Trader123's trading idea

High yield currency continues to be in favour after downside risks appear to have diminished.

Bought 100,000 NZD/USD at 0.7578
Place GTC stop at 0.7538
Target level at 0.7640

My proven indicator is still showing buy signal for AUD/USD.

Bought 100,000 AUD/USD at 0.9570
Place GTC stop at 0.9520
Target level at 0.9620

Hi trader123…what is your “Proven Indicator”?

Thanks :slight_smile:

Maybe he’ll tell you for $99.99.

His NZD/USD trade got stopped out earlier this afternoon for Loss of $400 USD. So far his losses have been bigger than his gains, bad risk management!

In my previous NZD/USD trade, my position was stopped out, then NZDUSD proceeds its way up. Realised loss is US$400.

Often the question asked by my readers is that: maybe we shouldnt put a stop for our trades. This is a no no, a stop must be placed. If you are frustrated over being stopped out despite being right in your view, the other way to trade is binary option trading.

My proven indicator is still signal buy for NZD/USD. The most encouraging thing in my trading is that my proven indicator has proven again and again to be correct and reliable. My NZD/USD and EUR/GBP trades were stopped out first before they continue its way up which is what my indicator had signaled.

Today I place US$100 Over trade for NZD/USD daily, strike price is 0.7587, odds is 1.500. If NZD/USD closed above at 0.7587 at 5am China time, I will win this trade. If I win, I will profit US$150. If I lose, my lost is US$100.

Trading platform is mentioned in my home page, I’m not allowed to post any the website of the platform here.

No, I have more winning trades than losing trades.

I had opened a platform that trades in forex and commodities early this year with a deposit of US$5000, now my equity is up more than 50%.

I post all my trades in my website. You can visit my homepage to take a look.

I had bought 100,000 AUD/USD at 0.9570, place GTC stop at 0.9520, target level at 0.9620.

AUD/USD goes above 0.9620, so my position is closed at a profit.
Realised gain is US$500.

My indicator has proven to be reliable, accurate and profitable.

Then what do you have to prove by posting your “signals” here, with nothing but a mysterious “indicator” as the source of all the success. You set yourself up to either be a successful jerk, or a lying loser… your choice.

Is your indicator proven?

I think carry trades are too risky now. Broader concerns about the liquidity of money markets alive. A loss of liquidity in a money market generally has more serious effects than a loss of liquidity in markets for longer-term instruments because such large amounts of money market instruments become due each day. If investors pull back from a money market, the issuers come under substantial liquidity pressures very suddenly.

My trading profit is more than 50% since start of the year, a large part comes from my indicator. My indicator is not a mystery, you can check it out in my website.

My equity in my account is now US$8102.76, I had opened the account with US$5000, so my account is still up 62% this year.

This week is a frustrating week for me and my readers (who had followed my trades). We had bought EURGBP and NZDUSD on 2 occassions based on buy signal from my indicators, both positions were stopped out, after that they rebounded sharply up.

But the encouraging thing is that my indicator has continued to proven that it is accurate and reliable, as the currency pairs eventually move according to its signals.

To counter the above problem, I may reduce my forex contract size from 100,000 to 50,000, so I can afford to place a stop further away.

I had lost 2 trades on my oil trading. Some readers question me about my indicator for oil trading. Actually that is a punt, seeing oil trading within the range of $131 to $139, its logic to sell at the resistance and buy at the support level. However oil has broken out of the range this week.

I try to keep to my rule on oil trading: Never short oil.

trader123,
You were invited to share further information here about “binary trading”, which you declined to do; but as mentioned in the thread where you initially posted, fixed odds online betting (something those of us in the US cannot do, anyway) is not trading, even if it is speculation about the direction of spot price.

Also, realize that terms like “strike price” mean nothing to individuals who have no background in options (which describes most people who post here); nor should they know what it means, because it has nothing to do with spot forex trading. I don’t say this as a criticism of you so much as to help make your posts more intelligible to others.

A couple of other points:

Why not share your “proven indicator” here? Why can’t it be briefly explained on the forum where you are posting, rather than providing no explanation when questions are asked and instead constantly redirecting to your website, where you have links and ads prominently displayed as an affiliate/IB for a brokerage firm? I am not accusing you of trawling for referrals, but your conduct seems a bit suspect. Try to contribute quality content here on a consistent basis; perhaps by opening a trading journal or even a system thread in the appropriate areas of the forum. If your trading calls/signals are profitable on an ongoing basis, people would no doubt visit your site without being asked.

Lastly: all traders are familiar with the scenario you described: some indicator or overlay signals a trade, the trade stops out, but then the market goes in the direction of the trade. That happens to everyone. What this “proven indicator” lacked was the money management appropriate to keep you in the trade. As you know, indicators, no matter how predictive, mean nothing if you can’t stay in a trade that turns out profitably - they have to be incorporated into a comprehensive strategy. “Proven indicators” aren’t impressive because, taken alone, they can’t prevent losses. As it turns out, managing the trade effectively is as important (if not more important) than the trade entry itself.

I dont remember being ask to share about binary trading, I think I had left out, I’m glad to share of course.

I had contributed an article sometime back, related to binary option trading, I will just copy and paste it here:

[B]How to Profit From Volatility in the Forex Market?[/B]

Most retail forex traders only know how to place directional trades, and miss the chance to profit on volatility.

Everyday there are economic data from US, UK or Europe, namely Non-farm payroll, New Homes Sales, Unemployment, Personal Income, CPI, PPI etc; some of these datas can move the forex market rather wildly. So to trade volatility is the best strategy for days like that.

Two ways you can profit from volatility:

  1. Long strangle
    Long strangle involves going long (buying) both a call option and a put option of the same underlying security. The owner of a long strangle makes a profit if the underlying price moves a long way from the current price, either above or below.

  2. Buy Out in binary option trading
    Buy Out in binary option trading is similar to long strangle. In the binary trading platform, traders can choose to bet that a particular currency pair is going to close of the range by the expiration time of the contract. Sounds complicated?

Here is a real example:

On 2nd June 08, there were 3 economics data announcements:

ISM Manufacturing
Construction Spending MoM
ISM Prices Paid

So that day would be a good opportunity to trade volatility.

I placed US$300 bet on OUT trade, betting that USD/CAD will close out of the 0.9921-0.9951 range by 5am China time. The odds is 0.565; if I win I profit US$169.50, if I lose I lost US$300.

Eventually USD/CAD closed at 1.0012 at 5am China time, so it was out of the 0.9921-0.9951 range. So this trade I profited US$169.50.

There are many binary trading platforms available in the market, just search for “binary trading” in Google you will be able to find a varieties of trading platform. [I]I hope I can share to the new forex traders on the platform that I’m using, but I dont think its allow.[/I]

[B]So what are the pros and cons of trading volatility using strangle and binary options? [/B]

For binary option trading the odds are predetermined, so even though that particular currency pair that you are betting moves very far out of the range, your profit is limited to the odds of the trade. But for strangle, your profit will not be limited; The further the currency pair moves, the more profit the trader will gain.

To create a strangle can be quite expensive for a retail trader. 1 lot of currency option usually costs more than US1000. Some financial institutions are only willing to sell a strangle to you only if your strangle makes up of 4 options (not 2 optios). So this means a strangle can easily cost more than US$4000 for 1 trade. But for binary option trading, retail trader can place a bet as small as US1.

Sure, my indicator is not secret, and money management is very important in any form of trading.

First I want to explain how do this proven indicator comes about.

I do back-testing on the various currency pairs and commodities. Period used for my back-testing is 2 years. In my view anything less than 2 years is not sufficient to capture the various senarios. And anything more than 2 years may not be relevant or useful in my short term trading.

I have 5 indicators used in the back-testing, I will only use that indicator when 1) it is shown as the best among the 5 indicators in the back-testing 2) it has proven itself to be profitable.

Of course a lot of currency pairs and commodities had failed my test, mainly because the revenue generated from the test is too small.

My proven indicator for AUD/USD is bollingerband. This indicator has helped me made a lot of money this year.

Regarding money-management:
Once I enter a position, I will set my stop and target level. I’m a short term trader and I try to close off my position within 24 hours. So my stop and target level is usually about 30 - 50 pips from my entry point.

So the important question is do I win all the time using my proven indicator?
My answer is no. Not because my indicator is not reliable, many a times its because I had placed my stop too close.

NZD/USD is a good example, my indicator is showing buy. So I buy, place a stop level. My stop was hit, then NZD/USD rebounds sharply up.

I had shared my proven strategy for my forex trading, I hope other profitable traders are generous to share their proven strategies as well.

My indicator has signaled sell for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. I’ll be interested to short them on rebound next week.

Well if you swear that you’re up 62% for this year, and that’s the truth, then I guess your indicator works pretty good. But still, that weird Betting platform that you “trade” from is really dodgy if you ask me. Why don’t you just trade on a real FX platform and maybe people will stop mistaking you for some kind of spam artist.

Finally you are more friendly to me now. Thank you for that.

I think my indicator is working pretty work, except that sometimes I place my stops too close. So there are times that my trades are stopped out, then the currency continues to move in my view. This happen to me twice on NZD/USD and EUR/GBP.

As for the binary option trading, it just solved my problem of false stopped out. Because after you place your bet, there is no placing of stops, whether you earn or lose is determined when the option expires.

Binary option trading is new in the market, maybe people still cannot accept it, but that is a safer way to trade forex, commodities and stock indicies, simply because your risk is limited. You will not lose more than your capital.

And for conventional forex trading, we can make directional trades, but not volatility trades. Binary option trading allows you to make volaility trades. If you make a volatility trades on the day of FOMC announcement, there is more than 80% chance that your OUT trade will win.

Today my indicator has signaled sell for EUR/JPY, I reduce my size and place my stop further this round.

Shorted 50,000 EUR/JPY at 167.91
Place a GTC stop at 168.80
Target level at 167.00