Gbp/jpy

4xStar · #**201** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 02:15 AM

So far tonight, our G-Y friend has tested the 00 level twice and failed, as of this typing, it is heading south again ... keep an eye out, this could become a good ride one way or the other

Those sweetspot indicators mentioned below just mark the 00 and 50 levels, very useful for the G-Y as often if it fails a 00 or 50 level you can expect a 100+ pip move in the opposite direction .. just something to check out on an hourly chart, everything helps when learning to ride this pair.

4xStar · #**202** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 01:57 PM

OK, now it is just teasing us again! Down to 202.96, looked like the continuation pattern mentioned in the G-Y thread .. then suddenly reverses back to 203.70-ish and bangs its head there.

I *think* it will end up going down before making a major retracement back up, and after this consolidation whichever way it goes .. could be a substantial move.

Is this an unpredictable pair, or what? If anyone has figured out *how* to predict it .. post it here asap

cadarkitek · #**203** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 02:15 PM

I'm back at this pair after a 2 weeks off, I'm presently Long, looking forward to 205.00. 50 pip trail stop.

PipChick · #**204** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 02:59 PM

I keep forgetting to check this thread!! Seems like the g/j tries to break up but is faced with the 200, 100 and 50 ema's on the 4 hr which are all converged. The downside h/s on the daily and 4 hr are still holding. I personally wouldnt buy until a break of the 204.50 area. Shorts look more promising due to the h/s patterns and MA's.

PipChick · #**205** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 02:59 PM

Welcome back cadar!

4xStar · #**206** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PipChick

I keep forgetting to check this thread!! Seems like the g/j tries to break up but is faced with the 200, 100 and 50 ema's on the 4 hr which are all converged. The downside h/s on the daily and 4 hr are still holding. I personally wouldnt buy until a break of the 204.50 area. Shorts look more promising due to the h/s patterns and MA's.

I agree Pip Chick

Andrewunknown · #**207** (**permalink**) 05-19-2008, 07:31 PM

I posted this first paragraph to my blog on 5/13: amidst the 204.81/202.55 congestion region, it's still applicable, though my short-term (usually a shelf-life worth a swing trade) upward bias wore itself out:

The Guppy is backed up against 204.20 with nowhere to go. In the scope of the full decline of 212.86 to 192.01 (basically 2100 pips) we just saw a revisit of extension from 208 (23.6%) to 200 (61.8%) and now a retracement since Sunday back to the current level shy of 204.00, with 204.81 (38.2%) acting as our next retracement barrier; but again, 204.20 is presenting some interference to that advance.

Here's a baby-pips-specific addendum

:

I went long @ 203.64 based off this on 05/13, stopped out at 204.01 after a move to just above 204.81. After the third touch of the fib level failed to materialize into a break, I shorted at 204.81 on 05/14. Still holding there and anticipate further downside. That said, a break of 203 (proving a bit formidable the past day or two) will mean a decline to the 50% fib @ 202.55, which is reinforced by a heretofore durable ascending trendline from 03/16. The 61.8% fib fan was finally breached and held on the 3:00 a.m. H1 candle, subsequently becoming resistance, this leaves the trendline in the 202.30 region, followed by the 50% fan @ 201.30. Medium-term I'm looking for a return deep into the 190s.

Andrewunknown