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  #271 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 04:59 AM
tymen1's Avatar
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Location: Perth, Western Australia
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And now back to that EUR/USD trade on a on Thursday 10.

We are looking here at the 5 minute KC chart.

At last call we had resigned ourselves to an impending loss by the price action hitting the stop loss.

We were left with the "3 green soldiers" pattern signaling price action going up and up against our wishes.

Then suddenly >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-04-10

The price suddenly goes down again!
After a doji, it then goes up again!

It then develops as a green candle and roars upwards like an Apollo rocket going even 1 pip above the star (highlighted in blue) to reach a height of 56 pips (highlighted in yellow) - only 2 pips short of our stop loss.

Then it plummets down and becomes a red candle (highlighted in yellow).
The MACD goes down with it.

Do you like roller coaster rides ??

Do we have an exit?

Not yet, but the next two candles (red) bring the trade to rock bottom and the MACD is heading down and now is beneath zero.

At the end of the chart, the price goes up again !!!

Do we exit?

Lets look at the next 5 minute chart.

Next post.

Last edited by tymen1; 04-11-2008 at 05:08 AM.
  #272 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 05:20 AM
tymen1's Avatar
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Here is the next chart (5 minute). >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-04-10


Important note here. The Keltner chart is no longer shaded in grey. It is as it truely appears on my charts - and yours.
The upper/lower bands are in grey and the middle band is in yellow. All 3 Bolinger bands remain in royal blue.


* * *


At the end of the chart the price went up
Then down again

Boy, we are really getting our money's worth when it comes to roller coaster rides!!

I exited at the doji as shown at 29. This gave me entry-exit ie 42-29=13 pips.

Thats 3 for the spread (EUR/USD) and 10 for me.

I had enough of the roller coaster - I get very sick on them !!

But what about if you are still in the trade. Do we exit?
Sooner or later that MACD is going to flattern out.
At present the height of MACD below zero is getting to be the same as the height of MACD above zero.

So do we exit?

I give you no answers. The choice is yours to make.

Lets update to the next 5 minute chart.

Last edited by tymen1; 04-11-2008 at 05:33 AM.
  #273 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 05:49 AM
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The last 5 minute chart >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-04-11

Here we definitely come to the end of the trade as the MACD flattens out as predicted. The price, however, goes up as the MACD flattens!

So you are left with an exit of 26. Not much better than my exit of 29.

Maybe you should have closed at the very bottom of the red candle. Easy to see in hindsight eh ?!

Well, lets go once more to the main 20 minute chart to bring conclusions and closure to this trade.
  #274 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 06:10 AM
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Here is the final chart of the series - 20 minute chart >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-04-10


The evening star is highlighted in blue.

As you can see, this was a dramatic trade, going down first, then retracing upwards to within 2 pips of our stop loss, then plummeting down to a real profit and passing thro the lower Bolinger band.

At the end, a large, green engulfing candle appeared on the lower BB giving opportunity to trade long and make a 2nd profit!

* * *

So where do we exit?

To summarize, a trade is considered active until either .......

1) the stop loss is hit.
2) a target price is hit...........whichever comes first.

So where are you going to set your target profit?

Well, that is for you to choose. Do you like roller coaster rides? Or will you trust intuition and get out while the going is good?

I, for one, scalp for safety. The safest pips are those closest to the candle pattern.

Something will need to be said about risk/reward ratios.

Lets conclude :................we have looked at :

1) Choosing candle patterns carefully
2) Setting stop losses correctly
3) Considered exit a method of exit.

What have you learnt?

* * *


That brings this series to a close. I am very tired from all the preparation work and unfortunately, I have taken ill. So I will be confined to bed. My ginger long haired cat, Sweetie, will keep me company.

So I will take a rest, and, all being well, I will continue on Tuesday.


*

Last edited by tymen1; 04-11-2008 at 06:16 AM.
  #275 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 06:32 AM
 

Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4
Default Thanks Again Tyumen!!

I have cut and paste this thread into MSWord and have been studying for the past 2 days...I hope you don't mind that - please let me know if its a problem..."What have I learned"..hope to have a good answer by Monday..have a great weekend and thanks for sharing your knowledge...
  #276 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 10:00 AM
 

Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Memphis
Posts: 1
Default Get well

Tymen,
Thanks for all your hard work. I hope you feel better soon.
hontheroadagain
  #277 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2008, 01:23 PM
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Tymen,

Sorry to hear your sick - get well soon.

What a difference the 20min chart makes, I see alot more entries than the 30min. I can't wait for Monday (Never thought I'd say that).

I decided to go with Dealbook. I already had it but wasn't using it because GFT demo expires, thanks for the link.

Unfortunately those 20m charts in MT decided to stop ticking after the computer went to sleep and woke up again. Also the candles don't give quite as clear an entry signal as Dealbook (not sure why). Anyway, I want to learn how to trade, not program computers, so Dealbook it is.

Have a good weekend,

Jeff
  #278 (permalink)  
Old 04-12-2008, 10:42 AM
yuv yuv is offline
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Default get well sooon tymen.

thanks for all ur efforts. i cant thank u enough anyways.

sorry guys i have been away for a while thats y i couldnt update on my trades as there were none.

thanks a bunch vulcan for your find and help us settting 20 min. i m sure everyone using mt4 will apreciate ur efforts. one more thing, y did u decide to go for dealbook? the reason y i ask this is that i m using mt4 and i have tried dealbook as well. but prefered mt4 because of its simplicity and ease of use. what did u find in dealbook that made u go for it. i hope i m not missing anything.

goood luck trading.
  #279 (permalink)  
Old 04-12-2008, 12:16 PM
VulcanClassic's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuv View Post

thanks a bunch vulcan for your find and help us settting 20 min. i m sure everyone using mt4 will apreciate ur efforts. one more thing, y did u decide to go for dealbook? the reason y i ask this is that i m using mt4 and i have tried dealbook as well. but prefered mt4 because of its simplicity and ease of use. what did u find in dealbook that made u go for it. i hope i m not missing anything.

goood luck trading.
Yuv,

I too prefer MT4 mainly for it's display and ease of use, but, for some reason it drops the period converter. Not sure because I haven't troubleshot it, but I think it's to do with the computer going to sleep. I just don't want to go through that whole procedure everytime I turn the computer on. Hopefully it doesn't happen to you.

Dealbook actually isn't too bad once you get used to it.
Compare 20m charts between the two and you'll see MT4 candles are slightly different, probably price feed between the two brokers (ie: Engulfing or Dark Cloud; the open of the red candle won't line up as nicely with the close of the previous candle as on DB) so I see more of Tymens entries on Dealbook.

Also there are more pairs available. With the NorthFinance MT4 demo you get 12 pairs, but really it might as well be 4 or 5 because alot of them correlate so closely to eachother. Dealbook I managed to find 9 that seem to have different price action, without getting into exotics.

Hopefully that answers your question.

Happy Trading
  #280 (permalink)  
Old 04-13-2008, 02:14 PM
yuv yuv is offline
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thanks for the reply vulcan. yeah it did answer my questions. actually i have been also practicing dealbook but the only thing i m concerned is that not sooo many brokers do dealbook so dont u think that the choice of brokers are limited. and do you know of any good brokers with dealbook coz i dont know more than 2. and which broker are u using for demoing. gft only allows for a month or so if i m not mistaken. do u know of any which allows to demo more.

hope tymen is feeling better now. get welll sooon tymen. goood luck you all.
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