Mp -- Some Of My Non-secret Secrets

[mp6140]

ah dollyjen --- this is the very reason i exist on this glorious LEARNING site, so set thyself down here weedhooper and we shall learn you !

after 5pm, the market does its second MAJOR REVERSE of the day (a major reverse is one that will prob go to the 50 fib, while a minor reverse only goes to the 23 fib (or reasonably close, as fibs arent what they used to be, but then neither is the dollar for that matter !) This is automatic and readily apparent by 6:30pm, for those slow of reflex !

WHATEVER was the dominent trend prior to this time is now REVERSED --- yes, LONG becomes SHORT and SHORT becomes LONG and the world is twisted upside down.

this is almost an automatic trade, and usually the point where the H1 trade that is on your chart REALLY BEGINS !

the most wonderful profits can be made by entering trades off the H1 and sleeping peacefully through the night, awakening to find that those on the other side of the pond have made you a rich person while you slept.

Now i would never ask you to run right out and do this, but perhaps on day one you might just PEEK at the chart, and on day two you could actually LOOK at it, and on day 3 you might STUDY it and on day 4 you might say "GOLLY GEE WHILLIKERS, HE MAY JUST HAVE SOMETHING HERE !" and on day 5 ----- whooooooooops ------ sorry, hold off cause this is friday and even though it will work fine, you would have the whole weekend to toss and turn and probably have intestinal problems that could cause you to have to visit the people hospital --- best to hold this for DAY ONE of the following week !

enjoy and trade well

mp

Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!



Quote:
Originally Posted by dollyjen
what i know about this is, that trading "after hours" would not be profitable because, the best hours for trading (depending on the pair) will be those when the market has more liquidity. So, if we are talking about the EUR/USD, it is supposed to be between 15:00 EST and 18:00 EST, cause by that time, more traders are entering the market.

[Shane]

Hi mp...great thread!

I am currently building a strategy using a lot of the ideas outlined at nobrainertrades.com and I have been looking for a good simple directional/trend indicator. LR Channels could be exactly what I am looking for.

Looking forward to reading more of your posts...thanks heaps for sharing.

[mp6140]

if you are position trading, the LRC is a simple and wonderful tool for just that, as you wont get involved with all the intraday moves (unless you wish to play some) that exist with intraday "position" trading or more commonly known as "scalping" (which is an INCORRECT word for what is being done, but I cant fight the whole world and teach them the correct words !

SCALPING was originally done back in the days of the "SOES" bandits, a bunch of traders working with phone modems and a rule at the stock exchange that allowed "small order execution" trades to rise to the top of the specialists books. In those days, fractions and not decimals ruled the roost, and the spread on stocks was wide compared to today --- what we used to do was buy at the bid (hopefully) or just another 1/16th up from the bid, but below the ask, and sell at the ask, gaining 1/16 or 1/8 of a point. Do that repeatedly all day long and it began to look like money.

Unfortunately, that is history as the decimal system was brought in partly to STOP that activity --- we were simply eating the specialists lunch, and they were NOT happy about it.

anyway, try the LRC simply because its a tremendously GRAPHIC and easily seen method of determining trend and s+r and try to team it with the s+r indicators i talk about --- in this way, you have a very visual idea of where the price is going, without all the lines and flip flops of indicators.

ONE warning about position trading --- you WILL face DRAWDOWNS, so be VERY careful with money management and number of trades open --- what works well is having two trades in either the SAME currency, or currencies that are moving opposite to each other, open that are trending in OPPOSITE directions, which creates a form of "self hedge" and protects your margin, but even if doing that, dont be a salami and go trading too large amounts for your equity or you will become just another stiff body in the "forex walk of misfortune"

enjoy and trade well

mp

Originally Posted by Shane

Hi mp...great thread!

[dpaterso]

Oy,

When are you going to 'mosey on over' to 'paradise lost' and 'dump' that 'Elfinore signature' on my thread (along with another 'pearl of wisdom' or two)???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[dpaterso]

Hmmm.

This looks like something I could 'sink my teeth into' while I'm waiting for my Wilder 'stuff' to generate it's 'kajillion' points (pips) on the daily timeframes!!!

Take a look HERE johnnykanoo:

Investor/RT Tour - Linear Regression

The possibilities are ENDLESS!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[dpaterso]

Oy,

Take a look at this excerpt (form the link that I posted above):

The following approximations offer a few rules of thumb for using the standard deviation settings:

• Plus or minus one standard deviation takes in 68.3% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)
• Plus or minus two standard deviations takes in 95.4% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)
• Plus or minus three standard deviations takes in 99.7% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)

For example, excursions of price more than 2 standard deviations above or below the regression line represent an unlikely event (less than 5% probable). Such excursions usually represent overbought or oversold conditions.

Now 'me' starts to think:

Could one of the standard devations be used for a stop loss??? I know mp does not use stop losses but could this indeed be a way ensure that the 'new trader' does not 'bleed out' if they're wrong???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[dobro]

Originally Posted by Shane

Hi mp...great thread!

I am currently building a strategy using a lot of the ideas outlined at nobrainertrades.com and I have been looking for a good simple directional/trend indicator. LR Channels could be exactly what I am looking for.

Looking forward to reading more of your posts...thanks heaps for sharing.

Shane:

I always learn something from your posts, here and elsewhere. I hope you will post your new strategy when it is ready as I know it will be thoughtful and a winner. d.

[mp6140]

been there bunches of times but got nothing to say until i know what your ideas are, and only time on weekends for that !

dont worry, sooner or later youll be asking me to "get the hell out of town and stop bothering me "

mp

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Oy,

When are you going to 'mosey on over' to 'paradise lost' and 'dump' that 'Elfinore signature' on my thread (along with another 'pearl of wisdom' or two)???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[mp6140]

be careful dale, cause standard deviations are based on percentages and the current market appears to have shyed away from true fibs and accepted s+r, at least from what I see happening (but I wear glasses, and my need my eyes looked at !)

honestly, in these days of such wide candle ranges, Im impressed with anyone who uses stop losses and DOESNT get consistently stopped out --- not because I dont use them, but because the range is just so huge, where does one SET a stop for it to be actually usefull ?

dont think i could even answer that one !

the LRC is a roadmap of what price is doing at the moment and where it is in the scheme of things --- it strongly suggests "destinations", but works well if you already have a hotel in mind !

enjoy and trade well

mp

kewl day today, huh ?

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Oy,

Could one of the standard devations be used for a stop loss??? I know mp does not use stop losses but could this indeed be a way ensure that the 'new trader' does not 'bleed out' if they're wrong???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[dpaterso]

Hello,

Well: 'just for fun' I've 'sat myself down' in front of the EUR/USD 5 minute chart with my 'newly fixed' LRC's (100 bars) and have already done a profitable trade i.e. went short at the line forming the upper channel and took profit at the LR line (middle line).

What I've 'figured' is this though:

I believe you do need a stop 'of sorts' (I just used the value of 2 x Wilder's CORRECTLY CALCULATED AND SMOOTHED ATR(7) at the time of opening the position). The stop NEVER gets moved BUT your TP gets adjusted to whatever the value of the LR line (middle line) is after the close of the current bar. Sometimes your profit target will increase and sometimes it will decrease (obviously) but at least there is a well defined exit point regardless (my 'exit strategies' with stuff like this and pivots have always been to 'hold on to the position until it either comes back to me or I can bleed no more)!!!

Another thought is to always trade with 'even' lots i.e. in multiples of two e.g. open a trade with two lots, TP one of them (one half of the position) at the LR line (middle line) and TP the other at the line that forms the opposite channel. If you don't get 'that lucky' then you simply get stopped out at whatever stop you've set by whatever method.

Turns out that MY LRC's are 'Raff Channels' by the way.

I now 'keenly' await the line forming the lower channel to be 'touched'!!! (I always feel more 'comfortable' going long i.e. going short never 'feels right' to me but I suppose this is a legacy of trading equities. NOW you know why my performance with LEHMAN was so 'stunning'. ME??? Short a stock??? NEVER!!! If ONLY I knew!!!)!!!

As with anything: WAITING for the setup is 'key' though (and a 'just a tad' frustrating if the truth be told)!!!

Don't get me wrong: I ain't 'betting the farm' on this (I have my Wilder 'stuff' for that) but it's (to coin your phrase) 'kewl' to have something ELSE to do than post 'inane messages' all of the show!!! HEY: this one trade paid for a bottle of Captain Morgan so I ain't complaining!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).