I’m posting this here because I KNOW who ‘patrols’ this thread and I’m GUARANTEED an answer (I hope)!!!
I’ve just had an interesting discussion with someone and found that I did not have the answer to a question being asked:
We were discussing the fact that the USD/ZAR is going down i.e. the SA Rand is strengthening against the USD BUT Gold is going down as well so the ZAR SHOULD be weakening against the USD NOT strengthening. Be that as it may I’m just assuming that traders were taking profits (especially those trading ‘naked’ i.e. candlesticks only) i.e. selling USD/ZAR and this has caused the drop.
NOW the question is this:
Assuming that there has to be buyer and a seller I can understand that at the moment those who are taking profit are selling and someone is buying and I can understand this ‘logic’ i.e. nothing has fundamentally changed here in South Africa i.e. interest rates on hold and Gold going down so the ‘logic’ would be that this is only a temporary pullback in price so it could very well be a good idea to be buying USD/ZAR at the moment BUT WHAT IF the USD/ZAR then went to something ‘ridiculous’ like R18 ZAR to $1 USD and this was then ‘widely considered’ to be an ‘absolute top’ and let’s say further that at THAT point traders started taking profits i.e. selling USD/ZAR. Now here’s the thing: WHO WOULD THEY BE SELLING TO??? I mean who would be buying USD/ZAR at this ‘absolute top’??? Someone would have to be buying otherwise you’d never be able to get out of your long trades but I GUARANTEE that on the day that this happened you’d have no problem selling USD/ZAR!!! In other words: how would it be possible to sell USD/ZAR and find a buyer that would not in their right mind buy USD/ZAR at this ‘absolute top’??? I’d find it EXTREMELY difficult to believe that this sort of trade would ‘go down’ or be possible because there would always be new and inexperienced traders willing to buy the USD/ZAR at this ‘absolute top’.