That was one month ago, this evening the offer is 85.50 - and so on it goes.
(the May effect has now evaporated)
Targets now being reassessed, next one is 87.00 (88.00 -88.50 interbank), longer term, perhaps around 6 - 9 months is parity - slightly more vague but def in the planning of some commercials.
Hi Peter,
yes, in the beginning of the year nobody was expecting these levels, I guess this shows perfectly that we have to be flexible as anything can happen in the markets. On the long-term chart we can see that a strong resistance line was broken, we will see how high the pair goes.
You were writing about parity, on my charts that level has never been reached. That would be a new high! Would be very interesting to observe.
Take care,
FE
From a COT perspective there is not much to report. There was a EUR long signal a couple of weeks back.
Interesting is however that I listened a longer Larry Williams interview lately and he mentioned a couple of times the big gold selloff. Well, compared to the levels where gold was when the interview was taken it will be hard to imagine how gold could reach in the medium term those lows. I will be watching out for gold and observe how it all develops. Although Larry was tricky, he set a very low target for gold, but he did not say where to sell 
Yeah FE,
The exchange providers give a kind of sense of where the rate is headed.
On Tue morning past they were offering 86.00 with mt4 at 87.00 - fairly average.
Wed, Aug 17th, there was a slight knock back, perhaps in anticipation of retail numbers coming up -mt4 86.50
Banks offering 85.50
Then Thurs the big one, the numbers were a ‘surprise’ and price fell 75 pips.
What did the exchange banks do? - nothing, they held at 85.50 - 200sma hr1 is their yardstick, and 100sma the target, both held so it is back to 86.00 on Friday and today.
Thinking ahead I should perhaps note that the interbank rate, or MT4 rate is back to 86.50, the providers are offering 86.00 - thus they either are feeling generous or they expect the interbank rate to rise Monday/Tuesday
I’ll come back to the thread as my broker made some commodities available 
Hi BB and Peter,
I found something interesting in the COT Report that I wanted to share. I checked the GBP Net Positions for the last 20 years and we are at extreme readings. It is vs. the USD and I do not say we should buy right now, but there are some better GBP long term setups vs weaker pairs.
Peter, how do you see this from a fundamental perspective?
Have a nice Sunday guys,
FE
GBP is in a kind of lull, there have been more constructive comments of late from the UK govt on brexit although this morning the pm acknowledges difficulties up ahead.
These difficulties and how they play out will determine the pound direction, instinct tells me more pound selling to come.
I’ll post my analysis during the weekend. I have to setup my database again because I had to reinstall Windows on my computer.
Hi BB,
How is your database work? Did you set it up again? Just to give you a bit heads up: in the current slow moving market conditions you did not miss any long-term opportunitites - at least according to me - as there were no signals.
I am waiting to see what you come up with.
FE
Hi guys,
I checked the COT report, didn´t find too many interesting markets this week. The ones that got my attentions were sugar and orange juice. How interesting is that most commodities are struggling and are in a clear downtrend and these two are booming and heading up on the longer term charts.
Also lately there is some divergence between crude oil and natural gas as the second did not turn down lately but held to its gains.
FE
Hi everyone,
As far as I see not many of you follow these days the COT report or just do not want to share the findings. I checked out many of the instruments again, well it is moving for most of them sideways, not even touching the extreme levels of the COT index.
One possible explanation for that could be that based on the “1 minute commodity trader strategy” I believe we see many trend changes and there are quite some commodities where we have to start looking for buy signals instead of the sell.
I wish everyone a great remaining part of the weekend,
FE
Hi FE,
I’d say that the reason for the ‘quiet’ on COT and the likelihood of trend change is reflected in the CRB.
On the EOD chart there are higher lows and lower highs, a triangle or wedge that the technicians refer to.
I suppose this is best reflected in oil intra-day where it seems that on one day the bulls are in command and then suddenly the opposite.
In the midst of these conflicting signals the commercials are trying to hedge their risk, some risking that price will continue in a tight range, others staying on the side.
Best example is perhaps the airline industry - have they been hedging on increased fuel costs up the line or stepping back - not an easy call.
Edit: since never shy of giving my opinion I’d say that the CRB will rise beyond June 16, but may take into Feb 2017 to do so
Just a wee mention on Eur/Gbp - good chance of a further break north this week, maybe even new lows on cable as well.
The pound is likely to see more selling as the rhetoric on Brexit will come to the fore starting tomorrow - the new term is “hard exit”.
Hi Peter,
yes, some time ago you mentioned that on GBP pairs maybe we will see a new base forming for many pairs. It is however hard to see how long the fall might go and when that new base starts to form. I wish you a great week,
FE
Hi FE,
Perhaps the Eur/Gbp base has now formed, FX providers are offering 86.50 this morning - I would not be surprised to see parity in the months up ahead.
The BOE laid out their concerns last week, it’s not all Brexit, I posted a link over on Clint’s BIS thread.
And so it continues - the ‘hard exit’ term became the phrase for the ruling party at their conference this week, that term caused another push down on GBP, now we have the tapering talk on Euro.
The ‘excuses’ to sell GBP are becoming even more lose, if sentiment was neutral then the recent UK numbers would have caused GBP buying, but when sentiment is this negative then it would take more than numbers to change things.
Problem is that sentiment is currently being dictated by politicians - so more selling to come.
OH - btw the weekly is now needed on Eur/Gbp - another line broken this morning, likely the providers will be offering 87.50 at 9.00am
The UK PM said last night that she is unconcerned by a 31 year low on cable, so wonder will there be some more years added to that number this week, if so maybe then there might be some concern expressed, if not by ruling politicians then maybe the BOE.
CB talk could offer a respite.
Hi Peter,
I also follow that pair, I have in my what you wrote about it. It is really interesting how much weakness GBP accumulated, the fall just never really stopped. Wonder where will be the end of it. Would be great if you write when you think investors are stepping in and enter the game on the long side.
I wish you a great afternoon,
FE
Hi FE,
The ‘flash crash’ that happened on GBP during the Asia is a symptom of the market sentiment on GBP.
It appears that a few algos are loaded for sells, it going to take a massive shift to change that. Since June 23rd I have to admit that I have never given any thought to where price would reverse, only where it would pause.