Blue Point Trading - September 2014 US Jobs Report, How good is it?


September 2014 US Jobs Report, How good is it? Well the jury is in, September 2014 turned in strong jobs numbers as payrolls were up 248K, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate ticked down to a six-year low of 5.9%. August’s initially disappointing payroll count of 142,000 was revised up to 180K, and the average work-week ticked up to 34.6 hours, a post-recession high and a clear sign of an improving labor market. The market cheered the results, but is the report that good?

When drilling down into the BLS jobs report, we see a few problem spots. Average hourly earnings for all employees, at $24.53, changed little in September (-1 cent). One would think that if employment was so plentiful, labor would have some pricing power. Clearly they do not, though the average workweek for all employees edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. This seems to indicate that once again most of the added jobs were of the lower wage type.

The real kicker is that the labor force participation rate fell once again to a new post crisis low of 62.7% from 62.8%. Take a look at this table from the BLS. Today there are over 2 million MORE folks not working, as compared to the supposedly good job numbers of 2013. This is an amazing number. Some have postulated that these are baby boomers retiring, though when reading the foot notes from the BLS, it would not seem to imply that this is the case.

When looking at the much pooh poohed employment numbers from shadowstats, it still shows unemployment, of which takes into account a lot of these factors, at well over 22% (see thumbnail chart). One may dispute the shadowstat unemployment accounting methodology, and say it is overstating the real unemployment rate. But if the formula has held constant over the years, it is showing that in fact employment structure has changed dramatically, when comparing it to the BLS numbers. This structural change does have a material negative macro impact on the economy. Meaning, employment is still difficult and if you do find a job, it will be of a lesser position and a lower wage, compared to the pre-2008 crisis conditions.

I remind you that we are coming close to ending a 7-year business cycle, and employment is always a lagging economic indicator. So if you are a jobseeker, this is as good as it gets. Though the job report is reasonably good, it falls far short of where it should be, relative to other recovery periods at this time in a business cycle. If we are rounding the top, employment is starting from a lower base and could spell trouble for the future.

At the end of the day it does not matter what you or I think about the jobs report, it is what the Fed thinks. Is it good enough to end QE and begin to raise interest rates as planned? The answer to this is, that the Fed most likely will end QE in October and then wait to see if the gains hold, and the other job indicators can really start to show improvement.

Specifically, labor participation rates and wage growth. If these numbers hold flat or even go down, the Fed will hold off raising rates. Bond rates seem to agree with this assessment, as the Bond market’s reaction to the jobs report was largely flat. The Dollar rose sharply in anticipation of a robust US economy and these potential rising rates. But there is some mis-pricing going on here. Either Bond rates are going up significantly or this Dollar rally will reverse soon. I suspect the later to be closer to the reality.

Blue Point Trading, William Thompson

I think this analysis is quite spot on, the headline number does not tell the deeper story in this instance, as evidenced by the non reaction in bonds.
The question is, how will the Fed react this time around upon “discovering” that QE has failed yet again…do you think that recessionary data will force Yellen to ramp up a new dose of bigger QE? or will we actually see a fundamental economic restructuring this time?

Well the street thinking is a rate hike in Q1-2 2015. They may do one small symbolic rate hike. But IMO the structure of the economy is what causes our current economic issues and the next major Fed move in mid 2015 could be a return to QE. A fundamental economic restructuring will only happen under a severe crisis. I think this is at best several years away, perhaps after 2016 elections. We currently are rounding the top and this will take time. Of course, an unrelated black swan event can always accelerate the process.

Thank you, although discouraging, it does make a lot of sense :slight_smile:
So in your estimate, the initial “crisis” (in mid 2015) will be recessionary, which will induce another round of QE from the Fed. If so, will the Dollar still relatively hold up long enough to see rates hiked eventually (2016 say), or do you expect rampant inflation and soaring yields as a result of QE4?

Ultimately I believe QE is deflationary, as it is wealth redistribution to the upper class, via leverage. This means people on the bottom, who are increasing in numbers, have less money and pricing power of companies will be poor - hence deflationary effects. This is dollar positive. But the low interest rates environment keep the dollar in check. So flat with some volatility, depending what other central banks do. 2015 maybe start a recession but not a crash (unless a black swan occurs). So I am in the deflationary low rates for as far as we can see camp. Zombie economies can last a very long time, just ask the Japanese.

But Americans are bit more friskier than the Japanese. So the people might rise up and do something intelligent or dumb. This could cause a crash, but we shall see. Populations have a high tolerance level for pain induced by their politicians.

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