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  #211 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2008, 10:46 AM
 

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Default Thank you

New to forex and been studying/reading like crazy...this thread has been one of the most informative resources I have come across...thank you tymen1 for sharing your knowledge...
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  #212 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2008, 11:23 AM
 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max99 View Post
Tymen,

Maybe I’m missing it but from the chart 8pipike posted it looks like he’s pointing to the candle at point A on the chart I posted.

That’s not a valid signal and I wouldn’t have traded that close to the news release just two bars later. That would have been quickly stopped out. Have you had success entering a trade before major news releases?
Just like to share what i have done last friday during those time with recent sample by tymen/8pipike.

Instead i used 1H chart (see attached). During the 3rd bar on the encircled bars, i was thinking it is going to develop a pattern so i wait for it to close and wait for next bar. While i was waiting, i watched TV and forget for a few minutes to monitor. When i get back, i saw the pattern formed and quickly go to 5m chart for entry. Luckily, i returned when the large green bar showedso i doubt myself if i should enter. I change the chart to 1m to look for the perfect entry and managed to enter near the top. I used the 5m chart for exit and managed to get +68 pips when the MACD started to reverse direction on 5m chart.

This was also my first demo trial of tymen's system and entry method and i'm also not aware of the news so this is some kinda luck. I'm not sure if i violated some of his system.
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File Type: jpg 5M.jpg (50.4 KB, 84 views)
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  #213 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2008, 01:32 PM
VulcanClassic's Avatar
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Hi Tymen,

Here is a trade I got faked out on.

I entered short at 1.9893 on the red candle of the scissor or engulfing ( not sure what it's called). I watched the next candle push down, then I went away and it came back up. I decided it was a bad entry and pulled the plug at 1.9896. Small loss of 3 pips.
But . . . while I was working it hit the BB again then drove on down. AARGGH!!

My whole morning went something like that with a couple of other pairs too. Seeing as how it wasn't outside of the BB I'm wondering if you might have taken that trade?

I guess it would have worked out if I placed my stop where you suggest, I forgot. I need to write down in point form the whole process.

Jeff
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Last edited by VulcanClassic; 04-07-2008 at 01:58 PM.
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  #214 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2008, 11:47 PM
tymen1's Avatar
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Default Repentance

I had a read thro my latest posts today.

I was horrified to see that my posts appear to have come thro as arrogant, self rightous and pompous

In typing enthusiastically, I come thro with entirely the wrong attitude.

I humbly apologize for being arrogant.

I apologize if I am perceived as being self rightous.

I apologize for appearing pompous.

Of these attitudes I repent and seek to be more humble.
If not, the market will soon humble me, but I want to be humble first before I lose all my money.

If the readers here are learning more about candlesticks, then it is I who need to learn more also - about humility !!


To 8pipike: I am sorry that I posted so harshly and arrogantly. You are doing well and by continuing your efforts you are heading for great success!!

Your English is fine. It is Lovely forex who needs to do English homework!



To Tyrant Ragg : I am sorry that I appeared so self rightous. I will seek to show a better attitude!

Last edited by tymen1; 04-07-2008 at 11:50 PM.
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  #215 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 12:09 AM
tymen1's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max99 View Post
Tymen,

Maybe I’m missing it but from the chart 8pipike posted it looks like he’s pointing to the candle at point A on the chart I posted.

That’s not a valid signal and I wouldn’t have traded that close to the news release just two bars later. That would have been quickly stopped out. Have you had success entering a trade before major news releases?
You may well be right here Max99. I assume we can only be sure by asking 8pipike directly. I use reading glasses and I cannot see these smaller details which you can clearly see.

As you say, I agree with you that an entry at point A is not a valid signal.

I am totally ignorant about news releases. I just enter the trade. If there is a news release I never know about it as I am not a fundamentals trader.
Sometimes when I trade I get a very fast moving red candle going down.
This is great - much profit - these must be the news releases.

However, being a scalper, I play it safe and cut off my trades. Some of these go on to produce tremendous profits and I miss out. Again, these must be the news releases that I know nothing about.

Not letting my trades run is a weakness I have and as a result, I miss out on profits. I would say that it is easy to trade better than I do.

My broker warned me, however, to beware of these news times as slippage is a major problem. I have not had this problem so apparently I must be getting in just before or nowhere near a news release. Or else a stop loss gets hit.
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  #216 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 12:17 AM
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To Dank : Thank you for your compliment. Keep up the good work of reading/studying. Glad you like this thread!
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  #217 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 12:36 AM
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To Vulcan Classic :

You are doing well there! Ferreting out those patterns.

The pattern you were seeking is called a "dark cloud cover"

Now my eyesight is not as good as yours and I submit that larger candles would make for easier trading.

If I see correctly, it appears that the red candle body is not as high as the green one before it. (its open not as high as the close of the previous candle).

If this is so, then this would invalidate this as a pattern. I submit that we should only look for quality patterns to minimize the risk of losing our money.

Go to this hyperlink again - click until you get the full script on the "dark cloud cover" pattern. See how it is constructed and what the requirements are. I still go there regularly myself just to check my own diagnosis.

Also, with the dark cloud, it is good to be well into the upper Bolinger band.

Japanese Candlestick Charting Explained
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  #218 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyrant_ragg View Post
Just like to share what i have done last friday during those time with recent sample by tymen/8pipike.

Instead i used 1H chart (see attached). During the 3rd bar on the encircled bars, i was thinking it is going to develop a pattern so i wait for it to close and wait for next bar. While i was waiting, i watched TV and forget for a few minutes to monitor. When i get back, i saw the pattern formed and quickly go to 5m chart for entry. Luckily, i returned when the large green bar showedso i doubt myself if i should enter. I change the chart to 1m to look for the perfect entry and managed to enter near the top. I used the 5m chart for exit and managed to get +68 pips when the MACD started to reverse direction on 5m chart.

This was also my first demo trial of tymen's system and entry method and i'm also not aware of the news so this is some kinda luck. I'm not sure if i violated some of his system.

I would like to go thro this trade in some detail. I checked that pattern on my charts - it is exactly the same. Unfortunately, my 5 min charts have now deleted this area on 4 April.

I cannot see the Keltner bands on Tryrant Ragg's 5 min chart so I cannot comment.

Also on Friday, I was trading the Australian share market so I missed this trade.

However, suppose we got a good entry after the 3rd evening star candle. Lets say, half way up that candle.

Then the price roared upwards and our stop loss is set at 2/3 pips above the high of the "star". So we hit the stop loss.

This is then, a failed trade.

However, a re-entry short at the high of this 4th candle is interesting. The high reached a very rare point of 3.4 standard deviations on the upper Bolinger band.
Such a high is unsustainable and would very quickly drop down to the standard 2.0 dev. Bolinger band at which point it could be wise to close the trade - because with such extremes you do not know what will happen next.

This is apparently what Tyrant Ragg has done although it has nothing to do with the orthodox short entry method. Good for you, Tyrant Ragg, that you make a profit out of this.
But watching the TV might not be such a good idea!!

Maybe we should keep in mind that when such a spike occurs above the upper BB, it is worth a rapid short trade.
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  #219 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 03:56 AM
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And now, for that post that I said was all important. (long post)

If you understand this, you will understand and master candlesticks.




Why exactly is it that the candlestick method is so powerful?
Why can we get trades going when indicators do not show to even enter?


Well, here I am going to try to answer this question. I will use an example from physics as an aid.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

You all know what a magnet is. It is made of iron or an iron alloy and attracts anything made of iron, nickel or cobalt.
Place a handful of nails on a table and the quickest way to pick them up is to grab them all with a magnet. Then you can lower them back into a container.

A small bar magnet will pick up any small iron object, be it nails, screws, a knife or anything else. Indeed magnetic screwdrivers are the property of electricans and you can buy magnetic screwdrivers at a hardware store.
They make life easier when a screw drops into some inaccessible place.

Now the magnet has what is called a "magnetic field" around it. Any small iron object within this field can be attracted. But not so outside this field. The magnetic field gets weaker further away from the magnet.

Even so, this magnetic field is invisible. You know it is around the magnet because of the influence the magnet has. That is, you can see the effect of the magnet. But the field itself you cannot see.

Now look at the diagram below >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-04-08

However, suppose we put a bar magnet on a table and then put a glass plate over the magnet.
We then pour iron filings from a container onto the plate and rap the plate with our fingers.

The iron filings will take on a pattern something like in the diagram above.

Here we now have visual evidence of the existance of this magnetic field. We can now, if you like "see" the magnetic field that previously was so mysterious.




Now we know that in all trading, including forex trading emotions are at work.
These we all know as being fear, greed, anticipation, indecision ...........and any others you think should be included.

But you cannot see these emotions. You cannot collect a container of liquid fear. Nor can you get a kilogram of greed.
These emotions are at work in the trading business but they are at work invisibly behind the scenes.
Because they are invisible, you can only see their effect when they occur.
price races down - fear is present................price goes up - greed at work.

But you can see all these emotions!

Not with a glass plate and iron filings but with ...............yep...a candlestick chart!

Every time you see a candlestick pattern you see a "magnetic field". That is, you see a recognized and well proven pattern of emotions at work. The candlestick chart is then, an emotions chart, and you can see when the emotions are at work.
You can see which emotions are at work as well as discerning the intensity of those emotions.

Since emotions are a main driver of the market, you now have the clearest view of what is happening. Therefore, you can enter and exit the market based on these emotions and be done with your trade long before the indicator devotee gets his signals.

Assuming that we have an emotions chart, we also know that these emotions are very predictable. We know what will happen next.
We, therefore, need to know our emotion (candlestick) patterns accurately because a slight change in the pattern means a change in the emotions.

With indicators, no such understanding is possible.

The MACD, for example, is a mathematical manipulation of a series of closes. The MACD knows nothing of what happened between any two closes.
Was there a very high high? Did the price dip to a great low? Who knows? None of this information is revealed in an indicator. Yet it is this very information that gives away the emotions at work.

And it is the shape and pattern of the candle that reveals all this information, in the same way as iron filings on a glass plate reveal the activity of a magnetic field.

Last edited by tymen1; 04-08-2008 at 04:07 AM.
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  #220 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2008, 09:52 AM
VulcanClassic's Avatar
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Thanks Tymen,

I printed those patterns and will check them before a trade.

Right now I've got some trades going my way but man what a fight. Just can't get the mojo going. Yesterday was brutal.




Do you take countertrend trades?

It seems the entries are still valid but they turn around at or near the middle BB.

Also, what's the longest you've had to wait for an entry?

I'm getting up at 4:30 AM so I miss the first hour and a half of the EUR session and I'm watching 12 pairs - one key point I learned here is not to trade the pair but the setup - thanks again.

Happy Trading
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