GBP/USD retracement or trend reversal?

[kagein]

The UK retail m/m sales were up today 0.5% on the 0.3% consensus forecast. Whether the spike in the GBP is a trend reversal or a short term retracement i'm not sure yet. Ill be looking to see whether the pair hits resistance around the 1.9650-19660 price range(78.6% fib level). We seem to be stuck in this price channel on the daily chart, it could rally all the way to 1.9730. Interested to hear other opinions.

[Revsly]

I'm watching this pair closely too. I noticed that resistance level also, if it breaks and holds it may be the start of a new trend. Seems like there are only buyers right now, I'm going to wait and see what happens, and if it cools off. What do you think?

[topchess]

This is my imagination of price action in cable for the short term:

Let us be certain that its strongly bearish (medium term)
But expect from here an eventual break to 2.0 levels where 50% fib reside, and a bearish bias from that level.

Longs are in favour ofcourse, but on dips..rather than breakouts. it bottomed near term at 1.93/4

[Jocelyn]

The support/resistance zones on this pair are very visible & actionable from both the long range & short range stratagy play.

As long as you got your markers set out correctly, it's simply a case of waiting for your preferred triggers to come into focus & get aboard.

This current level playing out here (9950-60) is the real fulcrum. This zone will dictate whether the Pound Bulls have a backbone or not. From here you got clear upside & downside barriers to play with.

But the risk has already been borne farther back as the demand kicked off @ 1.9400. All the Bulls gotta do now is peel off if this hurdle up here fails to give way.

Bulls will compound the break of 950 to 2,0100 & check their bearings to nest line @ 2.0225.

Any fall-out from here takes the activity back to interim supports @ 9775-9710 where bids will now lie.

Graphs: 240min & 2x15min.

[VulcanClassic]

I'm thinking of waiting for reversal confirmation from 1.9950 then go short to 1.9775 area.

With all the pressure on USD, you think it could possibly go back to 1.9400?

Not sure if it could do slight retrace then rally again. What do you think?

Jeff

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by VulcanClassic

With all the pressure on USD, you think it could possibly go back to 1.9400?

Not sure if it could do slight retrace then rally again. What do you think?

Anything's possible, which is why it's prudent to always have an each-way plan on the table.

Markets are still very jittery on the back of recent credit-banking woes & large houses/players are using any spike up in prices to book profits earlier on momentum traffic.

If you're long, then like I said; the risk is being filtered & borne by those seeking to short from current levels.

If you're flat this pair looking for a value punt, then these near-term s&r zones are the area's you ought to be striking off. Hesitancy will really start to ramp up & expose your risk.

1st line red light on the way back off 950 resides @ 9840-50 (intraday) ahead of harder supports @ 775.

Buying dips remains the value play until 775 closes on a lower high.

[VulcanClassic]

Sounds good,

Went short at 1.9917 an hour ago, nice to see it dropped. Will watch the 9850 zone.

[kagein]

Are we heading toward 1.9950 and a possible move upwards or will price successfully break 1.9800 and find support around 1.9650?

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by Jocelyn

If you're flat this pair looking for a value punt, then these near-term s&r zones are the area's you ought to be striking off.

1st line red light on the way back off 950 resides @ 9840-50 (intraday) ahead of harder supports @ 775.

Buying dips remains the value play until 775 closes on a lower high.

Just got an e-mail prompt back into this thread, but it looks like the mods have binned today's post due to spam (good job fella’s – keep it clean).

Those playing off the 9775, as both a ‘long’ base & ‘short’ target, have made a good living since this conversation was last discussed in late Feb.

Couldn’t get a much harder support marker than this huh?

Here we are yet again today focusing the level as an optional pitch from recent shorts into early London trade.

Long live support/resistance, yaaaay

[4xStar]

Is that a giant head & shoulders on the one hour? And check out the 15' another h&s .. somethin's about to give with this pair??