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  #591 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:22 PM
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Although the candles are walking close to the upper band, it is not trumpetting, so i think the evening star is valid. The long wick of the red candle is a little worrying but the body does close more than half way into the first candle.

Without the 5min chart for reference, I would enter at the close of the red candle, stop loss at the top of the evening star + 2 pips - 108.10.
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  #592 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 06:53 AM
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Default Here to learn for the long haul

Sorry about last post...i was having a bad day...should of taken a few deep breathes first. Anyway thankyou tonymand i am following your advice, and Tymen thankyou, it is because of you i am getti ng better...just not ther yet!

My answer is that at the close of the third candle in the pattern, i would switch to the five minute chart that i have setup already to determine my entry depending on the price resultant (MACD/MID BOLLINGER BAND),on the five minute chart.
My stoploss would be placed, from what i see on the 25minute chart. As the price has been rising steadily for 3 to 4 hours i would place my stoploss at the highest risk at 3 pips above 108.08 ,ie 108.11 stoploss.
I would take the trade as it is a good/sound evening star pattern and the bollinger band isnt trumpeting but the rise has been steady, but sometimes in this situation a second pattern will result in the price going down and the first just send it sideways.
Anyway i await the 5 minute chart now to determine my entry point/price.


PS. I wish you didnt tell me you were successful on this one till the end, as we know the pattern is going to be successful. (not sure it matters though..)
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  #593 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trav72 View Post
PS. I wish you didnt tell me you were successful on this one till the end, as we know the pattern is going to be successful. (not sure it matters though..)
Interesting point here Trav72.
I didn't think of that!
You are quite right in suspecting that my comment would have influenced people's decisions.

I will be more careful next time in what I say.
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Last edited by tymen1; 06-17-2008 at 10:42 AM.
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  #594 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 10:56 AM
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Answer to Stage 1

It is pleasing to see that several readers are participating in this trade!!
As a retired school teacher, I can tell you that this is the best way to learn - by putting your neck on the line.

There is much more to be gained from active participation rather than just passive looking at the thread from home and not contributing.




Looking at the candle pattern shows that it is promising even with the long lower wick on the 3rd candle.

The BB is a problem though.

We have had a whole number of green candles walking the upper BB. There is only one other red candle and it has had no effect on the walk upwards.
The BB width has remained constant with the whole band system rising steadily.
There is nothing on the chart to indicate that the BB direction or width is going to change.
It is all up to the candle pattern.

At the time of trading I suspected that the price action, at best, would break and travel horizontal. A second pattern would be needed to send it down.

Even so, the pattern is good, and some downward price action could be expected.
So lets wait and see what happens.

So, for me, its the stop loss at the high risk position - 3 pips above the top of the "star".
That makes my stop loss 108.08+0.03 = 108.11

To be on the safe side, you could put every stop loss at the high risk position.

But I will show you a better way in the NEW TRADING METHOD to follow.

OK, lets go into the trade.
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Last edited by tymen1; 06-17-2008 at 11:05 AM.
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  #595 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 11:17 AM
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Stage 2

We are now going to enter the trade!

Below is a 5 minute KC chart of the trade.
It shows the Bollinger bands in blue and the three Keltner bands in orange.
The Keltner bands have been shaded grey for your convenience.
A Di Napoli MACD is shown in the lower half of the chart >>>


By tymen1 at 2008-06-15

The "new open" is the opening of the 4th or entry candle.

Remember we are going to enter short.

The question is on the chart.

Read it very carefully and follow the stages in answering the question.

Answer, together with Stage 3 tomorrow.
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Last edited by tymen1; 06-17-2008 at 11:25 AM.
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  #596 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 12:04 PM
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Post Stage 2 Answers

Stage 2

BB. Vector flat, MACD is pointing down.. Resultant lil'down lower KC .

Enter straight away as price above middle KC right now..

Thanks as always Tymen....

Last edited by KENNETH LEE; 06-17-2008 at 12:12 PM.
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  #597 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 06:19 PM
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Default Step 2


By travpip at 2008-06-17
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  #598 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 09:30 PM
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It looks to me like the resultant is just below the middle KC so short now.
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  #599 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 11:24 PM
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Agree with all below, short NOW.
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  #600 (permalink)  
Old 06-18-2008, 07:51 AM
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Arrived too late for the first stage!
Oh well.. i read it and agreed with the answers people wrote.

Stage 2 - I also agree.. short now as resultant is pointing to a middle band entry.
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