THE JOY OF CANDLESTICK TRADING - a Learning Experience

[mytwopips]

Thanks Tymen for the concern. I think we'll probably be ok with this one, but Cuba is going to get hammered. It's a CAT4 right now I believe, just coming up on them now. I'm sure the Gulf Coast is watching this one very closely as well.

Good to hear you are not in the direct path. Keep posting if you can to let us know about you.

I am just north of Houston, so they are giving us the run around too.

[mykungfuisgood]

Hey guys, been lurking this thread on and off.

I never noticed if tymen or anyone posted on the validity of candlestick patterns on the daily TF. I know its mentioned that the longer the TF the more power a pattern has but I wasn't sure if that was still true at daily and up.

Anyway wondering this these candlestick patterns would be valid or not.

[tymen1]

OK, answers to all questions starting with the first :

Quote from Wax :

I can't really see how a pattern on a 30 min chart could be tradeable, but not the same data on a 35 minute chart.

Everyone has had a go at answering this one, now let me have a go.

I believe, Wax, that the statement of yours above is the essence of your question.

The answer is simply that the data is tradable on a 35 min chart!!

Now the 30 min chart shows a pattern.
Now lets suppose that the pattern is a dark cloud and after it comes a series of long red candles going way down. (lovely trade!)

Then on the 25 min chart you will have a scrambled set of candles followed by a series of red candles.
Then on the 20min chart you will have a scrambled set of candles followed by a series of red candles.
Then on the 15min chart you will have a scrambled set of candles followed by a series of red candles.
Then on the 10min chart you will have a scrambled set of candles followed by a series of red candles.

etc.

So the pattern is valid on each time frame (t/f) and is followed by the same price drop.
You would make the same profit on each t/f.

But.........while you can see the pattern (signal) on the 30 min t/f, who can recognize the scramble pattern on the 25 min chart?

And who knows about the scrambled pattern on the 20 min chart?

And who can decipher the scrambled pattern on the 15 min chart?

etc

So the t/f are valid but recognizing the patterns is another thing.

On the t/f larger than 30 min eg 1 hour, 4 hour, the pattern tends to be lost in the longer term candle, and, therefore, cannot be used.

An example from physics :

The public telephone line outside your house carries umpteen messages all at once......tens of thousands of them.
Yet your telephone can filter out the message that pertains just to your house.
All other messages do not go in.
But all the messages are valid, not just yours.
Other telephones filter out the message relevant to them.
The filtering is done by the electronics.

In the same way, t/f's filter out a candlestick pattern.
If you see it, you can trade it.

This does not mean that other t/f's are not valid.
The code is just different for different t/f's.

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by Wax

As a side note, I am experimenting with Dealbook. I am going to post a couple questions about order entry in the appropriate forum.

Fire away!!

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by forexlover89

.................. i was asking about level # 4 of trading that's what i don't quite understand where to get in where to get out and do you just use the 5 min TF or do you use a main chart still. Once again thanks for your help

Please refer closely to the post #1153 on page 116.

One of the matters under knowledge assumed is familiarity with the Starc bands.
This can be got by referring to the keys given by FXCaribbean or by reading the thread.

To be specific :

There is an error in Condor's post and I will address that.

You must use the 5 minute timeframe to use the Starc bands - they are not on the main chart.

Entries and exits exactly are given according the the key diagram on page 115, post #1147 headed "Common Procedures at all Levels".....Definition : Starc Band Retrace Point.

Print this chart and keep it on hand.

How to use it is given in the notes underneath the diagram.

Hope this helps.
If you continue to have difficulties, please post again.

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by condor

Here is an example, to see if I understand it. It is a 1 hour chart, since my main chart is a 4 hour chart. BB are red and the Starc bands are blue.

A - initial entry
B - exit when crosses upper Starc band
C - re-enter when crosses middle Starc band
D - exit when crosses upper Starc Band
E - re-enter when crosses middle Starc Band
F - exit when crosses upper Starc Band

You refer back to the main chart only to see if you have gone too far from the initial pattern (about 7 candles).

I am sorry but there is a major error here in trading the Starc band.

It involves C and F.

You never use the middle Starc band.

The trades in the Advanced level go from one Starc band extreme to the other.

So if you are trading long :

(after pips first/retrace first)

Entry is at upper Starc (2 amounts) and exit at lower Starc (2 amounts).

and

So if you are trading short :

(after pips first/retrace first)

Entry is at lower Starc (2 amounts) and exit at upper Starc (2 amounts).

You refer back to the main chart only to see if you have gone too far from the initial pattern (about 7 candles).

This is correct.

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by damo989

Thanks Tymen for your awesome system can't wait to try it out when Kinetic set up my account.

Go for it Damo989!!

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by traderG

The way I understand it, the maximum risk for the basic and intermediate level will be the pip distance from the entry price and the PCI, since there is no other stop loss in between like the -2n for the very short term, and the -10 pips for the advanced, should the trade goes the wrong way, right?

Correct.

The PCI stop loss is set at a perfectly reasonable place and allows your trade to do a pullback, that is, we have "breathing room".

If you pick your patterns with quality in mind, and see that the Bollinger is not over extending itself, then the trade is highly unlikely to come near your stop loss.

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by cordite

Can I just get a confirmation on something?
At the advanced level, we are no longer locking in/protecting profits with multiple lots?
I've been using multiple lots still, but if others find there is no need I'll abandon them too...
Cord

Level 4 – Advanced Level

This level is the most difficult, but produces largest number of pips.
The 5 minute Starc band chart fully replaces the multiple-amount trading approach.
Because the Starc band approach is superior, large amounts of pips can be made.
Several entries and exits based on the Starc bands become the hallmark of this level and this gives rise to the large pips numbers.
Target profits are replaced by Starc band exits.

Note the 2nd statement here in Level 4.

Note the 3rd statement.
By using 2 amounts right thro from entry to exit, you are getting maximium efficiency.

The PCI stop loss is there to take care of any troubles.

The break even is not set because a certain amount of retracement may occur when the price action journeys from one Starc band extreme to the other.

To use the multiple-amount strategy within the Starc bands is to curtail a lot of your potential profits.

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by mykungfuisgood

......

I never noticed if tymen or anyone posted on the validity of candlestick patterns on the daily TF. .............Anyway wondering this these candlestick patterns would be valid or not.

Of course they are.
Why would they not be?!

Welcome to this thread Mykungfuisgood.

Your first pattern, a doji morning star has a greater probability of success than your second pattern which is just a morning star.

I trade neither, I find the other patterns a bit more to my liking.

Long timeframes give stronger probability patterns.
However, this is offset by their lack of frequency compared with short timeframes.

The Advanced level I have designed gives the best of both worlds.
You get lots of pips with high frequency patterns!!