So now that the Fed decided to keep interest rates on hold while still suggesting that a liftoff is possible before the end of the year, where do you think the dollar will be headed next? Was the selloff just a knee-jerk reaction and will it offer opportunities to buy USD at better levels?
I’d say most retail is shorting USD, but the key question is what will larger money think.
I’ll keep an eye on the S&P and more specifically the volumes associated with any moves, I’m thinking possibly some risk-on money, lets see in the days and week ahead.
They’re not the only speculative entity shorting dollars over the past few weeks.
When the tide turns you’ll see it turning, until then why not simply play the obvious card & make money last week/today/this week/next week shorting it.
And this past two weeks, the Chinese nailed the speculation on a hike back then.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! I’m keeping close tabs on the equity indices as well, plus we’ve got some FOMC speeches lined up this week that could still push markets around.
I’ve been following the USD and Euro, and many annalists have been saying the dollar is the strongest and will be bullish until the next FOMC, but I haven’t seen it, not yet anyway. I know if I had been bullish on the GBP and Euro the last 2 months I could have made a killing. Good learning experience since trends have been slow to materialize and alternative analysis has been the norm, for me anyway!
The EUR/USD has been called for a long time now a “pair of two weak currencies” and I tend to agree with that assessment. Question is which one is weaker. And it doesn’t always depend on the central banks and how they see the respective economy.
The US do seem to be slightly stronger as an overall economy, meaning they would start to export more and cover their own needs better. This would make the dollar more valuable and press the euro downwards to parity or below and this is my interpretation (albeit simplified).