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08-04-2009, 04:04 PM
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Well to your question I have to believe there is. I know by no means could trade by fundamentals...so much of it is way over my head...lol. I also have found that technical indicators do have their moments, but at some point will lose it. Now the risk for this thread is a barage of systems will flood it for you to consider..lol. However, in my almost 2 years of engrossing myself in this world, I'm now finding that there is an "in between", or the best of both worlds. What I have found is what is called harmonic trading which is another type of price action trading. It encompasses the historically repetiveness of how the masses react to certain ecomomic events (fundamentals) by the way of behaviour patterns which are measured by fibonacci numbers (technical). It is trading with an unbiased view which may be contrary to what all the "news" reports say. Most of us will never know how which news event will impact which market ...too much information, so we only care what patterns develop as a response in general that indicate an area where price will reverse...swing areas if you will. I quote: "In essence, when this mass perception can be quantified or "gauged," significant trade opportunities can be identified." Maybe your frustration is telling you that it's time to let go of your current system/methods...you've given it a fair go but it didn't hold water.... and try something new. You've got the live trading experience which is a big hurdle to succeed, but in the grand scheme of time, trading forex for a couple of years is really only getting your feet wet...lol Just don't give up 
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08-04-2009, 04:58 PM
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To get back to Tymen first thread, lets see some numbers some charts some winning and losing profit percentages,longest number of losing trades biggest drawdown on whatever method you are using.What has work best for you in the past, position trading,swing trading,day trading,scalping and in what market equities,currency,options,futures.Do you keep detailed records hand written in a book or do you use software for that.Do you set daily goals.How many losing trades will allow in a day or week before you decide to turn the computer off and take a couple days.Do you back test your methods how many trades back usually 100 or a 1000 trades what profit percentage will allow 60,70.80% or return on your churn of capital 2,5,10 percent.I like meat with my potatoes please.
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08-04-2009, 06:02 PM
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Hello AGAIN.
johnnykanoo: Nice to hear from you again (if nothing else: at least I've had a 'chat' with some of my old 'friends' because of this thread)!!! LOL!!! Well FIRST you HAVE hit ONE 'nail on the head'!!! There have been MANY times I've wanted to 'walk away' from this but I KNOW that I'd have regrets and until I can 'walk away' BELIEVING that there is NOTHING more that I could have done to make a success in this business: I simply cannot and will not do it EVEN IF I have to enter a 'demo competition' to WIN some capital!!! LOL!!! You mention 'price action' and 'support and resistance'. I've looked at (some) of this more than once. My problem (aside from a possible lack of understanding) is this: the trades appear to be very short in duration. Would that be a correct statement to be making? In other words: I would know where to get 'in' but it's the exits that confound me. With these types of systems: would I be correct in saying that you're NOT looking for trends? I think my 'mindset problem' with this type of trading is that I'm just so 'conditioned' to be trading an 'always in' system (always stop and reverse) that I simply cannot see 'price action for the trees'!!! LOL!!! Anyway: I've always heard good reports about the ATT thread as well as james16's threads so I'll 'mosey on over' very soon. Above all: thanks for the words of encouragement!!! Oskar: I've BEEN trading LIVE for two years and eight months now (well OK: I've been demo trading AGAIN for about the past three to four months trying to develop a DECENT and CONSISTENT trading 'regime' as it were so I guess the past three to four months don't really count). BUT this is WHY I started this thread this morning!!! After THIS LONG one would EXPECT to be showing consistent profits not COPIOUS amounts of losses. OK so let's narrow it down further: I'm the first person to admit that for the FIRST year I didn't know WHAT I was doing (in spite of THINKING that I DID)!!! LOL!!! Also: I believe I'm 'as near as damnit' to having a trading system that will work well BUT I'm ALSO very MUCH aware of the fact that it, like ALL the others, will have major 'issues' if price starts to trade in a range. The only DIFFERENCE is POSSIBLY the fact that my losses will be minimised but this DOES NOT detract from the fact that long periods COULD pass without showing any profit at all. And, maybe, I AM 'stirring the pot' here (unintentionally I might add). I believe that there is 'more too this' than my (whatever) li'l ol' trading system and my own profits or losses. There are a LOT of unanswered questions for me about 'the game as a whole'. And by the way: I'm GLAD you 'vented'!!! I get the (your) picture!!! LOL!!! And thank you!!! Sweet Pip: As ALWAYS in the past: I can count on you for some sound advice!!! You make a good point (about being possibly SWAMPED with a variety of trading systems to 'try out') so let me make sure this does not happen. The OBJECT of me starting this thread is NOT to find YET ANOTHER 'technical trading system' or to find out what everyone else is doing. I have 'technical trading systems' 'coming out of my ears' (I've even LITERALLY DREAMED UP some of my own). The PROBLEM (so far as I'm concerned) is that ALL of these systems WILL FAIL at some point AND BADLY. I guess what I REALLY saying is this (to everyone): BE CAREFUL with a 'technical trading system' that you may be using ESPECIALLY if it's working well NOW. Since the beginning of THIS year: some of these very simple trading systems could not have done anything else BUT make money. BUT: would those SAME trading systems have made money EVERY YEAR (and I DO NOT mean $100 per year either) for, let's say, the past FIVE years. Back to Sweet Pip: I guess that MAYBE it's having that 'best of both worlds' that I aspire to. I have to note that support and resistance has been mentioned MORE than once here. Maybe I DO NOT understand this as well as I think I do. Maybe it's time to 're-visit' this. That said: when I 'deem' support or resistance to be at a certain level you can 'bet your bottom dollar' that if I place a stop there then price will 'barrel through' as if it did not exist!!! SO FAR: THAT is my experience with support and resistance!!! LOL!!! It was nice to hear from you and thank you for your input. Now Letseethepips: RECORDS!!! You want RECORDS??? It's taken me TWO YEARS to implement MONEY MANAGEMENT and you want RECORDS now??? ONE THING AT A TIME!!! LOL!!! (Only joking). But no: I don't have trading records at all (well: not the type that YOU are talking about anyway) and therefore no statistics for the various systems that I've used in the past. MOST of the systems I've 'paper traded' using the data that is current in my platform (five years worth). Admittedly: the only figure I calculate is the net profit at the end of the five years. If that's dismal: then to me it's a bad system. I do also note the maximum drawdown and the maximum number of consecutive losing trades. I SHALL post some charts as promised BUT let me re-iterate my point (made above): it's NOT a trading system I'm after. It's 'something else' (and maybe I'm not even sure what it is right now). It's an 'understanding' that I'm after. A 'WHY' (if that makes sense). Put another way: with ALL of the trading systems I've used in the past (and even my CURRENT 'offering'): EVEN A MONKEY could trade them (come to think of it a MONKEY would PROBABLY do a better job because he'd not be second guessing the system all of the time). It's ALMOST 'trade by number' ('paint by number') (my systems)??? But there's more to this business I believe and it's 'that thing' that I'm after. I don't know if you could call it an 'edge' or a 'deeper understanding' or what you would call it. 'That thing'. I'm not explaining myself very well here I know. But THANK YOU TOO for you interest shown!!! Regards, Dale.
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08-04-2009, 08:03 PM
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Dale,
I would just like to second JohnnyKanoo's suggestion that you check out James16 thread. A look at ATT and why not Nial Fuller can't hurt either. I think you may find that James16 (Jim) almost speaks directly to you and your situation. As I understand it, he once was almost exactly where you are now. Try to unlearn your indicator thinking, the always in approach, and clear your mind. I mean - really clear it! Do what Jim says - Start demo trading on weeklies and dailies and don't even think about moving on until you're able to do that for at least three consecutive months. It's right at the first post of the thread, I'm sure you'll see the sun again if you choose to switch paths. As for the fundamental part, I've decided that it's just over my head and therefor I have the same view as JohnnyKanoo - it's already priced in. Good luck Dale!
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08-04-2009, 08:16 PM
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we look for profit in "trouble areas" ill post a chart to show you what I mean. Dale when you look at this chart start with the pinbar that is in the beige box than read the other comments.  this trade could have lasted for as little as a day or it could have gone for a month. that is up to you. alot of people "scalp" the daily chart with this method. I prefer to hold onto a winner but it takes time to gain confidence in this method but once you see it in action you will be addicted!!! Look at your favorite chart dow mini dow mini russel forex whatever. look for these pinbars and see for yourself. they are very high probability when you trade then off of swing highs or swing lows. The beuty of it is this is so simple to learn and to implement and you don't really need to focus on fundamentals at all. Eventually you may want to take a daily set up or a 4h setup then drill down to a 15m to manage the trade or you may want to use this type of price analysis to trade smaller timeframes. I will say this the daily and the 4h are very reliable when you go lower it is less of a high probability. By the time one trade equals a whole years salary why would you want to settle for anything less than an a+ setup? Sorry for the long rant im just excited coz i know this method works!!! Im glad to see your spirits are up and I hope to see you over in the j16 thread talk to you later, john Last edited by johnnykanoo; 08-04-2009 at 08:21 PM. Reason: some clarification
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08-04-2009, 08:29 PM
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btw i second what macygver says. jim did go thorugh years and years of hell. he would save and take his and his familys savings and he would trade them trying to make his system work. He lost alot of money and by now as a 25+ year veteran it is in his heart to teach people. His way of getting a better spot in heaven I don't know but i will say this. he is very sincere and decent and he will help you so you can move into profitability especialy in the long run.
one final thought you could use his price analysis in any type of system that you use because no matter what price is price but i am certain he prefers an nice "clean" approach that is nearly 100% price analysis.
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08-05-2009, 12:55 AM
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Hello Dale
Good to see you around again and as always, is great to read through your posts (though the length of them is distracting me from my trading  ). Great to see some top babypips people on here as well.Look, I am still new at this and can only tread water at present and break even. I'm a long, long way off from giving my boss the two fingered salute and doing this for a living. God, I'd love to flip the bird at my boss so much, I feel its one of my goals that keps me going in times of trouble! I got to second on what most people have said here and I'll try and list where I think you could improve things. I've known you for a good while so please dont feel I'm taking the piss or talking down to you. I just want to see you successful. 1, You got to keep record of your trades. All of them. Just snap a couple of screen shots and put in a power point or something. or even just draw some doodles in a daily dairy and make a few notes on why you entered. This will do a couple of things. first, you can look back at all the screw ups and sometimes when I look back I can see clearly that I never should have been in. Also, the process of doing this will keep you from over trading, as sometimes I cant be bothered to write in the book, so it keeps me out of those so/so trades. 2, Money management, Small positions, Open at Oanda or something. Risk no more than 2% per trade (I'm using 1% just now). No more than a total of 6% loss can be on the table at one time. So that's 3 trades at 2% or 6 at 1%. 3, Keep in demo until you can get 3 months in a row of consistent profit. i'm doin this now, advised by James16. 4, Throw away indicators. Forget about entering trades based on indicator signals. You got to have discretion and think "Is this a worthwhile set up? Dont just take a trade because your system says so. 5, I second the advice and comments given about james16 and price action. try to focus on that for a while, and not indicators. 6, Turn off Bloomberg or CNBC. Yes, I love Betty Lui and Mandy Drurie as well, but they got to go man. Watch some Nat Geo or ESPn or something. Or get some music on. All this bombardment of news and opnions was screwing me up. Ok doke, this post is almost as long as one of yours now so I'm going to sign off for now. Hear from you soon buddy Cheers Boca
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08-05-2009, 01:38 AM
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Consolidating the responses to your initial post, what are your thoughts about the way ahead in summary form, Dale?
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08-05-2009, 03:27 AM
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Hi Dale,
Thank you for your explanation and kind words. I have misread your post. Quote:
Understanding gold and silver made me understand the mechanism at work in the so called "financial world" and so called "markets" a.k.a. FOREX, equities, commodities ect. Quote:
For instance: On FOREX we buy and sell FIAT NOT money or currencies. The term FIAT means... Government issued by fiat (Latin for "let it be" or "so be it" - money simply ordered into existence by the sovereign). A 'usd, eur, chf, gbp, cad ect.' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely computer entries. Once you've grasped that concept and fully understood it's consequences not only on FOREX but in all aspects of live you'll look at your trading methodology a different way and trade differently because it changes your thinking on how you trade. I have the impression this is the kind of understanding you're after. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Take care, cas Last edited by cas; 08-05-2009 at 03:31 AM.
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