COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

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773

For me, I dislike trading through resistance/support on a daily chart.

I have had a line on 3150, was a little bounce there and now is under that, so I may keep an eye on 3145ish for going down, then if we get back to 3110 where price is now and where the next line is then I would take a deep breath and blow, aiming for 3010.

There again it may just head on without me, then I would look to sell on a pull up to the 3110.

I couldn’t buy Euro at present with any degree of confidence, I just figure that the risks are higher that side.

774

Hi Philip,

I agree with what Peter wrote. The edge is not on the EUR side. Especially vs. USD. If you want to play EUR long, choose a weaker candidate. NZD, CHF or CAD might work out better for a short-term trade. On the EUR side there is one main argument: looking the USD charts at this very moment, EUR is the only one currency that can hold vs. USD. I respect that. Not that it means something for the future but now they are doing good. Being that said, my two NZD/USD trades hit the profit target at 0.8310. It makes me a bit angry and I moved all other TP levels. I thought more of a medium term trade here and I am out of the move now. It is always good to win but making the right analysis and missing a part of the move then is not nice. I will not re-enter though. No hectic. I did not thinkg that NZD/USD will break through the 0.8300 level so easy.

Keep up the good trades guys

PS: our GBP is not doing so good. Pip Diddy thinks it is because the Scotland’s Indepence vote.
London Session Recap - Sept. 2, 2014 | Forex Blog: PipnocularsLondon Session Recap - Sept. 2, 2014 - BabyPips.com

EDIT: I forgot the two NZD/USD “hidden” open positions. All good :slight_smile:

775

Thanks for that and for the link. I closed my GBP trades this before Euro open. I’m still bullish though.

776

Eur/Gbp is the indicator that tells that it was GBP selling, and yes it’s the first time the Scottish referendum has raised it’s head, there was an increase in a yes opinion poll.

The effect of Eur/Gbp buying (Gbp selling) has stalled the fall in Euro/USD - it refused go past that line at 3110

If Eur/Gbp holds onto today’s gains then Eur/Usd may well refuse to go lower.

Moral of the story - if going short Eur/Usd, then I will check Eur/Gbp first.

777

Hi guys!

Monday://////////////Tuesday:
NZD: +7 +0 0 //// USD: +5 -0 2
GBP: +5 -1 1 /// EUR: +5 -0 2
EUR: +1 -1 5 //// CHF: +5 -0 2
CAD: +1 -2 4 //// CAD: +3 -3 1
AUD: +1 -2 4 //// AUD: +3 -3 1
USD: +1 -2 4 ///// JPY : +2 -5 0
CHF: +1 -2 4 //// GBP: +1 -6 0
JPY: +0 -7 0 ///// NZD: +0 -7 0

Majors took it +7.

Majors vs. Comms (tues.)

USD: +3 -0 0
EUR: +3 -0 0
CHF: +3 -0 0
CAD: +2 -3 0
AUD: +2 -3 0
JPY : +1 -2 0
GBP: +1 -2 0
NZD: +0 -5 0

I wanted to keep you guys up on how the week is unraveling. Hope you can easily compare them.
Interesting how NZD goes from on top to last the very next day.
GBP also similar.

Notes: (today)
USD, EUR, CHF, all tied for the day. Even against each other.

So we have it going back and forth for the first 2 days. Comms +5 (monday)…Majors +7 (tuesday)

I hope you guys are keeping your profits. I sure am. I’m not in the market. Waiting for some good opportunities.

Rookie, I’m so glad you got some!!

Ok guys.
See you soon.

Mike

778

Thanks Mike. I’ve got it. At last.

I’m up 2% so far this week. USDCAD three long positions went great closed them at 100pips altogether.

Here’s what I’m looking at now guys have a look /FE I know you were in with EURAUD short not sure if thats still going I read few days earlier that you closed your AUD longs, well if you have here’s an another opportunity to go short on EURAUD/

USD/JPY Update & EUR/AUD Short Forex Idea | Forex Blog: Pick of the DayUSD/JPY Update & EUR/AUD Short Forex Idea - BabyPips.com

I’m also looking at EURUSD to go short on a nice pullback. I think there’s some happening right now on EURUSD 4h chart. But before I go in with them I’ll look at EURGBP to go down. Again [B]Peterma[/B] we can’t thank you enough for throwing in those clues just at the right time.

Let me know what you think of these ideas guys if you’re looking at them as well. I’m going to wait on ECB monetary policy statement and rate decision. I’ll probably take it as a future direction/bias for EUR before I go short with them.

779

I like the EURAUD short from the levels he said. I was hoping to see EUR go a bit more higher in the coming days so we can sell it. But I wouldn’t sell now.

Lonkg USANOK (Norwegian Krone) anyone?

780

Thanks for your quick reply Philip! I do agree with you on EURUSD. I think I’m going to wait a bit. As for EURAUD I might go in short soon prior ECB statement and rate decision.

I’m not sure if anyone of you have been following this I got out of my NZDUSD trades early so I haven’t been. This morning I looked at my charts NZDUSD daily and 4H and to find out the pair headed down to 0.8300 / now 0.82…/

Well as it turns out there was an auction on 2nd of Sep /its usually held twice a month as we know/ but just a reminder next auction will be on 16th of Sep. On last tuesdays auction the price fell by some (6.0%) from previous event with average winning price at 2,787$ /as I vaguely recall the previous average winning price was at around 3,000$/

A further confirmation to short NZD. Nevertheless there must be some good news coming for NZD hopefully! so that we can ride down NZD again on a nice pullback.

Update: I just went back few pages and read FEs view on whether or not we should long EUR now. And I must say you’ve precisely explained as to why we shouldn’t. Even if they were to implement another QE , rise to an upside would only be temporary /a retracement/ I agree with you on that note FE. Its just not enough for EUR to change its course from downward to the upside as there’s many facets to weakening of EUR. Bulls are wary of going long on EUR except for the commercials of course they’ve got deep pockets they can’t just be buying crazy amounts of EUR at one time, they need to split.

Understandable much like what Peterma said, I’m bearish on EUR. I don’t see any solid reason why we should buy EUR now. On top of that we’ve got Ukraine/Russia conflict escalating , US is proposing further sanction against Russia. All no good for eurozone in the long term. Lets say they implement an another QE, eurozone is huge there’s many countries. Given that I highly doubt that we will see any rise in key economic measures anytime soon even after another QE. I believe ECB has already had something similar implemented but we’ve yet to see its result. So another QE may not solve everything in an instant as its complex - many countries.

Now there’s another scenario that we should consider, what if they cut their rates ? Initially there’ll be negative reaction to that news I’m not sure how long. But if that rate cut somehow enables eurozone to get back on track /rise in key indicators after rate cut/ we might consider buying EUR. But then again result would not be that instant. So whatever the case until I improvement in eurozone /CPI GDP employment data back with or above forecast/ or market sentiment I will be bearish.

781

UK services PMI out today - viewed as an important sentiment indicator.

An insight here as to what way it could go, thing to remember is that Markit asked the managers about their future outlook.

A problem for GBP at present will be the uncertainty re the Scottish vote.

CBI: Growth slows in service sector but firms remain upbeat

782

Hi guys,

I did get to my computer some minutes ago and did not understand the strengthening of my exotic currencies and at the same time USD weakness across the board. My hope was realized:

Ukraine says Putin, Poroshenko agree on ‘permanent ceasefire’ in Donbass region | Reuters

This means USD weakness for a unknown time.

I talk to you later, now I want to maybe readjust some trades.

FE

783

Positive news, remember - always darkest before the dawn.

See some positive news on GBP also.

784

Hi Peter,

yes, I remember. Actually I remember anything you want just push the exotic currencies further down!

I also entered EUR/USD at 3150, maybe it was even too early. I am considering to close the GBP/USD short, as GBP fell extreme the last days. I have to make up my mind soon on this one.

I will post later my trade updates. And you? Do you share your trade ideas with us?

Have a nice day

785

I would love to hear Peter has stuck with USD/JPY.

TELL US YOU DID!

:slight_smile:

786

Hi guys,

I share with you my trades and also how I see the markets. I have to say we do see so many forces playing an important role like not so often in my opinion. It gives the possibility to make some good pips fast but has also the same risk. I do not change in any currency my long-term bias but we have to have open eyes because there are certainly some possibilities out there to get in in good prices.

My trades:

[B]AUD trades[/B]: closed out with nice profit, but too early. Looking at the GDP report, the AUD is gaining again today, I would have not expect that one.

[B]USD trades[/B]: with NZD and GBP I closed them with nice profits, AUD got crashed since the GDP report + risk off sentiment, entered EUR short time ago (maybe too early, we will see), still have two NZD open positions showing small profit, CAD is for sure making profits but just like AUD, it also gave a punch for USD in the last hours.

[B]GBP trades[/B]: JPY is ok, CHF is very bad, I discuss this issue later on.

[B]Exotic currencies[/B]: finally some movement to the desired direction, in the last couple of hours there is some positive action like with Comms, we will see how far this risk on sentiment continues

I have to say there were some nice gains, I am happy with the results. I am also positive on the development of the trades, I do think we have the right bias. GBP makes me worry, I will discuss it. Besides that I closed the AUD trades too early, but I do think that my reasoning was ok on closing them, so I rather took nice gains and did not lose those pips.

So why do I find the market more challenging than usually?

  1. [B]Ukraine/Russia cease fire[/B]. Finally! Now this is good for the exotic currencies and for Comms. USD weakens, hard to say how much. We have to really watch out as we get the possibility to jump in on some great retracments!
  2. [B]GBP[/B]: Scottish Independence: now as you might now I have visual stop losses but this time I feel myself a bit blind, it would be great to hear some from [B]Peter[/B] about this issue. I have to admit I am a bit uncertain. This is something I do not like. I like to have confidence and believe to know where the market is heading. The whole Scottish Independence issue is new for me, I do not see how it could affect GBP on the long-term. It least I do not see how large that affect can be. I do not know if it can change the whole direction of GBP or we see some correction or just a retracement. It is a really tough situation for me.
  3. [B]NZD[/B]: another punch from dairy prices (-6.0%), but this might be solved if there is peace in Ukraine. NZD is also getting strength from tensions coming down.
  4. [B]SNB[/B]: defending the peg and the currency
  5. [B]EUR[/B]: gaining on peace in Ukraine but not on better economy
  6. [B]Statements[/B]: just to mix everything there are the big reports and statements this week.

Now as you see there is a hell of a lot of action going on. It is especially difficult in currencies like NZD where we do see significant good and bad news at the same time. I think besides the GBP, I see the stories in the currencies, there I need some help.

Peter, I think we are putting you slowly on the wrong side :slight_smile: You traded some weeks ago only one pair and now you are on the roller-coaster with us on all these setups:-) We got ya! Took some time, but still!

Guys, please do not forget that today I am here and do my work but until Sunday night I will be on the forum for a limited time only. I try to post my COT findings and trade setups on Saturday night though. Our team has a great importance no matter what. Still, I cannot promise it 100%.

Good luck guys, Mike might be the big winner of the week to stay aside with this many questions and puzzles we have to put together.

EDIT: guys, I do not find it in English so you have to rely on my source :slight_smile: Putin is playing with the world and with the markets. Moscow just announced they can not make a cease fire since they are not involved in the conflict…

787

Is it just me or for the last few weeks /or days for me/ the volatility is back on with most pairs.

I’m just warming up hopefully the volatility will stay around this level until the end of the year. :57:

788

Hey guys…

Just got this on my phone /I was subscried to this/

Breaking news: Kremlin- Putin didn’t agree on Ukraine cease-fire but did discuss how to resolve conflict, RIA says

I see EURUSD in a downward move back again. There isn’t much on this for now. Thats all it said. Well Ukraine seems to have said it first cease fire agreement. But from Kremlin Putin sure didn’t agree what Ukraine /US, EU zone had proposed/.

789

Hi guys (mostly rookie and Philip),

I read the posts and would like to react mostly on the mentioned setups:

[B]EUR/USD[/B]: I just called Draghi. He told me we can’t expect too positive news in his statement. He said though that we can still have a chance to play EUR long in the short-term. He mentioned that EUR did not only dropped because of weak economic data but because of tensions in Ukraine. He also does not know when the situation gets better but when it will then we can expect a short-term strength for EUR. That is all I could discuss with him, he had a meeting :slight_smile:

[B]EUR/AUD[/B]: just like Philip, I also like the forecast, read the article myself. And just like Philip, I also do not want to buy at current levels. If EUR climbs on positive news from Ukraine then I would be more happy to jump in.

[B]USD/NOK[/B]: well, Philip as you know I like to trade exotic currency pairs. I never traded though this one. I checked the charts, what is interesting, this currency pair has not so much correlation to any of the exotic pairs I do trade. The carry trade I do not know either, with exotic pairs that is always a main argument to trade, but you did not mention how long you want to hold it. I am quite sure thought, if the situation in Ukraine gets better that would mean more NOK strength. Keep me updated how you decide and how your trade was.

790

Hehe FE ! You’re one funny guy!

We can use some humour here and there. Can’t be all serious all the time.

I hope your call went well with Draghi ;p. Well if he says so Draghi himself I shall stay bearish on EUR please extend my appreciation to him the next time you’re on the phone with him.

I’m glad you posted your earlier post about the uncertainty in market.

791

Nope. exited after 100 pips, will probably enter long again Thu/Fri.

Scalp on with gbp (long), nothing much, taking it easy.

792

FE, you summed it up in one word on the Scottish vote - uncertain.

The markets run very fast from that word, I’ll enter GBP properly when that is out of the way - depending obviously on the outcome.