MACD/OsMA

Beginner Questions
1

While I am so busy posting let me ask this question (before Sunday night):

As most of you know by now I have stopped using the ‘shotgun’ approach and I am now trying to use the more ‘scientific’ approach by making use of charts and indicators and trading major pairs.

On my trading platform I have found that by just basing my trades on the MACD indicator (mine has an Moving Average Oscillator built in as well) I can (pretty much) always come out on top.

Although this is not really an exciting approach or mind boggling stuff it certainly works better for me than my previous approach.

What I would like to know if this can actually be so i.e. by just using this and now and then checking some of the other indicators before opening a position you are pretty much in the green most of the time.

Am I missing something or over simplifying this? (And yes I have read the section in school).

I mean - not to say that trading this way is is simple - but it just seems too good to be true and that means it usually is.

I must say that I am amazed at how it works. My problem in the past has been that I cut losses when I could not handle them anymore but this indicator keeps my hand away from the mouse even when a loss is showing because it inevitably turns into a gain eventually. I’ll watch those two lines converge and my immediate reaction is to want to close a losing position but it’s amazing how they look like they are about to cross but then suddenly things turn and they may run parallel to each other for a while and then change direction totally moving away from each other eventually resulting in a profit (if you know when to get out of course).

Any input?

Regards,

Dale.

2

what timeframe are you using the macd on. and can you upload it for us to take a look at.

I think simple systems work well, but we get discouraged because we get a few losses in a ranging market, anyway It seems to me that most of us have more problems with a ranging market.

Any way I would like to hear more about what you base your entry and exits on.

thanks
I love simple

3

Hi,

I’m not sure what you want me to upload.

All I am doing is working on the 5 minute, 1 minute, and tick graph (I actually have never seen this mentioned by anybody on this forum come to think of it. The tick graph is displayed the moment there is a change in price).

On the 5 minute I am checking to see what the current trend is, on the 1 minute I am waiting for MACD to ACTUALLY CROSS the signal line in the same direction that the 5 minute graph indicates where things are probably going and then on the tick graph I wait for MACD to ACTUALLY CROSS the signal line in the same direction as it has just crossed on the 1 minute. At that point I either buy or sell depending on the direction that MACD crossed the signal line. I then just sit and wait until the price changes in my favour i.e. when my net profit on a position has reached 10% of the cost of the lot I exit the trade.

You could be even more cautious and wait for MACD to cross the signal line on the hourly, then wait for it to cross the signal line on the 30 minute in the same direction, then wait for it to cross the signal line on the 15 minute in the same direction and so on and so forth. I can forsee two big problems though doing it this way. First of all it could mean that you may not open a position for hours on end and second of all you had better make sure that you have a huge useable margin in case of spikes or trends during the period. On the other hand you could be pretty sure that you would ALWAYS come out on top.

I don’t set any stops. This of course is the reason that I am sitting in this position at the moment:

http://www.babypips.com/forums/newbie-island/1376-help-how-do-you-get-out.html

I actually think the problem was that I should have seen that even although MACD was going in the right direction at the time after it crossed the signal line and by the time I opened the position the rate was actually the daily low at that specific time so there was nowhere further to go but change direction almost immediately at which point I should have closed the position regardless. This is something I obviously have to factor into the equation for the future.

Of course the greater the angle of the crossing on the 1 minute and the tick graphs the better because then you can be pretty sure that it is going to go in that direction for quite a while before changing direction again and you getting another signal.

This may appear simplistic but I managed to make $90 on an original $500 account in about 8 hours. Might not sound like a lot but if it were a $5 000 account and I was trading $500 lots instead of $50 lots then it would have been $900 instead of $90 (I’ve cost myself about $4 000 up until now by NOT using graphs and indicators so I’m being slightly cautious now you will notice). Also remember that to me that is an absolute fortune as I have to multiply the $90 ($900) by 7 when I bring it back to me i.e. convert to ZAR from USD.

I’m also not set on the 10% idea and if I look at my report I will probably find that I closed a position the moment it was making a profit no matter how small. Slow and time consuming but may just work for me.

Throughout the day it fascinated me how this indicator works. Up until yesterday I would have waited for a high then opened a position HOPING that the direction would change in my favour. I was amazed to see how MACD will head for the signal line and you think OK let me get in early but don’t - hold off until MACD ACTUALLY CROSSES the signal line. It is amazing to see MACD approaching the signal line and look like it is going to cross but then does not and may do a sharp turn and run parallel to the signal line for ages before crossing again in the same direction or moving away again in the other direction in which case you would be lose lose lose.

Any thoughts and opinions on this ‘strategy’ would be really appreciated.

I think what is missing from my plan is a more defined exit strategy.

Regards,

Dale.

4

that IS alot !!

make that every day … and your live will change !