Please Help!! I thought this was a good trade! Chart included

[ctbasscatcher]

Attached is my chart from a trade i placed today But what happens in it seems to happen every time I made a trade. I see a nice resistance trend where all day it is bouncing off 1.16975. I see it approach the resistance line, there are 2 green candles with little movement before it, the moving ave crosses over and building momentum down, the RSI moves below 50, I make my trade and BOOM off it goes in the other direction until it hits my stoploss (1.1710).

And I mean it goes UP just enough to clip it too, then down it runs actually way past where my limit was set.

First can you look at the chart and tell me if I read it correctly and what you would have done different and 2nd this seems to happen often almost like "they" know what I'm doing and grab my money and run. Is that possible????

[virtecs]

as charting goes I think you read it right. I don't trade s/r levels so i'm not the best judge. But here's where you went wrong I think.

First, you're trading off the 1 minute USDCHF. I hate trading low time frames, but many people trade them well. I'd suggest going to a higher time frame but if not then we'll move on.

Did you look at higher time frames to get the general trend? Because except for recently the 1h and 4h's were trending up so I wouldn't have gone for a short trade even on the 1m.

It seems that many people who scalp off the min charts look to the 15/30 min or 1 hour for general trend and only scalp in that direction. Try using your rules but add the looking for the general trend and you should make better trades.

[ThePhoenix]

Attached is my chart from a trade i placed today But what happens in it seems to happen every time I made a trade. I see a nice resistance trend where all day it is bouncing off 1.16975. I see it approach the resistance line, there are 2 green candles with little movement before it, the moving ave crosses over and building momentum down, the RSI moves below 50, I make my trade and BOOM off it goes in the other direction until it hits my stoploss (1.1710).

And I mean it goes UP just enough to clip it too, then down it runs actually way past where my limit was set.

First can you look at the chart and tell me if I read it correctly and what you would have done different and 2nd this seems to happen often almost like "they" know what I'm doing and grab my money and run. Is that possible????

The first bounce is usually the best bounce. If you wait for too many bounces it's eventually going to break through.

Check the bounce on all the smaller time frames and see how many times it's already been tested.

[ctbasscatcher]

Virtecs, I did check the 5m and 15m and resistence looked good, but i will take your advice and trade more off those charts i think I'll have better success. If' you're trading off 1h & 4h charts how big of a stop loss spread are you putting on?

Phoenix, i like your point about "first bounce is usually the best bounce" that was the 4th bounce of the day.... i will keep my eyes open in the future!

[BeerMonster]

Not sure if you did read the charts right, a few thoughts;

If you're trading counter trend, I would look for a divergence or some sort of reversal pattern. You did get a crossover, but a meaningful divergence in the RSI didn't appear. Better to go with the trend?

Could it be that if you are focused on such short time frames you didn't notice a wider trend?

Finally, I would have said that is quite a wide stop for a day trade. I would have gone for maybe 20-30 pips at most.

Hope it helps, don't waste too much time worrying about it.

[virtecs]

Virtecs, I did check the 5m and 15m and resistence looked good, but i will take your advice and trade more off those charts i think I'll have better success. If' you're trading off 1h & 4h charts how big of a stop loss spread are you putting on?

Phoenix, i like your point about "first bounce is usually the best bounce" that was the 4th bounce of the day.... i will keep my eyes open in the future!

I'm not like the rest. I don't usually use any stops. They usually say to set the stop at the nearest swing high or swing low, which will make your stops bigger.

I back tested my method and tried to see what the maximum draw-down was before the trade either resumed or continued further negative. For me this is about 50 pips. Anything more and the trade is a dud.

[chubspips]

in looking at your chart posted on your first of this thread, I'm looking at your MACD, your support line, and your s/l. I think I might read that situation much differently than you did.

First, if you are below support, it isn't support any more, its resistance.

Second, because there is no identifiable trend on this chart, I don't really comprehend your choice of trades. You may want to remove the RSI from your M1 and try a CCI as it better identifies volume and direction.

Third, if you had taken the time to understand the MACD histogram a bit better, you would have seen that the position of your s/l is actually your entry point for the short.

I spend a lot of time in the chatroom available on the tool bar at the top of the "forum" page. If you would like to chat with me and some other respectable traders live, market open is usually a good time to catch people there. I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have there.

Good pippin,

Chubs

[mp6140]

Im a touch unhappy about not being able to see what currency pair this was (and im NOT gonna hunt all over by price) so please next time identify what pair you speak of so i can check on my charts !

NOW, i can see youre dealing with FXCM MICRO, and there has been much discussion concerning what appears to be "funny" activity on their part (not the higher priced accounts, which i like very much, but the micro ones)

the MACD is a fairly useless indicator for this type of trading as it is always behind the curve, and i would exchange your RSI for a 5/3/3 or 8/3/3 STOCHASTIC WITH a CCI to show overbought and oversold WITHIN the current move (which may not be the whole move, but WOULD have alerted you to the upside move about to happen --- maybe !)

ITS LIKE THIS ---- you see the stochastics start DOWN, but you see that the CCI is BOTTOMED (has NO more room down) and perhaps its STARTING UP --- this immediately tells you that there will be an UPMOVE BEFORE THE STOCHASTICS INDICATED DOWNMOVE, and so you are protected !

an alternative to the CCI (although i use both) is the "accumulation/distribution" indicator which seems much more intelligent than the CCI --- try BOTH and choose what you like, or be like me and use BOTH !

using stop losses on scalping plays is similar to using a football as a prophalactic ---- bad from a number of reasons --- first it takes you TIME to enter and thats wasted time for trading, and one finds that "trends" continue (or, the price RETURNS to the mean), which you found out once the price returned to where you wanted after being stopped out ! And once you LEARN your indicators (and lose the MACD) you will find much more success WITHOUT the sl, as the one minute price movement can get "funky" at times, but usally WILL hit exactly where you want, if you can wait it out ---- if i had done that trade i would have the original short position (well, i WOULDNT have gone short UNLESS i saw a bounce from resistance, so you jumped the gun a bit, which MAY have been assisted by FXCM) and then simply gone short AGAIN, once i saw the reversal coming up --- THIS WAY, even if you dont hit your original tp point, your second trade "averages out" the loser and either gives you a small profit, or makes your loss zero !

while one can go on forever on this, its really a matter of EXPERIENCE and LEARNING so that you can instinctively react to what "APPEARS" to be a BAD trade that is SIMPLY moving higher before dropping then you originally figured, and the stochastic and CCI combo will do that for you.

Knowing trends, so that you are not afraid to remain in what might look like a BAD trade is the most important thing there is --- if trading the one minute, look to the 5 minute for your trend or use the 15 min (NOT recommended in "whippy" conditions as it can and DOES alter trend within its time frame) for an "absolute" trend !

MOSTLY it comes down to knowing trend, understanding support and resistance, not bothering with stop losses on "scalping" plays and having a stronger stomach when things APPEAR to temporarilly move against you !

Its actually not a hard thing to do.

were they out to "get you ?" --- probably not, as stop hunting is usually done with a "group" of stops, and not just yours unless were dealing here with a few million lots, which is certainly NOT normal on a micro account, but remember "just because youre paranoid, doesnt mean they aint after you !" and proceed accordingly with FXCM MICRO !

ps -- besides teaching i also make the best bagels in new york !

enjoy and trade well

mp

Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!

Attached is my chart from a trade i placed today But what happens in it seems to happen every time I made a trade. I see a nice resistance trend where all day it is bouncing off 1.16975. I see it approach the resistance line, there are 2 green candles with little movement before it, the moving ave crosses over and building momentum down, the RSI moves below 50, I make my trade and BOOM off it goes in the other direction until it hits my stoploss (1.1710).

And I mean it goes UP just enough to clip it too, then down it runs actually way past where my limit was set.

[concept]

Good post MP, I think that helped me out as well with further insight!

Ive read from a few people that scalping on such low timeframes(1min) is pretty dangerous unless you know whats going on, have multiple lots and have your trading psychology(self discipline) in line?

With that being said, I dont know how many times you have traded with this method... but say it has a 70% success rate... out of 100 trades you theoretically should get 70 trades that are winners. The problem is when do those losers happen? Maybe its just bad luck for your system.

[mp6140]

Good post MP, I think that helped me out as well with further insight!

GREAT !

Ive read from a few people that scalping on such low timeframes(1min) is pretty dangerous unless you know whats going on, have multiple lots and have your trading psychology(self discipline) in line?

EXACTLY what you say (with some exception) --- no sense in my saying it since you wrote it just above ! NOW, the exception is if you trade WITH the trend because you find if you miss one particular trade on the one minute and the currency moves away from you, it will come home to roost a few minutes down the road ---- HONEST -- just watch and see, remembering that EVERYONE is playing the one minute for all its worth, but as time goes by they start trading the 5 minute and then finally, the 15 min before its time for a TRUE reversal of direction and if you are following the trend, the higher timeframes will become youre bosum buddy !

With that being said, I dont know how many times you have traded with this method... but say it has a 70% success rate... out of 100 trades you theoretically should get 70 trades that are winners. The problem is when do those losers happen? Maybe its just bad luck for your system.

well, i dont call it a "system" per se, simply one of the methods i use to protect myself from HEADFAKE ticks on a chart --- i simply wait till the SIGNALS say its a good trade, and not a candle color which could easily be a fake -- i also use a moving average crossover and patiently wait for a true cross trying NOT to anticipate !

Im afraid i have some very unhappy news for you, but my success rate is at the 100% rate on those trades as long as i dont get stupid and try to do a silly countertrade against trend, believing im invincible and can do anything i want ! (at that time, i am happy to get out at breakeven, although i will double down to save a loser)

i will also HOLD what appears to be a bad trade if i think a reversal is coming soon, and that the "poor" trade will be taken out on that move, although that tactic requires a decent amount of experience and guts !

enjoy and trade well

mp