This is a great start to the week. EURGBP short is 80 pips in profit, GBPJPY 15 (glad you took that FE, that makes 3 stolen trades :), EURND 8 pips profit, GBPCHF 20 pips in profit. I’m close to catching fire now 
Yeah, I went long at 4.00pm uk on Usd/Cad, will monitor that one, oil on it’s daily has printed some higher highs, but nothing noteworthy.
Haven’t entered but hope to go long Usd/Jpy soon.
The Aud, I agree re the bearish aspect, a quick look at the daily gold and it’s showing recent lower highs and lower lows.
But I’m looking from USD perspective, Aud/Cad I just don’t know.
Philip…
I’m glad your on the GBP ride up also.
This is the week for them. Especially if they come out with not so good news, and yet after some time passes you can tell that money wants them higher. And that’s what is transpiring now.
All we need now is other economies to falter with their news to make way for a higher GBP, later on this week.
Mike
Hi guys,
hmmm Philip, you pay our dinner tonight! Good that it goes the right direction. Yes, actually I made my 3rd steal during the morning cruise on my charts!
I closed my AUD trades, I just do not expect something good from the news. I will check it tomorrow if it was a good or bad idea to close them. Based on Mikes charts this is a Major week. Now I feel better that I even confirmed my own decision I closed the 4 trades with +231 pips. I lost with CAD and won with NZD, CHF and EUR.
Peter,
I checked the chart at 4pm UK. There is no huge movement. I thought in such low liquidity period if you enter the market we can see the effects
I continue now the series here, I write here down my own thoughts about my second COT book as I read it. I write down anyway always for myself what I think is important to look it back later, so I decided why not to post it here too? Important: I write down the own words of the author, in the right order as it comes in the book. However I will not structure the different thoughts and do not write down which pages they were. I just want to mention the sentences which I find important for myself. This is not the same value for you as reading the book (hopefully you will all read it when you have the time for it), however it is better than nothing. I also make my own summary in the end of each post.
A Unified Theory of COT Data - Part II
I once interviewed more than 50 pretty good traders to see what made them tick along with 50 of the all-time worst traders I have ever known. The amazing thing is that there wasn’t much difference in the basic belief systems. There were two major differences that I was finally able to pin down:
-
The first is that the big winning traders were quite funny, humorous, and I guess you could almost say carefree in how they approached winning and losing. You bet, they didn’t like losing, but they dealt with it. The losers professed to hate losing as well, but were far more uptight about it than the winners. They were less accepting of the losses. Winners rolled with the punches, while the losers were usually floored.
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An even bigger differencde between these polar gorups was seen in how they used stop-loss protection. To a man and woman, the large successful traders had an absolute form of risk control, while the margin meeters were seemingly without a notion of protection. Their stop losses were invariably triggered by pain; when they were under more pain than they could manage, then and only then did they pitch their positions. The winners had reversed that old athletic canard of “no pain, no gain” to "with pain, no gain. They avoided pain, while the losers did not. It is as simple as that.
Stop wasting your time looking for the fountain of youth or market perfection. It will do you far more good to study the commercials. Realize they are usually a little early, so look for a price trend change, and finally, use their action in relationship to trend.
A New Twist on the Commercials
Proxy index
→ this chapter looked to me quite a marketing issue. Williams showed how to use his own Proxy index on stocks where there is no COT Report. He made to index to try and show what the commercials are doing. He shows charts where the indicator works good. The trick is that he does not show and describe the way he calculates his index. If you are interested, you could actually find it on Larry Williams, Futures Trading, Futures Newsletters, Short Term Trading, Long Term Trading, Trading Education
He finishes the chapter with: “Now, thanks to the proxy index, we can have a sense of what the commercials would be doing and reporting, if we had reporting requirements in these markets.”
Summary: “A Unified Theory of COT Data” - Part II, has not much to do with COT Report I think. That whole chapter was about to show interesting studies and prove that trading is not a random activity. The part I copied here in my review was also certainly interesting but had nothing to do with the COT Report. The other chapter was only marketing for me, did not bring any value because at this moment I am not interested in trading stocks on a regular basis.
He he, are you watching USD/JPY, when you see a massive jump then I’m long
I’m glad you closed those AUDS, just spotted this little piece.
BBC News - China manufacturing activity misses forecasts in August
Hi guys!
Monday in the books.
NZD: +7 -0 0
GBP: +5 -1 1
EUR: +1 -1 5
CAD: +1 -2 4
AUD: +1 -2 4
USD: +1 -2 4
CHF: +1 -2 4
JPY: +0 -7 0
Comms took 'em. +5
Majors vs. Comms
NZD: +5 -0 0
GBP: +2 -1 0
EUR: +0 -1 2
CAD: +1 -1 3
AUD: +1 -1 3
USD: +0 -1 2
CHF: +0 -1 2
JPY : +0 -3 0
So we have NZD dominated today.
GBP was strongest Major. Only had a down day against NZD. Even against EUR.
A whole lot of evens today. Meaning many corrections ended the day.
JPY is weak.
EUR was down against NZD only and even against all others, (up against jpy).
So guys, what a day. I had fun on the sidelines today. Just been keeping an eye on GBP. Not doing so bad. At about break even. I got them running still. I’m in on USD/JPY also. Thanks to you guys!
Got to run.
Mike
…
Well done guys!
Good to hear you’re making those green pips! /Mike & Philip/
It was Peterma who said patience is a virtue. I’m putting that into practice this week. I’ve got 3 positions on NZDUSD short. I opened it last friday or thursday I think. And finally from this morning from asian session onwards the dollar has finally kick started its rally. So far looks good +50pips. But I’m keeping it long away from my TP. I’m not even moving SL to break even guys. I’m afraid it might got hit especially with USDCAD trade. I’ll wait patiently and TP at the end of the week.
One thing about splitting your lots is that for each position you get in a different price. The obvious. But the catch is that if there’s a bit of minor correction you get in at a better price than you did on your previous one. I’m liking this little trick so far.
USDCAD long limit order got hit. Only one position but I will be adding on to it more if minor retracement occurs.
Yesterday the volatility was very low. I’m glad that bank holiday in the States is finally over! Sorry Mike 
Thanks for posting the links FE monetary policy statements that are scheduled for this trading week. I’ll look at it over. Stay patient FE your limit orders will get hit very soon. I was reading through the thread yesterday and saw everyone doing great and I looked at my trades which were still at a loss and thought to myself, how much more do I have wait to see some green pips coming in. Well to my surprise the patience has paid off at least up until now, I woke up to see all my NZDUSD shorts have had some gains. I know its tough being patient especially in this business. But I know it will be worth it. Wise words Peterma !
Hi guys,
I have not read the news neither the thread yet.
Only wanted to say the trades are most likely doing good for everyone. It does not happen very often that I stay up in the morning, click through the charts and it looks as bright as today. This shows it does make sense to have the great conversations, analysis etc. If it goes good for me, it has to good for you as well since we all have similar trades.
I do not know how the RBA Statement was but looking at the charts I believe it was slightly bearish as I thought and it was definitely good to close the trades.
The USD/JPY boat and the USD/CHF left without FE. The pair was as 104.15 when I entered a 104.05 buy limit order and it was even lazy to make this little rertracement for me. Oh well, it does happen. Usually trades do no go right away our direction so I still prefer like this than always on market price to enter the trade. At least I know you guys in it. And 6 hours ago there was a large movement for the pair so I got to know that Peter entered it too.
CHF got stronger today, I guess it is because EUR is also stronger. In the long-run I do not worry about that one.
Have a great day.
PS: just an experience to share. Now it is important to remain calm, not entering thousands of further trades or increasing the lot sizes. Being greedy is not the right method to approach the market. We shouldn’t give it back what we have taken!
Good morning guys!
And what a GOOD morning it is!
Wow. I’m in the green. 3 of my 5 trades got closed over night, TP that is. GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY. For 152 pips. That is awesome when they reach up there, pretty high, grab the TP and then come back down.
So now I only have 2 remaining, GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD. I’m gonna monitor this until the news comes out. But, after this I’m done for the week. My account is really high now, % wise. In fact, I’m gonna take it easy for the rest of the month. Very very very particular trades if any as the month goes on.
Mike
Hi Mike,
I am happy for the wins! You deserved it!
hahahahahahaha, you are funny!!! “I am gonna take it easy for the rest of the month.” - you say it on the 2nd day of the month!!! You act like it was the last 2-3 days! “Very, very, very particular trades…” - Mike I use this post against you in the future! I will remind you on every Monday when you will enter 7-8 different setups after the weekend analysis :-)))
However it can pay off that you are done for the week. It is a lot better to keep your gains and not lose them fast. It seems like the weekend setups do work, so it is better to make all decisions on the weekend and maybe we should only monitor the trades during the week. No hectic.
One suggestion: I have no idea on your risk management, but I believe to think you trade too large. Yeah, I guess me too, still if 152 pips is a lot of % gain, then you do not give yourself enough room to lose trades.
Keep it easy and disciplined
Ok so here’s something that has been on my mind. What are we expecting from the Euro come the ECB? We clearly saw the reaction to the Euro last week when the CPI results were higher than expected (a spike up). We talked about how big upwards move follow when commercials buy a high percentage of a currency and commodity. I know FE dismisses Euro strength (and so far I agree with him), but is there a possibility that this is set-up for a Euro upward move?
Euro is showing strength today. I don’t really care that it is, I’m really intrigued about why. When you read different reports it says that the rise is because of Spanish Employment data and the expectation that the ECB will apply QE. But shouldn’t QE actually trigger selling of the Euro?
I know its a long shot but you can never be too careful trading, is it possible that Thursday will be long Euro no matter what the news is? Looking at the media can justify the rise no matter what the news is.
- The entire world is short Euro (except commercials).
- If ECB does apply QE, Euro rises as now there is more confidence in the Euro economy. (The spikes up on QE and higher CPI are there for all to see)
- If ECB does not apply QE, Euro price goes up as investors do not feel ECB is doing enough to tackle the deflation threat (similar to how AUD goes up, according to the media, when investors are not feeling RBA are doing enough to talk AUD down.)
- ECB does apply QE, but investors do not feel the measures taken apply as QE, and the Euro surge up.
Is it possible that the Euro is about to explode in everyone’s face? Is that a legitimate fear? what do you guys think?
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
Hey guys,…FE.
Well thank God it was good news for GBP (construction). I cashed out of my last 2 remaining trades. Took a loss on CHF (-27 pips), but CAD (+12).
My bottom line is +122.6 pips…being +10.8% .
FE, I hear you! No…YOUR FUNNY!
Look, I’ve changed things. I don’t know if this is the place to expound on my trading plan, (as opposed to my trading strategy). But I will divulge if you want.
Let’s just say I have goals. Monthly goals. And whatever it takes, like not trading anymore, then so be it.
I’m half way there. So therefore I can be very very choosy for the rest of the month.
What I have a conviction about lately is the GBP. They are slowly coming back. On my estimations they are not trending ++ (long term, short term) against anybody now. And I think that will change. Basically they have much room to climb. USD is now trending ++ against 5 and RR against 2 (CAD, AUD). The AUD is the same thing, trending ++ against 5 and RR against 2 (CAD, USD).
But what I keep thinking is how the GBP is the most probable Major to raise interest rates first. If that sentiment will stay the same for the entire year, then it only makes sense they will eventually come up to be trending ++ on all sometime before then end of the year. So, I’m watching them, that’s all.
Just some of my thoughts.
(I guess it’s gonna be a long month)
(yay!)
“Remember Mike, very very choosy”.
Mike
Wow Mike!
I agree with FE if 152 pips is a lot in % gain. You must trade bigger lots than I do Mike.
I’ve just closed my NZDUSD short trades +103pips /record high for me finally at last all that hard work that we’ve been putting through has paid off :D/
Now I’ve got my two USDCAD long positions open so far so good.
Good to see everyone doing great!
Hey guys.
How about that USD?
1hr chart from last week to present.
Notice that big drop last week seem to propel them higher.
Reminds me of what my mother used to tell me when I was young. “Sometimes you must hit bottom before you can start climbing”.
I do see that a lot in the charts. When it goes down much, it means it is gonna go up much.
Mike
Rookie!
Nice man!
Looks like you got a lot of room to go there with CAD.
Daily chart shown here.
I’m rooting for ya!
Mike
Yeah Mike!
I’m going to TP @ 100 pips and if there’s more room for an upside I’ll get in again at a pullback.
You had a good point with GBP. I haven’t traded GBP for a while so I’m really not quite sure how they’re doing chart wise. But I will keep GBP in my radar. I have a conviction that remaining weeks will be majors. Commdolls had their day on monday.
Hi Philip,
I am just like a trader like yourself, I do not see the future so I can be wrong with every setup I write. I have though (as you wrote) a very bearish EUR sentiment. That is right. At the moment I also think there is just no reason to change the sentiment. I do not think the whole world is bearish on EUR. Look at our analysis on the weekend. They are not at an extreme level at all. This would mean there is still many pips to go down. Also a 700-800 pip down is not unusual in a bearish market. So I think it is ok.
The Fundamentals are not confirming that there should be a trend change. Worse and worse news are coming, nothing to be optimistic about. If there is not QE, I agree, there would be EUR strength. But how long? I mean it would not change the world and the European economy would still struggle. That would be only a retracement IMO.
The situation was different in May when EUR turned. EUR rallied even when the economy was not doing good at all. No surprise that the trend had to change. With GBP the situation was the samu. Was pretty much overvalued and everyone was bullish so there had to be a correction. By GBP it is IMO not so clear if it was a retracement (a bigger correction) or reversal. By EUR it is a clear reversal and I do not see why it should be oversold in the long run. There has to be some positive change to be bullish on it. I just do not see this coming.
Again, it is only how I see it, it should not keep you away going bullish on it. I am not better than anyone else and can always be wrong. Until the fundamentals do not change, I will only look for short trades.
Good luck, either way you go!
Thanks for the reply FE. As I said in my earlier post I am still bearish on Euro like yourself. My point of the question was rather if we should steer clear of Euro on Thursday, or if it was a risk worth taking?