing but a pile on lately with them.
So, now, we have the end of the month. Thursday is technically the last day. So, I think that there will be some profit taking coming soon. Yesterday they were the second top currency, after the AUD. It was a Comm day. So, I just now (hour or two after London open) took a look at what has been happening. And it looks like maybe it might be time for the profit taking and CAD sell off. And the Oil price has dropped some also.
I’ve been waiting for this. Even though it’s not in my plan to go against the trend, I think this is a good opportunity. Will be very conservative about it.
What do you guys think?
Agree or not.
Mike
Hi Mike,
unfortunately I do not know what is the Comm and Major situation as you do not post it anymore
Besides that, I agree but for another reason: my analysis say oil will drop and if that is the case CAD should drop with it.
Tell us how your trade went,
FE
Well, I’m in.
Since the NZD is the only currency I have that the CAD is not trending high against, I will go north with the NZD on them. Take a look. This is the daily time frame.
That will be for this week only.
Mike
I had to comment on that because we finally agree on something! this calls for a celebration 
I see blockbuster USDCAD long and NZDUSD short. It is not quite there yet but we could be as close as a week or two away!
Check it out!
and
Let’s first say that fundamentally, USD is stronger than both NZD and CAD. When we translate this to a chart, it means we expect NZDUSD to reach its lowest low or make a new one. As for CAD we expect to reach that high or make a new high. We cannot locate where exactly that new high/low will end using fundamentalls alone. But at least fundamentals give us direction.
Now in those two charts the first thing I want you to see is that yellow line has crossed below the blue line (NZDUSD) or in the case of USDCAD above the blue line. Technicals and fundamentals are lined up.
You see the pink trendlines on the chart and RSI of both pairs. These showed us that we are on the verge of a correction, and surely enough we are now on that phase of correction.
We should not let the media, center banks or anyone else fool us. The US is only in a point of correction and not reversal. Fundamentally, US will raise rates first so money will flow there more and Dollars will rise.
If you applied these settings to GBPUSD, EURUSD and others, you will see a similar patter developing.
What sets NZD and CAD apart is that their stochastic is an extreme area, meaning the correction is nearing its end and the trend is preparing to resume. However we are not just there yet. In USDCAD the horizontal line is the area where I expect to see the trend continuation upwards. This is the current value of the 50 weekly EMA. Now if price ignores that line and continues downwards, we wait until price touches the black lines before thinking about buying. But I’m fairly confident of this area to be honest.
The signal on NZDUSD is even stronger however. The blue box area is where I expect we see a start of the trend continuation in favor of the dollar.
The month of April has not been good for me, and that is normal because I’m one of the Dollar bulls. But we are getting really close now, and its about pulling the trigger at the right time for me.
I hope the charts and ideas are clear.
Well, I still like the trade but I should have stick to my plan. It’s good to be humbled once in a while
Hi Philip,
thanks for the great analysis with the many charts! Great stuff. Can you share also your thoughts about Crude?
FE
Wheat maybe finally finding support at around 4.71 on daily.
